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kd2008,Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
It can't be 1.5 times! Just look at PERM & 485data for I&C for CY 2006
I&C 2006 PD Certified in FY2006 = 18,011
I&C 2006 PD Certified FY2007-11 =14,746
I&C 2006 PD Total = 32,757
EB2I&C 2006 PD 485 known demand =27,159+porting based on Dec 2009 inventory update.
Ratio ~= 0.83
Note:This is only for discussion purposes for people like to get EB2IC ballpark estimate based on PERM approvals.
Cool, thanks for correcting.Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
EB3 I+C inventory with PD 2006 in Dec 2009 inventory report was ~ 12,300. So roughly the split was 70/30.
kd2008,Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
Agree with 70/30 split for EBI&C, this was discussed and confirmed earlier also.
In-addition this discussion brings two interesting observations
1. In any given CY(2007-2010) EB2IC demand is less than 30k
2. EB2IC known demand(2007PWMB - Q1CY2011) will be about 85k
Veni, thanks a bunch! You are a peach!Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
imechanix,Quote:
Originally Posted by imechanix
One thing you might want to consider is the cycle time for the PWMB I-485 to be adjudicated.
I'll use 8 months as an example only.
Essentially, dates to the end of Feb 2007 are Current from July 2011 and the applications probably won't reach the Service Centers (from the lockboxes) until August.
They only count as demand to DOS when USCIS requests a visa, so that wouldn't happen until March/April 2012, when the application is adjudicated.
Until that time, the Cut Off dates wouldn't be affected by PWMB / New applicants. Probably only Porting cases would be counted as demand, since they have underlying pre-adjudicated I-485 cases.
Say for the May 2012 VB, that more unused visas are announced from EB1. Then the numbers per month jump and retrogression is less likely.
Given all that, I don't think the dates would ever retrogress as far back as Jan 2007. There aren't that many early PWMB and they won't become demand until well after October 2012.
The largest PWMB demand might not appear until more visas were available from EB1. This might have the effect of stalling forward movement, but it likely wouldn't cause further retrogression.
It is something to consider at least.
On a different topic, Ron Gotcher's newsletter yesterday discussed 3 key reasons behind delays in 140.
1. Ability to pay is being questioned
2. 3 Yr undergrad degree is being questions regardless whether teh applicant has MS or PHD from US.
3. Employer-employee relationship in consulting companies is being scrutinized.
The net effect is increase in I-140 inventory. This of course bodes well for current EB2IC backlog reduction. However, here is something that is baffling to me. Hope somebody might be able to throw light on this.
If you look at the increase in pending 140 (P), it is incosistent with the receipts (R) and approvals (A) and awaiting customer action increase (W).
Theoretically P = R - A - W
But somehow the formula doesn't work on the data published on USCIS dashboard.
Wonder if anybody has any better insights?
Q - that is on the processing delays. But why is there less demand itself for EB1?
Q, that means the USCIS data is unreliable. I am quoting form a trackitt thread:
Quote:
They said that they may be able to get more accurate up-to-date information once they go completely digital, but not right now, as they need to compile the data from different sources and match it to their database along with other checks and balances.
Less demand is in terms of visas due to delay in 485 processing. But 485 receipts are not low by any means.Quote:
Originally Posted by vishnu
People who port from EB3 to EB2 should be counted with the prior PD and not the new PERM filing date. I just wanted to bring it up so you don't double count these numbers. If the estimates are correct then ~ 5-6K GCs every year goes to this porting bucket. So we might have to reduce ~ 2800 K each year in PERM numbers.
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Not had time to think about it much, but one immediate thought is that not all of A reduces P.
Completions (either Approvals or Denials) also come from the Pre-adjudicated total, so it would only be a % of A.
The basis of the pre-adjudicated total has also changed with the return of cases from LO in January 2011.
As others have said, the data is probably not good enough either for such precise calculations.
Hope that helps.
ok thanks Q - I thought that applications were also lower...
