EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

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Originally Posted by seattlet

Spec,
i agree with you. It is a choice of jam today or tomorrow for most folks. However for folks in PD 2007 it is a matter of getting GC this year or next (and because of PERM slowdown they might
be able to get it this year which would be a big difference to them). Similarly for first time filers in 2007 and early 2008 it might help them to get EAD this year vs next. That would also
make a big difference in their lives too. Agreed that dates would regrogress but this slowdown is preferable for EB2 I folks with 2007 and early 2008 PDs since without the slowdown EB2 I folks would have not got much this year and would have been waitin till May / Jun 2014 for any meaningful COD move.

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seattlet,

Thanks for the reply.

I was talking about the bigger picture as you pointed out. Believe me, I am acutely aware of the difference a few thousand extra numbers can make to the COD movement this year.

I would be a "jam today" person as well under the circumstances and I wouldn't believe anyone who said otherwise.

Good luck with the upcoming September VB. I imagine you are sweating on it more than most if I read your PD correctly.

I look forward to a busy day tomorrow updating all the new approvals. I hope to see yours in September if you already have an I-485 pending.

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Originally Posted by MATT2012

if porting hits the lower range of expectations, together with the EB2ROW drops we are noticing in trackitt could help EB2I make a bigger jump. Another area where visa numbers are blocked is in EB2C's additional share of SO visas. if EB2C stalls where it is today even in next bulletin, EB2I will receive some more visas. That would possibly indicate, how spillovers are divided between retrogressed countries when cut off dates are different. My numbers have blocked EB2C with its share of additional SO, if I am not wrong Specs calculation also blocks it. Next bulletin may possibly be the first opportunity to understand DoS interpretation of SO rules in that regard.

There is a 3K difference(4K Vs. 7K) in porting assumptions+ 1-1.4 K blocking for EB2C is equivalent to support a 3+ months difference in calculation.

Spec: Thanks for updating the PERM data, it definitely helps in our early calculations for next fiscal.

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Matt,
I do not think China will be receiving part of SO.

Here is example from FY 2009:
In FY 2009 SO were divided between India and China as per PD movement. India and China both had same PD of 8 Jan 05 in Sep 2009. China did not receive 7% of SO, they received only 242 visas out of 7545 SO. (3.2 %)

Spec,
thanks. I also hope that things get moving again so that apr 2008 will be current this month so as to file 485. I see it has 30 to 50 % probability to go there.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

seattlet,

Thanks for the reply.

I was talking about the bigger picture as you pointed out. Believe me, I am acutely aware of the difference a few thousand extra numbers can make to the COD movement this year.

I would be a "jam today" person as well under the circumstances and I wouldn't believe anyone who said otherwise.

Good luck with the upcoming September VB. I imagine you are sweating on it more than most if I read your PD correctly.

I look forward to a busy day tomorrow updating all the new approvals. I hope to see yours in September if you already have an I-485 pending.

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Originally Posted by erikbond101

Matt,
I do not think China will be receiving part of SO.

Here is example from FY 2009:
In FY 2009 SO were divided between India and China as per PD movement. India and China both had same PD of 8 Jan 05 in Sep 2009. China did not receive 7% of SO, they received only 242 visas out of 7545 SO. (3.2 %)

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Erikbond,

When EB2 China and India share the same PD, the visas are allocated based on earliest PD. As EB2I have more cases, the % allocation to EB2I is higher. Also for FY2009 we don't have any data to analyze the date movements, as first inventory was published only towards end of FY2009. This fiscal year, EB2C and EB2I are both retrogressed countries. The literal interpretation of law is SOs can be allocated to retrogressed countries without the 7% consideration. In the current scenario, I have not found anything that stops allocation to EB2C, as both India and China are oversubscribed.

As the interpretation of the law is not 100% clear, I was little cautious in my calculation. You could see same level of conservativeness in my porting number calculation. We may know DoS interpretation in the next bulletin, based on EB2C's movement. Perhaps we may have to wait until Visa Statistics release sometime in next FY, to fully understand the interpretation.

I would love to see EB2I movement beyond my realistic calculation. I have fairly reasonable numbers to support a higher movement, though I don't put it out. I am sure majority of the individuals who calculate here, have spreadsheets full of different combinations. Being mentioned that, risks get much higher once we cross April 1st,2008. I hate to say this, but even at this late stage in this fiscal, EB1 consumption is a difficult call.

Even my internal best case scenario, will not come close to current EB2C cut off date.

Hope for the best.

Cheers!!

