EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

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06-17-2011, 02:54 PM
leo07

I respect your opinion

I kind of agree with your argument too. My worry was more about false posts which we don't have a way of validating the information. If we start going that path there could be more of those. No worries, I had deleted my posts.

Quote:

Originally Posted by saky007

PD's of folks getting NVC letters gives a sense of what DOS/NVC intends to do in the coming months. In that context, these comments are relevant to the predictions thread.
06-17-2011, 03:14 PM
bieber

Quote:

Originally Posted by saky007

Page 170 of the EB2-EB3 Predictions (Rather Calculations II).. thread.

I could locate the post meanwhile, thanks

it looks like they sent this notice after june bulletin, if this keeps happening Dec2008 may be the possibility
06-17-2011, 03:26 PM
ChampU

Quote:

Originally Posted by bieber

I could locate the post meanwhile, thanks

it looks like they sent this notice after june bulletin, if this keeps happening Dec2008 may be the possibility

That would be awesome!!

Can we have a "like" button on the forum like they have on facebook??
06-17-2011, 03:39 PM
ssvp22

I suspect there might be some SEO option that you might have disabled in VBulletin as part of the initial install(going by my experience with Wordpress). Also Google PageRank for this post - http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...alculations%29 - is 0, which is really strange in my opinion. There ought to be some SEO setting that is disabled right now.

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

And if the info turns out wrong then we will get 1 million "Joote" !!

sssbpgmgc, thanks for your information. I have submitted the site for SEO. Lets see if that helps. Also appreciate you referring to friends.

baba2, big congrats on your GC!! Also feel sorry that we may not see you around as much. But appreciate taking the time and penning down a few words. Everything helps! We are all quite weary here!!
06-17-2011, 03:41 PM
desi4green

First of all before I start with my question, let me tell you that I didnt know about this blog until day before yesterday when I saw Q's post on Trackitt. After reading through this discussion (read through atleast few pages of this topic) I have to hand it that you guys have quite good understanding of the H1 + GC + issues. Keep it up.

Here is my question. Its about PWMB's (People Who missed the boat) -> people who missed filling completely or missed their dependents. I have heard over and over that if they push the date to August 2007, we will have suddent surge of all the PWMB. Is that accurate statement. As they moved the date forward, wouldnt some if not most PWMB would have filed when their date became current. May be I dont understand the topic. What are your thoughts on this?

FYI... I am a EB2I PD: Dec 2007
06-17-2011, 03:55 PM
imechanix

Quote:

Originally Posted by desi4green

First of all before I start with my question, let me tell you that I didnt know about this blog until day before yesterday when I saw Q's post on Trackitt. After reading through this discussion (read through atleast few pages of this topic) I have to hand it that you guys have quite good understanding of the H1 + GC + issues. Keep it up.

Here is my question. Its about PWMB's (People Who missed the boat) -> people who missed filling completely or missed their dependents. I have heard over and over that if they push the date to August 2007, we will have suddent surge of all the PWMB. Is that accurate statement. As they moved the date forward, wouldnt some if not most PWMB would have filed when their date became current. May be I dont understand the topic. What are your thoughts on this?

FYI... I am a EB2I PD: Dec 2007

Yes, there will be a surge in PWMB if the dates reach Aug 2007 in next VB. It takes about 6 months to approve 485. So, it is highly unlikely that PWMB will get approved in FY 2011. Hence, there is an estimation of around 5K PWMB demand that will be added in FY 2012 which most likely is going to retrogress the VB dates post Sep 2011.
06-17-2011, 03:59 PM
pch053

Most of the PWMB's have their PDs in the range of Jan'07 - July'07 and even within this range the significant # of PWMB's will be in the later half (i.e. with PDs around May - June - July'07). Since the current PD for EB2-I is March'07, most of the PWMB's haven't got the opportunity to file their I485 yet. However, if the dates move past July - Aug'07 in the next two bulletins, all the PWMB's will have the chance to file their I485 and that being the reason for the surge of PWMB's.
06-17-2011, 04:07 PM
imechanix

Hypothetically,
1. If EB3 porting number is around 250 per month, and
2. All the ported applications are pre 2007, and
3. Every month 250 ported applications are approved

Then,
Is it possible that starting FY2012, EB2-India dates will retrogress in 2006 & will never reach 2007 atleast in first 3 quarters due to per country IC limit ~ 250 visas.
06-17-2011, 04:14 PM
qblogfan

It's great news! thanks for sharing!
06-17-2011, 04:15 PM
qblogfan

It is great news! I found the same information on IV.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChampU

That would be awesome!!

