EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

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Originally Posted by Jagan01

I am thinking on similar lines. But it all depends on when the dates move and when does CO retrogress the dates. Both the factors cannot be predicted.
I think CO will follow the following pattern:
1. Move ahead in Aug to X
2. Move ahead to Y in Sep (Y will be based on the demand and supply data he has)
3. Keep the dates at Y until Nov. --> This is the key thing. I think he has decided that keeping dates until Nov gives him a chance to see the porting demand. He might give up the annual quota in the process. However, that is still following the rules and giving 3000 to EB2I in the begining of the year instead of steady visas across the year.

If he follows the above pattern then you might have 3 months window open.

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Thanks for your thoughts, Jagan. Do you think getting GC through AOS is possible within 3 months?

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Originally Posted by gcpursuit

Thanks for your thoughts, Jagan. Do you think getting GC through AOS is possible within 3 months?

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Last year many people got it in 3 months. I would say a lot of the Aug first time filers got GC. So yes it is possible to get approved in 3 months

Basically, dates will be moved looking at the visible inventory and most who have pre-adj cases ready before the PD in Sep will get GCs. Around 3000 first time filers have a chance in the event that CO decides to do what he did this year. Keep approving GCs until annual allocation is used up.

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Originally Posted by surya1975

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...FY_2014_Q1.pdf
Perm approval data released. Gurus based on this any new predictions on EB2-I?

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Hey thanks for this update.
It is pretty much inline with the expectations. We can consider PERM data from 5 quarters to count towards EB2ROW. FY2013 Q2(9k),Q3(7k),Q4(7k) an FY2014 Q1(9k),Q2(?k). This is the worst case assumption.

Assuming FY2014 Q2 is 10k, the total becomes 42k. Out of this 35% will be ROW ~15k. EB2 10k and EB3 5k. The consumption will me a multiple of 2. Hence EB2ROW should not take up more than 20k visas. If that happens then we can get 14k additional spillover.

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Originally Posted by vinrobo

In that case you will need to wait until your dates become current again. My PD was surrent in Jan 2012. Applied 485. But dates retrogressed and I am still waiting. I got EAD/AP though.

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sorry, I was not clear.. what happens after you get EAD and the PD becomes current again. will you get your GC even if the date retrogresses.

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Originally Posted by gc4a_k

sorry, I was not clear.. what happens after you get EAD and the PD becomes current again. will you get your GC even if the date retrogresses.

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If visa number was assigned to your application during the time period PD was current, you will get it even if PD retrogresses.

My PD is 07/17/2009 and I haven't filed my 485 yet. Is there a chance, however slim it may be, to file my 485 this year?

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Originally Posted by jimmys

My PD is 07/17/2009 and I haven't filed my 485 yet. Is there a chance, however slim it may be, to file my 485 this year?

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0.0001% - maybe even less.

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Originally Posted by jimmys

My PD is 07/17/2009 and I haven't filed my 485 yet. Is there a chance, however slim it may be, to file my 485 this year?

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jimmys, Welcome to the forum.

I personally think there is 50-50 chance to file your I-485 this year . Getting the physical card is not assured though.

This year is very much different from 2013, right from perm backlog, lower I-140 receipts/pending list, EB2 RoW is not retrogressed as it was in FY2013. As of now EB1/EB5 usage is similar to that of FY2013. EB2 ROW is expected to be lower than last year.

75% chance to move beyond March 2009, 50 % chance to move between July 2009-Sept 2009

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

jimmys, Welcome to the forum.

I personally think there is 50-50 chance to file your I-485 this year . Getting the physical card is not assured though.

This year is very much different from 2013, right from perm backlog, lower I-140 receipts/pending list, EB2 RoW is not retrogressed as it was in FY2013. As of now EB1/EB5 usage is similar to that of FY2013. EB2 ROW is expected to be lower than last year.

75% chance to move beyond March 2009, 50 % chance to move between July 2009-Sept 2009

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Jimmys,

Welcome...

I personally feel there is more chance than what Viz mentioned and less than what Kanmani mentioned. I tend to agree with Kanmani but here is the trick.

