EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

Teddy,

I am glad that this bulletin has helped to change your mindset.

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

The bulletin is definitely great news. Since the official statement is there about the demand destruction being significant I believe we should agree to that, definitely the filings have been significantly lesser that what they have anticipated. The Jan inventory will give us a good snapshot. Once again congratulations to everyone who became current, this bulletin has been a washout. I believe that the sentiment around HR 3012 has also contributed to the movement.

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GURU's

So is there a possibility based on what USCIS is mentioning that if no of perm conversations to 485 is very less where did we miss that piece in calculations...just wanted to understand how the moment will be for next month...i mean how far can we expect.

Note: i may be wrong...but most of my friends who got current applied the first day of the month....as no one wanted to wait as things may change...

Quote:

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

The bulletin is definitely great news. Since the official statement is there about the demand destruction being significant I believe we should agree to that, definitely the filings have been significantly lesser that what they have anticipated. The Jan inventory will give us a good snapshot. Once again congratulations to everyone who became current, this bulletin has been a washout. I believe that the sentiment around HR 3012 has also contributed to the movement.

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Oh absolutely! This just shows how crucial is EAD to folks and how difficult it has become to stay on H1B - especially when we are going through a recession.

Congratulations to all those are current !!!!!
This is just awesome...
So many people will not have to deal with that BS stamping issues.....

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Originally Posted by venkat

OFFICIAL VB IS OUT - this is CO's comments

The China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date has been advanced at a rapid rate in recent months. As previously noted, this action was intended to generate significant levels of new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) offices. USCIS has reported that the rate of new filings is currently far below that which they had anticipated, prompting an even more aggressive movement of the cut-off date for January and possibly beyond. While this action greatly increases the potential for an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year, it also provides the best opportunity to utilize all numbers available under the annual limit.

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Please make it beyond Feb, please make it beyond Feb ...

Ho hoooooo, thank for every one. I am still in phase where i am not able to belive all this. If its a dream i dont want to wake up soon.

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

CONGRATULATIONS TO ALL
03/15/08 - ontheedge
03/26/08 - Saturnring
03/28/08 - pdmarch282008
04/03/08 - yesman
04/08/08 - venkimakthal
04/18/08 - VChirakala
04/22/08 - meetasn(Satish)
04/23/08 - Vissi (vishwanathkvs?)
04/25/08 - Pedro Gonzales
04/30/08 - Makmohan
05/06/08 - saky007
05/07/08 - Aary09
05/08/08 - pdmay2008
05/08/08 - cm9201
05/19/08 - shreyasai2004
05/28/08 - zombie
06/13/08 - EB2Jun08
07/09/08 - ragx08
07/11/08 - TheTexan
07/14/08 - Sirisha
08/05/08 - sreddy
08/05/08 - gcdedo
08/20/08 - vizcard
08/25/08 - PD2008AUG25
08/26/08 - jothi prakash
09/25/08 - longgcque
09/28/08 - la_2002_ch
09/29/08 - Dreamer
10/10/08 - crux123
10/21/08 - sportsfan33
10/28/08 - leo4ever
11/10/08 - myturn
11/17/08 - punjabi
11/18/08 - vinrobo
11/26/08 - varma123
11/26/08 - Scion78
12/12/08 - Sudheer
12/19/08 - zztopfan

Hope and Pray Mumbai consulate didnt commit any mistake :-)

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Originally Posted by mesan123

GURU's

So is there a possibility based on what USCIS is mentioning that if no of perm conversations to 485 is very less where did we miss that piece in calculations...just wanted to understand how the moment will be for next month...i mean how far can we expect.

Note: i may be wrong...but most of my friends who got current applied the first day of the month....as no one wanted to wait as things may change...

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Mesan, most big law firms file in the third or 4th week. It goes thru various layers of para legals, attorney reviews and HR back forth. An example is fragomen that has done so with many of my friends. They are not bad but just huge.

Ho hoooooo, congrats who are current and thanks all. I am still in a phase where i am not able to belive all this. If its a dream i dont want to wake up soon.

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

Yes kanmani, I would wait for the official word. It is surreal though.