Matt

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Originally Posted by erikbond101

Matt,
I do not think China will be receiving part of SO.

Here is example from FY 2009:
In FY 2009 SO were divided between India and China as per PD movement. India and China both had same PD of 8 Jan 05 in Sep 2009. China did not receive 7% of SO, they received only 242 visas out of 7545 SO. (3.2 %)

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erikbond101,

A slight correction. It is 7% of any Fall Down, not 7% of Spillover, since any Fall Across within EB2 does not increase the EB2 allocation.

It is true that EB2-C failed to receive the full 7% on that basis in FY2009, but the shortfall was only 89 visas (3,045 vs 3,134).

That is well within the error margin inherent in the visa allocation process.

In all other years, EB2-IC were sharing spillover and both Countries exceeded the 7% limit comfortably anyway.

To put it into perspective, EB2-IC combined has received more visas than spillover was available in every year from FY2009 onwards (5k in total). Last year it was more than 1.6k. EB3 has had to under consume for the numbers to stay within the overall EB allocation. In FY2009, the overall EB limit was exceeded by nearly 1k. I think that says something about the madhouse that the month where visas run out is. Clearly, DOS can not react quickly enough to impose internal retrogression.

At best, I think we can only say there is no definitive proof either way. One way or another, we shall find out his FY, unless EB2-I matches the EB2-C Cut Off Date.

Spec,

I have a question about Fall Across Vs Falldown.

Let us say where EB2WW(ROW+M+P) required more visas than their Quarterly allocation in quarters I & II, and the falldown from EB1 was used to issue those visas. Quarter III and in July there are spare visas within EB2WW, could that be transferred to EB2I as Fall Across.

Thanks,

Matt

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Originally Posted by MATT2012

Spec,

I have a question about Fall Across Vs Falldown.

Let us say where EB2WW(ROW+M+P) required more visas than their Quarterly allocation in quarters I & II, and the falldown from EB1 was used to issue those visas. Quarter III and in July there are spare visas within EB2WW, could that be transferred to EB2I as Fall Across.

Thanks,

Matt

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Matt,

Not sure how to answer your question.

I'm not entirely happy with the answer below because I'm not entirely sure I've understood your question fully - you might have to expand it a bit so that my feeble mind can understand better and attempt to answer it.


Rather than think of Fall Down and Fall Across (which have specific laws governing them), it is better to think of it as under use against the 27% of total EB usage allowed in each of the first 3 quarters (and it is complicated by that number changing part way through the year).

The reason I say that is that the normal spillover rules don't apply. It is use within the overall 27% that is important at that stage.

For instance, if EB3 was under using, then those numbers could be used to give EB2 (or any other Category) extra visas if necessary. That couldn't happen under spillover rules. Later in the year, clearly EB3 would have to over use to reach their allocation.

Similarly, if EB2 under used numbers, they could be be given to EB3 (or another Category) if those Categories suddenly had more demand.

Clearly, at some point (probably in Q4), the decision about releasing spillover has to be made, at which point the laws for Fall Down and Fall Across need to be observed.

The answer to your question, I think, is a qualified yes, but only if EB2-WW ultimately have spare visas to contribute and only when the decision to release spillover was made - the fact that they needed more earlier, for whatever reason, wouldn't be the deciding factor - a lack of continuing demand would be.

Would the current slowdown in PERM approvals have any significant impact on the time of EB2I retrogression in FY 2013? Instead of retrogressing dates from 1st Oct 2013, could CO decide to retrogress dates in Nov or Dec 2013 because of lack of demand due to slow PERM approvals. Any thoughts.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Matt,

Not sure how to answer your question.

I'm not entirely happy with the answer below because I'm not entirely sure I've understood your question fully - you might have to expand it a bit so that my feeble mind can understand better and attempt to answer it.


Rather than think of Fall Down and Fall Across (which have specific laws governing them), it is better to think of it as under use against the 27% of total EB usage allowed in each of the first 3 quarters (and it is complicated by that number changing part way through the year).

The reason I say that is that the normal spillover rules don't apply. It is use within the overall 27% that is important at that stage.

For instance, if EB3 was under using, then those numbers could be used to give EB2 (or any other Category) extra visas if necessary. That couldn't happen under spillover rules. Later in the year, clearly EB3 would have to over use to reach their allocation.

Similarly, if EB2 under used numbers, they could be be given to EB3 (or another Category) if those Categories suddenly had more demand.

Clearly, at some point (probably in Q4), the decision about releasing spillover has to be made, at which point the laws for Fall Down and Fall Across need to be observed.

