Thanks Spec.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
With 3-5K SO Eb2I would barely cross Aug2007 in 2013, it might end at April2007 in Fy2013(coincidentally FY2011 started with Apr2007).
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Thanks Spec.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
With 3-5K SO Eb2I would barely cross Aug2007 in 2013, it might end at April2007 in Fy2013(coincidentally FY2011 started with Apr2007).
Can someone please clarify how to read the inventory data. Do the increase in the applications for the years before 2007 which are porting applications from the last inventory include all months from May to October or are they only from May 3rd to the end of May when dates became U. So for example is the increase from ~ 200 applications in the last inventory for 2004 to 450 now reflect all applications (interfiling letters) from May to october? Also are these all applications pending or only primary applicant applications?
Hi Openaccount, Spec is talking about 13K SO. Why are you considering only 3-5K SO?Quote:
Originally Posted by openaccount
FY 2012 started at Apr 2007 and finished with U. Also with 3-5K SO and 2800 of quota I dont think it will end at Apr 2007. Q and other Gurus who have done number crunching have been maintaining it will be much later than that and into 2008, I hope that prediction turns true. Remember till Apr 2007 was already cleared in 2011. And in 2013 all SO will be first used by India as China will move with their own quota.Quote:
Originally Posted by openaccount
DonDron,Quote:
Originally Posted by DonDron
I was talking about CO's best case of 13k in total (SOFAD) for EB2-IC - not spillover of 13k.
That translates to 7.4k spillover.
Ok. Still better than 3-5k. So best case scenario (and with straight assumptions) comes down to early 2008 for EB2-I. Which is what CO had said. So nothing new I am saying I guess.
Friends - November donations made to Red Cross towards victims of Sandy. Thread updated - http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...=3382#post3382
The June peak for EB2 Worldwide coincides with the last month before it retrogressed. I think what happened is a lot of applicants/lawyers moved quickly on NIW applications to make sure they got in before retrogression. This should even out going forward. The current PERM trends do not support such a high level of EB2-WW going forward, and there aren't that many NIW cases either.
Hello folks,
The prospects for hiring seem to be duller than last year (at least at this point in time) with the fiscal cliff looming on one side and obamacare/divided government etc on the other side.
Do you think there is a possibility that the amount of Spill Over to EB2I can be greater than anticipated if hiring slows down because of the aformentioned factors?
Thanks
Thanks Kanmani. Header Updated with my take on 2013 predictions.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Can we believe in the inventory figures? It shows increases for the years 2008 - 2010 from the may figures. Hows that possible when dates were not current. Another reason is it shows an increase in pre 2007 applications the porting applications by about 900 since may. If thats true then from May to October porting has been 900 which if you annualized it would be around 2000 way below reality. Spec or others any insight into this? Do you think we can believe the Eb2 I numbers
I'm not sure why you think that wouldn't happen.Quote:
Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000
As of May 3, 2012 ( the Inventory Date), the period when the Cut Off Dates had been at 01MAY10 had only just finished (3 days). USCIS certainly would not have processed all the cases at that time. I would be more surprised by how little the 2008-2010 figures have risen, given USCIS seem incapable of doing anything remotely real time.
There was then a further month (all of May) when the Cut Off Dates were at 15AUG07 before dates became Unavailable.
Yes but what abt the porting number. The increase in 900 captures all the months from May to October right since people would have still sent interfile letters to USCIS and they must have added that to the EB2I QueueQuote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
When you notice Jan inventory published in February captured just 10% of January filers . Whenever doors are open for filing they take time to add or delete the inventory numbers. Porting is even more difficult to bring it in to the inventory on time.Quote:
Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000
Those 900 approx applicants i guess might have filed between may to june 1st (excluded in the may inventory)
Bhagwat, is there any chance you misunderstood reading the inventory ? 2006 column jan to dec rows represents the Priority dates of the applicants falling on that particular months . If you are correct then your question is confusing.
agreed about porting. But its difficult to add porting cases when dates are current and they are closed. Now the dates were U hence any porting case would have been added correctly. Most who sent an interfile letter between end of may and october 4 would/should have made it to the inventory since those cases were not acted upon and closedQuote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
The cut off date was 15 Aug 2007 in the month of May'12. Why do you think those cases were added between june to october?
I am not saying they were added between june and oct. i am saying people with pd < 2007 who would have got their 140s approved when dates were U would have sent interfile letters. and USCIS must have added those cases to the inventory.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Below is a rough (and conservative) estimate for spillover from EB1 based on the inventory data.
