EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

Indiani, that post was a common post to all, just to make sure the message is noted.

You may remember one of my earlier post, I tried to explain the entire process in a diluted version. I don't know if it was a success or failure attempt.

Again coming to the subject, CO is just like any one of us in this matter. His guess could be the same as our guess. He has seen the entire 2013 was held by up-graders so far, that is why he expects more hidden demand.

DoS and DHS are two different ministries( just like India) not co-operating each other.

The main reason for this is, the applications are dealt by thousands of Adjudicators, not grouped under one chief of the ministry to report to the other ministry's chief.

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Kanmani - well said.

I always enjoy your posts. They are informative , well researched and most importantly have positive tone ( such a rare thing these days :) ).

Q, Thank you for your words. I compared CO with us only in the context of hidden demand. Otherwise I could only watch him playing golf with Sportfan's attorney (through fence):)

My only concern about the forum features is 'SEARCH', which is currently not up to the mark.

Sun,

That positive tone is unavoidable while being in the queue. Otherwise, I am a worst critic.

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Originally Posted by suninphx

Kanmani - well said.

I always enjoy your posts. They are informative , well researched and most importantly have positive tone ( such a rare thing these days :) ).

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I would second what sun had said ...the posts posted by all gurus are most informative and also the tone is so positive. All the folks in this forum are so decent and respect each other's views if they don't agree which is very rare to see now a days.

Glad to be part of such wonderful forum and thanks for Q to have started and maintaining it and also Thanks to other gurus for keeping all of us informed and clarifying all our q's and concerns..

Spec,
Could it be that CO did not allocate 7% to EB2 I so as to payback EB2 ROW for the extra visas that he borrowed last year (for EB2 I) and made it unavailable ?
Maybe CO's strategy was to limit EB2I to 1000 visas or less initially and allocate rest to EB2 ROW (which was potentially backlogged). End of year he can allocate spillover
to EB2 I.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

indiani,

There's no doubt this is a subject of much frustration.

Here's my thoughts on what we might deduce and CO might know to base an estimate on. CO might also have extra information unknown to us.

Since the EB2-I COD has not moved, we can probably deduce that in the 10 months to August 1, EB2-I should have used about ((9 * 9%) + (1/3 * 19%)) * 3,163 = 2,762 visas, if EB2-I has just received the minimum allowed by 7% of the 45,188 EB2 allocation. I see no reason why EB2-I would have received less than that amount.

It's therefore fair to assume that the 01SEP04 COD was capable of consuming 3k for the full year.

Porting numbers for that COD represent no more than 2 years (EB3-I ended FY2012 at 08OCT02).

Roughly that is a rate of 1.5k / FY / PD CY.

September 2004 through July 2007 represents the time period when someone upgrading from EB3 to EB2 might already have an I-485 on file and pre-adjudicated. That is roughly a 3 year period. Cases any later than that will have to file an I-485 for the first time, with little to no chance of being approved this FY.

That gives a realistic upper limit of a further 1.5 * 3 = 4.5k porting cases that might become current from August 1 - September 30, 2013. No doubt some of those are older than the beginning of retrogression and are counted in the DD already. I wouldn't like to put a figure on that number. That of course assumes the rate of upgrades beyond August 2004 is similar. That may, of course, not be a fair assumption. It's not difficult to think of reasons why it could be either higher or lower in later years.

Do we know any more than that?

Either way, I think we are talking about a few thousand cases that are not currently in the DD that could be approved this FY.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by seattlet

Spec,
Could it be that CO did not allocate 7% to EB2 I so as to payback EB2 ROW for the extra visas that he borrowed last year (for EB2 I) and made it unavailable ?
Maybe CO's strategy was to limit EB2I to 1000 visas or less initially and allocate rest to EB2 ROW (which was potentially backlogged). End of year he can allocate spillover
to EB2 I.

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It's possible but unlikely. There is no indication that EB2ROW need more than its regular allocation + FB overflow to stay current. Also, that strategy would be willfully breaking the law.

I think the GC approvals on trackitt for eb2i so far have been original EB2 cases with RD of dec 2011 ( PD late 2007),
too early to say but we might see a trend based on RD

Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

rferni - looks like nobody answered this. The answer is yes - that is the most plausible and probably explanation.