I wish they would just move it to 1st Jan. 2010 knowing how light the year 2009 was. All of 2009 folks have now waited close to 3 years and should get a chance to file. Perhaps our Gurus can have a word with Mr. Oppenheimer :-)

EDIT: BTW, I don't want to gloat, but I cposted the "2 year demand" theory on trackitt about a month ago (even before the December bulletin came out) with the observation that EADs are given for 2 years. I think that's what we are seeing here - a demand buildup that will result in green cards through the end of FY 2013. I believe we will see a movement in the February bulletin too.

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Has anyone given a thought to EB3 india ?????????

Congratulations every one who became current. Final day my day has come.

Thanks for every one who supported us and for their valid inputs with the numbers.

As I said yesterday. VB got released in Mumbai consulate before USA release and before Demand Data release. This is the only prediction from me that became true. I have never been able to read CO mind and no one will ever be.

Good luck every one.

Okay - so we have our official confirmation that Demand Destruction is real and significant. How much - we don't know and we will not know for quite some time. It has to be quite severe for dates to move more than 6 months in one shot. Considering most EB2Is send their 485s to reach on 1st/2nd day itself, this can not be a case of delay from applicants' side.

Could it be that CO is building inventory in anticipation of HR-3012 but since he can't say that on the VB (it is not a law yet, he is only supposed to follow the existing law), he is using the excuse of DD as a fig leaf. Not saying DD is not real - just that it serves as a good excuse as well.

True to his form, he has a "possibly beyond" comment that is going to keep all 2009 PD people like me up at night the whole holiday season!

This is why we need to continue campaigning for H.R. 3012 at full steam.

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Originally Posted by PlainSpeak

Has anyone given a thought to EB3 india ?????????

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Dear Friends,

congratulations to you! we chinese and indians have been waiting for too long and we deserve this significant movement on PD!

Just as what I said before, they should have admitted at least half of the waiting people in this FY. I believe these hard working people deserve AP/EAD! Mr.CO should have moved the PD to 2009 in this summer, but he was over conservative and kept the door closed for too long!

although I am still stuck into the trouble of 485 with my evil employer, I am so glad to see this significant movement.

dear brothers and sisters, wish you a happy Christimas!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by venkat

OFFICIAL VB IS OUT - this is CO's comments

The China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date has been advanced at a rapid rate in recent months. As previously noted, this action was intended to generate significant levels of new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) offices. USCIS has reported that the rate of new filings is currently far below that which they had anticipated, prompting an even more aggressive movement of the cut-off date for January and possibly beyond. While this action greatly increases the potential for an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year, it also provides the best opportunity to utilize all numbers available under the annual limit.

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Originally Posted by asankaran

Teddy,

I am glad that this bulletin has helped to change your mindset.

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I have no issues in accepting that the demand destruction is much higher, this means the perm to I485 ratio is not even 1 quite frankly. But I do believe that partly the reason for the movement is also to have the bases covered for HR 3012.

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Originally Posted by essenel

This is why we need to continue campaigning for H.R. 3012 at full steam.

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Wonderfull !! and what will be the outcome of the campaign ?????
Feb 2012 VB EB2 india will move to Jan 2010 and EB3 india will move by 1 week
Mar 2012 VB EB2 india will move to Jan 2011 and EB3 india will move by another 1 week
Apr 2012 VB EB2 india will move to Current and EB3 india will move by another 1 week ending at Dec 2012

I willl post here again and some one will ask me to campaign for 3012 or some other new bill .......

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

I did not know this! Our company's law firm usually sends the applications on the 1st if the applicant has all of his/her documents. If that's true, then maybe the USCIS will report all of the receipts of December folks by the 1st week of January and it will perhaps prompt the DOS to stop the movement? Is that what you are implying?

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No I am not, these numbers would at the most gut idea be only 20% of filings.

I understand your pain :( EB3 will move by a significant amount if H.R. 3012 passes....