It depends on when the CO moves date.
1. If dates are moved in Aug and Sep then 75% chance of dates moving to Feb 2009 and 50% of dates moving to May 2009 and then it gradually tapers.
2. If CO thinks there is very good spillover due to lower EB2ROW usage then he can start moving dates earlier. If dates move starting May then porters will start showing up before the Aug and Sep months. That will change the entire scenario as CO will know exactly what the actual + porting demand is and then it makes chances of movement beyond Mar 2009 very very tough.

This question may not be related to current thread, but let me mention it over here.

I was comparing demand data and Oct inventory. I'm not sure but somewhere I felt that chances of moving priority dates further in case of EB3 could be more as -
1. They are porting it to EB2.
2. China and other countries are current, except Philippines, that too has around 1500 something application before Jan 2013. If that's the case then EB3 can expect horizontal spill over from EB3 category itself, boosting to move their priority date further.

This is out of topic. So forum moderators please feel to move it else where if appropriate. I have a priority date of 2010 in the EB2 category. Looking to move jobs on EAD. Had been on EAd for 2 years now. The original job description for GC was software engineer II, but new position being offered is Software QA engineer. Per AC21 rules, is it wise to make a switch, and how much should the job description and duties match. Totally confused and stressed right now. Looking for answers

May not be the right three to post in.
Q, Kanmani and other gurus need your help.
I am looking to move to a new employer on EAD. The job offered would likely be "Software QA Engineer" and GC was filed for "Software Engineer". Need your thoughts on AC21. Would it be okay to accept the position of Software QA Engineer and if so to what extent do the duties need to match for AC21 approval. BTW My AC21 has been pending for more than 180 days. I am looking to some insights on how to approach this situation and need to give an answer ASAP.

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Originally Posted by Jagan01

Having provided the above explanation, it all hinges around EB2ROW. That is the big number which will dictate the movement ahead, and building of inventory in case we get a good spillover from them.

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Any idea Jagan when EB2I - PD 2/2/2009 will be current? I'm new to this forum and any insight will be appreciated.

EB3 ROW/C is current for the purpose of generating inventory. They are likely to retrogress in near future. They are also likely to consume their quota this year (no data as yet on how much the inventory is - so this is pure guesswork right now). However, given that they seem to be having trouble getting inventory, many folks have the opinion that EB3I might receive horizontal spillover in a couple years.

BTW - EB3P has 1500 just until its PD. It surely has thousands and thousands more waiting in the wings hoping for its PD to expand. EB3P is not becoming C anytime soon.

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Originally Posted by Dumstuck

This question may not be related to current thread, but let me mention it over here.

I was comparing demand data and Oct inventory. I'm not sure but somewhere I felt that chances of moving priority dates further in case of EB3 could be more as -
1. They are porting it to EB2.
2. China and other countries are current, except Philippines, that too has around 1500 something application before Jan 2013. If that's the case then EB3 can expect horizontal spill over from EB3 category itself, boosting to move their priority date further.

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I wouldn't be this pessimistic. I am not going to put a number on the odds - but there is a low but reasonable shot that PD moves to go beyond the date asked (07/17/2009). We have been off on both sides in the past - too many moving pieces and too much opaque data. Hang in there Jimmy - keep your paperwork ready - and move fast if the dates indeed reach you.

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Originally Posted by vizcard

0.0001% - maybe even less.

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Originally Posted by jaco1647

Any idea Jagan when EB2I - PD 2/2/2009 will be current? I'm new to this forum and any insight will be appreciated.

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may be aug-sep 2014

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Originally Posted by Wizoz2

May not be the right three to post in.
Q, Kanmani and other gurus need your help.
I am looking to move to a new employer on EAD. The job offered would likely be "Software QA Engineer" and GC was filed for "Software Engineer". Need your thoughts on AC21. Would it be okay to accept the position of Software QA Engineer and if so to what extent do the duties need to match for AC21 approval. BTW My AC21 has been pending for more than 180 days. I am looking to some insights on how to approach this situation and need to give an answer ASAP.