The answer to your question, I think, is a qualified yes, but only if EB2-WW ultimately have spare visas to contribute and only when the decision to release spillover was made - the fact that they needed more earlier, for whatever reason, wouldn't be the deciding factor - a lack of continuing demand would be.

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Thanks Spec, your answer helped me. To summarize- within the 27% quarterly allocation ,visa can be allocated to any category(with some internal calculations of annual demand and date movements) and later in the fiscal year the balancing takes place, and from that point all the other spillover rules apply.

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Originally Posted by Niksammy

Would the current slowdown in PERM approvals have any significant impact on the time of EB2I retrogression in FY 2013? Instead of retrogressing dates from 1st Oct 2013, could CO decide to retrogress dates in Nov or Dec 2013 because of lack of demand due to slow PERM approvals. Any thoughts.

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The current slowdown in PERM approvals may not have a direct effect on EB2I retrogression timing. The number of EB2I pending cases from this fiscal may be the main driving factor for the next retrogression. The new interfile cases will only show up only around November, at the time of December bulletin. if CO decides to use a calculative approach, the retrogression will start in October. I am hoping next retrogression may not be as severe as this fiscal.

Just as Spec mentioned if the current slowdown in PERM is due to sequestration , then it should pick up speed from Sep 15th and go back to normal in 2 to 3 months. However if the slowdown worsens or continues, i predict EB2 WW will be under utilizing their allocated quarterly visas next year 1st quarter. and that might help EB2 I retrogress mildly or not retrogress at all. However
since CO does not do quarterly spillover, it might just be an arbitary decision on his part to retrogress Eb2 I even though EB2 WW does not utilize their quarterly allocation

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Originally Posted by MATT2012

The current slowdown in PERM approvals may not have a direct effect on EB2I retrogression timing. The number of EB2I pending cases from this fiscal may be the main driving factor for the next retrogression. The new interfile cases will only show up only around November, at the time of December bulletin. if CO decides to use a calculative approach, the retrogression will start in October. I am hoping next retrogression may not be as severe as this fiscal.

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Congrats to everyone who are about to receive their GC in coming days.

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Originally Posted by MATT2012

The current slowdown in PERM approvals may not have a direct effect on EB2I retrogression timing. The number of EB2I pending cases from this fiscal may be the main driving factor for the next retrogression. The new interfile cases will only show up only around November, at the time of December bulletin. if CO decides to use a calculative approach, the retrogression will start in October. I am hoping next retrogression may not be as severe as this fiscal.

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Did you mean to say new I-485 cases (Missed the boat twice)?

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

Did you mean to say new I-485 cases (Missed the boat twice)?

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Majority of the new I-485 filed between now and September will not show up first week of October, when the demand for November VB is published. Those case will show up after that and will be part of December VB. Also for the cases with existing I-485(EB3), with a new EB2 I-140 approved in September, may not show up in early October. I think we will see something like we witnessed this fiscal year, DD increasing marginally every month next fiscal due to pending cases from this fiscal.

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Originally Posted by MATT2012

The current slowdown in PERM approvals may not have a direct effect on EB2I retrogression timing. The number of EB2I pending cases from this fiscal may be the main driving factor for the next retrogression. The new interfile cases will only show up only around November, at the time of December bulletin. if CO decides to use a calculative approach, the retrogression will start in October. I am hoping next retrogression may not be as severe as this fiscal.

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So the key for where EB2I dates end up (or retrogress) in Oct/Nov 2013 will NOT ONLY be the number of EB2I pending cases from this year, but also the priority date of those pending cases. If most of the pending cases from current fiscal year fall in 2007 and 2008 range, dates should not retrogress beyond Jan 2007 for atleast 1-2 months(Oct - Nov 2013).

Once new porting demand and demand from first time i-485 filers from Aug-Sept 2013 shows up by the time Dec VB releases (around 10th Nov), CO may retrogress dates further. Is this a fair assumption?

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Originally Posted by Niksammy

So the key for where EB2I dates end up (or retrogress) in Oct/Nov 2013 will NOT ONLY be the number of EB2I pending cases from this year, but also the priority date of those pending cases. If most of the pending cases from current fiscal year fall in 2007 and 2008 range, dates should not retrogress beyond Jan 2007 for atleast 1-2 months(Oct - Nov 2013).

Once new porting demand and demand from first time i-485 filers from Aug-Sept 2013 shows up by the time Dec VB releases (around 10th Nov), CO may retrogress dates further. Is this a fair assumption?

