Discussion On The Politics of Immigration Reform (Comprehensive Or Otherwise)

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/p...eform/3000575/

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Unlike shutdown, GOP says Democrats must bend on immigration

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"I look forward to the next venture, which is making sure we do immigration reform," Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., said late Wednesday.

"Good luck," said Rep. Trey Gowdy, R-S.C., who chairs the House immigration committee.

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Also Businessweek has a fantastic article on Tea party's Pyrrhic victory

http://www.businessweek.com/articles...h-price#r=most popular

yes this hurts the repubs big time ..they will lose the house in 2014 ....but make no mistake they will not give an inch on CIR .Also the Debt ceiling fight is just postponed not finished....Dec Jan we will see a repeat of this

It is purely my opinion that CIR will have a chance only in late 2014 after repubs lose significant number of seats.....

Lost in the afterglow of the victory is this fact..

http://swampland.time.com/2013/10/17...e-for-default/

144 House Republicans voted against the bill last night to raise the debt ceiling and reopen the government.

144 members of the house were ready to take Usa to the brink of economic recession just because they beleive in something else...


This is the kind of crazy lunatics ....and Boehner hides behind the Hastert rule...It took a crisis as large as default to get him to compromise at the 11th minute...

Also debt celing is not yet resolved....so rinse/repeat/rinse...

I am of the firm opinion only after the house is lost to the repubs in 2014 CIR has a chance....

You're so right !

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Originally Posted by gcseeker

144 members of the house were ready to take Usa to the brink of economic recession just because they beleive in something else...

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http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/obama...ry?id=20603324

Obama picks an attorney to DHS job as replacement for Napalitano.. Doesn't it forebode some message to Republicans :)

Anyone who thinks that republicans will lose in in midterm 2014 elections is drinking Kool-Aid.

here are the reasons

1) young folks mostly never vote in mid term elections. They dont care much if there isnt a presidential race involved. only old folks and conservative folks care about mid term elections.

2) with the current district draw up, most republican congressmen are never under threat from democrats, only fellow republicans. Hence they try to be more conservative so that
they dont get piped by other republicans in primary.

3) Dont trust CNN, MSNBC etc. they take pulse of citizens residing in urban areas but not rural areas. So the rage against republicans for shutting down government would just be limited to the liberal pockets

4) citizens support immigration but would not consider it a priority. Even debt ceiling would not rank high on the list. The folks who mostly vote in the mid term elections
are ideologists who can be made to vote against their interests (like a homeless guy who badly needs health insurance, but would oppose affordable care act because someone said it is bad for him )

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Originally Posted by seattlet

2) with the current district draw up, most republican congressmen are never under threat from democrats, only fellow republicans. Hence they try to be more conservative so that
they dont get piped by other republicans in primary.

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seattlet - of all the reasons you listed - this one is the most potent one and that itself is the reason why GOP is losing the voters in the middle. So yes most of the folks you mention above will easily retain their seats. But gerrymandering with the districts is not yet perfected to the level where all republican seats are safe. So it is possible that dems might win over the house. I do not know if they will but I am just saying they just might given the whole fiasco.

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Originally Posted by gcseeker

I am of the firm opinion only after the house is lost to the repubs in 2014 CIR has a chance....

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I feel the same way. Any CIR will only pass if both houses and President are democratic. Any Legal-only or piecemeal reform will only pass if both houses and President are republican. Unfortunately for us, neither of these are predicted in near future.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

seattlet - of all the reasons you listed - this one is the most potent one and that itself is the reason why GOP is losing the voters in the middle. So yes most of the folks you mention above will easily retain their seats. But gerrymandering with the districts is not yet perfected to the level where all republican seats are safe. So it is possible that dems might win over the house. I do not know if they will but I am just saying they just might given the whole fiasco.

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If Immigration reform has to pass it has to pass before the next election. If they do do not tackle it Immigration reform has very small chance of gaining traction since campaign for presidential primaries would start. If at all anything has to be done it has to be now.

After healthcare, CIR is Obama's priority, but without a dem congress CIR seems difficult. I don't even know if a bill such as CIR that has passed senate but not house dies if not taken up for a vote in a certain time frame or whether it continues to exist for eternity in a limbo.

