All Aug 2013 485 APPROVALS & DISCUSSION - report here with details

We already know from CO's previous comments that he believes "upgrades" in a given year are very high. Last year, he mentioned a figure of 10-15k a year for all Countries, while admitting that neither DOS nor USCIS kept any figures.

This year is not a normal year and numbers are likely to be higher than usual due to retrogression last year in EB2.

My worry would be that seeing a high number of approvals with early PDs in early August will merely reinforce CO's opinion about the high number of "upgrades" and that would make him more conservative in the COD movement.

As for TSC, I have not seen any evidence why they would have less "upgrades" as a % of total approvals and I can't think of a good reason why that should be the case either. CO knows they will come on-stream at some point and must bear that in mind.

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Originally Posted by MATT2012

Nebraska's ratio of interfile cases is high, I could not find any other logical reason other than to help CO with the next month date movement. Within Nebraska center I expected to have an higher ratio when compared to the Texas ratio because Nebraska approved more cases last fiscal, but not as high as we are seeing in trackitt. The other scenario is, we were wrong with interfile estimates, that will seriously affect next months movement. But as Spec pointed out in one of his posts, it is too early for the overall pattern to form, especially with the approval slowdown in TSC.

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Matt, let's take it a little slowly please.

Are you saying that the NSC is trying to help CO justify a greater movement next month than otherwise justifiable, or a lesser movement? And how do we get there by a disproportionately higher approval proportion for interfiles?

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Originally Posted by Pedro Gonzales

Matt, let's take it a little slowly please.

Are you saying that the NSC is trying to help CO justify a greater movement next month than otherwise justifiable, or a lesser movement? And how do we get there by a disproportionately higher approval proportion for interfiles?

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Pedro,

Sorry that I did not communicate properly. hope the below explanation helps..

From CO's point of view Interfile cases is the dark box. Though I believe that there is lack of communication between the two agencies, I think that they do have frequent meetings to understand trends. There used to be a weekly meeting before between the agencies, I am not sure whether it is followed even now, or what is discussed. it is still little unclear to me why USCIS cannot provide a count of interfile cases, it may not be exact but an approximate.

CO has mentioned several times that he don't have any visibility to interfile cases, the least USCIS can do now is to process maximum number of interfile cases before DD is compiled and give an approximate range of pending interfile cases. if they have at least minimum understanding between them, they would be able to make Sept movement more accurate. I am not sure whether that will impact favorably or adversely, but being accurate is better, with a minimum margin of error as nothing is stopping USCIS from actively processing interfile cases.

Speaking about strategies, I do think that both USCIS and DoS have some common strategies and at times totally different political strategies too. I could notice some strategies applied in EB2ROW approval pattern this fiscal.

Cheers!!

Matt

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Originally Posted by Spectator

As for TSC, I have not seen any evidence why they would have less "upgrades" as a % of total approvals and I can't think of a good reason why that should be the case either. CO knows they will come on-stream at some point and must bear that in mind.

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Spec,

I do think that TSC ratio of approvals to application was low last year, when compared to NSC ratio. As there is a higher weightage of last year applications in TSC, the interfile: direct ratio this year could be different in Texas. That is what I remember from last year.

Cheers!!

Matt

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

We already know from CO's previous comments that he believes "upgrades" in a given year are very high. Last year, he mentioned a figure of 10-15k a year for all Countries, while admitting that neither DOS nor USCIS kept any figures.

This year is not a normal year and numbers are likely to be higher than usual due to retrogression last year in EB2.

My worry would be that seeing a high number of approvals with early PDs in early August will merely reinforce CO's opinion about the high number of "upgrades" and that would make him more conservative in the COD movement.

As for TSC, I have not seen any evidence why they would have less "upgrades" as a % of total approvals and I can't think of a good reason why that should be the case either. CO knows they will come on-stream at some point and must bear that in mind.

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Hi Spec,

I thought that the interfile cases always figured in the demand. Let us consider an application by someone in EB3 with PD Apr 2006. If that was interfiled with EB2 as the new category won't it be in the demand data?

If it was in demand data than CO already knew about these cases.