1. For EB1 cases, as we all know, either I140 and I485 can be filed concurrently or separately. From Trackitt it appears that about 60% (+/- 3%) of the cases are filed concurrently (combined across EB1-A, B and C categories. Separately the ratios vary and are around 80% for EB1-C and 32% for EB1-A with EB1-B in the middle).
2. Let us say all the cases that the inventory shows under PD of July and August 2012 are concurrent cases (very likely). The total is 3304 cases with average of 1652 cases per month. These then represent 60% of the cases filed in these two months (the rest of the cases filed in these two months will be under older PDs). So a total of 2753 cases (1652 / 0.6) per month are being filed under EB1 on average. There shouldn't have been a lot of approvals for concurrent cases filed in July/August 2012 by the time inventory was published in October 2012.
3. If 12 months worth of applications are approved every year then this gives a total usage of 33K (2753 times 12) for EB1 leaving a spillover of 7K from EB1.
Overall the calculation is conservative, spillover should be higher. Any thoughts by others ?
Thanks for the link Kanmani.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
I think they were added in the month of may itself. Somebody with real time experience in porting might clear your doubts.Quote:
Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000
sbhagwat2000,Quote:
Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000
I'm going to use Ron Gotcher's terms here, because I know you have been there.
USICIS can INTERFILE all they want, as that only means consolidating the A-file with the information and papers.
USCIS CANNOT SUBSTITUTE the basis of the pending I-485 from EB3 to EB2 until the PD FOR EB2 IS CURRENT.
Until substitution is done, the case will not show in the EB2 Inventory, because it is not an EB2 I-485 case. Nor will it show in the Demand Data, since a visa cannot be requested until substitution has happened.
The backlog of cases pre 2007 is only indicative of a rising number of porting cases in general in the Inventories. 1,884 in October 2012 - 1,196 in May 2012 - 1,610 in January 2012.
It is not indicative of 4 months worth of total porting. It can only appear as the Cut Off Date moves forward and very little will have been added at the date of the Inventory.
I suspect there are going to be 2 camps. Those that believe the above and those that don't.
It is not worth further discussion.
Q - Great to see that you are still maintaining your original projection. Those kind of projections have become very rare these days . There is so much conservativeness on this blog these days that people have almost forgotten other possibilities. Eventually what ever is going to happen till end of FY 2013 will happen and no one knows exactly how things will pan out so reminding people of other possibilities was very important. Your post does exactly that. Thank you!Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Q - does your analysis consider usage during to EB2ROW not being current and porting? the way i read it, it appeared that it was just current year usage.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Viz - EB2ROW not being current - yes. But EB2ROW porting - only a swag. I need to look into it more. I do think there is signficant porting in ROW from 3 to 2.
Spec - if you are reading - I think that is the reason behind huge difference between PERM approvals and actual consumption for EB2ROW. If you remember we discussed this a few months back. I think we need to establish how much porting is in ROW. That will probably help us understand that gap.
Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I think vizcard probably meant porting in general, rather than specifically EB2-WW porting.
GhostWriter started the subject of the difference between PERM figures and actual approvals. I have discussed it with him. Probably he is the best person to give a view on the subject. NIW is certainly a factor.
As to EB2-WW porting - I think it is probably 2-3k but there's a lot going on with EB2-WW.
Q, the gap between expected applications from PERM and actual approvals for EB2-WW is quite large as you are saying.
See this link
Over last four years we have on average 20% approvals not accounted by PERM (6.6K / 32K)
Over last two years we have on average 27% approvals not accounted by PERM (9.5K / 34K)
Spec points to the EB2-NIW category to explain a big chunk of this gap. My initial guess was why would anyone in EB2-WW apply in EB2-NIW as EB2-WW is always current and it only saves a few months of PERM processing and EB2-NIW has its own hassles. But Trackitt does show high usage of EB2-NIW for ROW. It roughly shows 15% (+/- 4%) of total EB2-WW usage (checked for PDs 2010 and 2011).
Probably EB2-NIW category is used a lot by foreign physicians serving in under-served medical areas or other researchers.
Accounting for EB2-NIW leaves room for 5-10% (1.7K - 3.4K ) of porting in EB2-WW.
