Q,Spec,
Would like to know if you are still optimistic about movement in Sep bulletin.
My guess is no movement to Feb 2008 at the max. No data or any info to support.
Eagerly waiting for Wednesday....
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Q,Spec,
Would like to know if you are still optimistic about movement in Sep bulletin.
My guess is no movement to Feb 2008 at the max. No data or any info to support.
Eagerly waiting for Wednesday....
Hi guys,
I have good information that EB2-I will move beyond April 2008 as I came to know of a Consular Processing interview already scheduled for mid April 2008 priority date.
When is the CP interview and when was the interview scheduled?Quote:
Originally Posted by inspired_p
That is good to know. I always wondered Consular Processing might have best hints about cutoff dates well in advance because Consulates are supposed to intimate the applicant around 60-90 days before when they think the PD may become current. That being said, EB-2 I is beyond any logical reasoning now. They themselves had to wait until the very last 60 days to determine and allocate the spillovers. I doubt the consulates are in a position to notify the candidates because CO's office itself may not have a clue until the very last moment. And then by the time it really becomes current, only a month is left before which next fiscal year starts and the dates have to be moved back.Quote:
Originally Posted by inspired_p
Hope what you said is true, but tough to believe because I myself filed I-824 and had the case transferred to Consular Processing last year. I have a PD of March 18, 2008. I am back in US now and would like to take the route of I-485 now, but still, technically my address in India would have been notified by now if what you said applies to my case.
The case you are referring to, when is the interview scheduled for? Is that a continuation of something that was started last year? Or a fresh case that started this year?
Quote:
Originally Posted by axialtilt
As far as i know - it is fresh case , he never filed I-485 till now and he was intimated some 2 weeks back and interview is first or second week of September.
Thanks & Regards
Thanks for sharing. If the source of the information is true, it is indeed positive news for many waiting. By tomorrow this time we may have the VB, until that time anxiety continues..Quote:
Originally Posted by inspired_p
inspired_p,Quote:
Originally Posted by inspired_p
Let me assure you, I don't doubt you. Is it possible the person has an earlier PD from a previous I-140?
I can't see how an interview date for a PD of mid April 2008 under EB2-I can possibly have been set up yet, since CO has not yet determined the Cut Off Dates.
The process is for the DOS to allocate the visas to Consulates for applicants who will be Current at the time the VB is published. Only then can the interview date be set up, because before then, the Consulate does not know that they have a visa available for that applicant.
Certainly, Packet 4 (or whatever it is called now) is sent to the applicant for completion and return ahead of when dates might become Current in the near future.Quote:
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Immi...ation%20of.pdf
1. HOW THE SYSTEM OPERATES:
At the beginning of each month, the Visa Office (VO) receives a report from each consular post listing totals of documentarily qualified immigrant visa applicants in categories subject to numerical limitation. Cases are grouped by foreign state chargeability/preference/priority date.
No names are reported. During the first week of each month, this documentarily qualified demand is tabulated.
VO subdivides the annual preference and foreign state limitations specified by the INA into monthly allotments. The totals of documentarily qualified applicants which have been reported to VO, are compared each month with the numbers available for the next regular allotment. The determination of how many numbers are available requires consideration of several of variables, including: past number use; estimates of future number use and return rates; and estimates of Citizenship and Immigration Service demand based on cut-off date movements. Once this is done, the cut-off dates are established and numbers are allocated to reported applicants in order of their priority dates, the oldest dates first.
.....
VO attempts to establish the cut-off dates for the following month on or about the 8th of each month. The dates are immediately transmitted to consular posts and Citizenship and Immigration Services (CIS), and also published in the Visa Bulletin and online at the CA Web site (www.travel.state.gov). Visa allotments for use during that month are transmitted to consular posts.
CIS requests visa allotments for adjustment of status cases only when all other case processing has been completed.
I'm a little confused.
Yes I don't see why not.