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Job duties described in the perm should be same or similar in the new employment, which doesn't mean it must match word by word. Job title needn't be the same.

Just for an example, an cardiologist described in the perm cannot take-up a neurologist job with the second employer.

I request Q to give you a better example.

Wiz - In your particular case I think SE vs QA-SE doesn't sound much difference to me. I am not a lawyer but this job switch seems ok to me.

If you need a good peace of mind then just ask a lawyer online somewhere. Should be able to get an answer for 50 bucks or so.

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

Job duties described in the perm should be same or similar in the new employment, which doesn't mean it must match word by word. Job title needn't be the same.

Just for an example, an cardiologist described in the perm cannot take-up a neurologist job with the second employer.

I request Q to give you a better example.

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Hi Wiz,
It should not be a problem MY perm was filed with QA engineer profile but I moved to a more SR Proj/Program Manager role. TO be frank USCIS does not care as long as u remain in IT . Plus one thing to all friends out here AC21 is not mandatory;when u change jobs u already invoked AC21 so I dont think it is wise to send AC21 change notification to USCIS, only if u feel ur underlying I140 should be revoked (past 180 days is no issues) only then send notification to USCIS.Best is to keep mum. This is from personal experience.

Hello to old friends Q,Kanmani,MAtt JJ

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Originally Posted by venki080

Hi Wiz,
It should not be a problem MY perm was filed with QA engineer profile but I moved to a more SR Proj/Program Manager role. TO be frank USCIS does not care as long as u remain in IT . Plus one thing to all friends out here AC21 is not mandatory;when u change jobs u already invoked AC21 so I dont think it is wise to send AC21 change notification to USCIS, only if u feel ur underlying I140 should be revoked (past 180 days is no issues) only then send notification to USCIS.Best is to keep mum. This is from personal experience.

Hello to old friends Q,Kanmani,MAtt JJ

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Thanks I have had my EAD for close to 2 years now. And my 140 was approved in 2011. My 485 has been pending for close to 2 years and I have had my EAD 2 years now. My question was specifically in regards to job duties and title.

Hi gurus, when can I expect EAD with 04/13/2009 PD under EB2 category?

Guys,

Thanks for the very useful thread that you have going on here!

Our PD is mid-Dec 2008, EB2I, which according to info here could become current this summer. We had filed I-485 last time we became current end of 2011, at which time we got our EAD and AP, before retrogressing again. Our status on the uscis website since that time till now is initial review. Few Qs:
1/ Don't they do something like pre-adjudication for applicants whose 485 applications they have received and whose dates may likely become current in the next several months? If so, how would I know if they are pre-adjudicating my case?
2/ Is there anything else I have to do / documents to submit again when the dates get current now? - my sense is USCIS has all the documents they need when we made the initial I-485 application.
3/ Is there any possibility that we may again miss the GC even if we become current this time- if we are current for only a month or so (absent other issues with documents or RFEs, etc)?

Thanks for reading and your time!

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Originally Posted by sahithi

Hi gurus, when can I expect EAD with 04/13/2009 PD under EB2 category?

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55% chance that you get it this year... If not this year then you should get it next year...

Hi Gurus,

Can someone predict when I will get my EAD and GC realistically? My EB2I PD is 02/26/2010. I have not filed my I485 yet when there was an opportunity last time.

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Originally Posted by Jagan01

55% chance that you get it this year... If not this year then you should get it next year...

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Thank You Jagan.

Hi all,

Just wanted to give you an update frm my side. I received an RFE for both my wife's and my case.
PD - 08/04/2008
AC21 filed in July 2013

I changed my job again in Dec 2013 so will be sending another AC21 with the rfe response.

My rfe is for employment verification and for my wife they asked for marriage bona fides.

For marriage docs, i am planning to send the following docs -

1) copy of lease
2) 2012 and 2013 tax returns
3) car insurance
4) renters insurance
5) bank statement
6) marriage certificate
7) health insurance card

Is there something else i need to keep in mind before responding to this RFE ?

Thanks

Jack - AC21 doesn't require you to file any notification with USCIS. So if i were you I would tell them AC21 unless asked.