Q I believe that this discrepancy can be explained in the following way. In their jargon Completion means approval's + denials and essentially 1 record has just 1 status for the month, so if for any reason a case see's an approval or denial in the same month the report is only showing it as a completion, even though every thing would have started as a receipt. The dashboard is kind of more intended towards management reporting with management really more interested in seeing the volumes ball park. The equation you give will add up if all states of the application are captured by the dates within every month.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Teddy - whats the E2E memo?
Spec I am not sure about this. I think whether a 485 is preadjudicated or not the corresponding 140 case would be classified as P or W until it is approved or denied.
Secondly, 485 adjudication will not happen unless the underlying 140 is approved. So not sure what you mean by preadj.
However I do agree that the data itself is not quite clean and so probably not much helpful.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Teddy completions do include denials as well. So the formula should still work. I don't understand the logic behind what you are saying. Please illustrate.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
This must be applied ONLY to H1b, but Ron Gotcher feels that it's being applied to 140 cases as well.
Quote:
Originally Posted by vishnu
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Actually it is my fault. I was talking about I-485 dashboard figures rather than the I-140 you were actually talking about. I really must learn to read more carefully!
Q consider the folowing scenarios. So if the case is receipted in the same month and at the end of the month its pending its fine however next month this record gets orphaned there is another possibility its receipted then it goes to RFE (W) and then pending then this equation breaks down. What if they are recording only the latest even then the equation breaks down. So at best the dashboard is a snapshot.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I thought "Ability to Pay" can be an issue for all categories of employment based GC sponsorship. For example, if the employer mentions that the employee will get paid X in the labor certification, then the employer has to show that it is capable of paying X to the employee irrespective of the category of GC sponsorship. The payscale in EB2 might be a bit higher than EB3 but often the difference might not be that significant.Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
I don’t know if my colleague was taken for a ride but for EB2 they will definitely scrutinize to the fullest as you say the difference may not be that much in terms of the numbers but probably the justification of high salary in a small company is harder to give they would ask for the details of every employee in the company. With EB3 maybe they are a little lenient. Like for example the position is senior analyst its harder to justify for a smaller company they have to justify how many analysts / developers what each of them is paid and then what the senior analyst will pay, this literally goes beyond what exactly ability to pay should be. The practice of EB3 being safe is still being sold to people who a) Don't know about EB3-I situation b) Who are in their late H1 years and want to play it safe for a 3 yr extension.Quote:
Originally Posted by pch053
Hi Gurus & other members,
Though I've been following several immigration forums, I never posted enthing anywhere. So this is my first post and here I must say that "this is THE BEST forum in terms of prediction, facts, statistics, mutual respect ...." Thanks to Q for starting such a wonderful forum and thanks to all other gurus and members for their valuable and sincere input.
My PD is June 05 2008. Can you please let me know how soon I can "file my 485" (bast case and worst case) based on the available data and assumptions? Really appreciate your help.
Cheers
Tom
Teddy
We will never know. But I common sense would say if tehy make it W then its no longer P. Anyway ... but just wanted to point out that 140 data is not useful because of tehse issues.
PCH you are absolutely right. The issue however is not ability to pay for all cases. Its really situations where the employer has applied multiple 140s for teh same candidate, that's where USCIS is asking ability to pay for all those different positions. I would imagine these kind of situations are lingering on the border of fraud.Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Quote:
Originally Posted by pch053
perhaps as soon as Sep-Nov 2011 (60% chance) or as late as (sep-nov 2013 - 100% chance).
p.s. - Regardless when you file, you should have a GC w you by Dec 2013 (assuming u r EB2).
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tomtuat
I believe Q meant Sep-Nov 2012
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Ability to pay was a standard RFE for small companies all the time. For bigger companies, USCIS generally never bothered about ability to pay. Not sure whether Ron means USCIS is going after bigger companies too.Quote:
Originally Posted by pch053
Anyways this is not an issue as most of the companies take A2P into consideration before they apply for GC for any employee.
