I like your username!Quote:
Originally Posted by qblogfan
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I like your username!Quote:
Originally Posted by qblogfan
Apart from September 2008, when it reached 01AUG06 http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_4328.htmlQuote:
Originally Posted by qblogfan
I am sorry. I typed a wrong month.
What I meant was I calculated the number of cases from 08/2006 to 07/2007 (12 months totally). This number should be close to our future annual demand. My estimation is that our future annual demand of I&C EB2 should be around 30k.
The PERM numbers in 2006, 2007 and 2008 are at similar levels.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Thanks for your comment! I really like this blog and created this name. I like the friendly environment here. There is not much argument, but much friendship and care. I don't want to ruin it. :)
Don't worry.Quote:
Originally Posted by qblogfan
Sorry if I sounded a bit sharp.
Actually, the PD history data on the IV website has (or had - I haven't looked recently) that very same error. It had 01JUN06 for July-Sep 2008. I used that as the initial data for a spreadsheet I keep and only very recently noticed the error.
I think prior to DOS actually publishing the history, most people used it and probably still do.
Welcome to the forum.
PS My reservations are more about trying to extrapolate a year we know to be incomplete. It is already hard enough when we think a year shows the complete picture.
No problem, sir. I like your analysis and your information is very useful. You guys have done so much deep analysis based on solid data. I am glad to join this forum. I have a PD of 2008.01. I hope I can submit 485 in this summer. Keep my fingers crossed. Two of my coworkers have PDs of 2008.02 and 2008.04, but they got NVC fee notices two days after the June VB was released. I heard usually NVC is very careful about these notices and they only send fee notices 4-6 months before a PD becomes current. Both of my coworkers have paid the fee and they said the fee is only valid for 12 months. I think it is a strong sign they may move PD to April 2008 within 12 months, or even within 4-6 months. What do you guys think about this? I am not a guru, but I just heard this information from coworkers.
[/QUOTE]Two of my coworkers have PDs of 2008.02 and 2008.04, but they got NVC fee notices two days after the June VB was released. I heard usually NVC is very careful about these notices and they only send fee notices 4-6 months before a PD becomes current. Both of my coworkers have paid the fee and they said the fee is only valid for 12 months. I think it is a strong sign they may move PD to April 2008 within 12 months, or even within 4-6 months.[/QUOTE]
What do you guys say about this? Specially the fact that the fees are only valid for 12 months (I didnt know that). That means not only do they have to be current but their interviews must be held within the next 12 months. Otherwise they would make people pay twice. That would at a minimum be wrong and at a maximum open them for lawsuits.
Gurus,
Something does not add up in PERM numbers and I-485 Inventory for July 2007. Total PERM approved for IC in July 2007 is 665. EB2-EB3 I-485 total inventory for July 2007 is 4506 (EB2I = 1574, EB2C = 1867, EB3I = 890, EB3C = 175).
How can it be possible? Even considering 100% approval at I-140 stage, each perm got converted to approx 6.5 I-1485. Am I missing something here ?
Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Yes, sir! Originally I thought they got spam and finally they told me it's real deal. They also thought it was scam. Then we thought maybe DOS and USCIS are playing games again, but yesterday my coworkers told me they paid the fee and the $795 fee is only valid for 12 months. I think this is a very serious deal. Usually they won't ask you to pay the fees unless they are 90% confident about the future movement. DOS/NVC won't play a game on real money, right?
Another interesting thing is that a friend with PD Nov. 2007 got his notice right after the release of VB in April. My coworkers with PD 2008 got their notices right after the release of VB in May. June VB mentioned the upgrade from EB3-EB2 is very small, so I guess DOS informed NVC to send out more fee notices to cover some of PD 2008.
I suspect there is some relationship between the fee notices and the estimation from DOS. DOS notices NVC on a monthly basis. Maybe we will see more fee notices after the next VB.
Two of my coworkers have PDs of 2008.02 and 2008.04, but they got NVC fee notices two days after the June VB was released. I heard usually NVC is very careful about these notices and they only send fee notices 4-6 months before a PD becomes current. Both of my coworkers have paid the fee and they said the fee is only valid for 12 months. I think it is a strong sign they may move PD to April 2008 within 12 months, or even within 4-6 months.[/QUOTE]
What do you guys say about this? Specially the fact that the fees are only valid for 12 months (I didnt know that). That means not only do they have to be current but their interviews must be held within the next 12 months. Otherwise they would make people pay twice. That would at a minimum be wrong and at a maximum open them for lawsuits.[/QUOTE]
Considering all the variables it will take some brain storming before we can start on this.Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I missed the CP cases, which is significant piece of the pie when comes to EB3!
tonyromo,Quote:
Originally Posted by tonyromo
I take my hat of to you! You have obviously been looking at the data with a very keen eye.
I had noticed this too and was rather hoping nobody else would! ;)
A couple of possible solutions.
If I push the date from the end of July towards the last day filing were accepted, then the figure increases to 1,400 although that is perhaps somewhat cheating. It does however introduce a small number of August PD cases, which is what we see in the Inventory.