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Niksammy,

My own personal thoughts.

I think pretty much everybody agrees that any new I-485 filed in August or September is not going to be approved this year and will not show in the Demand Data until adjudicated in several months time (in FY2014).

For me that is not the really the problem when thinking about when dates might retrogress in FY2014.

I think most people also agree that CO can not set a COD for September to use up the remaining visas that assumes all preadjudicated I-485 cases will be approved. Therefore there will be an element of contingency built into the date set.

That means that when the visas run out for this FY, there will almost certainly be people left behind who are Current and preadjudicated but for whom a visa was not available.

All those people will be counted as Demand going into FY2014.

Looking at past USCIS October Inventories, that number appears to have been about 2k, of which most should have already been in the Demand. I admit that is rather imprecise, but CO should have the means to make a reasonable estimate ahead of time.

Without releasing spillover, EB2-I quarterly allocation from October 1, 2013 is only 757 visas for each of the first three quarters.

For me at least, when retrogression starts and how much it will be initially, is driven more by the numbers left behind (or the estimate CO makes of that number) and the PD breakdown of those cases. New I-485 cases submitted late in FY2013 are a secondary consideration and those number will be added to the demand at a later date as they are adjudicated.

If all the queued up porting cases get approved in FY2013, than the retrogression might not initially be as severe as last year.

TBH, I can't make my mind up about what will actually happen.

Guys plz share approvals at http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...8092#post38092

Please keep discussions in the appropriate threads.

I'm going to start deleting posts rather than moving them if people don't do so.

Yes ... everybody pl. cooperate keeping discussions in appropriate threads only. Please respect moderators' time and effort.

Thank you all in advance for doing so.

Guys ... our hoster hostmonster is having issues with their servers. So this site is going up and down throughout the day. We have no control over it other than jsut waiting for hostmonster to recover.

AC - it was in the same company. No AC21 was required.

Hi Gurus
Following user on trackit got email regarding his EB2I PD June 2008 case,that card has been ordered.Does it mean the PD next month can move rapidly??

http://www.trackitt.com/uk-discussio...n-eb2i/page/23

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Guys ... our hoster hostmonster is having issues with their servers. So this site is going up and down throughout the day. We have no control over it other than jsut waiting for hostmonster to recover.

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Q,

Thanks for letting everybody know.

I was wondering whether it was just me!

USCIS botches things once a while. I wouldn't consider this norm even if it is true. It is also possible that this is his EAD card. I didn't catch in the thread if the user confirmed that this was GC.

As per whether dates will move to Jun 2008, it is certainly possible.

p.s. - As always - when I say date movement - I am really talking about backlog clearance. Dates as you know can move anywhere since USCIS / DOS do engage in jerky movements.

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Originally Posted by helooo

Hi Gurus
Following user on trackit got email regarding his EB2I PD June 2008 case,that card has been ordered.Does it mean the PD next month can move rapidly??

http://www.trackitt.com/uk-discussio...n-eb2i/page/23

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Are we expectiving VB or DD this Friday?. Or Should we wait for Next Monday. I feel we have fair chances for Friday VB release. I wish every one good luck who are already current and waiting to be current based on upcoming bulletin.

Guru's/Pandit's,

What is the (tentative) "prediction" for EB2I movement in the September VB? And/or summary of predicted movement?

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Originally Posted by seahawks2012

Guru's/Pandit's,

What is the (tentative) "prediction" for EB2I movement in the September VB? And/or summary of predicted movement?

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Please go back a couple of pages. There's been s lot of discussion and estimation done already.

Hi,

I see predictions at one of the website as below..

http://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/07/sep...edictions.html

Attachment 499

Do not copy it from crappy blogspot. Their prediction/assumption is worst out there. You should post your prediction/assumption if you want.

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Originally Posted by erikbond101

Do not copy it from crappy blogspot. Their prediction/assumption is worst out there. You should post your prediction/assumption if you want.

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Do not call it crappy. I have been following that blog for a long time and I can tell that the person whoever maintains that blog does a lot of research and he/she has made really great effort in keeping the people up to date on GC issues.

It is easy to trash someone by calling it 'crappy'. Please think twice before you make such statements. It is a lot of genuine hardwork and not fair to call it 'trash' without any basis for your statement. Did you even follow what the predictions were for the last few months?? That blog's predictions were very close to the published PD date, and don't expect someone to post the exact PD as it is going to be. If someone knew what the future would be, then that person is definitely not a human. More important than the predictions there, the information on that blog is valuable.