I believe the attempt is to go sequentially based on PDs and that would give him the best estimates as well as a chance to clear the older PDs. This also indirectly means that dates will not retrogress into 2005/2006 and will stay in 2007/2008.

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Originally Posted by Jagan01

Hi Spec,

I thought that the interfile cases always figured in the demand. Let us consider an application by someone in EB3 with PD Apr 2006. If that was interfiled with EB2 as the new category won't it be in the demand data?

If it was in demand data than CO already knew about these cases.

I believe the attempt is to go sequentially based on PDs and that would give him the best estimates as well as a chance to clear the older PDs. This also indirectly means that dates will not retrogress into 2005/2006 and will stay in 2007/2008.

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Jagan,

The final part of what people call Interfiling is the conversion of the basis of the I-485 from the approved EB3 I-140 to the newly approved EB2 I-140.

That Conversion cannot take place until the PD for the new basis (EB2) is Current (source:- USCIS AFM).

For any cases with a PD of September 01, 2004 or later where the process completed after May 2012, the PD was never Current again until August 01, 2013.

Without the Conversion step, a visa could never have been requested under EB2 and the case would still show under EB3 in the Demand Data. When the case is approved, eventually the EB3 case will disappear from the EB3 Demand, although how long that takes is uncertain.

NO it is straight forward EB2, Thanks for all your wishes, Big relief

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Originally Posted by Jagan01

Hi Spec,

I thought that the interfile cases always figured in the demand. Let us consider an application by someone in EB3 with PD Apr 2006. If that was interfiled with EB2 as the new category won't it be in the demand data?

If it was in demand data than CO already knew about these cases.

I believe the attempt is to go sequentially based on PDs and that would give him the best estimates as well as a chance to clear the older PDs. This also indirectly means that dates will not retrogress into 2005/2006 and will stay in 2007/2008.

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The inter files are technically in the demand data but in the wrong category. As Spec points out, the actual inter filing cannot happen until dates are current. However, those cases are already a part of EB3 demand.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Jagan,

The final part of what people call Interfiling is the conversion of the basis of the I-485 from the approved EB3 I-140 to the newly approved EB2 I-140.

That Conversion cannot take place until the PD for the new basis (EB2) is Current (source:- USCIS AFM).

For any cases with a PD of September 01, 2004 or later where the process completed after May 2012, the PD was never Current again until August 01, 2013.

Without the Conversion step, a visa could never have been requested under EB2 and the case would still show under EB3 in the Demand Data. When the case is approved, eventually the EB3 case will disappear from the EB3 Demand, although how long that takes is uncertain.

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Hi Spec,
Thanks for the detailed explanation. With your detailed explanation, the theory that giving GC to interfile cases is done in order to prevent the dates from retrogressing into 2006 is further strengthened.

Lets consider that GC were given on the basis of Receipt Date and not PD. If we had 5000 interfile applications with earlier PD and 5000 direct applications then it might be possible that 1000 interfilers get approved and 4000 direct applications. In that case there might be a scenario that many interfile applications with PD 2006 might be left out and it may well be around 2000. Then when the first demand data is released in the new year, we would see 2000 pending for the year 2006. CO can only allocate approx 300 a month which means he will have to move the date back to somewhere in 2006.

Lets consider the other scenario that GC are allotted based on PD. This would mean that entire 2005 and 2006 gets drained. Though the demand data would have more outstanding in 2007 and 2008, it still gives the CO the chance to keep EB2 India dates to 2007/2008.

Overall, I agree with your conclusion that it is detrimental for Sept visa bulletin. However, in the longer term it is advantageous as dates would not retrogress as much giving more chances for people to file 485 and get EAD.

On trackitt there is discussion saying visas might be getting exhausted? Is that a possibility so early in August?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Teja9999

NO it is straight forward EB2, Thanks for all your wishes, Big relief

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Congratulations Teja! Did you contacted Congressman/senator or opened SR this month?
Also if I may ask, your petitioning employer was a desi consulting company or else?

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Originally Posted by SmileBaba

Congratulations Teja! Did you contacted Congressman/senator or opened SR this month?
Also if I may ask, your petitioning employer was a desi consulting company or else?

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I'm sure people have noticed it but the number of people who have updated their status on trackitt has taken the number from 87 at the start of the day to 111 when I last saw. (19 of those approvals came in today).

