EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

This may sound stupid question... but i will ask anyway...

Is it possible that out of 42K applications, Few thousand of them are not yet pre-adjudicated (RFE etc). Reason why this occured to me is, we see about 9K numbers in EB2-ROW (4K are in 2010). Even though they appear in inventory report, they will not be approved/greened in FY 2011. Same is true for EB1.

Is that possible for EB2? If yes, then we will have surplus spillover and that may be passed on to EB3

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Originally Posted by Spectator

bhayzone,

I agree absolutely with Q.

42k is probably the magic number.

Most dependents that have never had a chance to file I-485, like PWMB, won't have time to be approved this FY.

So, with IC starting with 5.6k allocation, spillover of 37.4k is needed to clear the current backlog.

That is a tall order and needs everything to come in at the top end of expectations - something like:

EB4 -- 8.0
EB1 - 20.0
EB2 -- 9.4
Tot - 37.4

and some of those are looking quite tight.

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Q, Spec

howmuch additional spillover you are estimating due to delay in processing times? just trying to understand it's impact on next year sofad

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Originally Posted by skpanda

This may sound stupid question... but i will ask anyway...

Is it possible that out of 42K applications, Few thousand of them are not yet pre-adjudicated (RFE etc). Reason why this occured to me is, we see about 9K numbers in EB2-ROW (4K are in 2010). Even though they appear in inventory report, they will not be approved/greened in FY 2011. Same is true for EB1.

Is that possible for EB2? If yes, then we will have surplus spillover and that may be passed on to EB3

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skpanda,

No question is stupid. It's actually a very good question.

It is possible, but I think it less likely for EB2-IC cases.

There are about 1.5k EB2-IC cases on the USCIS Inventory up to the end of 2005 that do not appear in the Demand data. Possibly, they won't get approved, since they appear to be "difficult" cases. On the other hand, there are about 1k more EB2-I cases for 2006 on the USCIS inventory than in the Demand data. They may be new applications from dependents (or PWMB) and stand a better chance of being approved.

The Demand Data for 2007 cases is 15,325 versus the USCIS Inventory number of 15,468. That tends to suggest that DOS are aware of all the cases, which wouldn't be the case if they hadn't already been pre-adjudicated.

It might end up that the factors just cancel each other out. I don't know the answer.

Thanks for the update. Hoping to see some good results.

Thanks,
mvinayam

agree w spec. there are alwasy nuances like those 1.5K cases. So its always a good thing to stay at macro factors and then try to predict.

Another thing is that we are considering that there won't be any denials which is a bit conservative. In reality there will be some denials (may be 2%) but we haven't factored that in.


Thirdly there are always multiple way to predict. What specifically I am doing is .. following two separate ways to predict.
1. Fundamental model depicted at the head of this thread.
2. Trackitt based model in "FACTS and DATA" section. http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...ED-PROJECTIONS

Bieber, I generally try to predict full year. As it is there are so many unknowns in full year prediction. When one tries to figure how much SOFAD is already realized vs what's to come, it increases the probability of error. Sorry I can't answer your question. But Teddy usually does split data this way. Teddy can u pls help Bieber?

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Originally Posted by Spectator

skpanda,

No question is stupid. It's actually a very good question.

It is possible, but I think it less likely for EB2-IC cases.

There are about 1.5k EB2-IC cases on the USCIS Inventory up to the end of 2005 that do not appear in the Demand data. Possibly, they won't get approved, since they appear to be "difficult" cases. On the other hand, there are about 1k more EB2-I cases for 2006 on the USCIS inventory than in the Demand data. They may be new applications from dependents (or PWMB) and stand a better chance of being approved.

The Demand Data for 2007 cases is 15,325 versus the USCIS Inventory number of 15,468. That tends to suggest that DOS are aware of all the cases, which wouldn't be the case if they hadn't already been pre-adjudicated.

It might end up that the factors just cancel each other out. I don't know the answer.

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I was thinking about what may happen next year. Going forward, there will be newly filed I-485 cases for EB2 I&C in a sizable volume compared to previous year. This is going to slow down processing time of EB2ROW cases even though they are current. As such our prediction models need to change. Because USCIS processes applications in the order they were received, EB2ROWs that file after the EB2 I&C intake will see markedly longer processing times. Our models will need to account for this. May be this means good news for EB2I&C. It would be illustrative to check what the Eb2ROW processing times were after the July 2007 fiasco.

Hello Gurus, My PD is Aug-08. Can someone tell me when can I expect to be greened ?

