EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

I think Teddy has the right mindset. I would rather be conservative like him. Don't take COs words so literally. There is some demand destruction. But i wouldn't fool myself into thinking that the movement upto Jan 09 is all due to demand destruction. Personally I believe CO is making an excuse to take a large intake.

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Originally Posted by imdeng

Teddy has always been the voice of reason - he stayed conservative and data driven last summer even when everyone was predicting movement beyond 07/07. He eventually was proved right. Now, we are in fuzzy subjective decision making territory and Teddy/Gurus can only provide us with the relevant data points and potential interpretations - what CO will do with data available to him is anybody's guess.

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Guys, thanks for your kind words and support, I have always tried to be reasonable based on numbers. Today’s bulletin is great news for every one of us especially for those who became current it’s a great feeling. The movement though is definitely in the territory of discretion even though there may have been more destruction than thought off or HR 3012 looks like CO has made his call based on his own discretion and judgment. Only the new inventory can bring us true insight in reality. With discretion reigning supreme as of now nothing can be said of what may happen next month, good luck to everyone. Let’s wait and watch and hope for the best now for everyone who is on the cusp of being current.

Spec - the 2007 DD is only for applicants after 07/07 right? People before 07/07 will have the benefit of EAD - so their DD should be lower.

I think the term Demand Destruction is misleading since it only points to people leaving US and going home (India/China). While that has surely happened, that can not explain the extent of reduction in 485 demand compared to PERM filings that is being implied in the VB. Other significant factors are people changing jobs and filing new PERMs and spouses working with their own PERM filings. All of this results in lower PERM to 485 ratio - maybe just call it PERM Conversion Ratio or something (suggestions?). Our accepted wisdom has been a PERM Conversion Ratio of 1.0 - I wonder how much we need to adjust it lower.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Outside of CO moving dates forward just to create future Demand, it is also worth looking at how many people might actually get approved in FY2012 based on increased Demand Destruction.

The following table shows the effect for different Demand Destruction rates and different levels of SOFAD. All dates assume 3k Porting, 70% EB2, 20% Denial rate etc.

[FONT="Courier New"]------------------ % Destruction (PD2007/PD2008) --------------------
SOFAD -- 15%/10% ---- 25%/20% ---- 35%/30% ---- 45%/40% ---- 55%/50%

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You can file on or after Jan 01, 2012. You can file after Jan 31st as well if the dates do not retrogress beyond your PD. In Jan 1st week the next VB will be out and you will know whether Jan 31st is your deadline or whether you can go into Feb for filing. Although, given the fluid situation - just get in as soon as possible.

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Originally Posted by codesmith

Thanks for reply..Very basic doubt.. just want to confirm.
I can file for 485 between 01 Jan 2012 to 31 Jan 2012 .
Is it correct ?

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Originally Posted by immitime

I understand that there are people against HR 3012, because this bill have bi partisan support, both the parties (Republicans and Democrats) won't leave it easily, Both want to show something to people during this election (with little salt and pepper!) There are lot of backdoor negoatiations happening. Sen.Grassley is a nay sayer and a "Holder" of the bills in the senate, so we can expect a positive outcome within 3 to 4 weeks at least and 3012 becomes law this year itself. This is the only "HOPE" EB-3 India have now. No one in the world can say that it will become Law. but chances are not dim!

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Backdoor negotiations yeah right !!! (Wink !!!!!). Proof is in the pudding and will wait til teh oudding is in hand before believing it.
Just to let you know that your post has not generated even 0.00000001 % hopoe in me or other EB3 indians....
Appreciate the effort though ...

I agree w you.

The sudden jump could be result of demand destruction or HR3012 or both. Honestly I just don't have visibility what is more true.

The next 485 inventory will tell us what is what. My gut feel is that this is a combination of both plus a third factor that building pipeline only for one year never made any sense to me. I would at least have 18 months of pipeline. So its possible that that's what he is doing.

For all the talk about demand destruction - i would be really surprised if people who had to abandon their GC process AFTER labor approval are 20% or more relative to GC.

