All Aug 2013 485 APPROVALS & DISCUSSION - report here with details

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Originally Posted by MATT2012

There are 152 approved primary cases, it went up to 155 now. Specs number was few hours ago, as new cases got approved obviously his number would have increased also. Regarding 6% conversion, every year it changes, but I think that is best we could do other than using a range based on historic representation.

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Matt,

I have 154 because sd37 is CC to UAE.

I am bang on your 2,500 mark.

Currently I have 51 TSC, 102 NSC and 1 CSC so we are counting the same.

I also agree with your estimate of c. 13k in your previous post. Originally, I might have said 12k, but early indications are that it is a bit higher than that as "upgrades are looking higher than I had allowed for.

With c. 3k already approved prior to August, that would bring total possible demand to reach 01JAN08 to c. 16k.

Current approval rate in August is about 9.2k/month (although that will increase as people update the tracker), compared to the 13k that have possibly become Current and are approvable.

Your previous post was a bit deja vu, because it said pretty much what I was thinking.

Friends
Is it only me that is not able to access trackiitt.com. I am only able to view cached pages from Google server.

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Originally Posted by venki080

Friends
Is it only me that is not able to access trackiitt.com. I am only able to view cached pages from Google server.

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No problem for me.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Matt,

I have 154 because sd37 is CC to UAE.

I am bang on your 2,500 mark.

Currently I have 51 TSC, 102 NSC and 1 CSC so we are counting the same.

I also agree with your estimate of c. 13k in your previous post. Originally, I might have said 12k, but early indications are that it is a bit higher than that as "upgrades are looking higher than I had allowed for.

With c. 3k already approved prior to August, that would bring total possible demand to reach 01JAN08 to c. 16k.

Current approval rate in August is about 9.2k/month (although that will increase as people update the tracker), compared to the 13k that have possibly become Current and are approvable.

Your previous post was a bit deja vu, because it said pretty much what I was thinking.

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your post gave me a lot of confidence that most of us ( matt, me and others) will be greened by the end of the month.

I am also going to pursue through my congressman's office as I know him personally and they hopefully can at least increase the chances slightly.

Spec,

As an after thought about split between interfiles and direct, I think my initial ratio was not correct. Currently we are dividing trackitt approvals pre 2007 : 2007 as a ratio between interfiles: direct. There were around 2500 cases before 2007 in July demand, we have to add 4500 cases to the same, so total pre-2007 approvals should be around 7000, also if we add 500 cases to 2007 demand so 5500+500= 6000, so the overall ratio between interfiles: direct should 7:6 or approx. 1.2:1. Interfile number on the higher side, Am I correct?

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Matt,

With c. 3k already approved prior to August, that would bring total possible demand to reach 01JAN08 to c. 16k.

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Spec- Could you please shed more light on the statement highlighted above?

Thanks
Nat

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Originally Posted by natvyas

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Matt,

With c. 3k already approved prior to August, that would bring total possible demand to reach 01JAN08 to c. 16k.

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Spec- Could you please shed more light on the statement highlighted above?

Thanks
Nat

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Nat,

I could have possibly phrased that better.

Assuming CO allocated the minimum numbers to EB2-I in Oct-July (a fair assumption), EB2-I would have used 2.8k.

The last published Demand Data shows 8k demand to reach a Cut Off Date of 01JAN08.

In addition, there may be up to 5k "upgrades" not reflected in the Demand Data that might be approved.

If all cases were approved, the total number of visas required would be 2.8 + 8.0 + 5.0 = 15.8k for the current Cut Off Date of 01JAB08.

Clearly not all cases will be approved, but the number gives a guide to play with to deduct cases that might be left behind and to add further numbers to future Cut Off Dates.

For instance, it requires a further 3.5k to reach a COD of 01APR08. If 2k were left behind, actual approvals for EB2-I would need to be 15.8 - 2.0 + 3.5 = 17.3k to reach a COD of 01APR08.

I hope that explains better.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Nat,

I could have possibly phrased that better.

Assuming CO allocated the minimum numbers to EB2-I in Oct-July (a fair assumption), EB2-I would have used 2.8k.

The last published Demand Data shows 8k demand to reach a Cut Off Date of 01JAN08.

In addition, there may be up to 5k "upgrades" not reflected in the Demand Data that might be approved.

If all cases were approved, the total number of visas required would be 2.8 + 8.0 + 5.0 = 15.8k for the current Cut Off Date of 01JAB08.

Clearly not all cases will be approved, but the number gives a guide to play with to deduct cases that might be left behind and to add further numbers to future Cut Off Dates.