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Bieber, I generally try to predict full year. As it is there are so many unknowns in full year prediction. When one tries to figure how much SOFAD is already realized vs what's to come, it increases the probability of error. Sorry I can't answer your question. But Teddy usually does split data this way. Teddy can u pls help Bieber?

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Q, thanks, that's ok. Just wondered if fy2011 using 'supposedly' fy2012 spill over.
Do you agree, as long as we don't see huge surge in EB1 demand next year should be atleast better than fy2010

Folks,

Let us say DOS moves the dates to August 1 2007 and brings the EB2 inventory to 35K and there are 35K visas available.
Obviously, CIS cannot go through all these 35k in 2 months.

In this scenario:
a. Would CIS be able to allot a visa to each of these applications first and then process the applications at their own speed? ( since denial rate is 2%, max wastage would be 2% in this case.)
b. Would CIS allot visas at random among all documentarily qualified folks across the EB board.?
c. What would happen to the 35K EB2 inventory built in the case of (b)--they would sit and wait for Visa number for another year?

I know more or less the answer is (b) & (c), but want all your opinions and thoughts :)

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Originally Posted by kd2008

I was thinking about what may happen next year. Going forward, there will be newly filed I-485 cases for EB2 I&C in a sizable volume compared to previous year. This is going to slow down processing time of EB2ROW cases even though they are current. As such our prediction models need to change. Because USCIS processes applications in the order they were received, EB2ROWs that file after the EB2 I&C intake will see markedly longer processing times. Our models will need to account for this. May be this means good news for EB2I&C. It would be illustrative to check what the Eb2ROW processing times were after the July 2007 fiasco.

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Or USCIS can decide to priorize their resources on applications that are Current or just about to become Current. Any excess capacity can be used to pre-adjudicate the retrogressed cases. That's what appeared to happen post 2007.

Retrogression will mean that most of the EB2-IC cases won't be Current. That gives USCIS a possible 9 months to work through them before the window opens again in July 2012, if the Cut Off Dates are moved forward in September 2011.

Who knows?

I agree, even pushing forward enough to collect the next year's applications is going to cause logistical problems for USCIS. Currently, their Production rate is not high enough to cope with the influx.

Q, Can you ask your source to check with VO on the cutoff dates for August and September? Thanks a lot.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Header Updated.

The key messages are:

Based on USCIS processing times and Trackitt data it seems EB1 and EB2ROW both are very slow to process cases filed in 2011 FY. This will result in SOFAD large enough to clear all teh way through Aug 2007 for EB2I with a decent chance that there actually will be some SOFAD given to EB3 too.

As per EB2, DoS will probably move the dates into Aug 2007 in Aug 2011 bulletin itself. The reason being they might want to accomodate as much PWMB as possible. Then in Sep or OCt bulleting thtey will probably move dates 1 year ahead to take in large applciations and then retrogress dates in November.

Please check header for details.

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Spec,

Estimation of PWMB EB2IC per month from Mar07-July07:

I used your approved PERM-IC data & EB2IC-I485 Inventory to get an estimation of PWMB per month from March 2007 - July2007. The formula I used is PWMB = PERM,IC*(EB2:EB3 Ratio)*(Dependent Factor)-EB2IC,485.
I calculated EB2:EB3 Ratio for every month (but average was around 0.66) and dependent factor used was 2.25. The total PWMB from March'07-July'07 I got was 7,201 with individual months distribution given in the table. Does this makes sense?



---------------EB2 I-485 Applied----------------PermIC*(EB2:EB3 Ratio)*(Dependent Factor)---------------------PWMB EB2 Prim & Dep
----------------India+China--------------------------------------India+China-------------------------------------India+China
Mar 07-------------2047----------------------------------------------3052-------------------------------------1005
Apr 07-------------2022-----------------------------------------------3632-------------------------------------1610
May 07------------1588----------------------------------------------3182-------------------------------------1594
Jun 07-------------1819----------------------------------------------4010--------------------------------------2191
Jul 07--------------3319---------------------------------------------4119---------------------------------------800
Total---------------10795--------------------------------------------17996------------------------------------7201

Thanks for your your help.

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Originally Posted by imechanix

Spec,

Estimation of PWMB EB2IC per month from Mar07-July07:

I used your approved PERM-IC data & EB2IC-I485 Inventory to get an estimation of PWMB per month from March 2007 - July2007. The formula I used is PWMB = PERM,IC*(EB2:EB3 Ratio)*(Dependent Factor)-EB2IC,485.
I calculated EB2:EB3 Ratio for every month (but average was around 0.66) and dependent factor used was 2.25. The total PWMB from March'07-July'07 I got was 7,201 with individual months distribution given in the table. Does this makes sense?