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Originally Posted by PlainSpeak

Wonderfull !! and what will be the outcome of the campaign ?????
Feb 2012 VB EB2 india will move to Jan 2010 and EB3 india will move by 1 week
Mar 2012 VB EB2 india will move to Jan 2011 and EB3 india will move by another 1 week
Apr 2012 VB EB2 india will move to Current and EB3 india will move by another 1 week ending at Dec 2012

I willl post here again and some one will ask me to campaign for 3012 or some other new bill .......

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Originally Posted by essenel

I understand your pain :( EB3 will move by a significant amount if H.R. 3012 passes....

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The keyword here is IF and with grassleys hold the chances have reduced to insignificant. So what is the basis of any expectation ....

Wow. I am so glad. I am so close, still too far. My pd is Feb 26 2009.


Congrats everyone who got pleasant surprise! This is really worthy of holiday celebration.

Gurus, is there any hope for me next bulletin? If yes, it will make my spouse live with us as the h1b is going to max out.

For Feb bulletin, CO and USCIS may not have complete numbers as they may not be able to count all receipts. I guess they will move again? But how far? Any thoughts?

This means a lot to my family.

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Originally Posted by leo4ever

Ho hoooooo, thank for every one. I am still in phase where i am not able to belive all this. If its a dream i dont want to wake up soon.

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Thanks leo4ever
On a side note my PD is Nov 17 ,2008 & I applied through consular process . I havent got fee notice from NVC. So this movement is totally unexpected. Any idea if I need to do anything .Thanks to Q and all the gurus

Congratulations to everybody who got current. Thanks kanmani, mesan and others for the specific shoutout. sf33, congrats on your impending move. Bhagvan jab deta hai ... (translation for kanmani and qbf and other non Hindi speakers: "When God gives, he tears open the roof of your hut and gives")

Clearly demand destruction has been greater than anticipated (as many of us had thought but couldn't find data to prove), and it appears that the dates could well move further in the next bulletin but let me reiterate that this is all merely transitional. There will be retrogression and many if not most of us that benefited from this move will only receive our EADs and not our GCs until the next FY. The VB says "this action was intended to generate significant levels of new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) offices." & "While this action greatly increases the potential for an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year,".

And that is why I will continue to support HR3012 (after I take a week or two to get my application in order). I hope this move doesn't suck up all the energy we've had in the recent past. It will be interesting to see if the petition continues to garner support as it has done int he last few days: http://www.petition2congress.com/568...mmigrants-act/

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

I have no issues in accepting that the demand destruction is much higher, this means the perm to I485 ratio is not even 1 quite frankly. But I do believe that partly the reason for the movement is also to have the bases covered for HR 3012.

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Teddy,
I would wait until we see the next inventory before counting on demand destruction. I don't think CO is assuming HR3012 will become law and moving EB2IC Cutoff dates!

Probably most of the people forgot by now that we talked about CO keeping two years worth of inventory as cushion.

Outside of CO moving dates forward just to create future Demand, it is also worth looking at how many people might actually get approved in FY2012 based on increased Demand Destruction.

The following table shows the effect for different Demand Destruction rates and different levels of SOFAD. All dates assume 3k Porting, 70% EB2, 20% Denial rate etc.

------------------ % Destruction (PD2007/PD2008) --------------------
SOFAD -- 15%/10% ---- 25%/20% ---- 35%/30% ---- 45%/40% ---- 55%/50%

25k --- 08-Dec-07 -- 01-Jan-08 -- 22-Jan-08 -- 22-Feb-08 -- 15-Apr-08

30k --- 08-Feb-08 -- 01-Mar-08 -- 08-Apr-08 -- 22-May-08 -- 08-Aug-08

35k --- 08-Apr-08 -- 08-May-08 -- 22-Jun-08 -- 08-Sep-08 -- 15-Dec-08

42.5k - 08-Jul-08 -- 01-Sep-08 -- 15-Nov-08 -- 01-Feb-09 -- 15-Apr-09

I hope you find it useful, at least in a qualitative way.

I think Teddy has the right mindset. I would rather be conservative like him. Don't take COs words so literally. There is some demand destruction. But i wouldn't fool myself into thinking that the movement upto Jan 09 is all due to demand destruction. Personally I believe CO is making an excuse to take a large intake.