For instance, it requires a further 3.5k to reach a COD of 01APR08. If 2k were left behind, actual approvals for EB2-I would need to be 15.8 - 2.0 + 3.5 = 17.3k to reach a COD of 01APR08.

I hope that explains better.

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Assuming currently about 6K are approved out of 16k (total Demand till jan 1st 2008), if additional few thousands are added, do you think CIS will have the capability to process 10K + (additional cases added with sept COD movement) ?

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Originally Posted by indiani

Assuming currently about 6K are approved out of 16k (total Demand till jan 1st 2008), if additional few thousands are added, do you think CIS will have the capability to process 10K + (additional cases added with sept COD movement) ?

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I dont see why not. When they can do 2.5K in 1 week then why not 10K in 7 weeks.

Regards
Nat

Finally received the "Card Production" email for me and my spouse. Really dont know how to explain my state of mind now ...
Waited for this moment insanely ...

All the best for all the people who are waiting ...

PD - NOV152007
EB2I - Direct (NSC)

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Originally Posted by snrusa

Finally received the "Card Production" email for me and my spouse. Really dont know how to explain my state of mind now ...
Waited for this moment insanely ...

All the best for all the people who are waiting ...

PD - NOV152007
EB2I - Direct (NSC)

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Congrats snrusa!!!

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Originally Posted by snrusa

Finally received the "Card Production" email for me and my spouse. Really dont know how to explain my state of mind now ...
Waited for this moment insanely ...

All the best for all the people who are waiting ...

PD - NOV152007
EB2I - Direct (NSC)

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snrusa,

Congratulations!!

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Originally Posted by longwait100

I got the magic text and email of my 485 approval about 30 min ago (PD Aug 2007, TSC). Haven't received it for my wife yet and her status still shows up as RFE review.

Has anyone been in such situation?....if so, pls let me know the future course of action.

Thanks a bunch to all the forum members for their valuable inputs during anxious moments of the GC journey. Hands down this is the best immigration forum that I've ever come across. Keep it up Q and other Gurus!

For those who are waiting for their approvals, hang on guys, its right around the corner, cheers!

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Congratulations!!! Now that the long wait is over - planning to change you user ID :-)?

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Originally Posted by indiani

Assuming currently about 6K are approved out of 16k (total Demand till jan 1st 2008), if additional few thousands are added, do you think CIS will have the capability to process 10K + (additional cases added with sept COD movement) ?

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I think that is within USCIS capability.

You do raise an interesting point.

The ability to process enough cases in September mitigates against large movements in the September VB.

Looking back at historical movements for EB2-I, with the exception of FY2009, movement in September has been fairly modest.

Even with FY2009, in September, it moved to a date which had been Current for many months previously, so the numbers that became Current may have been reasonably low, even though the COD movement was large.

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Originally Posted by snrusa

Finally received the "Card Production" email for me and my spouse. Really dont know how to explain my state of mind now ...
Waited for this moment insanely ...

All the best for all the people who are waiting ...

PD - NOV152007
EB2I - Direct (NSC)

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Congratulations!!! I had the same feelings back then... All I say is - Just enjoy the moment!!!

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Originally Posted by snrusa

Finally received the "Card Production" email for me and my spouse. Really dont know how to explain my state of mind now ...
Waited for this moment insanely ...

All the best for all the people who are waiting ...

PD - NOV152007
EB2I - Direct (NSC)

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Congrats !

did u get mass RFE ?
any congressional inquiry you placed?

which month was you RD?

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Originally Posted by indiani

Congrats !

did u get mass RFE ?
any congressional inquiry you placed?

which month was you RD?

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I did not get any RFE anytime. my RD was Dec-05-2011. As a matter of fact, yesterday i called my congresswomen office and talked to the person who helps the immigration issues. She sent some privacy forms to fill, thought of sending those forms today but luckily i got the approval this morning.

Congrats longwait and nrusa!

Congratulations

TSC waking up... sevral approvals today, some of those were subject to the massive RFE.

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Originally Posted by justvisiting

TSC waking up... sevral approvals today, some of those were subject to the massive RFE.

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17 approvals (including 2 dependents) updated so far, by the end of the day we might see 25+ hopefully, moreover TSC is doing as well as NSC.
Tomorrow TSC alone might send approvals again.
DD might come out around 4pm

My case status has changed to "Card/ Document Production", so looks like I am approved. Feeling numb..I guess my system will take some time to realize. :)
To summarize, mine was a straight forward EB2 case (NSC) with Dec 2007 PD. I did not went for SR or infopass, neither I called Senator/Congressman.
Hang in there guys, by God's grace your time will also come.