The annual visa report does not show actual green cards issued under EB2-NIW separately so it seems there is no other way to verify besides Trackitt estimate for now. I am also puzzled by the recent Murthy article that can be interpreted to suggest high porting in EB2-WW.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Sun
I am slight conservative but not much. If you look at last years prediction - the numbers came out right where we predicted but the distribution was skewed because 2008 were approved over 2007. Otherwise the dates would be in Jan 2008 right now! BTW - CO as it is in the business of painting the worst picture. So if nothing else -our prediction even if turns out too rosy - at least it keeps people cheerful!
However in fairness to others - there indeed is a lot of subjectivity and unknowns for two people to look at the same data and still be quite pessimistic or optimistic.
Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
Ghost - I actually take my words back. Any porting should be supported by PERM since one still needs a PERM for porting. So any difference is purely NIW+other things. This is different from EB2IC where not all new EB2 PERMs qualify for approvals. Whereas in case of EB2ROW - since category is current - all PERMs approved are eligible for 485 approval consideration the same year.Quote:
Originally Posted by GhostWriter
I would only use 27% which is the recent number. So if 15% is NIW then 12 is still unexplained. So perhaps we are better off bumping off ROW numbers 38% (to account for 27% of total 100% e.g. 27/73). Does that make sense?
Yes Q, it does.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Viz - that was a rough analysis. But EB2I porting is the reason I am thinking Sep 2008 instead of Dec 2008.
The EB2ROW being current or not doesn't really matter since the 485 inventory includes all the documentarily qualified cases and the analysis is always based on that.
Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
Looking at the recent inventories, here are my projections.
EB2-WW Natural Rate.
2.7K June figure includes July demand brought forward, while 0.7K and 0.6K figures for April and May are reduced by approvals for lucky few. Prior to April, it is close to 1K per month, but again reduced by approvals.Splitting hairs, assume 1.3K new EB2-WW native demand per month. For FY13, this will translate to 14.3K, since July-12 is already included and July-September of 2013 will get approved in FY14.
EB3-WW to EB2-WW porting
In 5 months between May and October inventories, EB3-WW for the first 6 months of 2007 has been reduced by 108 I-485's. Assume this reduction is due to porting. Multiply by 2 to get to full 2007 year. Multiply by 12/5 to get annual rate. Multiply by 5.5 years (part 06 and part 12 and full years in between). Multiply by 2 to account for CP. Net estimate is 5.7K
EB2-WW Backlog reduction
Current EB2-WW inventory is 18.2K. In Aug. 2009 it was 7.7K. Assume in FY13 inventory falls back by 10K.
Altogether EB2-WW consumption will be 30K. This leaves SO of 4.5k. If we add Spec's projection of 5K from EB-1, and zero from other sources, net SOFAD will be 15K so COD will approach first half of 2008. Almost assuredly, SO will not be released until the last quarter, especially as backlog reduction part of EB2-WW consumption is front-loaded and will scare CO into extreme conservatism.
I'll update the Facts & Data as I have time.
Total Decisions = 63,793
Certified PERM
China -------- 3,354
India ------- 30,306
Mexico ------- 1,209
Philippines -- 1,531
ROW --------- 18,216
Total ------- 54,616
AFRICA ----------- 939
ASIA ---------- 42,350
EUROPE --------- 4,730
NORTH AMERICA -- 4,538
OCEANIA ---------- 294
SOUTH AMERICA -- 1,765
Grand Total --- 54,616
Last year I think it was 28,900 for india. So its almost the same numberQuote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
I have now updated the PERM posts in FACTS & DATA with the Q4 FY2012 PERM data.
Since they are going to have very different movement, I have separated out China and India in this post (previously they were shown as combined figures).
PS to sportsfan
Compared to the 30,306 figure, last year was 31,273. See this post.
I think what would be more worrying is that PD2011 PERM for India is 29.3k compared to a normal around 23k. PD2011 is either going to be very slow year to move through or there were an awful lot of porting cases (or both). PD2012 is on course to be a similar number.
Could it be also more RFEs and audits in 2011 compared to years pastQuote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Friends - we have made some changes to the forum to prevent SPAM. There has been a ton of spam floating around and a lot of the Gurus and Moderators have been spending a lot of time keeping forum clear. So please don't mind our efforts to keep the forum free from SPAM.
Happy thanksgiving!
Below numbers are the new I-485 fillings. There is a decrease in the number.
Month/Service Center TSC NSC Total
June 7,383 9,787 17170
July 6,376 9,184 15560
Aug 4,521 8,136 12657
Sep 4,019 6,807 10826
Is this is bacause of the retrogress of the EB2 dates or demand is low?
redsox2009,Quote:
Originally Posted by redsox2009
I think the figures suggest it is mainly due to retrogression of the EB2 dates.