Secondly, we know that extracting the received date is not a perfect match for PD, because kd2008 explained that the case number was generated when the electronic process was initiated, rather than when the PERM was actually submitted.
Because some lawyers pre-filled forms ready to submit, some cases might appear to have earlier PDs in our analysis than they actually have. This would have the effect of increasing the July 2007 PERM numbers Certified before the end of July. Since the shift is likely reasonably constant it shouldn't alter the overall monthly totals, but it would mean more PERMs with a July 2007 PD Certified before the end of July 2007.
I accept it probably isn't a very satisfactory explanation. It's the best I can give presently and reflects the imperfect data we have to work with.
Great analysis! Do you have any ideas?
tonyromo if Spec tips his hat to you .... bask in this glory! Welcome to the forum!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I knew some reality at least in my prior organization. Wherever PERM approval was not received for the applications filed in May, June and July 2007, Attorneys took calculated risk of submitting concurrent I-140 and I-485 in August 2007, without PERM approval. They were correct that they would get the PERM approval before receipt of RFE and submit the same. They did this upto August 15th, 2007.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
gcwait,Quote:
Originally Posted by gcwait2007
Thanks for the first hand experience. That is quite useful.
Even in this case, the PERM themselves (and therefore the I-485) would still have a PD of May, June or July wouldn't they?
So any August PD cases should not be considered as filed under the July VB. I still can't understand why there are ANY August 2007 PD cases in the Inventory at all, given the memo discussed earlier.
I might consider replacing the End of July table with one to August 17, 2007 decision date, since it does make quite a big difference to the July 2007 PD numbers. I can put a note about the August cases.
What do others think?
A quick note. Sometime in last couple of hours this thread surpassed 300K views. What's interesting is we had passed 200K just on 24th May. So the next 100K came in just 22 days!
Thanks to all contributors for a meaningful, valuable and respectful dialogue. All the best!
I am very exciting to know this too. It's great news! Thanks for sharing!
Frankly it's a great blog. I was watching quietly before, but I feel I should post something, so I registered an account today. I am sure many others are watching quietly. Thank you for providing such a nice forum to discuss about GC issues.
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
You are talking like Apple's Steve Jobs now, our App Store downloaded x apps in 9 months and do it 2x we did in 3 months:)Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
LoL !!!!!!
Quote:
Originally Posted by ifaith
Congratulations Q! I have been following this forum since last week. I didn't know until last week this forum exists. Every month when the visa bulletin releases, I read some forums, and feel they don't have enough information. Last week I saw Q's post in one of the trackitt's thread and followed to here. Just few minutes after entering forum, I was amazed with the amount of USEFUL info. I spent couple of hours on that day and next day I want to show this forum to my friend, but it took 30 minutes to search on Google to find this forum. One of the major problem for me was remembering the name of the website. Another thing is unfortunately Google didn't return any results from this forum for the popular searches like july visa predictions, eb2 visa predictions etc... For the past one week, I am trying to do my best to spread the word about this forum (now I am suggesting my friends to search "Q's immigration blog" on Google). Hats off to the wonderful forum, I am glad that I found this atleast now! Thanks to Q, Veni and Spec for the valuable information. My sincere suggestion for this forum is, it needs some Search Engine Optimization. Then it will sure reach 1M views very soon. I was a silent viewer till today, and after seeing Q's post I registered to post this. Once again thank you for a WONDERFUL forum.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
@qblogfan not to sound rude, but this is really a forum. Blog definition - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BlogQuote:
Originally Posted by qblogfan
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
During 2007, lot of PERM cases got approved within a week upon receiving(electronic) at DOL. So there are cases applied between 01AUG2007(Wednesday) - 15AUG2007 and received approvals between 08AUG2007 - 15AUG2007.
In some cases, as gcwait pointed, attorneys took calculated risk in submitting 140 & 485 without the actual PERM approval and provided copy of labor approval to USCIS upon receiving RFE.
Veni,Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
I understand that, but although it is fine to have the Decision Date in August, there should be no August PDs accepted.
I accept that there should be more 2007 cases up to July 2007 PDs because of that. It is probably worth updating the table for that alone.
But I-140/I485 with August PD should not have been Current according to the memo. The August 2007 VB was published on July 13, 2007 and showed all Categories as Unavailable.
What is still weird is the fact that there are any August PD cases on the Inventory at all. The memo only allowed applicants who were Current in the original July VB to apply up to 17th August, so there should not have been any August PDs, since they were (by definition) not Current in the July VB and the VB retrogressed in August 2007. Otherwise, they were Current before before even the PERM was submitted!
It is a fact that some Aug 2007 cases do appear in the Inventory, but they appear to have been mistakenly accepted based on what the memo actually says. http://www.murthy.com/uscis_update.pdf
It is just one of those quirks.
I am also an silent reader of this forum. I started reading this thread from IV days.
Thanks to Q, Teedy, vini, spec and others for such wonderful info.
Last week i got my GC still can't resist reading this forum daily and help some of my friends.