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Originally Posted by SmileBaba

My case status has changed to "Card/ Document Production", so looks like I am approved. Feeling numb..I guess my system will take some time to realize. :)
To summarize, mine was a straight forward EB2 case (NSC) with Dec 2007 PD. I did not went for SR or infopass, neither I called Senator/Congressman.
Hang in there guys, by God's grace your time will also come.

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Congrats !

Enjoy the moment !!

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Originally Posted by SmileBaba

My case status has changed to "Card/ Document Production", so looks like I am approved. Feeling numb..I guess my system will take some time to realize. :)
To summarize, mine was a straight forward EB2 case (NSC) with Dec 2007 PD. I did not went for SR or infopass, neither I called Senator/Congressman.
Hang in there guys, by God's grace your time will also come.

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Congratulations SmileBaba!!!

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Originally Posted by ragx08

Congratulations SmileBaba!!!

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Congratts Smilebaba....

Smilebaba will be smiling a lot today :)

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Originally Posted by SmileBaba

My case status has changed to "Card/ Document Production", so looks like I am approved. Feeling numb..I guess my system will take some time to realize. :)
To summarize, mine was a straight forward EB2 case (NSC) with Dec 2007 PD. I did not went for SR or infopass, neither I called Senator/Congressman.
Hang in there guys, by God's grace your time will also come.

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congrats baba!!!

No VB today. If the VB dates already decided what is stopping them to release it today. Is CO reviewing the data now or what?... not sure what's going on. Weekend is ruined for sure.

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Originally Posted by SmileBaba

My case status has changed to "Card/ Document Production", so looks like I am approved. Feeling numb..I guess my system will take some time to realize. :)
To summarize, mine was a straight forward EB2 case (NSC) with Dec 2007 PD. I did not went for SR or infopass, neither I called Senator/Congressman.
Hang in there guys, by God's grace your time will also come.

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SmileBaba,

A bit late to the party, but congratulations from me as well!!

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Originally Posted by pdmay2008

No VB today. If the VB dates already decided what is stopping them to release it today. Is CO reviewing the data now or what?... not sure what's going on. Weekend is ruined for sure.

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pdmay2008,

I agree it is a shame it was not published to day so people could enjoy their weekend one way or the other.

EB isn't the only area CO has to consider.

It's possible that he has some decisions to make on FB as well. F2A was made Current this month. If that hasn't generated sufficient demand, he is going to have to adjust other FB Categories.

That might be the case in EB too, if EB3-WW demand does not appear quickly enough.

Finally, with such a late move for EB2-I, he may wish to give himself as long as possible to see early demand before setting the final Cut Off Date.

Thanks Everyone for your kind wishes! I would like to give special thanks to Q, Spec, Teddy, Kanmani, Vizcard and each and every participant of this forum!

smilebaba is smiling today. Happy Friday!!

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Originally Posted by SmileBaba

My case status has changed to "Card/ Document Production", so looks like I am approved. Feeling numb..I guess my system will take some time to realize. :)
To summarize, mine was a straight forward EB2 case (NSC) with Dec 2007 PD. I did not went for SR or infopass, neither I called Senator/Congressman.
Hang in there guys, by God's grace your time will also come.

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20 primary+2 dependent trackitt approvals today ( TSC performing well )

As there could be some more entries later today . I think today is an average approval day with some asuurance that TSC is trying to catch up.

yesterday 154 (primary)+ 20 = 174 ( this could actually be higher as everyone did not update tracker yet)

considering 6% are primary applicants (using Matt's figure) : Total 2900

working days so far 7 ( TSC closed for Monday for working on Saturday)

approvals per day : 414

15 more working days this month and potential approvals: Total 6214

This month 2900+6214= 9114 ( almost same as spec calculated 1-2 days ago)


Assuming 13K total demand ( including porters) 4K will have to wait till September.

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Originally Posted by pdmay2008

No VB today. If the VB dates already decided what is stopping them to release it today. Is CO reviewing the data now or what?... not sure what's going on. Weekend is ruined for sure.

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CO is intentionally delaying VB release as he wants to monitor new porting applications(new interfiling applications not in DD). He did that once in past(June2011 VB released on May11 2011).

Jun2011VB: http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_5452.html
Notes From Jun11 VB:
"Since October there has been heavy demand by applicants "upgrading" their status from Employment Third to Employment Second preference. The rapid forward movement of the India Employment Second preference cut-off date in May had the potential to greatly increase such demand. --Therefore, the determination of the June cut-off dates was delayed in order to monitor this demand--".