---------------EB2 I-485 Applied----------------PermIC*(EB2:EB3 Ratio)*(Dependent Factor)---------------------PWMB EB2 Prim & Dep
----------------India+China--------------------------------------India+China-------------------------------------India+China
Mar 07-------------2047----------------------------------------------3052-------------------------------------1005
Apr 07-------------2022-----------------------------------------------3632-------------------------------------1610
May 07------------1588----------------------------------------------3182-------------------------------------1594
Jun 07-------------1819----------------------------------------------4010--------------------------------------2191
Jul 07--------------3319---------------------------------------------4119---------------------------------------800
Total---------------10795--------------------------------------------17996------------------------------------7201

Thanks for your your help.

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imechanix,
You can use 2007 PWMB PERM Table for I+C to calculate 485 demand until July 2007.

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Originally Posted by skpanda

This may sound stupid question... but i will ask anyway...

Is it possible that out of 42K applications, Few thousand of them are not yet pre-adjudicated (RFE etc). Reason why this occured to me is, we see about 9K numbers in EB2-ROW (4K are in 2010). Even though they appear in inventory report, they will not be approved/greened in FY 2011. Same is true for EB1.

Is that possible for EB2? If yes, then we will have surplus spillover and that may be passed on to EB3

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skpanda,
It could be, Just looking at demand data published since October 2010, show max demand of 23k only for EB2I even though 24.2k is known from OCT2010 inventory update. Similarly 11.3k for EB2C or EB2IC max as 34.2k out of 36.7k known demand!

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Spec I am sure you meant EB5 below. And I would agree. But may be I would reduce that to 6K.


The calculated number tells us that 37% of 2011 485s will be processed. Trackitt confirms for EB1. For EB2 trackitt shows that it will be 50%.

So varying the number betwee 37% and 50% .... at higher end it will blow past Aug 2007. At lower end it will be Jun 2007 or something.

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Q,
This might be a very basic question. If the EB2ROW approvals are on the higher side (~50%) then EB2-I/C approvals will be in and around June'07 and USCIS already has pending applications to approve for that. On the other hand, if the EB2-ROW approval is on the lower side (~37%), then EB2I/C approvals will go past Aug'07. Now, if it goes beyond Aug'07, then the new applications (along with the PWMB cases from Jan - July'07) are unlikely to be approved this year. So, I assume in that case there might be remaining visas with not enough EB2 I/C applications to approve and the spillovers will go to EB3-ROW category. I guess this situation can happen in future years too if USCIS doesn't have enough I485 applications in pipeline, which might me one reason for advancing and then retrogressing the PDs. Also, for this year, is there a possibility that PWMB cases that are filed during early July'11 might get approved as there will be ~3 months time for approval prior to Sep 30.

Thanks!

It's because they won't have enough pre-adj applications in the pipleline - they may want to push dates forward to build at least a year's inventory and retrogress - just my humble opinion of course :)

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Spec I am sure you meant EB5 below. And I would agree. But may be I would reduce that to 6K.

What we see today is a perfect combinations that are suitable for clearing the backlog through Aug 07. It consists of following conditions.
1. Portings low
2. PWMB impact none.
3. 485 processing dates around 31 Oct 2010 (Texas), 02 Dec 2010 (Nebrasca). And 485 split between the two centers is 70-30.
#3 is especially important since it means very less from 2011 will be processed. This chokes up the EB1 and EB2 ROW 485s.

The calculated number tells us that 37% of 2011 485s will be processed. Trackitt confirms for EB1. For EB2 trackitt shows that it will be 50%.

So varying the number betwee 37% and 50% .... at higher end it will blow past Aug 2007. At lower end it will be Jun 2007 or something.

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Q,
Just looking at I-526 approvals from Oct 2010 - Mar2011 (about 700 approvals) and EB5-485 ratio, i agree that EB2I&C may not be able to get 8K from EB5 this year.

Also i agree with #1 &#2 but for #3, even though USCIS website showing 485 processing 2010 cases, we see 2011(receipt) approvals (EB1&EB2ROW) on Trackitt!

Veni, we probably would. But consider this fact.

Per trackitt data, 576 cases were filed in EB1 and EB2ROW in this FY. Of which 322 are still pending.