However sometimes I have also seen very weird demand data quirks. But I would tend to think these are pretty much portings.

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qesehmk: many thanks for your response. I read a lot of subsequent threads where the consensus was pretty much that the DOS has no visibility into porting demand until a request for a visa number is made - which cannot happen until the date is current.

If as you mention, this data seems to suggest that a maximum of 2550 porting upgrades with priority dates prior to 01/01/2008 are already included in July 2013 demand data, is it possible that the USCIS has now developed the capability of recognizing potential EB3 I-485 filings that can be linked to subsequent EB2 I-140s - and making an EB2 visa request in advance of the EB2 priority date becoming current?

I understand this is all speculation, but it is confusing nevertheless...

It depends on what people mean by visibility.

But the fact that DOS retrogresses EB2I into 2004 in early part of FY (i.e. Q1) means they knew that there were at least 3K portings that were going to increase then known EB2I cases in 485 inventory.

So in short the answer is - DoS has to have some visibility in order to retrogress dates. When they see it they update demand data and we see the anamoly of EB2I receiving cases from era where dates are not current. Make sense?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by rferni

qesehmk: many thanks for your response. I read a lot of subsequent threads where the consensus was pretty much that the DOS has no visibility into porting demand until a request for a visa number is made - which cannot happen until the date is current.

If as you mention, this data seems to suggest that a maximum of 2550 porting upgrades with priority dates prior to 01/01/2008 are already included in July 2013 demand data, is it possible that the USCIS has now developed the capability of recognizing potential EB3 I-485 filings that can be linked to subsequent EB2 I-140s - and making an EB2 visa request in advance of the EB2 priority date becoming current?

I understand this is all speculation, but it is confusing nevertheless...

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the suspense has started to build in my head....I continue to wait for my turn with mixed feelings (excited for being so close {again} yet nervous about the unexpected)!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by indiani

I think the GC approvals on trackitt for eb2i so far have been original EB2 cases with RD of dec 2011 ( PD late 2007),
too early to say but we might see a trend based on RD

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Make sense?

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It does ... thank you.

So basically, there is a possibility that some porting cases are baked into known demand. In short, that should in theory, reduce 'unknown' porting demand - hopefully translating into more unused visas for September 2013. Trying to put a positive spin on it for now ... but we'll wait and see in a couple weeks or so.

porting cases cant get approved unless they are baked into demand data from retrogressed categories. That includes EB2IC. For EB2ROW however I am not entirely sure.

So I will take at face value whatever Aug published demand data shows for EB2IC. And any further EB2IC porting surprises should be nil or minimal.

p.s. - Because of the extra 18K from FB - this is year is going to turn out good. Rest assured. I will be damned if it doesnt and that would only mean one and one thing - that EB3ROW portings are in full swing that they are consuming EB1/4/5 spillover. But I am optimistic that EB3ROW portings are not to that level yet.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by rferni

It does ... thank you.

So basically, there is a possibility that some porting cases are baked into known demand. In short, that should in theory, reduce 'unknown' porting demand - hopefully translating into more unused visas for September 2013. Trying to put a positive spin on it for now ... but we'll wait and see in a couple weeks or so.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by rferni

It does ... thank you.

So basically, there is a possibility that some porting cases are baked into known demand. In short, that should in theory, reduce 'unknown' porting demand - hopefully translating into more unused visas for September 2013. Trying to put a positive spin on it for now ... but we'll wait and see in a couple weeks or so.

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rferni,

Yes, but they will likely be cases that completed the interfiling process, but weren't adjudicated, before retrogression in June 2012.

That would still leave 14 months of "unknown" cases with a PD of September 01, 2004 onwards.

Thanks for the good work guys. I just did not want to be a silent reader any more :)

I almost read all the predictions here. But..one question I could not resist asking here is, what is the probablity (in terms of real known numbers) that dates might not move at all? As you see, being so close to the current COD I could not stop thinking of VB!


Again, Keep up the great work guys. This forum is informative.

Yes understood - thanks to both qesehmk and Spec. I am certainly better informed now ... :)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

That would still leave 14 months of "unknown" cases with a PD of September 01, 2004 onwards.