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

My question on this theory is then why did he first move to 15th March 2008, and why he made a sudden jump to 1st Jan 2009? Why not move in increments of 4 to 5 months just to gauge the demand in those intervals as he seemed to be doing initially?

HR 3012 is definitely at play here I think. They could simply stick to their 4-5 month movement formula, and send out green cards in QSP...no retrogression and a much cleaner approach.

I think some more DD happened, but the CO has definitely paid attention to HR 3012. I don't see anything happening to HR 3012 in December, so I believe February bulletin will show another movement - it could be the final movement, or if DD continues to be higher, one more in March. I stick to my theory that the *worst* outcome of this movement is that the DOS retrogresses and uses the entire FY 2013 to give green cards without risking 2 year EAD renewals. I look at the maximum demand intake from the perspective of that 2 year window. Correct me if I am wrong.

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Guys,
Any idea where it might retrogress to? I cannot apply this month (7/08 PD) as I plan to get married next summer, around May to Jun timeframe. Do you guys anticpate retrogression to be really bad?

-Vik

Teddy - even I envy your ability to source and analyze information in very balanced manner & Spec's ability to crunch numbers and analyze legal jargon and then convey it in a simple manner! Glad to see folks getting current. Even getting EAD will be a big relief.

I just wish he had made the entire category current and then retro'd.

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Guys, thanks for your kind words and support, I have always tried to be reasonable based on numbers.

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I think it was discussed some time back that making the category current is a bad idea since that will generate a lot of concurrent filings from EB2IC folks. It is more manageable for DoS/USCIS to move the PD to near-current but not actually current.

I can not believe that I have a shot (even though a slim one) to be current in next two VBs (Aug-09 PD). I hope CO continues in his mad ways for a few more months.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

I just wish he had made the entire category current and then retro'd.

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Originally Posted by imdeng

Spec - the 2007 DD is only for applicants after 07/07 right? People before 07/07 will have the benefit of EAD - so their DD should be lower.

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imdeng,

That's correct. Demand Destruction for PD2007 only takes into account those who could not have filed in 2007.

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

Mesan, most big law firms file in the third or 4th week. It goes thru various layers of para legals, attorney reviews and HR back forth. An example is fragomen that has done so with many of my friends. They are not bad but just huge.

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You are right, i have not filed yet, my lawyers are still waking up and my company cuts checks so i have no control. I m done long back with meds etc.

I think folks who work directly with lawyers have a greater chance of filing on first day.

SOmeone had mentione before correctly that meds and all is ok lawyers take time.

Congrats to all who are current.

It will be interesting to see how demand data chart changes in the necxt few bulletins.

This is going in the same direction of 2007 though not exactly. I have seen that time been referred to fiasco but many people especialluy EB3 got to file and got EAD that reduced some pain.

EB2I still needs HR 3012. With this kind of large movements in EB2 India and China, retrogression is inevitable and looming over. Yes, larger demand destruction seems to have influenced this huge movement to some extent. But I am certain that the dates will retrogress and will be stalled for sometime (at least for the rest of the FY2012). So, EB2I should not get too high and start flying because this movement is transitional and not permanent.

Anybody who files in EB2I today will still have a wait time of at least 4 years and that has been pretty consistent. Moreover, EB2I is completely spill-over dependent so in future, if the demand destruction is less and if the spill-over is low from EB1, EB4, EB5 and EB2ROW then basically EB2I backlog is going to grow for sure.

This bill still needs lot of support from EB2 and EB3 India and China.

Think this way imdeng - in a year USCIS processes millions of 485s or equivalent forms.
EB is just 140K of that. By making things current they will build solid visibility to future demand.

However, the problem is not their ability to process, the problem is political resistance to making it current. Some senators think that giving an EAD is same as giving a GC. Which is kind of true. But then today the whole 485 has lost its purpose. Theoretically 485 filing is only to adjust the status of an already eligible person proven beyond doubt. Making that person wait juts because a visa number is not available is stupid. It goes contrary to the economic sense behind it.

in fact when the 140 has already proved the economic benefit behind a GC application, the concept of a "VISA NUMBER" itself doesn't make sense.