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Originally Posted by asankaran

Teddy,

I am glad that this bulletin has helped to change your mindset.

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Originally Posted by vishnu

No Kripton - as remember EB3 I dates are only at 2002 but they have plenty of i-485s already in the system upto 2007 (during the fiasco).

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Oops.. missed that point.. Thanks Vishnu, for the clarification

I'm in

Congrats to others who is going to be current

I hope they will make another such move and Kanmani gets in next month

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Originally Posted by veni001

Teddy,
I would wait until we see the next inventory before counting on demand destruction. I don't think CO is assuming HR3012 will become law and moving EB2IC Cutoff dates!

Probably most of the people forgot by now that we talked about CO keeping two years worth of inventory as cushion.

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Veni, I agree with you, the ratio of 1 in fact has 38% demand destruction baked into it, so definitely it will be interesting to watch the next VB. I think your idea of a 2 Year inventory also seems to be plausible because essentially EAD / AP are valid for 2 years. Now since they have officially stated demand destruction they have probably got lesser than what they expected for sure but how much or how many less we will know by the inventory there seems to be truth on both sides. I still believe as Q said this bulletin is about the sentiment around HR 3012 in some way, they are trying to have sufficient numbers just in case. The point at 01-JAN-2009 corresponds to ~ 40 - 45K.

My son's passport is sent to Indian consulate for extension (he's india born).
Can I take doctor's appointment without having his passport. I do have photocopy of his passport.

Congrats to all of those who are current. This is amazing, and past few months i was definetly expecting bulletin to go past april'08, but 2009 is good for many who could not visit India on H1B. Hopefully many of us should get their GC by End of August'2012.
Hopefully QBlogFan will sort out his issues and get his Green card( he too strongly predicted dates to go beyond April'2008 with buffer factor)
I guess factors what i have been talking previously here might be really True.

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Originally Posted by Pedro Gonzales

Congratulations to everybody who got current. Thanks kanmani, mesan and others for the specific shoutout. sf33, congrats on your impending move. Bhagvan jab deta hai ... (translation for kanmani and qbf and other non Hindi speakers: "When God gives, he tears open the roof of your hut and gives")

Clearly demand destruction has been greater than anticipated (as many of us had thought but couldn't find data to prove), and it appears that the dates could well move further in the next bulletin but let me reiterate that this is all merely transitional. There will be retrogression and many if not most of us that benefited from this move will only receive our EADs and not our GCs until the next FY. The VB says "this action was intended to generate significant levels of new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) offices." & "While this action greatly increases the potential for an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year,".

And that is why I will continue to support HR3012 (after I take a week or two to get my application in order). I hope this move doesn't suck up all the energy we've had in the recent past. It will be interesting to see if the petition continues to garner support as it has done int he last few days: http://www.petition2congress.com/568...mmigrants-act/

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

Plainspeak

I have a strong belief that HR3012 will make it as soon as possible.

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And i have a strong belief that my portfolio will increase by 200% by this december end
Belief and actual facts are 2 different distinct animals which cannot be mistaken for each other

Many congrats to all fellow GCSeekers who are current..

Teddy has always been the voice of reason - he stayed conservative and data driven last summer even when everyone was predicting movement beyond 07/07. He eventually was proved right. Now, we are in fuzzy subjective decision making territory and Teddy/Gurus can only provide us with the relevant data points and potential interpretations - what CO will do with data available to him is anybody's guess.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

I think Teddy has the right mindset. I would rather be conservative like him. Don't take COs words so literally. There is some demand destruction. But i wouldn't fool myself into thinking that the movement upto Jan 09 is all due to demand destruction. Personally I believe CO is making an excuse to take a large intake.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Outside of CO moving dates forward just to create future Demand, it is also worth looking at how many people might actually get approved in FY2012 based on increased Demand Destruction.

The following table shows the effect for different Demand Destruction rates and different levels of SOFAD. All dates assume 3k Porting, 70% EB2, 20% Denial rate etc.