Quote:
Originally Posted by inspired_p
Inspired... thanks for sharing the news and as everyone else we would love for this to happen but I had been tracking these kinds of cases and most of them had some previous PD's which the users forgot about and kind of raised false hopes... not saying this is the case but just wanted to double-check... so if it is possible can you confirm with the source if he/she never had any previous PD under any category that they forgot about and only have EB2 I PD with mid-april 2008.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
There were folks that checked the Bombay consulate's website at some point early in the morning for an early release of the bulletin. Does anyone know what that site was and what time the updates usually came?
I used to check the Mumbai site http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/cut_off_dates.htmlQuote:
Originally Posted by Pedro Gonzales
I can't remember the last time they had the dates before the VB was published - it's a long time and never since they published the wrong dates.
PS Bombay?? Surely you don't use that name anymore? :)
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I check every month without fail, The last I noticed Mumbai consulate VB getting published before the official one was sometime in FY2012.
- That might be the case. I am not sure. Anyways we should know soon enough.Quote:
Originally Posted by wolverine82
I still think that the COD might be March 1st 2013 and VB might be released around noon tomorrow
Whoot March 1st 2013!!!!!
indiani,Quote:
Originally Posted by indiani
Slipping fingers I think!
Everyone would be ecstatic if it were March 1st 2013.
I hope we see the VB tomorrow, but I'm not banking on it.
I think it may be Wednesday, due to the closure of the Consulates around the world recently. I think it is possible some were not able to report their demand figures until today. They were closed August 4 through August 10. It is possible that they had reported Demand before closure, but they may have had other concerns as a priority at that time.
I saw a post on Ron Gotcher's forum where he says the following to a forum member who has a may 2010 PD :
"It's hard to say with any degree of certainty, but highly likely that you will be current within the next nine months."
I know its just a guess from him but I dont think it is even remotely possible for 2010 PD to get current in FY2014. Thoughts?
spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
LOL..I didn't realize the mistake until you highlighted it in bold. But I guess most of you ( if not all ) know what I meant.
The pace of approvals and earlier predictions of CO and most of our earlier calculations made me arrive at a conclusion and it is the most conservative one.
Every single text message (including my newly found mate's) disappoints me ( as I am yearning for the CPO text ).
Ron might have pulled out the prediction from thin air, if there is any forum which is any close to scientific analysis its here ( especially spec), unfortunately the data is scant so the range is usually much largerQuote:
Originally Posted by gcpursuit
The last time they did this magic was for dec 2011 bulletin. I refreshed at midnite and voila. I woke up wife to make sure not imagining and then called up Teddy, forgetting his time zone. I woke up another friend then. I went crazy.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I think he pulled it from a rather darker place than thin air, if you know what I mean!Quote:
Originally Posted by indiani
Not unless about 35k are available to EB2-I in FY2014.Quote:
Originally Posted by gcpursuit
I'll leave you to assess the possibility of that happening.
Hahahahahahaha... Spec, you made me laugh a lot in the morning :). Something I have missed off late.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I don't know about others but I think delayed VB is a good sign.
The reason is - If there was no movement then there was no reason to delay. Just put it out there CO - would you? But if there is delay - probably CO is waiting to carefully measure the movement.
We will see. Good luck guys.
I agree with that assessment. He is trying to perfectly space the movement so that as few folks are left stranded as possible when the visas run out in late September. That however rules out a radical movement, which is probably a good thing, even though it probably delays my GC.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I completely agree with you. More they delay it better it might be but it could very well be possible that the final numbers justify no movement. Well, we all are at the mercy if these idiots and have to wait for the information to come out.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I agree and I hope you are correct. Last time when VB was delayed in June 2011, COD for EB2I moved for 3 months and then in July 2011 VB, COD moved another 5 months.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I'd be okay if he split the difference this time and moved it forward by 4 months. May 1, 2008 would do very well for me.Quote:
Originally Posted by erikbond101
I doubt it would go to May 1 ... best case 4/22. :PQuote:
Originally Posted by Pedro Gonzales
As others have mentioned it might be due to consulates closing in many countries and that impacts CO getting good idea for FB category.
I dont believe consulates closing will affect Eb1,2,3 forecast since the % of cases impacted by them is low. Consulates were mostly closed
in countries where there is not much employment based demand.