Would you agree?

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Originally Posted by imdeng

I think it was discussed some time back that making the category current is a bad idea since that will generate a lot of concurrent filings from EB2IC folks. It is more manageable for DoS/USCIS to move the PD to near-current but not actually current.

I can not believe that I have a shot (even though a slim one) to be current in next two VBs (Aug-09 PD). I hope CO continues in his mad ways for a few more months.

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

My question on this theory is then why did he first move to 15th March 2008, and why he made a sudden jump to 1st Jan 2009? Why not move in increments of 4 to 5 months just to gauge the demand in those intervals as he seemed to be doing initially?

HR 3012 is definitely at play here I think. They could simply stick to their 4-5 month movement formula, and send out green cards in QSP...no retrogression and a much cleaner approach.

I think some more DD happened, but the CO has definitely paid attention to HR 3012. I don't see anything happening to HR 3012 in December, so I believe February bulletin will show another movement - it could be the final movement, or if DD continues to be higher, one more in March. I stick to my theory that the *worst* outcome of this movement is that the DOS retrogresses and uses the entire FY 2013 to give green cards without risking 2 year EAD renewals. I look at the maximum demand intake from the perspective of that 2 year window. Correct me if I am wrong.

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Sports, First of all congrats to you and family

If HR 3012 played here in advancing dates on EB-2, why can't CO do at least half of the dates in EB-3 India. I understand most of the EB-3 India applied 485, but if they are so sure that HR 3012 become Law, why not EB-3 India? just a thought.

So I strongly feel EB-2 have lesser demand and so they increased the date is it not?;)

See the standard explanation after the VB below.

D. CHINA-MAINLAND BORN AND INDIA EMPLOYMENT-BASED SECOND PREFERENCE VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS

The China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date has been advanced at a rapid rate in recent months. As previously noted, this action was intended to generate significant levels of new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) offices. USCIS has reported that the rate of new filings is currently far below that which they had anticipated, prompting an even more aggressive movement of the cut-off date for January and possibly beyond. While this action greatly increases the potential for an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year, it also provides the best opportunity to utilize all numbers available under the annual limit.

I agree whole-heartedly Q. I believe any rational person will agree that an approved 140 should automatically result in a 485 filing and EAD. The artificial wait has no economic rationale.

There was some argument about why it makes sense for DoS/USCIS to make PD almost-current vs. making is current. Anyways - its doesn't matter. We have had good movements past few months - hopefully it continues forward full speed and hopefully HR-3012 happens and makes the plight of EB2IC/EB3IC more manageable.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Think this way imdeng - in a year USCIS processes millions of 485s or equivalent forms.
EB is just 140K of that. By making things current they will build solid visibility to future demand.

However, the problem is not their ability to process, the problem is political resistance to making it current. Some senators think that giving an EAD is same as giving a GC. Which is kind of true. But then today the whole 485 has lost its purpose. Theoretically 485 filing is only to adjust the status of an already eligible person proven beyond doubt. Making that person wait juts because a visa number is not available is stupid. It goes contrary to the economic sense behind it.

in fact when the 140 has already proved the economic benefit behind a GC application, the concept of a "VISA NUMBER" itself doesn't make sense.

Would you agree?

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The current movement in EB2IC is for gathering inventory only - they are not being allotted visa numbers right now. EB3IC already has a large inventory thanks to 07/07 - so the situation does not apply there. EB3I PD will not move beyond the 1 week/month speed until HR-3012 actually becomes a law. However, once that happens, EB3I is going to fly.

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Originally Posted by immitime

If HR 3012 played here in advancing dates on EB-2, why can't CO do at least half of the dates in EB-3 India. I understand most of the EB-3 India applied 485, but if they are so sure that HR 3012 become Law, why not EB-3 India? just a thought.