------------------ % Destruction (PD2007/PD2008) --------------------
SOFAD -- 15%/10% ---- 25%/20% ---- 35%/30% ---- 45%/40% ---- 55%/50%

25k --- 08-Dec-07 -- 01-Jan-08 -- 22-Jan-08 -- 22-Feb-08 -- 15-Apr-08

30k --- 08-Feb-08 -- 01-Mar-08 -- 08-Apr-08 -- 22-May-08 -- 08-Aug-08

35k --- 08-Apr-08 -- 08-May-08 -- 22-Jun-08 -- 08-Sep-08 -- 15-Dec-08

I hope you find it useful, at least in a qualitative way.

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Spec,

I just envy your ability with numbers. As always thank you very much! This table helps to bring things in perspective.

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Originally Posted by PlainSpeak

And i have a strong belief that my portfolio will increase by 200% by this december end
Belief and actual facts are 2 different distinct animals which cannot be mistaken for each other

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I share your pain. but the torture is too much for EB-3 India. if HR 3012 is not Law, what should be the solution, that is what EB-3 should think now. Other wise a guy who landed yesterday will have his Green Card and still EB-3 India from Aug 2002 waiting for the PD. Just wait for the outcome of HR 3012 at this point.

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Originally Posted by immitime

I share your pain. but the torture is too much for EB-3 India. if HR 3012 is not Law, what should be the solution, that is what EB-3 should think now. Other wise a guy who landed yesterday will have his Green Card and still EB-3 India from Aug 2002 waiting for the PD. Just wait for the outcome of HR 3012 at this point.

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I hope you see the writing on the wall for 3012 based on grassleys hold and all the spotlight on 3012 and confirm the outcome of 3012 now instead of dragging it oiut painfully for a month. The result will be the same.

I think you should be fine with a photo copy or any other form of ID that you may have for your Son for the Doc appt. You will need the updated passport to apply for 485 though.

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Originally Posted by codesmith

My son's passport is sent to Indian consulate for extension (he's india born).
Can I take doctor's appointment without having his passport. I do have photocopy of his passport.

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This is great stuff Spec, hopefully demand destruction is little higher :)

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Outside of CO moving dates forward just to create future Demand, it is also worth looking at how many people might actually get approved in FY2012 based on increased Demand Destruction.

The following table shows the effect for different Demand Destruction rates and different levels of SOFAD. All dates assume 3k Porting, 70% EB2, 20% Denial rate etc.

------------------ % Destruction (PD2007/PD2008) --------------------
SOFAD -- 15%/10% ---- 25%/20% ---- 35%/30% ---- 45%/40% ---- 55%/50%

25k --- 08-Dec-07 -- 01-Jan-08 -- 22-Jan-08 -- 22-Feb-08 -- 15-Apr-08

30k --- 08-Feb-08 -- 01-Mar-08 -- 08-Apr-08 -- 22-May-08 -- 08-Aug-08

35k --- 08-Apr-08 -- 08-May-08 -- 22-Jun-08 -- 08-Sep-08 -- 15-Dec-08

I hope you find it useful, at least in a qualitative way.

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Originally Posted by PlainSpeak

I hope you see the writing on the wall for 3012 based on grassleys hold and all the spotlight on 3012 and confirm the outcome of 3012 now instead of dragging it oiut painfully for a month. The result will be the same.

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I understand that there are people against HR 3012, because this bill have bi partisan support, both the parties (Republicans and Democrats) won't leave it easily, Both want to show something to people during this election (with little salt and pepper!) There are lot of backdoor negoatiations happening. Sen.Grassley is a nay sayer and a "Holder" of the bills in the senate, so we can expect a positive outcome within 3 to 4 weeks at least and 3012 becomes law this year itself. This is the only "HOPE" EB-3 India have now. No one in the world can say that it will become Law. but chances are not dim!

Congrats to everyone who got current!!!!

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Originally Posted by romanitaly

I think you should be fine with a photo copy or any other form of ID that you may have for your Son for the Doc appt. You will need the updated passport to apply for 485 though.

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Thanks for reply..Very basic doubt.. just want to confirm.
I can file for 485 between 01 Jan 2012 to 31 Jan 2012 .
Is it correct ?