I expect around 4-5 months for EB2I and 2-3 months for EB3I.Quote:
Originally Posted by krnashvom8
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I expect around 4-5 months for EB2I and 2-3 months for EB3I.Quote:
Originally Posted by krnashvom8
Quote:
Originally Posted by krnashvom8
I "feel":
May Bulletin: EB2 = 09/01 (+4 Months)
June Bulletin: EB2 = 12/01 (+3 Months)
July Bulletin: EB2 = 02/01 (+2 Months)
Aug Bulletin: EB2 = 05/01 (+3 Months)
Sep Bulletin: EB2 = 06/15 (+6 Weeks) - based on downgrades to EB3
I am EB2 Nov'2010, so focussing only on EB2.
Again, no number heres - just intuition.
Predictions could become really messy in the near future. By end of FY2021, I wouldn't be surprised to see FAD in late 2012 (even though going strictly by the numbers it is not expected to reach 2012). CO could just advance the dates in order to capture applications that are pre-adjudicated. Remember that all applications are not created equal and so their processing speeds would depend on myriad of factors like the application itself or the Adjudicating Officer or Service Center etc. EB3 could get vertical spillover too. Yes you heard it right. @Spec had a very informative post regarding EB3 numbers of South Korea and Philippines and how they got more than their share of 2800 GCs in EB3. With the same logic, if there are not many pre-adjudicated cases in EB2 they could use up the numbers in EB3. So all in all it's going to be an interesting few months if USCIS shows the right intent.Quote:
Originally Posted by krnashvom8
What's the point of dates moving to 2011/12 when USCIS can't even process November 2009 candidates?Quote:
Originally Posted by maduraikaran
That's not a DOS problem, It's USCIS problem. One very good thing, I can think off is that a lot of kids can be saved from aging out.Quote:
Originally Posted by smuggymba
Good point vsivarama . Lot of kids age locked with that even though Zig zag or random GC allocation happens, hoping that FAD retrogression wont unlock kids age.Quote:
Originally Posted by vsivarama
thats the benefit, retrogression does NOT unlock kids age. Once FAD becomes current for your priority date, from the first of that month, your child's age is locked.Quote:
Originally Posted by gcconnect
The point is the kids with non US passport will be protected under CSPA if the final dates are current. It is a big deal for a lot of people waiting.Quote:
Originally Posted by smuggymba
Indeed! One of those people is me!!Quote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
Eb2 I had about 30,000 approved 140's till May 2011, according to the tweet shared by David Bier.Quote:
Originally Posted by vsivarama
That was approximately the total number of Eb1 140 approved from India in 2020 March, which took a year to clear.
However the dependent demand for E2 I will be less than Eb1, which means the chances of covering the same numbers in 6 months is possible for EB2.
going by what CO said, EB2/3 I FAD will be near the FD by Sep 2021...i am not sure how EB3I FAD can reach Jan 1 2014 in next 5 months..am i missing something here....Quote:
Originally Posted by AlmostThere
EB3 I Final dates had jumped from January 07 to January 09 from March 2018 bulletin to August 2018. A similar or better movement can happen from May 2021 to September 2021 if we take CO's words at face value.Quote:
Originally Posted by iamdeb
yes even considering that jump, it was for 2 years from Jan 07 to Jan 09...here we are talking about more than 3 years from Sep 1 2010 to Jan 1 2014.........Quote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
In the same video you probably also heard Charlie say that he has no visibility to downgrade numbers. So absent that information it's only correct of him to assume FAD will catch up with FD in EB3. Once he gets the demand for downgrade, he will probably readjust his forecast. He is making prediction based on current facts on the ground. Once they change his prediction will change.Quote:
Originally Posted by iamdeb
My PD is 22/Sep/2016 currently EB2 India. when can i expect my PD to be come current in both EB2 & EB3 India please?
I completely agree with you on this. Based on the number of downgrades, I would expect EB3I FAD to end up somewhere in early-mid 2012 even if USCIS doesn't waste lot of visas.Quote:
Originally Posted by vsivarama
Your guess is as good as mine. Honestly you will be lucky to be current anytime in the next 3-5 years. This does not do you any good since it is pretty vague but you would be lucky to have your green card by 2025.Quote:
Originally Posted by immif4t
Quote:
Originally Posted by iamdeb
For the last 5 months, consulates are averaging about 300 visas every month. Based on Spec's post, Consulates can churn out 18,000 approvals on average every month on normal working conditions. We might see an even better windfall for EB in 2022 with total numbers more than 300,000 if the above pattern continues at consulates for the next 6 months.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
With no respite to pandemic in lot of parts around the world, there are chances that spillover can be even more than 200,000 for FY 2022
With that kind of numbers in the horizon, I think CO will be pushing the EB3 numbers to December 2013 before August 2021. All the downgraded people are ready to be pre adjudicated within a month.