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Regarding this quote from Spec: I understand there's still an unknown component of porting demand for EB2I, but given some of the demand is already known and incorporated into DD, do you guys still estimate the "unknown" porting demand in August 2013 to be within the 4K - 7K range? Or is it somewhat lower?

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Originally Posted by iblveicanget

Thanks for the good work guys. I just did not want to be a silent reader any more :)

I almost read all the predictions here. But..one question I could not resist asking here is, what is the probablity (in terms of real known numbers) that dates might not move at all? As you see, being so close to the current COD I could not stop thinking of VB!


Again, Keep up the great work guys. This forum is informative.

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iblveicanget,

Welcome to the forum.

The unknowns are too large to answer that question.

I personally believe the possibility is extremely low, but not zero.

I think you will be fine.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

iblveicanget,

Welcome to the forum.

The unknowns are too large to answer that question.

I personally believe the possibility is extremely low, but not zero.

I think you will be fine.

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Thanks! Not to be selfish, but I like your last statement, that makes me happy :)

Another trackitt EB2I user from Sep 2007 got GC...
http://www.trackitt.com/member/ei1996

Looks like most pending 2004- Dec 2007 will be part of adjudication/clearing process by Aug first week and will be cleared by Aug 30. So in Sep 13 bulletin, CO should have good idea about porters specifically pre-July 2007 and can guesstimate COD quite accurately. But again not all will be approved if CO retrogresses the dates on Sep 10 (for Oct 13). I'm pretty sure maximum 80-90% will get approved by Sep 30. 10% of total cases (15000 SO) will be 1500 extra margin in calculation.

My above assumption/prediction is based on previous inventory data.

In May/June 2011 inventory around 5400 cases were pending from Oct 2006-Dec 2006

In Oct 2011 inventory there were 900+ cases pending from Oct 2006-Dec 2006.

In July 2011 EB2 Cutoff date moved from Oct 06 to March 07. When Oct 11 pending inventory was collected, Oct 06-Dec 06 was already current for around 3 months but 1/6th cases were still pending. Remember May 11 inventory may not have porters but Oct 11 inventory should have most of the porters. Also most of these already had pending I-485s. So that means if 3 months were not enough for 16-17% of applications, 2 months can not be enough this time also.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by erikbond101

Another trackitt EB2I user from Sep 2007 got GC...
http://www.trackitt.com/member/ei1996

Looks like most pending 2004- Dec 2007 will be part of adjudication/clearing process by Aug first week and will be cleared by Aug 30. So in Sep 13 bulletin, CO should have good idea about porters specifically pre-July 2007 and can guesstimate COD quite accurately. But again not all will be approved if CO retrogresses the dates on Sep 10 (for Oct 13). I'm pretty sure maximum 80-90% will get approved by Sep 30. 10% of total cases (15000 SO) will be 1500 extra margin in calculation.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by erikbond101

My above assumption/prediction is based on previous inventory data.

In May/June 2011 inventory around 5400 cases were pending from Oct 2006-Dec 2006

In Oct 2011 inventory there were 900+ cases pending from Oct 2006-Dec 2006.

In July 2011 EB2 Cutoff date moved from Oct 06 to March 07. When Oct 11 pending inventory was collected, Oct 06-Dec 06 was already current for around 3 months but 1/6th cases were still pending. Remember May 11 inventory may not have porters but Oct 11 inventory should have most of the porters. Also most of these already had pending I-485s. So that means if 3 months were not enough for 16-17% of applications, 2 months can not be enough this time also.

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Im struggling to understand the "so what" of these two posts. Help me out here.

It means final COD will be based on
I-485 pending+ porters + 15-20% extra margin

Assuming 18K SO
12K (I-485 number)+6K (porters) will take COD to some date in April 2008 and considering 3K (margin) will take COD to May 2008.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by erikbond101

My above assumption/prediction is based on previous inventory data.

In May/June 2011 inventory around 5400 cases were pending from Oct 2006-Dec 2006

In Oct 2011 inventory there were 900+ cases pending from Oct 2006-Dec 2006.