Receipts
Month -- NSC/TSC -- India ------ WW
Oct11 -- 17,562 -- 15JUL07 -- Current
Nov11 -- 20,977 -- 01NOV07 -- Current
Dec11 -- 23,708 -- 15MAR08 -- Current
Jan11 -- 27,506 -- 01JAN09 -- Current
Feb12 -- 30,551 -- 01JAN10 -- Current
Mar12 -- 26,717 -- 01MAY10 -- Current
Apr12 -- 18,341 -- 01MAY10 -- Current
May12 -- 15,802 -- 15AUG07 -- Current
Jun12 -- 17,170 -- UNAVAIL -- Current
Jul12 -- 15,560 -- UNAVAIL -- 01JAN09
Aug12 -- 12,657 -- UNAVAIL -- 01JAN09
Sep12 -- 10,826 -- UNAVAIL -- 01JAN09
redsox - thanks.
90% of the decrease seems to be due to EB2ROW retrogression. The difference extrapolated to full year is pretty much EB2ROW annual consumption.
It would be reasonable to expect overall 485 filings to bound in Oct Nov and Dec due to these backlogged folks waiting to file 485 in EB2ROW.
Quote:
Originally Posted by redsox2009
This is a Category for which no information on I-485 usage during the year seems to be posted.
In FY2011, it surprisingly contributed over 3.5k visas towards spillover. The main reason for this appears to be a drop in approvals for Ministers and Religious Workers compared to FY2010, when EB4 used 11k.
We do not know the numbers for FY2012 yet.
I have been looking at the figures for I-360, which is the equivalent of the I-140 for EB4.
I am not sure what to make of it. It doesn't really point to spare visas being available to spillover from EB4.
I-360 Receipts in FY2011 were 18.8K and in FY2012 were 19.2k according to USCIS.
In FY2011, there were 12.2k I-360 approved, with an average denial rate of about 23% on applications completed.
In FY2012, the numbers are on course for around 10.6k I-360 approvals, with an average denial rate of about 27%.
The average ratio including Dependents is 1.75 for visas issued.
That would give potential I-485 numbers of 21.3k in FY2011 and 18.6k in FY2012.
Both are way above the c. 10k number available to EB4 in a FY when no extra FB visas from the previous year are available.
In addition the number of pending I-360 cases yet to be completed is huge and continues to rise.
At the beginning of FY2011 the number was 8.3k. By the end of FY2012, that number had risen to 17.7k I-360 applications pending or awaiting Customer action (mainly at Vermont).
It's hard to see how EB4 can contribute any spillover in future and makes it all the stranger that it did so in FY2011.
Any insight on this subject would be welcome.
Edit:-
One reason for the sudden drop in FY2011 may be the following:
This may have caused a temporary dip in I-485 cases to adjudicate in FY2011.Quote:
However, on October 13, 2010, the Ninth District Court of Appeals overturned the district court’s ruling in Ruiz-Diaz. USCIS therefore issued a memorandum to all of its adjudicators that effective November 8, 2010, USCIS will no longer accept concurrently filed I-360/I-485 forms for special immigrant religious worker cases. Any concurrently filed special immigrant religious worker petition filed prior to November 8 will be processed. After this date, any I-485 filed together with an I-360 for a religious worker will be rejected. Special immigrant religious workers must once again wait for the I-360 form to be approved before they can file the I-485 (and the I-1765 and I-131 forms).
The processing time for an I-360 at VSC is currently shown as 5 months
I-360s include battered spouses/children and widowers. These do not use the EB4 quota. Couldn;t that explain most of the discrepancy? The dashboard does not separate I-360s into categories.
justvisiting,Quote:
Originally Posted by justvisiting
Thanks for that piece of information. You're right. That makes a lot of sense.
The dashboard does not separate out the sub categories, but the All Form Types Performance Data does into:
I-360 Amerasians
I-360 Widow(er) Petition
I-360 Abusee/Self Petition
I-360 Special Immigrant
I-360 Special Immigrant Juvenile
The SI Juvenile category does appear to count towards the quota and is shown as SL1 / SL6 category in the reports.
That brings the numbers down to slightly above full usage of the allocation available. With some I-485 denials, it would be about right.
The lack of EB4 approvals in FY2011 was exacerbated by the fact that the ratio for Religious I-360 is 2.0 when including Dependents
I still think the number of pending cases is worrisome, although there is no way to know which sub-category they belong to.
Thanks, that really helped.