Can we have a "like" button on the forum like they have on facebook??
06-17-2011, 04:16 PM
qblogfan

I agree and I support your decision.

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

Its ok since this is somewhat relevant. Keeping this discussion on this main thread is useful until we establish a solid understanding of the topic. It might be a good idea to move it to a separate thread (existing or new) for people to go and refer too.

Spec feel free to do it or let me know when to do it.
06-17-2011, 04:47 PM
gcforever

Q,

It has lot to do with timing. People get more excited when PDs move fast and start looking for as much information as possible.

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

A quick note. Sometime in last couple of hours this thread surpassed 300K views. What's interesting is we had passed 200K just on 24th May. So the next 100K came in just 22 days!

Thanks to all contributors for a meaningful, valuable and respectful dialogue. All the best!
06-17-2011, 05:01 PM
bieber

this chinese website copied content and forgot to remove Q's name :)

http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31189769.html
06-17-2011, 05:49 PM
leo07

Good one...

the least they could do is to give credit. I guess, they did it anyways:)

Quote:

Originally Posted by bieber

this chinese website copied content and forgot to remove Q's name :)

http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31189769.html
06-17-2011, 05:54 PM
leo07

Congrats Baba. Thanks for the information.

Quote:

Originally Posted by baba2s

Last week i got my GC still can't resist reading this forum daily and help some of my friends.

http://www.submitexpress.com/free-submission.html
06-17-2011, 05:55 PM
qesehmk

We already have one. Dont we? Pls check the right hand side top place in the menu bar. Or right near the words "welcome" at the top ther should be a facebook connect. Once you connect you will see the like button.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChampU

That would be awesome!!

Can we have a "like" button on the forum like they have on facebook??

Thanks ssvp. How did you find out the pagerank is zero?

Quote:

Originally Posted by ssvp22

I suspect there might be some SEO option that you might have disabled in VBulletin as part of the initial install(going by my experience with Wordpress). Also Google PageRank for this post - http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...alculations%29 - is 0, which is really strange in my opinion. There ought to be some SEO setting that is disabled right now.
06-17-2011, 07:15 PM
gcwait2007

Quote:

Originally Posted by bieber

this chinese website copied content and forgot to remove Q's name :)

http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31189769.html

Q seems to be Q Chang ;) :D
06-18-2011, 05:02 AM
qesehmk

You almost got it right. Its Quing Quong!

Apologies to my chinese friends!

Quote:

Originally Posted by gcwait2007

Q seems to be Q Chang ;) :D
06-18-2011, 06:16 AM
ssvp22

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

Thanks ssvp. How did you find out the pagerank is zero?

On Google Chrome, you can install following extension - https://chrome.google.com/webstore/d...ahohc?hl=en-US . Actually page rank is not 0. Its just not set. I think there might be issues in the way the url is built since i have never really seen urls like this before. Google Webmaster can help find issues - http://www.google.com/webmasters/ - but i cannot be too sure of that.
06-18-2011, 09:08 AM
Spectator

For anyone interested, the number of EB2-I Trackitt approvals for June has now exceeded the total for the whole of May.

On the other hand, approvals tailed off dramatically in the second half of May, although I don't expect that to happen this month.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...011-vs.-FY2010
06-18-2011, 12:34 PM
qblogfan

Thanks for your hard work! It's very good data analysis.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

For anyone interested, the number of EB2-I Trackitt approvals for June has now exceeded the total for the whole of May.

On the other hand, approvals tailed off dramatically in the second half of May, although I don't expect that to happen this month.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...011-vs.-FY2010
06-18-2011, 03:18 PM
tanu_75

Quote:

Originally Posted by bieber

this chinese website copied content and forgot to remove Q's name :)

http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31189769.html

Thanks for the conspiracy theory. For what it's worth, Q's blog didn't exist then. He/She was still on the IV thread he had started and the Chinese website's thread does mention that this is IV's prediction right in the title. Besides, most of these websites don't allow you to link directly to another website.
06-18-2011, 05:07 PM
qesehmk

I am sure Bieber said it jokingly. Our efforts though mostly helpful to EB2I, are not restricted to Indians only. If chinese find value in it, they are welcome to learn and benefit.