As per marriage docs - again .. it all depends what they have asked for. What you intend to send seems like an overkill. If all they want to know if it's a real marriage then marriage certificate and proof of cohabitation (i.e. liviing together) for last x number of years should be sufficient. Filing tax together or having joint bank accounts is not a requirement at all.

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Originally Posted by JackD1

Hi all,

Just wanted to give you an update frm my side. I received an RFE for both my wife's and my case.
PD - 08/04/2008
AC21 filed in July 2013

I changed my job again in Dec 2013 so will be sending another AC21 with the rfe response.

My rfe is for employment verification and for my wife they asked for marriage bona fides.

For marriage docs, i am planning to send the following docs as all these docs have my wife's name also-

1) copy of lease
2) 2012 and 2013 tax returns
3) car insurance
4) renters insurance
5) bank statement
6) marriage certificate
7) health insurance card

Is there something else i need to keep in mind before responding to this RFE ?

Thanks

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Jack - AC21 doesn't require you to file any notification with USCIS. So if i were you I would tell them AC21 unless asked.

As per marriage docs - again .. it all depends what they have asked for. What you intend to send seems like an overkill. If all they want to know if it's a real marriage then marriage certificate and proof of cohabitation (i.e. liviing together) for last x number of years should be sufficient. Filing tax together or having joint bank accounts is not a requirement at all.

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Thanks for replying Q.

My lawyer keeps insisting that we need to file AC21 also. Might me because they want to make more money in fees, but i am going to follow her advice since i am working on EAD and dont have an H1. Don't wantto take any kind of risk.

Once i respond to RFE (by end of this month) and assuming my date becomes current in July, how long do you think it takes to get the actual green card?

I will be moving to a diff city in May,Jun and will have to file a change of address that time, hope that wouldn't trigger another rfe.

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Originally Posted by JackD1

Hi all,

Just wanted to give you an update frm my side. I received an RFE for both my wife's and my case.
PD - 08/04/2008
AC21 filed in July 2013

I changed my job again in Dec 2013 so will be sending another AC21 with the rfe response.

My rfe is for employment verification and for my wife they asked for marriage bona fides.

For marriage docs, i am planning to send the following docs -

1) copy of lease
2) 2012 and 2013 tax returns
3) car insurance
4) renters insurance
5) bank statement
6) marriage certificate
7) health insurance card

Is there something else i need to keep in mind before responding to this RFE ?

Thanks

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Jack - AC21 doesn't require you to file any notification with USCIS. So if i were you I would tell them AC21 unless asked.

As per marriage docs - again .. it all depends what they have asked for. What you intend to send seems like an overkill. If all they want to know if it's a real marriage then marriage certificate and proof of cohabitation (i.e. liviing together) for last x number of years should be sufficient. Filing tax together or having joint bank accounts is not a requirement at all.

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Jack
Its interesting (and very promising) that you got a RFE. I agree with Q - all those docs are overkill. Marriage certificate and a lease / home title should be sufficient. I don't if your passport includes it but the backcover of my passport includes my wife's name..so that's another option. Just ask your lawyer. I'm sure he/she has a recommendation.

As for timing, once approved it takes 30-45 days to get the physical card (probably less). If you are moving in May/ June, it really doesn't matter since you would be at your new address before getting current. Just make sure you file the AR11 as soon as you move.

Good luck! I'm hoping to be right behind you in the approval queue.

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Originally Posted by vizcard

Jack
Its interesting (and very promising) that you got a RFE. I agree with Q - all those docs are overkill. Marriage certificate and a lease / home title should be sufficient. I don't if your passport includes it but the backcover of my passport includes my wife's name..so that's another option. Just ask your lawyer. I'm sure he/she has a recommendation.

As for timing, once approved it takes 30-45 days to get the physical card (probably less). If you are moving in May/ June, it really doesn't matter since you would be at your new address before getting current. Just make sure you file the AR11 as soon as you move.

Good luck! I'm hoping to be right behind you in the approval queue.

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Thanks Viz, i am going to talk to my lawyer and see if i don't need to send that many docs.