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Great News folks! Congrats to all who are current with this bulletin. I guess time to run around to get all the necessary documentation ready. I have a strong feeling the dates might retrogress in the next bulletin given this large intake.

Maybe its a timing co-incidence, but things started working out in the last 4-5 months since we started following Q's forum. Isn't it time Q started forums on various other aspects of life :)

OMG..I couldn't believe the movement when I saw the VB this morning. CO covered the rest of 2008 in one fell sweep! Congratulations to everyone who became current! This GC thing is so hard on families sometimes..I hope this brings relief to at least more than a few people.

Thanks to all the Gurus and number crunchers...you continue to bring tremendous clarity to the whole process and yes, I envy your way with numbers too (It would have really helped at my previous job).

Sportsfan, good luck to you on your move to India - it is very admirable how you are doing this for your family!

Rightly said, H.R. 3012 is the solution to EB-3. Campaign as much as possible and have folks reach out to local senators to show our strength. imdeng has a pre-done letter that can be modified/used. It just took me a minute to send out the letters.

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Originally Posted by essenel

This is why we need to continue campaigning for H.R. 3012 at full steam.

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Yep, all we needed at the doctor was a photocopy of the passport

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Originally Posted by codesmith

My son's passport is sent to Indian consulate for extension (he's india born).
Can I take doctor's appointment without having his passport. I do have photocopy of his passport.

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I am not sure how it works, but can't you apply for your I-485 now and travel with AP and apply for your spouse at some point

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Originally Posted by geevikram

Guys,
Any idea where it might retrogress to? I cannot apply this month (7/08 PD) as I plan to get married next summer, around May to Jun timeframe. Do you guys anticpate retrogression to be really bad?

-Vik

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Can you please point me to location thread
for all the steps/docs required for 485 filling ?
Thanks

You would want to be married when you file 485 so that you can file for your wife as a dependent as well. Once GC is issued to you, GC for wife will fall under FB, which is a whole lot of mess you don't want to get into.

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Originally Posted by tometukuri

I am not sure how it works, but can't you apply for your I-485 now and travel with AP and apply for your spouse at some point

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No matter what the movement is, thanks to Q, Teddy, Nishant, Veni, Spec, Kanmani & crew for your inputs & analysis on the subject.

Hi Guys, Firstly Congrats everyone who got current. I was super happy to see the news this morning that I am current. My PD is Nov 2008. I had a question for the Guru's. I am planning to travel to India from Dec 29th - Jan 29th 2012. Does this movement mean that I have to effectively cancel my trip all together? Or is there a way I can file and then leave or try to salvage some portion of my planned trip?

Thanks,

My Priority date is Oct 2008. However, I just changed jobs couple of months back and still in the process of reapplying perm :-((

I am happy for all the rest of the folks here who are current. Good luck.

When date suddenly jumps some ungrateful folks forget how much time and effort these brilliant people have put in to help others.

And CO can move PD as per his wish, but he can't issue more visas. I think Gurus will still be on the spot when it comes to get actual GC in hand.

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Originally Posted by aary09

No matter what the movement is, thanks to Q, Teddy, Nishant, Veni, Spec, Kanmani & crew for your inputs & analysis on the subject.

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Originally Posted by tometukuri

Great News folks! Congrats to all who are current with this bulletin. I guess time to run around to get all the necessary documentation ready. I have a strong feeling the dates might retrogress in the next bulletin given this large intake.

Maybe its a timing co-incidence, but things started working out in the last 4-5 months since we started following Q's forum. Isn't it time Q started forums on various other aspects of life :)

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Haha haha...thats a good observation! How about we start researching and predicting lottery drawings? ;)

Congrats to all those who are current. I think its about time I change my signature. Hope HR 3012 goes through so our EB3IC friends get justice.