To be fair with MITTABS website, once we complained about not being properly credited, they have mostly given us the credit for any information they have reproduced. Anyway ... but lets move on. Its not worth arguing over.

p.s. - I just want to reiterate that either this website or the work done on IV was all a team effort. Many people contributed then and many people contribute now. Just want to make sure all of us generally insist on collective credit - unless of course when somebody contributes very specific things.

Quote:

Originally Posted by tanu_75

Thanks for the conspiracy theory. For what it's worth, Q's blog didn't exist then. He/She was still on the IV thread he had started and the Chinese website's thread does mention that this is IV's prediction right in the title. Besides, most of these websites don't allow you to link directly to another website.
06-18-2011, 09:52 PM
bieber

Quote:

Originally Posted by tanu_75

Thanks for the conspiracy theory. For what it's worth, Q's blog didn't exist then. He/She was still on the IV thread he had started and the Chinese website's thread does mention that this is IV's prediction right in the title. Besides, most of these websites don't allow you to link directly to another website.

Conspiracy theory, such a loaded word. as Q mentioned I did not post that seriously at least I don't use smiley if I'm serious about something .
06-19-2011, 11:09 AM
veni001

Processing Times as of April 30, 2011

I140: (EB1-3 Primary)
NSC – 4.0 months
TSC – 7.5 months
VSC – 39.5 months
USCIS National Goal = 4.0 months
USCIS National Average = 17.0 months

EBI485:
CSC – 4.0 months
NSC – 4.9 months
TSC – 6.0 months
VSC – 5.6 months
USCIS National Goal = 4.0 months
USCIS National Average = 4.8 months

I360: (EB4 Primary)
CSC – 5.0 months
NSC – 5.0 months
TSC – 9.1 months
VSC – 5.0 months
USCIS National Goal = 5.0 months
USCIS National Average = 5.0 months

I526: (EB5 Primary)
CSC – 5.0 months
NSC – 5.0 months
TSC – 31.4 months
VSC – 5.0 months
USCIS National Goal = 5.0 months
USCIS National Average = 11.3 months

CSC – California Service Center
NSC – Nebraska Service Center
TSC – Texas Service Center
VSC – Vermont Service Center
06-19-2011, 12:28 PM
qesehmk

That's a nice compilation Veni. May be worthwhile mentioning which date is being processed today. Also this is worthy of copying to facts and data section.

Quote:

Originally Posted by veni001

I140: (EB1-3 Primary)
NSC – 4.0 months
TSC – 7.5 months
VSC – 39.5 months
........
06-19-2011, 02:06 PM
qblogfan

yes, agree, we should be friendly on this forum. It's not a big deal and keep cool!

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kanmani

I think anyone who comeacross Q's forum, they can immediately find a friendliness , which is very rare . Let us hope to maintain the same forever.
06-19-2011, 02:17 PM
veni001

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

That's a nice compilation Veni. May be worthwhile mentioning which date is being processed today. Also this is worthy of copying to facts and data section.

Q,
Will post it in FACTS AND DATA section, we can update it on a regular basis to see how fast or slow the inventory is moving.

USCIS is not providing the receipt date they are processing for all application types, when ever available we can post it here.
06-19-2011, 02:20 PM
qesehmk

Thanks. I think when they provide a range (e.g. 3 months) it means for all applications it will take 3 months to process. When they provide a date .... it means they are backlogged and they are processing applications only prior to that date. Correct me if I am wrong.

Quote:

Originally Posted by veni001

Q,
Will post it in FACTS AND DATA, we can update it on a regular basis to see how fast or slow the inventory is moving.

USCIS is not providing the receipt date they are processing for all application types, when ever available we can post it here.
06-19-2011, 02:53 PM
veni001

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

Thanks. I think when they provide a range (e.g. 3 months) it means for all applications it will take 3 months to process. When they provide a date .... it means they are backlogged and they are processing applications only prior to that date. Correct me if I am wrong.

Q,
I think you are absolutely correct.
06-19-2011, 03:25 PM
Spectator

Processing Times

Veni,

Can I introduce a slight note of caution in using simple averages across all the Service Centers.