Yes, i plan to file AR11 as soon as i get keys to my home. BTW, is that something that can be done online or i need to call uscis... haven't researched much yet.

And for the GC, amen brother.. hopefully this will be the year that will end years of misery for both of us as well as others ...

Getting GC is dependent on country and category. Not sure what yours is ... but the time to get GC after filing 485 can be as little as 3-4 months if you are not EB2IC or EB3I.

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Originally Posted by JackD1

Thanks for replying Q.

My lawyer keeps insisting that we need to file AC21 also. Might me because they want to make more money in fees, but i am going to follow her advice since i am working on EAD and dont have an H1. Don't wantto take any kind of risk.

Once i respond to RFE (by end of this month) and assuming my date becomes current in July, how long do you think it takes to get the actual green card?

I will be moving to a diff city in May,Jun and will have to file a change of address that time, hope that wouldn't trigger another rfe.

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Thanks for the info .. mine is EB2I

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Originally Posted by JackD1

Thanks Viz, i am going to talk to my lawyer and see if i don't need to send that many docs.

Yes, i plan to file AR11 as soon as i get keys to my home. BTW, is that something that can be done online or i need to call uscis... haven't researched much yet.

And for the GC, amen brother.. hopefully this will be the year that will end years of misery for both of us as well as others ...

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it can be done online.
https://egov.uscis.gov/coa/displayCOAForm.do

Jack :

Pardon if this is a naive question - but how come they are processing your case if it your date is not current yet? Is this part of pre-adjudication?

My PD is 12/17/08, and there has been absolutely no change from "initial review" status, which is how it has been since when we filed I-485 in January 2012 till now.

Thanks, and good luck!

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Originally Posted by JackD1

Thanks for the info .. mine is EB2I

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Originally Posted by jimmys

My PD is 07/17/2009 and I haven't filed my 485 yet. Is there a chance, however slim it may be, to file my 485 this year?

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Thank you Jagan01,Kanmani,Imdeng,sportsfan33 and vizcard.

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

Edit: Let me add though that I don't see July 2009 becoming current, sorry! There is an additional 7K demand up to June 2009. So you are looking at 10.5K up to 2009, an additional 7K in 2009 PLUS an additional 3-6K of porters. That equals about 20-23K spillover, which has to be historic. Of course, the date can push further than the available numbers in order to minimize wastage, but July seems too much on the wrong side of the border.

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I never thought, even in my wildest dreams ,I will get GC by this summer/fall. I just want to file my 485 as I missed last time. Thanks!!

The fact that they are pre-adjudicating latter half of 2008 is good news indeed, my PD is 17 Oct 08 and I'm hoping this'll be the year for 08 filers. Long way to go though, the date has to get current and they have to actually approve the file. We've got to make it through in those 4 months, start praying!

Helpful-leo: the status has proven to be a rather flaky indicator of what's actually happening behind the scenes at USCIS.

I've been curious about the Jan inventory, no sign of it and it is almost Feb.

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Originally Posted by helpful_leo

Jack :

Pardon if this is a naive question - but how come they are processing your case if it your date is not current yet? Is this part of pre-adjudication?

My PD is 12/17/08, and there has been absolutely no change from "initial review" status, which is how it has been since when we filed I-485 in January 2012 till now.

Thanks, and good luck!

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That is what i am guessing. I sent 485 in April 2012 and there was no movement till sept/oct of last year (Was in Acceptance state). Then it moved to initial review. On feb10th, i got the case status update of RFE sent.

Thanks triplet. Is there a better way of knowing if the file has been touched at all? If I remember correctly, we were current for just 1 month in Jan 2012.

Also, am I right to gather from your post that if things get current this summer, it would typically last for 4 months?

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Originally Posted by triplet

The fact that they are pre-adjudicating latter half of 2008 is good news indeed, my PD is 17 Oct 08 and I'm hoping this'll be the year for 08 filers. Long way to go though, the date has to get current and they have to actually approve the file. We've got to make it through in those 4 months, start praying!

Helpful-leo: the status has proven to be a rather flaky indicator of what's actually happening behind the scenes at USCIS.

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