I think the approvals are not slow its just the issue with updating. In addition to that the percentage of 2005 and 2004 cases of the total approvals have dropped significantly.

That's very very unlikely so early in the month.

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Originally Posted by sandyn16

On trackitt there is discussion saying visas might be getting exhausted? Is that a possibility so early in August?

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With almost everyone with a pending 485 application now opting for a Senator/congressman inquiry, i wonder how effective these inquiries will be, as the already burdened USCIS will now have to deal with the added task of responding to these inquiries.

I hope they don't resort to a random response process for these hundreds of thousands of inquiries too!

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Originally Posted by longwait100

With almost everyone with a pending 485 application now opting for a Senator/congressman inquiry, i wonder how effective these inquiries will be, as the already burdened USCIS will now have to deal with the added task of responding to these inquiries.

I hope they don't resort to a random response process for these hundreds of thousands of inquiries too!

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I think everyone has standard response of " will review in next 30-45 days"

I have received privacy notice from congressman's office but will return leisurely.

I suspect RD is playing a role, mine is in april 2012 and very few have applied that late, so I might be one of the last to be approved.

Indiani, you are probably right, a couple of my friends who initiated an inquiry have already received the "30-60 days" boilerplate response. I wouldn't be surprised if this boilerplate response soon becomes a norm as the inquiry volume increases.

From what I have heard, these type of inquiries are certainly effective during an off season when the USCIS is not overly loaded with applications.

as everyone is not updating on trackitt right away its difficult to keep a close tally of total approvals but overall the pace of approvals at TSC+ NSC appears to be constant, conversion factor is also a wild guess.

It seems almost impossible for everyone who are current to get approval in august itself.

In sept bulletin I hope they would decide to keep it current for atleast oct ( but appears most likely they would have to retrogress)

Indiani, on similar lines, does anyone know if the visa numbers will stay locked-in for all the cases that got RFE @TSC. If the visa numbers are already locked/assigned for these cases then it should be just a matter of time until these cases are picked and adjudicated which is good news for the folks who are current. That way we can still expect us getting GCs even when the dates retrogress.

Indiani, on similar lines, does anyone know if the visa numbers will stay locked-in for all the cases that got RFE @TSC.

NO

If the visa numbers are already locked/assigned for these cases then it should be just a matter of time until these cases are picked and adjudicated which is good news for the folks who are current.

Nothing is locked


That way we can still expect us getting GCs even when the dates retrogress

If they dates aren't current they cannot request a visa. So no GC. ( in extremely few cases people have got GC without PD being current but it was an error)

There was discussion earlier on trackitt about visas getting exhausted? Does that seem like a valid possiblity so early in August?

Indiani, if what you are saying is true then how will USCIS (@TSC) manage the visa number allocation for the non-RFE cases that will be current in the Sep bulletin.

Since they are pre-adjudicated (as the June DD suggests), they would end up consuming all the visa numbers and the RFE cases with earlier PDs won't get enough attention (lowest hanging fruit concept).

There was discussion earlier on trackitt about visas getting exhausted?

That's why stay on Q forum ( use trackitt for data) ...JK

Does that seem like a valid possiblity so early in August?

NO

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Originally Posted by longwait100

Indiani, if what you are saying is true then how will USCIS manage the visa number allocation for the non-RFE cases that will be current in the Sep bulletin.

Since they are pre-adjudicated (as the June DD suggests), they would end up consuming all the visa numbers with the RFE cases with earlier PDs not getting enough attention (lowest hanging fruit concept).

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sorry, I didn't understand your question well. you are making lot of assumptions in your question which I don't understand ( may be someone else can better answer yours)

Thanks for being honest, BTW my only assumption was if your post #162 is true.

Anyways, I'll wait to see if someone else can respond, thanks!

For EB2I cases that were already in Demand with a PD before Jan 01,2008 visas get blocked as part of the DD/VB process. For the Mid June RFE cases(except interfile cases), the only question is did they stay in the EB2I demand or not. We had a discussion in the calculation page, and many thought that those cases will not be taken out, as process of taking out from demand requires reason code etc. As DD was not published last time, that question may remain un-answered.