I-140s are only dealt with by NSC and TSC these days. There are historic outliers, but VSC only had 4 cases in March 2011 and CSC had none.

Whilst the average shows 17 months because of the VSC 39.5 months, a weighted average would show a different picture.

Similarly, for I485, NSC and TSC now handle all EB cases, but they don't ONLY handle EB cases.

Can I recommend this document http://www.aila.org/content/default.aspx?docid=35245 which I referenced in Significant Sources of Data for use in Calculations http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...n-Calculations

Buried in the document is some fantastic information about what each of the Service Centers handle (and what they do not).
06-19-2011, 04:47 PM
veni001

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

Veni,

Can I introduce a slight note of caution in using simple averages across all the Service Centers.

I-140s are only dealt with by NSC and TSC these days. There are historic outliers, but VSC only had 4 cases in March 2011 and CSC had none.

Whilst the average shows 17 months because of the VSC 39.5 months, a weighted average would show a different picture.

Similarly, for I485, NSC and TSC now handle all EB cases, but they don't ONLY handle EB cases.

Can I recommend this document http://www.aila.org/content/default.aspx?docid=35245 which I referenced in Significant Sources of Data for use in Calculations http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...n-Calculations

Buried in the document is some fantastic information about what each of the Service Centers handle (and what they do not).

Spec,
Good information, I have made changes to the processing times post in FACTS AND DATA section.
I have deleted national averages (agree doesn't make much sense) and only left respective processing centers under each category.
06-19-2011, 05:03 PM
Spectator

Veni,

Good Stuff.

I know USCIS are starting a trial of a more real time system. It will be interesting if we can see the difference that makes.
06-19-2011, 06:29 PM
dokuparthi

Hi Gurus,

My PD is 19 May 2008 in EB2 Category India. Can any one tell when can I expect my PD is current.

Thank,
Enjoy007
06-19-2011, 07:15 PM
Zoroark

You will be able to file for EAD during Jul-Sep 2012 and 100% chance of getting GC between Jul-Sep 2013.

Quote:

Originally Posted by dokuparthi

Hi Gurus,

My PD is 19 May 2008 in EB2 Category India. Can any one tell when can I expect my PD is current.

Thank,
Enjoy007
06-19-2011, 07:23 PM
nishant2200

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zoroark

You will be able to file for EAD during Jul-Sep 2012 and 100% chance of getting green card between Jun-Aug 2013.

I agree.

Mine is Nov 2007, good Lord, bless me this year and at least get me the EAD.
06-19-2011, 10:21 PM
qblogfan

My PD is Jan 2008. Bless me this year and at least get me the EAD/AP.

Quote:

Originally Posted by nishant2200

I agree.

Mine is Nov 2007, good Lord, bless me this year and at least get me the EAD.
06-19-2011, 10:21 PM
qblogfan

I think he has some chance of filing EAD in this summer.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zoroark

You will be able to file for EAD during Jul-Sep 2012 and 100% chance of getting GC between Jul-Sep 2013.
06-19-2011, 10:54 PM
makmohan

If the date passes Aug 2007 (or the last date when people could file 485 during the 2007 fiasco) during this year by September or any bulletin; then there are no 485 filings. Will the dates become current then or the dates will still be moved on a month-to-month basis?
I think the PERMs really dip south only in 2009 so there will be significant (yet unknown) number of filings in rest of 2007 and 2008.

- makmohan
06-19-2011, 11:28 PM
veni001

Quote:

Originally Posted by makmohan

If the date passes Aug 2007 (or the last date when people could file 485 during the 2007 fiasco) during this year by September or any bulletin; then there are no 485 filings. Will the dates become current then or the dates will still be moved on a month-to-month basis?
I think the PERMs really dip south only in 2009 so there will be significant (yet unknown) number of filings in rest of 2007 and 2008.

- makmohan

makmohan,
Please check PWMB and AUG-DEC 2007 PERM numbers(and beyond) posted in FACTS AND DATA section. You can apply EB2:EB3 factor to PERM numbers and 485 ratio to estimate expected EB2IC new demand based PD progression in the next couple of months.

Depending where EB2IC PD is going to be set in SEPT2011 VB either dates will stagnate if not retrogress to a point where USCIS can use FY 2012 EB2I regular quota in the first two quarters!

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