In July 2011 EB2 Cutoff date moved from Oct 06 to March 07. When Oct 11 pending inventory was collected, Oct 06-Dec 06 was already current for around 3 months but 1/6th cases were still pending. Remember May 11 inventory may not have porters but Oct 11 inventory should have most of the porters. Also most of these already had pending I-485s. So that means if 3 months were not enough for 16-17% of applications, 2 months can not be enough this time also.

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erikbond101,

I don't disagree with what you are saying. Clearly not all cases will be approved and some will be left behind. That will neccessitate some contingency above what the raw figures might say.

I think you also need to consider whether some of those cases in the October 2011 Inventory were actually new first time filings that had not yet been adjudicated.

Between the end of May 2011 and October 2011 the COD had moved from 01JUL06 to 15APR07. All October, November and December 2006 were not Current until July 2011.

There may not have been that many, but it would quickly affect the % calculation.

Just a thought.

PS:- I had a quick look at the PERM figures for Oct-Dec 2006 Received Date. About 4k were Certified after August 2007, none of which could not have been Current to submit an I-485 until June/July 2011. Not sure how many EB2 cases that would convert to back then.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by erikbond101

It means final COD will be based on
I-485 pending+ porters + 15-20% extra margin

Assuming 18K SO
12K (I-485 number)+6K (porters) will take COD to some date in April 2008 and considering 3K (margin) will take COD to May 2008.

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Agree with the concept, not the math. First, I'm assuming by 18k spillover, you mean SOFAD (ie incl original allocation+FB overflow). Otherwise that would be the first assumption that would differentiate us. I don't think we have 21k SOFAD and the rest of the post would be meaningless. :)

There's 12k demand up to jan 1,2008. You add in 6k porters, you have already maxed out your 18k spillover.Not sure how you got to April there.

Even if you assume some porting is in the demand and not all cases will be approved, to get to may 2008, a third of those 18k would need to remain unapproved (would need another 6k). That's highly unlikely IMO.

PS: my hope is that not too many ppl get left behind. It is frustrating for them and for ppl after the COD to see the future CODs move so slowly.

Vizcard if i am not wrong there is 8k demand till Jan 1 2008 and i think the other 4k(Jan-Apr) will take it till sometime in April .

Quote:

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Originally Posted by vizcard

Agree with the concept, not the math. First, I'm assuming by 18k spillover, you mean SOFAD (ie incl original allocation+FB overflow). Otherwise that would be the first assumption that would differentiate us. I don't think we have 21k SOFAD and the rest of the post would be meaningless. :)

There's 12k demand up to jan 1,2008. You add in 6k porters, you have already maxed out your 18k spillover.Not sure how you got to April there.

Even if you assume some porting is in the demand and not all cases will be approved, to get to may 2008, a third of those 18k would need to remain unapproved (would need another 6k). That's highly unlikely IMO.

PS: my hope is that not too many ppl get left behind. It is frustrating for them and for ppl after the COD to see the future CODs move so slowly.

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You are right ... I double counted.

Guys, Can somebody break that 12k demand upto jan 2008 please ? I am confused and could see only 8050 in the DD . Feels like sitting in the board exam hall, completely blank before getting the QP.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by wolverine82

Vizcard if i am not wrong there is 8k demand till Jan 1 2008 and i think the other 4k(Jan-Apr) will take it till sometime in April .

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wolverine82,

Yes, that is true and is the more likely derivation of the April date. But that would not take into account that approvals have already taken place, which should be added to the remaining demand.

By August, EB2-I will have already have 2.8k approvals and PDs before September 2004 can expect to use the entire 3.2k initial allocation by the end of the FY.

So the real number of visas required to reach a COD of 01JAN08 is nearer 8.2 + 3.2 = 11.4k (if all cases were approved).

Edit:- I think the original 6k porting figure from the OP includes the 3.2k approvals before PD Sept 2004, leaving a further 2.8k porting for Sept 2004-July 2007 PD that will be approved.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

Thanks spec. That means SOFAD = 11.4K --> 1/2008. So SOFAD of 15K --> 4/2008. Is this correct?

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sport,

Yes, that is the what I would get as well assuming all cases were approved and exclusive of any porting beyond the 3.2k number.