The only people now we have to worry is the people who did not downgrade in October 2020, attempts to downgrade now when final dates pass their EB2 date, even though there are signs their numbers are good enough to be covered this FY.
As some info is missing, I assume that you are in EB2. When did you file I485 and has 180 days passed after the application was received by USCIS? Then only you can talk about AC21.Quote:
Originally Posted by 2Be_H1B_Or_Not_2B
Didn't mean to burst any bubble rather take me as a voice of practicality here. Once EB3 FAD crosses May 2011 expect the lane traffic to completely flip b/w EB2 to EB3 due to downgrades. I would guess both EB2 and EB3 finish off this September with no more than 6 months difference in the FAD (EB3 ahead of EB2 by 6 months or so) based on demand data accounting for downgrades. With 10-15% visa wastage you can expect - EB2 @ somewhere b/w Jan-May 2011 and EB3 @ somewhere between June-Sep 2011 come this September 2021.
Hello,Quote:
Originally Posted by Zenzone
Is this not going to be the case? - EB3 FAD to become 01/Jan/2014 or 2015? over the next 5 years? because they already forecasted how many number of applications they can accept.
@aceman, @visvarama can you please provide an answer for my question above?Quote:
Originally Posted by immif4t
So you are predicting the FAD. will the dates not move further in Oct/2021? is it correct that there will be another wave of clearance in Oct/2021? does it result in further movement of the FAD of EB3 and/or EB2 ?Quote:
Originally Posted by Zenzone
Just trying to understand what is the point then to ask people with PD of 01/Jan/2015 to apply and to only process applications until June-Sep 2011?
This may seem like a cop-out, but here is my take: We know we are getting 120k extra numbers in FY2021 for EB and the same or likely a lot more than that for FY2022. Since you are so far out (9/2016), it may be Oct 2022 before there can be any prediction for your date. By then there will be two cycles of massive spillover history and more importantly data on if and how many spillover numbers were wasted by USCIS. There were huge I-140 numbers in the intervening years between 2010/11 and 2016 so absent any legislation like not counting dependents or recapture, it may be some time to be honest. 2015-2016 was bonkers.Quote:
Originally Posted by immif4t
Take a look at these charts: https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...2020_Q1_Q2.pdf
2 cents is EB3 will be ahead of EB2 only for couple of bulletins more......currently EB2I is behind EB3I by only 4 months and the in the April bulletin Eb2 moved ahead by 3.5 months and closed some of the gap....Quote:
Originally Posted by Zenzone
as per the CO he doesn't have visibility into the downgrades yet ....but he also said that he was slowly seeing those downgrades which were filed in Oct or early Nov last year....my gut feeling is that EB2 will catch up with EB3 in the next 2 bulletins and stay ahead of EB2 from then onwards as all the downgrades would have hit the database by then.....
Any predictions or ideas about EB2 I (PD Aug 2009) RFE response review times?
The lawyer submitted RFE in Jan 2nd week to TSC, RFE included 485j and medicals. No response yet, it is about 80 days. Any predictions on RFE response review times at TSC.
I do not see a path for EB2 - Sep 2016 to be current next FY 2022. There maybe more of a chance in EB3. But for EB3 to progress till your date, USCIS needs to keep the visa wastage to a minimum. The second page of the below chart gives the approved i140s for Indian nationals from 2009 - 2019. So the approved i140 numbers in EB2 till end of 2015 would be around 14000 + 22311+ 21440 + 25634 + 32702 = 116087. I have taken an estimate of 14000 for year 2011 assuming everyone till May 15th, 2011 in EB2 gets a GC. 116087 are just the primary applicants, factoring in dependents the number doubles. Even with 40 % downgrades to EB3 it still leaves ((116087 * 2) * 0.6) = 139304 applications in EB2 till end of 2015. You can do a similar Math for EB3. Here you add up the 40% downgraded numbers each year from EB2 to EB3 totals (from 2011 to 2015) and multiply it by 2 to factor in dependents. You can do the math and see how likely it is for your PD to be included. I have used 40% downgrades, it's an arbitrary number and a judgement call. Unless we get the actual data it's just assumptions here.Quote:
Originally Posted by immif4t
https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...ry_FY09_19.pdf
All of you asking for PD movement predictions, please have some patience. Earlier we used to have Pending inventory data from USCIS. They are no longer publishing that data. Also future movements depend on how many GCs that USCIS processes this year. If they endup wasting spillover, all those people who are in the queue before you will always be ahead of you. We don't know how many people had downgraded from EB2 to EB3. So you cannot say for sure whether EB2 will be faster or EB3 will be faster. DOS Consular Affairs is starting to be more open. They are having YouTube discussions and such. It is just a matter of time, before they publish the data. I suspect that they have not received good input from USCIS yet.Quote:
Originally Posted by immif4t
Till reliable numbers come out from USCIS, any prediction will be the equivalent of DSP Singham knocking out 10 bad guys in one blow.