Hi All,

I am a silent follower of this forum, I visit this forum at least once a day since 4 months.....
I became current today my PD is 07/14/2008.
This thread helped me a lot... for gathering the information of how the whole GC procedure is and this forum is very good at predictions.
I've not been to India since 5 years as I am on H1..
So I guess within 6 months, I may get my EAD and Advance payrole by which I can travel to India... oo ohhhooooo

I would like to Thank each and every contributor of this forum. You are doing a Great job

I wish GudLuck to Everyone.....

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Originally Posted by PD2008AUG25

When date suddenly jumps some ungrateful folks forget how much time and effort these brilliant people have put in to help others.

And CO can move PD as per his wish, but he can't issue more visas. I think Gurus will still be on the spot when it comes getting GC in hand.

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That is so true. So far all Gurus have been pretty much up to the mark in making calculated predictions. We are now in the zone of an unknown demand where CO is making huge movements with whatever data he has on his hand to generate demand. It does not mean everyone till December 31st, 2008 will get GCs. Gurus don't have a crystal ball and whatever data they have is limited. No one including Mr. CO himself, accurately knows what the demand destruction is, what is the exact percentage of porting, what is the exact level of duplicate PERM filings. Obviously there will be some predictions which will go wrong when it comes to visa bulletin movements. But as far as getting the GC in hand is concerned, predictions of Gurus are hitting bullseye more than 90 percent of time. Moreover, this is a blog to bring clarity to GC process. This is not a game or a competition for making predictions. I hope those ungrateful folks who are bashing Q, Spec, Veni, Teddy, Nishant etc. can understand this. Keep up the good work folks. I want you to know that your work is highly appreciated.

Any prediction of March 6th 2009 EB-I becoming current in the coming VB?

All,

Long time follower and first-time poster here. First of all thank you to Q for creating this forum and to all the other gurus and contributors. Visiting this forum and following all the predictions and calculations has become a daily ritual for me ever since I stumbled upon it a few months ago.


I am in EB2-I and my PD is April 6, 2009. With this huge surge in EB2-IC movement for the January bulletin, I am now only 3 months away and cautiously optimistic about my chances in the next couple of months. I have a question regarding my immigration situation and am hoping to get some insight from members who have either been through or heard of similar experience. My wife changed her status from H4 to F1 a few months ago and started on her Masters in this fall semester. I have heard and read in a lot of forums that F1 is a "non-immigrant intent" visa. I am worried that, when the time comes for us to file for 485 (hopefully soon), our application might run into rough weather since my wife is on F1 and not H4. Can someone throw some light on this and suggest the best course of action for our situation?

Thank you.

I totally agree with you. Gurus like Teddy, Spec are not in line like many of us. They still spend time doing analysis for us, and kept our expectations realistic. I started looking at this thread about 8 months ago, since then i almost never missed a day without browsing this thread. Big thanks to gurus, and all those who conributing to this thread. I can say this thread has the best possible collective information online for EB2IC folks.

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Originally Posted by aary09

No matter what the movement is, thanks to Q, Teddy, Nishant, Veni, Spec, Kanmani & crew for your inputs & analysis on the subject.

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Originally Posted by Jonty Rhodes

That is so true. So far all Gurus have been pretty much up to the mark in making calculated predictions. We are now in the zone of an unknown demand where CO is making huge movements with whatever data he has on his hand to generate demand. It does not mean everyone till December 31st, 2008 will get GCs. Gurus don't have a crystal ball and whatever data they have is limited. No one including Mr. CO himself, accurately knows what the demand destruction is, what is the exact percentage of porting, what is the exact level of duplicate PERM filings. Obviously there will be some predictions which will go wrong when it comes to visa bulletin movements. But as far as getting the GC in hand is concerned, predictions of Gurus are hitting bullseye more than 90 percent of time. Moreover, this is a blog to bring clarity to GC process. This is not a game or a competition for making predictions. I hope those ungrateful folks who are bashing Q, Spec, Veni, Teddy, Nishant etc. can understand this. Keep up the good work folks. I want you to know that your work is highly appreciated.

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i think this forum is an excellen example of, if you would like to believe, best wishes, or goodluck or positive vibe or anything you may want to call rubbed on to each other. think of the last 2-3 months, the number of people getting current only increased.