Gurus,

I am sending my I-485, Advance Parol and EAD application for myself, wife and daughter to Phoenix Lockbox by Fedex overnight on Jul 31st.
Do I need to make 3 separate envelopes for us, or we can put all in one big envelop?

Any last minute suggestions will be appreciated as well.

Primus - I don't have any first hand knowledge. But I guess I would rather send it separate. Sorry can't help any further. May be others can.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by primus

Gurus,

I am sending my I-485, Advance Parol and EAD application for myself, wife and daughter to Phoenix Lockbox by Fedex overnight on Jul 31st.
Do I need to make 3 separate envelopes for us, or we can put all in one big envelop?

Any last minute suggestions will be appreciated as well.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by primus

Gurus,

I am sending my I-485, Advance Parol and EAD application for myself, wife and daughter to Phoenix Lockbox by Fedex overnight on Jul 31st.
Do I need to make 3 separate envelopes for us, or we can put all in one big envelop?

Any last minute suggestions will be appreciated as well.

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I have no experience, but I came accross this
http://****************.org/forum/fo...or-filing.html

Quote:

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Originally Posted by primus

Gurus,

I am sending my I-485, Advance Parol and EAD application for myself, wife and daughter to Phoenix Lockbox by Fedex overnight on Jul 31st.
Do I need to make 3 separate envelopes for us, or we can put all in one big envelop?

Any last minute suggestions will be appreciated as well.

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3 enevelopes so that they can check everything needed for each , you can use one main fedex envelope. even if you send everything together as long as they are separately sorted out, that's fine

One of the trackitt user is reporting RFE issued on his case today. His PD May 27th 2008.

Here is the content from ggreener:

Just got a text from USCIS saying my 485 application was updated. I logged in and it says Request for Evidence was mailed to me on July 30th. My PD is May 27th 2008 - EB2I.

I've changed jobs on my EAD and moved states (From California to Texas). Updated the address change form and received correspondence from USCIS to this address. But I never filed for AC21 or GXXX (to remove lawyer from representing me?).

Would the letter come to me or the law firm that filed for my 485 (working for my previous employer).

I was looking up Trackitt and found that EB2-ROW approvals for the month are only 20. This is the lowest for this FY on trackitt.

The number has consistently been dropping since April of this year.

Other than the reason that people haven't updated their cases, what could be the reason for such drop in numbers? On the point of not updating trackitt how come suddenly people have stopped updating. I don't understand.

maybe the slow PERM processing is finally showing its results. Currently PERM is only approved until end of january PD. Normally it would have been till end of may PD by this time.
to me it translates into roughly 15 K EB2 ROW PERMS on hold compared to regular processing timeline (assuming eb2 ROW consumes 36 K visas each year)

Folks who had got their PERM approved till end of April PD, could have got 140 approved in 15 days, and filed 485 by third week of may. There is a good chance they would
have got 485 approved by mid august or end of august ( 3 months) . My opinion is that this slow PERM processing though may not help Eb2 I to move significantly, has atleast ensured EB2 ROW didnt have a cut off date and consume all spill overs.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by natvyas

I was looking up Trackitt and found that EB2-ROW approvals for the month are only 20. This is the lowest for this FY

The number has consistently been dropping since April of this year.

Other than the reason that people haven't updated their cases, what could be the reason for such drop in numbers? On the point of not updating trackitt how come suddenly people have stopped updating. I don't understand.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by natvyas

I was looking up Trackitt and found that EB2-ROW approvals for the month are only 20. This is the lowest for this FY on trackitt.

The number has consistently been dropping since April of this year.

Other than the reason that people haven't updated their cases, what could be the reason for such drop in numbers? On the point of not updating trackitt how come suddenly people have stopped updating. I don't understand.

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natvyas,

You will find the numbers for each month in this post.

The number to date in July for EB2-ROW primary applicants is 36, including NIW.

That is made up of:

EB2 ----------- 20
EB2-NIW ------- 11
EB2 Indian CC -- 3
Removed -------- 2

Total --------- 36

The average for EB2 in a normal year is about 48 per month.