That is 56% pending.

Of the ones approved 254, 126 i.e. 50% are post Dec 2010. So yes there are cases frm 2011 FY that are approved and there will be such cases. But the overwhelming statistics is that 56% of 2011 demand in EB1 and EB2 ROW will not be processed this year (assuming that trend holds.) We will see!

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Originally Posted by veni001

Also i agree with #1 &#2 but for #3, even though USCIS website showing 485 processing 2010 cases, we see 2011(receipt) approvals (EB1&EB2ROW) on Trackitt!

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Originally Posted by pch053

have forwarded AC21 docs to USCIS and have also received a confirmation saying that the AC21 docs have been appended to my I 485 application, etc.

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Hi pch -
I recently filed an AC-21 notice as well and was under the impresssion that USCIS does not provide any indication that this has been accepted. Would you mind elaborating on the form of confirmation that you received?
Apologies if this is thread hijacking.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by victorian

Hi pch -
I recently filed an AC-21 notice as well and was under the impresssion that USCIS does not provide any indication that this has been accepted. Would you mind elaborating on the form of confirmation that you received?
Apologies if this is thread hijacking.

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I think there is no guarantee that USCIS will send an acknowledgment after receiving AC21 docs. In fact, there are many instances where the AC21 docs don't even reach one's I485 file. Its somewhat random on whether one will received an acknowledgment from USCIS after submitting the AC21 docs and this shouldn't have any effect on the pending I485 application. If Q and others suggest, I can open another thread and type the contents of the letter (or just type the contents of the letter in this thread itself); its a simple letter saying they received the AC21 related docs and appended it to my pending I485 application.

we have an AC21 thread at http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...All-about-AC21 we can use that.

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Originally Posted by pch053

I think there is no guarantee that USCIS will send an acknowledgment after receiving AC21 docs. In fact, there are many instances where the AC21 docs don't even reach one's I485 file. Its somewhat random on whether one will received an acknowledgment from USCIS after submitting the AC21 docs and this shouldn't have any effect on the pending I485 application. If Q and others suggest, I can open another thread and type the contents of the letter (or just type the contents of the letter in this thread itself); its a simple letter saying they received the AC21 related docs and appended it to my pending I485 application.

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Originally Posted by veni001

imechanix,
You can use 2007 PWMB PERM Table for I+C to calculate 485 demand until July 2007.

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Thanks Veni. I did not pay attention to that information.

Maybe I am incorrect, but I think EB1, EB2 ROW since are current, can file 140 and 485 concurrently. So in that case, the 485 cannot be approved until the 140 is approved, so in fact, the time taken for 140 approval maybe the reason, why we think it's taking long for 485 to get approved.

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

Maybe I am incorrect, but I think EB1, EB2 ROW since are current, can file 140 and 485 concurrently. So in that case, the 485 cannot be approved until the 140 is approved, so in fact, the time taken for 140 approval maybe the reason, why we think it's taking long for 485 to get approved.

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nishant,

I am sure that must be true to a certain extent (maybe it the main reason), but it can't be the sole reason.

According to this document http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...t-response.pdf (page 8 of the pdf) it says about the USCIS Inventory :

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B. I-485 Inventory Report

.........

In instances where the green card application and the petition for an alien worker are filed concurrently, and the petition has not yet been adjudicated – meaning country of chargeability, preference, and priority date are as yet unknown – the green card application does not appear in the inventory. This may include newly-filed cases where both the green card application and the petition are within target cycle-times. However, a newly-filed green card application based on an approved petition will appear in the inventory if it was filed prior to the posting of the latest inventory report.

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That means that all cases in the USCIS Inventory already have an approved I-140 and many of them have been pending for some time. They would be in addition to those still within the cycle time for the I-140.

I have to ask - if USCIS can't deal with normal volumes, how are they going to cope with all the extra EB2-IC that will be coming their way shortly? The two Service Centers already had a backlog of 80k I-485 in March 2011.

Amazing. Thanks for the helpful response.

Have to say, there is more sense of peace and calm and knowledge gathering and sharing in this forum.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

nishant,

I am sure that must be true to a certain extent (maybe it the main reason), but it can't be the sole reason.

According to this document http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...t-response.pdf (page 8 of the pdf) it says about the USCIS Inventory :



That means that all cases in the USCIS Inventory already have an approved I-140 and many of them have been pending for some time. They would be in addition to those still within the cycle time for the I-140.