Are you looking for Filing or Final? Might be feasible if the dates are moved to December 2016 in Oct 21 bulletin. For that to happen EB should be getting close to 200,000 spill over visas from Family.Quote:
Originally Posted by immif4t
I would recommend you to read the post by most of the people here to have an understanding of how the numbers are presented.
Agree! There is no data watsover to be precise here. But its common sense to assume that anyone after May-2011 would have downgraded (if it was ever an option) to get their EAD at the minimum.Quote:
Originally Posted by idliman
From April 2021 onward, the October filers will gradually be eligible for AC 21 and H1B transfer. Will these new petitions impact EAD/GC processing speed?
Not sure if the same USCIS manpower is allocated to process all kinds of applications.
I am not concerned with the volume of AC21 applications. Since the FAD dates are moving aggressively, I believe few people change companies unless it is a good offer. Even if they do, I don't think it's lot of work to approve 485j. Also I believe very small set of people opt for H1 transfer after AC21 eligible.Quote:
Originally Posted by moonlight
My main concern will be new H1 applications and how USCIS prioritizes them over 485 applications.
Chances are high to be in filling dates in Oct 2021 visa bulletin, I?m assuming until March 2017 EB3I to be current in filling dates.Quote:
Originally Posted by immif4t
Here is a question...can we really trust the USCIS "Case Status" for anything? Not sure it reflects the real time status. I ask because my I-140 was approved back in 2019, the company received the physical approval notice in 2019 itself and we've used it to submit I-485 documents, have receipts for I-485, I-765, I-131 and have finished biometrics but the status on the website for I-140 still says "Received" for I-140 two years out. Wondering when those statuses actually update?
If you have valid EAD, that and Passport is enough. Do take I94 just in case.Quote:
Originally Posted by krnashvom8
Hello all,
First of all thank you to all the experts for the wonderful advice/discussions here. I have been a silent reader for a while now, and posting on this forum for the first time. My apologies if this is the wrong thread.
Current Situation:
Priority Date: Oct 2012
EAD and AP received on Mar 30, 2021 (applied on Oct 9, 2020)
Pending I-140 approval for downgrade from EB2 to EB3 (applied on Oct 9, 2020)
My spouse is on H1-B, just changed jobs, and obviously has no PERM with new employer
I have an offer for a new job from an employer who will NOT transfer H1-B. I want to know the process to change jobs on EAD while minimizing risks.
The process per my understanding:
1. Stay with current employer till I-140 downgrade approve. I do not want to risk rejection and/or RFE situation with I-140.
2. Once I-140 approved and offer details with new employer finalized, apply I-485 J for change of job
3. Once I-485J approved, resign from current employer and join new job
Could the experts please chime in if my understanding of the process is correct? What are the risks of joining new employer on EAD and let go of H1-B?
Thank you.
USCIS is usually good about updating the status. But there could be some applications 5% - 10% where the status never updates. Could be something manual that the officer needs to trigger which never got triggered. At this point, I would not hold out hope for a status change for your i140 application from nearly 2 years ago. Anyways, now that you have your physical copies, the online status does not matter.Quote:
Originally Posted by android09
I recall that my I-140 status updated a couple of days after we received the paper copies in 2010 . The lawyer said that it would not matter as long as we had the paper copies, but anyway after 2-3 days updated online.Quote:
Originally Posted by vsivarama
I am no expert but you can switch job immediately once the below conditions are met:Quote:
Originally Posted by amey111
1. i-140 approved
2. i-485 pending for more than 180 days
3. new job in similar category.
i-485j can be filed post joining or if/once there is an rfe or not filed at all (should be carried along at the time of interview)
Risks of abandoning H1b:
1. if for whatever reason, your i-485 gets declined, you will immediately fall out of status
Another risk to keep in mind...Quote:
Originally Posted by bones20
2. Nowadays EAD renewal takes more than 6 months. When GC is not received and EAD renewal application is pending till its expiration; you will not be able to work after expiration. Though your status will be still legal.