Numbers to date in FY2013

Oct ---- 68
Nov --- 122
Dec ---- 44
Jan ---- 89
Feb ---- 75
Mar ---- 65
Apr ---- 61
May ---- 56
Jun ---- 47
Jul ---- 36

Total - 663

erikbond101

It means final COD will be based on
I-485 pending+ porters + 15-20% extra margin

Assuming 18K SO
12K (I-485 number)+6K (porters) will take COD to some date in April 2008 and considering 3K (margin) will take COD to May 2008.




Lets cross fingers for April 2008 the realistic figure predicted by Matt

Quote:

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Originally Posted by seattlet

maybe the slow PERM processing is finally showing its results. Currently PERM is only approved until end of january PD. Normally it would have been till end of may PD by this time.
to me it translates into roughly 15 K EB2 ROW PERMS on hold compared to regular processing timeline (assuming eb2 ROW consumes 36 K visas each year)

Folks who had got their PERM approved till end of April PD, could have got 140 approved in 15 days, and filed 485 by third week of may. There is a good chance they would
have got 485 approved by mid august or end of august ( 3 months) . My opinion is that this slow PERM processing though may not help Eb2 I to move significantly, has atleast ensured EB2 ROW didnt have a cut off date and consume all spill overs.

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seattlet,

I agree that the PERM processing slowdown will limit EB2-WW approvals to somewhere around their allocation - it could have been worse than that.

The slowdown in PERM is partly offset by slightly faster USCIS processing times for I-485 this year.

The bad news is that, if PERM processing times improve after sequestration ends, EB2-WW approvals in FY2014 are likely to be slightly higher than a normal year which will squeeze SOFAD in FY2014.

In may ways it is a choice between jam today, or jam tomorrow - the numbers will be the same eventually, all other factors being equal.

Of 186 EB2-ROW Trackitt I-485 primary cases currently pending, 169 have a PD of 2012 or earlier, so there are still plenty left even without considering 2013 PDs. Of those, 115 have been pending at least 165 days (the mean approval time).

Currently 26 cases have been approved with a 2013 PD, 17 of which are NIW that do not require a PERM certification.

IMHO- It is unlikey that there would be 6K porters that would be added to demand in the shortest available time, it would take atleast 1-2 months. I guess CO would ignore that number and if indeed materializes then could always retrogress later internally- Hence 'come September'

Quote:

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Originally Posted by coolvibe

erikbond101

It means final COD will be based on
I-485 pending+ porters + 15-20% extra margin

Assuming 18K SO
12K (I-485 number)+6K (porters) will take COD to some date in April 2008 and considering 3K (margin) will take COD to May 2008.




Lets cross fingers for April 2008 the realistic figure predicted by Matt

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Good luck !!! to all those who will be current starting tomorrow. Please keep us updated.

Spec,
i agree with you. It is a choice of jam today or tomorrow for most folks. However for folks in PD 2007 it is a matter of getting GC this year or next (and because of PERM slowdown they might
be able to get it this year which would be a big difference to them). Similarly for first time filers in 2007 and early 2008 it might help them to get EAD this year vs next. That would also
make a big difference in their lives too. Agreed that dates would regrogress but this slowdown is preferable for EB2 I folks with 2007 and early 2008 PDs since without the slowdown EB2 I folks would have not got much this year and would have been waitin till May / Jun 2014 for any meaningful COD move.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

seattlet,

I agree that the PERM processing slowdown will limit EB2-WW approvals to somewhere around their allocation - it could have been worse than that.

The slowdown in PERM is partly offset by slightly faster USCIS processing times for I-485 this year.

The bad news is that, if PERM processing times improve after sequestration ends, EB2-WW approvals in FY2014 are likely to be slightly higher than a normal year which will squeeze SOFAD in FY2014.

In may ways it is a choice between jam today, or jam tomorrow - the numbers will be the same eventually, all other factors being equal.

Of 186 EB2-ROW Trackitt I-485 primary cases currently pending, 169 have a PD of 2012 or earlier, so there are still plenty left even without considering 2013 PDs. Of those, 115 have been pending at least 165 days (the mean approval time).

Currently 26 cases have been approved with a 2013 PD, 17 of which are NIW that do not require a PERM certification.

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