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Originally Posted by druvraj

If Immigration reform has to pass it has to pass before the next election. If they do do not tackle it Immigration reform has very small chance of gaining traction since campaign for presidential primaries would start. If at all anything has to be done it has to be now.

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Looking at the way, republicans sneaked in the farm bill conference in middle of this 17 day fiasco, i would suspect immigration has a good chance to get into conference too. There will be multiple bargains with everything on the table on all 3 major outstanding issues (budget, farm bill and immigration) and they will decide on something productive by year end.

At the end of the day for republicans would like to get push in most of their conservative agenda as much as possible with little leverage they have. Immigration will be in the give list for them to take some back..

I do not buy the fact that most immigrants would be liberal vote banks in future. Thats underestimating the intelligence of immigrants.. they would always vote for whats best for them and the community they live in just like any other voter..

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

seattlet - of all the reasons you listed - this one is the most potent one and that itself is the reason why GOP is losing the voters in the middle. So yes most of the folks you mention above will easily retain their seats. But gerrymandering with the districts is not yet perfected to the level where all republican seats are safe. So it is possible that dems might win over the house. I do not know if they will but I am just saying they just might given the whole fiasco.

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Senate elections and house elections are very different ball games.. Senate elections are much tougher to win by gerrymandering.. House elections the margins are very thin.. typically less than a lakh vote because of the district sizes.. its very easy to swing either way due to higher turnout, etc..

Take a look at the actual votes in all the Senate and House elections in 2013 (Interim elections)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_...onal_Elections

The good side of the whole fiasco is that more people will be tempted to vote next time around.. We will have to see how it turns out for both parties..

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Originally Posted by PD2008AUG25

I feel the same way. Any CIR will only pass if both houses and President are democratic. Any Legal-only or piecemeal reform will only pass if both houses and President are republican. Unfortunately for us, neither of these are predicted in near future.

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I have been saying that since a long time...

Either house and senate and white house should all be coontrolled by democrats
Or house and senate and white house should all be controlled by republicans (Even this will pass some Immigration reform which would take care of us, not so sure about the undocumented)

Darrell Issa to introduce immigration bill

“It’s halfway – and it always has been – halfway between full amnesty and simply rejecting people,” Issa told POLITICO on Wednesday. “I think if we’re going to break this logjam that’s occurred for my whole 13 years I’ve been in Congress, we have to find middle ground.”

“If somebody has a nexus that would reasonably allow them to become permanent residents and American citizen, we should allow them to do that,” Issa said. He added: “Our view is that long before six years, people would be in those categories heading toward some other pathway, in a guest worker program, or of course, have left the country.”

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2013/1...#ixzz2ie7ZHwFi

Obama tried to put some life into immigration issue once again ..

http://nbcpolitics.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/10/24/21116873-obama-this-is-the-moment-to-get-immigration-reform-done?lite

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Obama tried to put some life into immigration issue once again ..

http://nbcpolitics.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/10/24/21116873-obama-this-is-the-moment-to-get-immigration-reform-done?lite

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Also see the other side , immigration reform is being a joke

WH using immigration reform to distract from ObamaCare?
http://video.foxnews.com/v/276630918...d=928378949001

I didn't watch the video but the headline is understandable and republicans will certainly see it that way.

Now true or not - but that puts CIR in a tough spot. The only good thing I heard today morning on NPR is that GOP is trying to remove the path to citizenship from the bill and have the immigrants follow normal citizenship line (i.e. 5 years post GC). That doesn't sound terribly bad to me. In fact that is quite sensible. What I am not sure if it was just one representative talking that way - or Boehner wants it that way. No idea.

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Originally Posted by qriousjunta

Also see the other side , immigration reform is being a joke

WH using immigration reform to distract from ObamaCare?
http://video.foxnews.com/v/276630918...d=928378949001

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Originally Posted by idiotic

Senate elections are much tougher to win by gerrymandering..

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especially since it's difficult to redraw state borders :)

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Originally Posted by idiotic

The good side of the whole fiasco is that more people will be tempted to vote next time around.. We will have to see how it turns out for both parties..