Q, Veni, Spec,
Would be possible to create a data page similar to i140 to i1485 Ratios (From DHS Year Books of Statistics) but with PERM certifications to i1485 Ratios?
I know this wouldn't be as accurate at the i140 to i485 ratios due to nearly 8 months of cycle time for ROW and inherent backlogs for EB2 I & C, EB3 all, but it will give us some sense of what percentage of PERM certifications do get translated into i485 filings.
Thanks!
Thanks Q and Leo!
I hope Q meant 2012 :)
Quote:
Originally Posted by leo07
I have been following this thread and understand that we probably have visibility into late 2007 or even mid 2008 PDs. But based on the PERM/I140 and other data for post-July 2007 cases...do you guys have a rough estimate of when the VB might reach early 2009 [My pd is Jan 2009 :( ]. Any likely of this happening towards end of FY2012 (July-Sep 2012)??
As always, thanks for your excellent analysis and efforts.
first time poster.
The earlier posts seem to indicate that the USCIS may move the PD to mid 2008 some time in Oct 2011 and then retrogress in Nov or Dec 2011.
I think regardless, it would be prudent to keep your documentation ready to pull the trigger as soon as it becomes current.
Veni,Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
I am looking at Jan 2007-July 2007 data:
EB2I&C 2007 PD 485 known demand from Dec 2009 inventory = 15800
I&C 2007 PD certified in jan-july 2007 = 11500 (from PERM Breakdowns For PD (including Monthly Breakdown), 16326 - 4842 = 11484)
Surely, here the ratio is 1.4
Please help me understand how the ratio was 0.83 in 2006 but 1.4 in jan-july 2007.
I don't think the calculation for 2006 is valid, since the Inventory for 2006 cases never represented the full picture.Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
PDs in 2006 were Current both in July 2007 and August-September 2008. By the time the Inventory was first published in 2009, numbers had already been approved and it is impossible to know the original starting number. China had reached January 2006 in June 2007 and Sep-Nov 2007.
It is unlikely that many (if any) 2007 cases were approved in July 2007, as all were new applications and the dates had never moved into 2007 until the July VB. All Inventories published should therefore represent the total number of cases filed to date.
Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I agree 2006 was current few months before the first inventory was out.
In any event adding EB3IC inventory till July 2007 to EB2IC and assuming minimal denials/rejections at 140, then 485 data is only representing 85% of the EBIC labor certifications?
EBIC(2+3) 485 ~= 21,000( Jan 2007 - Jul 2007)
PERM certifications~= 11,500
lol. your PD is in 2008, you must hope that Q meant 2011 :)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tomtuat
I see. Thanks for the explanation. So I am going to stick with my 1.5 multiplier. :pQuote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
leo.....I think Q meant worst case is 2012 as its likely that the buffer date will move till Apr 2008, hence Tom may have to wait for 1 more year :(
Quote:
Originally Posted by leo07
I am a big fan of this blog. I have followed this blog for several weeks. I really like the data analysis done by you guys. This blog contains so much useful information. Now I just want to publish my first post to thank you guys for the great work!
That is why I said it is impossible to know the original number. It would come down to the luck of the draw on how fast the PERM was approved and whether the case was adjudicated when the window was actually open.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
My personal opinion is that you can submit 485 in this summer or next summer. It depends on how many new applications DOS wants to admit in this summer. I estimate there are around 35k C&I EB2 new demand before June 2008. If DOS wants to prepare 35k for next year's spillover, you will have some chance to submit 485. I think the worst case is that you can submit in the next summer. I am confident we will have at least 15-20k spillover next year despite of the slow processing speed of EB1 and EB2 ROW. I am not a guru. Just my personal opinion.
That assumes that the Inventory is the whole universe.Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
There are CP cases in addition (15% for India and 30-50% for China in EB3) and an unknown number of cases still awaiting interview at LO.
The Inventory almost certainly under represents the true numbers, especially for EB3.
What I did was I calculated the numbers from 06/2006 to 07/2007. VB never crossed 06/2006 after 2007.