As sssbpgmgc said, there ares some free ways to add our site to search engines..
Q, can you pls check this link for 'free url submission on google, yahoo...'
http://www.submitexpress.com/free-submission.html
Quote:
Originally Posted by sssbpgmgc
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Either that or those filed on July 30/31,2007 (Fee change) are grouped under August for USCIS convenience in the report?
I have now updated the post to reflect Decision dates later than August 17, 2007. http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...y-Breakdown%29Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
After the recent conversations, I believe it reflects reality better. I think that shows the power of the forum.
If the consensus is that this is wrong, it is a trivial matter to return it to Decision Dates later than July 31, 2007, but as tonyromo mentioned, the numbers for July 2007 prior to July 31, 2007 then look quite stupid. The change doesn't entirely address that criticism, but does at least go part way to it.
Hi Saky007,
Can you post the IV link? I don't find any such entry.
Thanks
<< Saky007 said
NVC letter to send payment for EB2I PD June 12, 2008
A user posted on IV that their lawyer received a mail around a month ago from NVC to pay filing fees. Exciting !!
>>
Spec,
Thanks ! It really reflects reality much better now. Just for an example if my PD was july 15 2007 and I got perm approved on Aug 10, I would have definetly filed for I-485.
On the side note, did you notice the effect this change has done to PWMB numbers. Now total PWMB perms (talking cut off date of July 31st) from your table for IC is 3651 only. Considering EB2:EB3 ratio as 70:30 and 2.1 as primary to dependant ratio for EB2 and having 100% approval rate at I-140 stage, we have PWMB numbers as 5.3K max. (Instead of 7-8K PWMB numbers we have calculated before).
Let us know your thoughts !
On the other note, only recently I have started looking into whole immigration process. I would like to mention that there is no single source of information better than this website when it comes to EB immigration. Thanks to you, Q, veni, Teddy ...etc. !!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
PD's of folks getting NVC letters gives a sense of what DOS/NVC intends to do in the coming months. In that context, these comments are relevant to the predictions thread.Quote:
Originally Posted by leo07
I partly agree with you.Quote:
Originally Posted by saky007
What DOS is doing with CP cases is very important and has a place in this thread for the very reasons you have outlined.
I have left at least two recent comments on the subject in this thread for that reason.
Have I gone too far? Possibly. The original posts can now be found here http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...ceipt-Requests
I'll leave Q to make a final decision. It is very easy to restore the posts to this thread.
I have also moved a discussion about Educational Requirements (including my own post) to Extracted Discussion & Q&As For Reading
It is a difficult balancing act. Forgive me if I have got it wrong. It is easy to do.
No problem. As long as folks can go to some place on this forum to get this information, that should be sufficient.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
saky007
as someone asked, if possible please provide the thread name and page no of iv related information
Kanmani,Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
I wouldn't use the figures from the original August 2009 Inventory. USCIS admitted there were errors.
There are pros and cons to which other Inventory you use.
Unfortunately, there is no way of knowing whether the Inventory is complete. Some cases might still be at LO, especially in EB3.
For EB3 in particular, you need to increase the Inventory numbers to account for CP cases, or your ratios will be wrong.
The EB3 rates are China - 30 to 50% and India - 12-15%. 1 or 2% is about right for EB2 cases.
Hope that helps.
Its ok since this is somewhat relevant. Keeping this discussion on this main thread is useful until we establish a solid understanding of the topic. It might be a good idea to move it to a separate thread (existing or new) for people to go and refer too.
Spec feel free to do it or let me know when to do it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
My EB-2 priority date is August 2009.
1) When do you gurus think I be able to apply for i-485, and
2) Get greencard?
I just joined this forum and you guys are simply awsome (not to mention that I dont understand any of this math)!
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
It is already done. See the new thread here http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...ceipt-Requests
If you think I have been too zealous, or the discussions should have been moved at a later date, then feel free to move them back.
It was not an easy decision anyway, so I certainly wouldn't be upset. I can see both sides of the "argument".
I have left a couple of posts in the original thread so that the topic is not sidelined - it is very important to the predictions.
Spec ... we seem to be beating this to death. So thats fine. NExt time somebody has questions ... we can point him/her to the new location. Thanks for moving the topic to an offline thread.
p.s. - I think this scheme works the best. Lets discuss everything under this thread nad once the topic is well established we can move to a more relevant threat that acts as depository of knowledge.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Q
if your source reveals that dates will be C and it happens, then we will hit 1million mark in matter of days i guess :)
And if the info turns out wrong then we will get 1 million "Joote" !!
Quote:
Originally Posted by bieber
sssbpgmgc, thanks for your information. I have submitted the site for SEO. Lets see if that helps. Also appreciate you referring to friends.
baba2, big congrats on your GC!! Also feel sorry that we may not see you around as much. But appreciate taking the time and penning down a few words. Everything helps! We are all quite weary here!!
Page 170 of the EB2-EB3 Predictions (Rather Calculations II).. thread.Quote:
Originally Posted by bieber