Quote:
Originally Posted by erikbond101
Was a bulletin (Dec 2011 I think) came out on on Nov 18 if my memory serves me right. Also later the date lesser congressional inquiries and less pressure for USICS officials to reply. Just my 2 cents. I agree with Q that delaying means CO or whoever is thinking of moving dates ahead. The suspense continues...
Dec 2011 VB was prepared on the 8th of Nov and the Jan 2012 VB was prepared on the 8th of December, so if either of those was released on the 18th, they were sitting on it for 10 full days. I don't know how they could justify that.
Sadly they don't have to.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pedro Gonzales
I am not too sure if it was released on Nov 18 but for argument purposes if it was then we should see the VB coming out on Aug 16 at the latest. I sincerely hope it is today or at the most tomorrow.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pedro Gonzales
September bulletin is out
http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_6050.html
EB2I- 15JUN08
EMPLOYMENT-based:
SECOND:
India: This cut-off date has been advanced significantly more than originally expected, based on the projection that there would be “otherwise unused” numbers under the overall Employment Second preference annual limit. This is the result of a decrease in Employment First preference number use, and a similar decrease in Employment Second preference demand for most other countries during the past two months. It is expected that such movement will generate a very significant amount of new India demand during the coming months.
THIRD:
The Employment-based Third preference cut-off date for most countries was advanced at an extremely rapid pace in April through July in an effort to generate demand. Historically such movements have resulted in a dramatic increase in applicant demand for numbers within a few months. At this time there is no indication that the expected increase is materializing or will do so in the near future. This has resulted in significant movements in the September cut-off for all countries.
It is unlikely that there will be any forward movement of most Employment-based cut-off dates during the next couple of months. In addition, a sudden surge in demand could require the retrogression of a cut-off date at any time. Such action would be required if it appears that such number use could impact visa availability under the FY-2014 annual limits.
Thanks eb2. Feel vindicated!!
Congratulations to all those current!!
Notice how the bulletin doesn't say EB2I dates will retrogress. I think this is what people need to understand that next year - if there is retrogression in eB2I - it will be artificial just like this year. Which means - that the dates next year too will move forward - ahead of where they are now.
Anyway .. congrats again. Surprisingly it seems EB2ROW probably has not fully utilized its quota which has resulted in more favorability.
Quote:
Originally Posted by eb2visa
D. VISA AVAILABILITY
FAMILY-sponsored:
F2A: This category was made “Current” in an effort to generate new demand for the upcoming fiscal year. Information received during discussions with the National Visa Center and U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services indicates that this action is already having the intended result. Therefore, it is likely that a cut-off will be imposed for October. This cut-off is unlikely to have any negative impact on those who have already initiated action on their case prior to the announcement of the October cut-off dates.
EMPLOYMENT-based:
SECOND:
India: This cut-off date has been advanced significantly more than originally expected, based on the projection that there would be “otherwise unused” numbers under the overall Employment Second preference annual limit. This is the result of a decrease in Employment First preference number use, and a similar decrease in Employment Second preference demand for most other countries during the past two months. It is expected that such movement will generate a very significant amount of new India demand during the coming months.
THIRD:
The Employment-based Third preference cut-off date for most countries was advanced at an extremely rapid pace in April through July in an effort to generate demand. Historically such movements have resulted in a dramatic increase in applicant demand for numbers within a few months. At this time there is no indication that the expected increase is materializing or will do so in the near future. This has resulted in significant movements in the September cut-off for all countries.
It is unlikely that there will be any forward movement of most Employment-based cut-off dates during the next couple of months. In addition, a sudden surge in demand could require the retrogression of a cut-off date at any time. Such action would be required if it appears that such number use could impact visa availability under the FY-2014 annual limits.
Thank God!!!
Congratulations to all those current. Happy to see my PD current again!!! Good luck every one.
Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
Heartiest congratulations to all those who are current.
Great to see good movement for EB2 at 15-JUN-08, EB3 India also jumped to 22-SEP-03 this is spectacular.
http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulleti...etin_6050.html