The above is from a user on trackitt... It might answer ur question....

In the above I have not included Saturdays as TSC didn't approve a on Monday when they did on Saturday

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Originally Posted by Jagan01

CO is intentionally delaying VB release as he wants to monitor new porting applications(new interfiling applications not in DD). He did that once in past(June2011 VB released on May11 2011).

Jun2011VB: http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulle...
Notes From Jun11 VB:
"Since October there has been heavy demand by applicants "upgrading" their status from Employment Third to Employment Second preference. The rapid forward movement of the India Employment Second preference cut-off date in May had the potential to greatly increase such demand. --Therefore, the determination of the June cut-off dates was delayed in order to monitor this demand--".

The above is from a user on trackitt... It might answer ur question....

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VB used to be released few years ago on the 14th, later 13th and only recently 9th or even 8th. so I think waiting till Monday is not only a smart move but helps earlier PD's not left behind again by making decisions with more accurate data.

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Originally Posted by Jagan01

CO is intentionally delaying VB release as he wants to monitor new porting applications(new interfiling applications not in DD). He did that once in past(June2011 VB released on May11 2011).

Jun2011VB: http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulle...
Notes From Jun11 VB:
"Since October there has been heavy demand by applicants "upgrading" their status from Employment Third to Employment Second preference. The rapid forward movement of the India Employment Second preference cut-off date in May had the potential to greatly increase such demand. --Therefore, the determination of the June cut-off dates was delayed in order to monitor this demand--".

The above is from a user on trackitt... It might answer ur question....

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Forgot to add that this would mean that CO is monitoring the porting demand since he has done it in the past and released the bulletin late.

Unfortunately that translates to good news for few (the one who are already preadj and current this month) and bad news for most (the ones with PD after Jan 2008). If he sees considerably higher number of EB3-EB2 interfile applications then he might not advance the date much.

All I am hoping for is that al the visas get USED. I hope is not looking at the first week applications and projecting that if 2000 applied in week 1 then 8000 will apply in the month of Aug. Because technically everyone who is current has applied by now and it all depends on how the CO sees it.

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Originally Posted by indiani

VB used to be released few years ago on the 14th, later 13th and only recently 9th or even 8th. so I think waiting till Monday is not only a smart move but helps earlier PD's not left behind again by making decisions with more accurate data.

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Indiani,

As I mentioned it is bad news for most people. It might be good for people who are current today and I totally am with you on the part that earlier PDs should get GC first.

All that I am against is the wastage of visas. There should not be any wastage while trying to be more accurate and I have explained in my previous post that most people would have applied in the first week making the CO think that there is huge demand.

Anyways, Monday is not that far :)

Have a nice weekend everyone...

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Originally Posted by Jagan01

Indiani,

As I mentioned it is bad news for most people. It might be good for people who are current today and I totally am with you on the part that earlier PDs should get GC first.

All that I am against is the wastage of visas. There should not be any wastage while trying to be more accurate and I have explained in my previous post that most people would have applied in the first week making the CO think that there is huge demand.

Anyways, Monday is not that far :)

Have a nice weekend everyone...

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I am not quite sure how much more data points he gets between Friday morning and Monday morning for interfiling requests for porting.

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Originally Posted by pdmay2008

I am not quite sure how much more data points he gets between Friday morning and Monday morning for interfiling requests for porting.

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It might be about other categories as Spec mentioned and not about EB2 (I). Anyways my perception is that dates were artificially held at Sep 2004 for India for 10 months for some reason.
I cannot believe that there were exactly 280 cases per month with demand prior to Sep 2004. Either there should have been more cases or less cases depending on the demand which should have either moved dates ahead or retrogressed further.

I believe the movement to Jan 2008 was one of the occurrences where CO used Math to come up with cut off dates (since it matches roughly with the predictions posted on the forum)
His instinct based decisions (due to lack of data) have been well documented in the past. there can be more of them in Sep bulletin - not in EB2 I category but in others (F2A for example)

updateing previous post:
24 primary+2 dependent trackitt approvals today ( TSC performing well )

As there could be some more entries later today . I think today is an average approval day with some asuurance that TSC is trying to catch up.

yesterday 154 (primary)+ 24 = 178 ( this could actually be higher as everyone did not update tracker yet)

considering 6% are primary applicants (using Matt's figure) : Total 2966

working days so far 7 ( TSC closed for Monday for working on Saturday)

approvals per day : 423

15 more working days this month and potential approvals: Total 6357