I would suggest those who are current to make sure and file, no need to panic but file for sure.

If CO sticks to his "and beyond" comment in the VB, you should be current in the next month. However, nobody knows CO's thought process so I would say a 50-50 chance. Maybe a little better than that.

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Originally Posted by mrhyderabad

Any prediction of March 6th 2009 EB-I becoming current in the coming VB?

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my wife was on f1 when we filed our 485.

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Originally Posted by enigma

All,

Long time follower and first-time poster here. First of all thank you to Q for creating this forum and to all the other gurus and contributors. Visiting this forum and following all the predictions and calculations has become a daily ritual for me ever since I stumbled upon it a few months ago.


I am in EB2-I and my PD is April 6, 2009. With this huge surge in EB2-IC movement for the January bulletin, I am now only 3 months away and cautiously optimistic about my chances in the next couple of months. I have a question regarding my immigration situation and am hoping to get some insight from members who have either been through or heard of similar experience. My wife changed her status from H4 to F1 a few months ago and started on her Masters in this fall semester. I have heard and read in a lot of forums that F1 is a "non-immigrant intent" visa. I am worried that, when the time comes for us to file for 485 (hopefully soon), our application might run into rough weather since my wife is on F1 and not H4. Can someone throw some light on this and suggest the best course of action for our situation?

Thank you.

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Congrats to everyone.
I am little worried with this movement. With the help of guru's here, we have an insight into PERM data on yearly basis. The total demand data so far might take the whole year GC's.

For a senator( who may not look into the details of pending applications or demand data), I hope this movement(Jan 2009) doesn't give a wrong impression that EB-2 Indian only has to wait for 2.5 years to get GC. :)

The CO has been true to his word that he gave on 26th October. He said dates would move to atleast 1 MAr 08 and the COD moved to 15th Mar.....he had mentioned that there will be movement in Jan and Feb bulletin and that has also come true as far as Jan VB is concerned....

In the VB he says there isnt enough demand....maybe he is saying the truth....

i personally dont buy the theory that he is moving the dates under some influence of HR3012. I think he knows better.....

to build a pipeline....yes that's a good enough reason....and he has been open about it.....

i think we are guilty of trying to second guess him everytime he says something......

By the way....the demand data has still not been published this month.....isnt it STRANGE that VB came out before the demand data....

The news is yet to sink in! Feeling numb (no emotions) as of now!!!

After reading some posts regarding "out of status" couple of months back, found out my wife could have an issue (while changing her status from H1B to H4 back in 2009). After consulting attorney and gathering proper information, decide the best option to preempt any issues with AOS is for her to travel out and return back. For this, she is traveling to India (made all the arrangements just two days back), get her H4 stamp and return back on 30th Dec.

BANG came the news with today's VB - I'm current (July 9th). As soon as we got the news - pulled out the Doc list online and started calling - Wife managed to get her medical appointment straight away (done!) and she needs to check back with the doc's office after 48hrs on Sunday @9.30am. She is flying out at 12.30 the same day!!!! She also fixed my appointment for Monday.

Hoping her trip to India and H4 stamping at Chennia on 15th Dec would be a smooth sail!

She is planning to take up a job on H1B as soon as she returns back (have the offer in hand). Will there be any complications for her to convert to H1B soon after applying for I-485 (complications in the context of I-485)? I don't think neither she nor her employer would want to wait until she gets her EAD!!!

I was looking for this day since a long time!!! But funny - nothing seems to have changed in my life with this news!!!!! Been in US since 1997 (had to go back to India for a couple of years in between).... First 6 yrs - never wanted to apply for GC - infact one of my employers force me into applying Labor back in 2000 and got it approved - I did not follow it up to file I-140.... Looking back - I feel I was very foolish to think everything would be the same!!!!

Things seem to be falling in place on their own at the right time. Thanks to you all guys on this forum - especially the fab4 (Q/V/S/T) for everything.