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This article agrees with you. Makes a few other good points about why CIR has a better chance now than a month ago. I still think he's underestimating House Republicans' fear of a primary challenger.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert...b_4162829.html

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

The only good thing I heard today morning on NPR is that GOP is trying to remove the path to citizenship from the bill and have the immigrants follow normal citizenship line (i.e. 5 years post GC). That doesn't sound terribly bad to me. In fact that is quite sensible.

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That's been my stance since the beginning. If the Republicans passed a bill or a series of bills through the house that matched everything in the Senate bill except for a guaranteed pathway to citizenship, they could rightly claim they've done their bit for all immigrants and the Democrats are the unreasonable party holding up immigration reform by insisting on that one extra safeguard. I think the Democrats would huff and puff for a few months but would eventually cave.

I think the vast majority of undocumented immigrants would be ecstatic if they have legal status here, and have to wait a little longer for citizenship (or even if they don't have a chance to ever get it).

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-1...orm-soon-.html

http://judiciary.house.gov/hearings/..._11132013.html

Finally the long multiple postponed hearing.. Sign of at least things moving slowly..

http://homeland.house.gov/markup/ful...41-and-hr-3202

This one is still showing as postponed.. Hopefully this will be scheduled soon..

I believe all bills live for the duration of a particular congress - which is 2 years. The new congress will come in after the 2014 mid term elections - so the Senate bill will be alive until the new session starts in 2015. If the house does not take any action by then, then Senate will need to pass something again. This is the same situation as HR-3012 - just the reverse between House and the Senate.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

After healthcare, CIR is Obama's priority, but without a dem congress CIR seems difficult. I don't even know if a bill such as CIR that has passed senate but not house dies if not taken up for a vote in a certain time frame or whether it continues to exist for eternity in a limbo.

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Mr. John "Saddest Tangerine" Boehner killed CIR.. I will remember him for that!

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...-life-support/

http://bostonherald.com/news_opinion...migration_bill

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com...orm-this-year/

I see Boehner's comments as nothing but a Political spin.. The conference will happen the other way around.. Below is the link for Sen. Grassley's confirmation..

Ultimately, if the House does pass multiple bills on immigration issues, the matter will end up in House-Senate conference committee, Grassley said.

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/art...90/1056/news05

Anti immigrants in house were lobbying on effort of opposing everything in the fear to avoid going to conference. This may be a spin just to mute those people.

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Originally Posted by idiotic

I see Boehner's comments as nothing but a Political spin.. The conference will happen the other way around.. Below is the link for Sen. Grassley's confirmation..

Ultimately, if the House does pass multiple bills on immigration issues, the matter will end up in House-Senate conference committee, Grassley said.

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/art...90/1056/news05

Anti immigrants in house were lobbying on effort of opposing everything in the fear to avoid going to conference. This may be a spin just to mute those people.

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Boehner's word is final word unfortunately. You need to recall what happened on 2006. House passed an immigration bill and Senate passed CIR. Hastert declined to conference both bills though senate majority leader agreed for that. Boehner clearly told many times that any bill whether is senate bill or compromise bill needs majority of majority support. How on earth it will happen? I strongly beleive Boehner will decline to form conference committee unless majority of majority agrees. Grassley's statement is generic and he is pointing out merely the procedure. Of course pressure will increase for conference if any bill is passed in house. But they will try to make sure that no bill will be passed. They were able to delay the bill 5 months. It is not difficult to delay a few more months to kill the bill

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Originally Posted by Ramsen

I strongly beleive Boehner will decline to form conference committee unless majority of majority agrees.

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Forming of conference committee does not need majority of majority. He said bringing up the conference report to the house floor wil require majority of majority support.

Again, there are only 80 odd republicans who are saying no to everything to kill the bill.

Majority of members in congress beleive that something needs to be done than letting the current system to continue. If the conference report takes the country forward, I guess we should have that number.

As of now, it is clear that house has enough pressure to put forward their version of solution. Thats what matters right now. Rest of the game is up for toss.

I do agree with most of your other points and it is increasingly diffcult to get something done as time gets delayed. On the other hand, they may also want the final vote on this to be after the primaries.