That blog writer is not my relative nor my friend, but I had to make a point looking at how easy it is to just trash someone's hard work in one instant. Just because you find it crappy, do not make statements like that.

Well, lets agree to disagree...But that website is definitely crappy IMO...I have not found a single detailed analysis or number crunching but yes they have been providing prediction months after months without providing any base. We should only appreciate hard work that is genuine and again it may be hard work but definitely not genuine. I'm 95% sure he will be copying prediction from this website.
My objection is simple, provide numbers first, prediction later.

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Originally Posted by erikbond101

Do not copy it from crappy blogspot. Their prediction/assumption is worst out there. You should post your prediction/assumption if you want.

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I never saw this site before. Few things I liked about it ... Clear/neatly laid out prediction in VB format, links to explanation/analysis for few imp ones (EB2 India), Free & whoever is maintaining it is taking time to answer questions as well. I haven't yet had the chance to read through all the info there ... but they seem to be spot on for their AUG prediction (unless they changed it after it was out). Even if they are aggregating info from other websites /forums ... very nicely presented. Could not find anything crappy about it.

Generally I would agree that it takes a lot of time effort and commitment to maintain a website that provides predictions.

So the least we can do to respect that person's time and effort is to NOT copy ... rather simply provide a link saying here is a good site with some good info. This way his site gets some traffic. And then people will decide themselves if they like it or not.

I would also agree that there are many sites that have propped up. But it's a free country! So it's ok. I don't mind people copying our predictions as long as they mention our forum. But unfortunately I have rarely seen that happening.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Generally I would agree that it takes a lot of time effort and commitment to maintain a website that provides predictions.

So the least we can do to respect that person's time and effort is to NOT copy ... rather simply provide a link saying here is a good site with some good info. This way his site gets some traffic. And then people will decide themselves if they like it or not.

I would also agree that there are many sites that have propped up. But it's a free country! So it's ok. I don't mind people copying our predictions as long as they mention our forum. But unfortunately I have rarely seen that happening.

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Totally agree with you Q. The very nature of this info makes it very easy for others to simply lift the results of good analysis from sites like this and summarize it for their site. Unfortunately giving credit where its due will totally depend on the ethics of the person maintaining the site. There is really no good /logical way to conclude that the analysis has been copied from other sites. From an analysis standpoint this thread definitely provides the best there is. The customer base for sites like the stated blog, I guess, is different in that they would just like to know the prediction (preferably just one... not much about different analysis/opinions) ... :)

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Originally Posted by erikbond101

Do not copy it from crappy blogspot. Their prediction/assumption is worst out there. You should post your prediction/assumption if you want.

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Every one follows some forums, some of them only do predictions with available data.. I only follow, never predicted or commented on others..
I have been following this forum from last 4 years. I just posted whatever I saw, please trash it if don't like..

Q - Please remove it, no harsh feelings..Thank You.

No worries Sunil. Both you and Eric are entitled to your own opinions. I really don't have much to add.

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Originally Posted by indiasunil

Every one follows some forums, some of them only do predictions with available data.. I only follow, never predicted or commented on others..
I have been following this forum from last 4 years. I just posted whatever I saw, please trash it if don't like..

Q - Please remove it, no harsh feelings..Thank You.

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Any thoughts when the September DD comes out?

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Originally Posted by wheeler234

Any thoughts when the September DD comes out?

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Generally between 2nd friday of month and 10th business day.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Generally between 2nd friday of month and 10th business day.

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Nishant2200 taught me this trick. I went and looked up the September VB for the last 3 years and found out that it is posted on the 6th or 7th working day of the month. Hence I would expect it to be published on Thursday or Friday.

That being said, I dont think the DD will be published this month as it will have little significance.

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Originally Posted by natvyas

Nishant2200 taught me this trick. I went and looked up the September VB for the last 3 years and found out that it is posted on the 6th or 7th working day of the month. Hence I would expect it to be published on Thursday or Friday.

That being said, I dont think the DD will be published this month as it will have little significance.

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CO might still publish it but still it is of little use.

As it is DD is something I rarely used. It to me is like the classic definition of statistics. It can show the important parts while hiding the critical ones ;)

New I-485 Pending Inventory as of 7/17/2013. I don't if this was discussed already.

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20C...07-17-2013.pdf

I don't know how useful this is.

EB2-ROW drops to 7.7K in this compared to 10.2K in April 2013.

EB3-ROW goes up from 7.3K to 9.9K. But hardly any additions post-Aug-2007