I have to ask - if USCIS can't deal with normal volumes, how are they going to cope with all the extra EB2-IC that will be coming their way shortly? The two Service Centers already had a backlog of 80k I-485 in March 2011.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

Amazing. Thanks for the helpful response.

Have to say, there is more sense of peace and calm and knowledge gathering and sharing in this forum.

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u mean to say after the "quarter" fiasco :)

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Originally Posted by cbpds1

u mean to say after the "quarter" fiasco :)

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you got it man ;)

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Veni, we probably would. But consider this fact.

Per trackitt data, 576 cases were filed in EB1 and EB2ROW in this FY. Of which 322 are still pending.

That is 56% pending.

Of the ones approved 254, 126 i.e. 50% are post Dec 2010. So yes there are cases frm 2011 FY that are approved and there will be such cases. But the overwhelming statistics is that 56% of 2011 demand in EB1 and EB2 ROW will not be processed this year (assuming that trend holds.) We will see!

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Q,
Let's hope for the best for FY 2011, but processing delay(EB1&EB2ROW-M-P) is going to hurt EB2I&C movement in the long run.

Not sure what's cooking behind the doors with DOS/USCIS, no demand data for July 2011, no FY 2011 prediction in July VB and also no update on dashboard for April 2011 processing volumes & trends yet!

As of now, for EB2-I I see the following approvals in trackitt:
May 2011: 138 (only 28 of these approvals are after 15th May)
June 2011: 129 (as of now)
In the month of May, most of the approvals were in the first half of the month and there were only 28 approvals after 15th May. If this trend follows in June too, then we won't have that many more approvals (maybe another 40 - 50 or so in trackitt) for the rest of the month. So, one thing that is surprising to me is that even though the movement in PDs was quite different for the months of May and June (7 weeks vs. 19 weeks), the # of trackitt approvals during these two months is not significantly different. Also, is there a thumb rule on what fraction of overall EB2I is represented inside trackitt (I have seen estimates ranging from 5 - 7%)? If so, it might give us an idea on the # of applicants in the overall EB2I pool that are getting their I485 approvals.

bieber I didn't understand what you are asking. In terms of how next FY (i..e 2012) will look like - the favorability in EB1 EB2ROW this year is because of delay in processing. Not the reduction in demand itself. There is 20% reduction in EB2ROW demand yes. So, next year all that unprocessed 2011 demand is going to hit the pipeline and 2012 will be bad for EB2IC. How bad? We will know after Oct 2011 inventory is published. But get this ... at that point most of the backlog will be cleared and hopefully USCIS will have taken in new apps. These people will at least be happy that they have an EAD to work with. While not ideal ... that is better than waiting to file 485.

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Originally Posted by bieber

Q, thanks, that's ok. Just wondered if fy2011 using 'supposedly' fy2012 spill over.
Do you agree, as long as we don't see huge surge in EB1 demand next year should be atleast better than fy2010

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Leo, a lot of those 35K are already processed. Secondly I wouldn't doubt USCIS's ability to process 35K in two months when almost all of them are preadjudicated. The visa allocation will proceed mostly by PD. That's what the law says.

Bottomline I do not believe for a second that any visa will be wasted.

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Originally Posted by leo07

Folks,
Let us say DOS moves the dates to August 1 2007 and brings the EB2 inventory to 35K and there are 35K visas available.
Obviously, CIS cannot go through all these 35k in 2 months.

In this scenario:
a. Would CIS be able to allot a visa to each of these applications first and then process the applications at their own speed? ( since denial rate is 2%, max wastage would be 2% in this case.)
b. Would CIS allot visas at random among all documentarily qualified folks across the EB board.?
c. What would happen to the 35K EB2 inventory built in the case of (b)--they would sit and wait for Visa number for another year?

I know more or less the answer is (b) & (c), but want all your opinions and thoughts :)

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This aint going to happen before second week of July. There is nothing meaningful he is going to give to us.

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Originally Posted by th5000th

Q, Can you ask your source to check with VO on the cutoff dates for August and September? Thanks a lot.

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A bit difficult to be honest w you. The reason being, their processing times for 485 are stuck at the ones filed in Q4 2010. But USCIS is strange sometimes and some applications will scrape by. I just wouldn't like to say that generally that's what will happen.

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Originally Posted by pch053

for this year, is there a possibility that PWMB cases that are filed during early July'11 might get approved as there will be ~3 months time for approval prior to Sep 30.

Thanks!

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That's for sure. The better the 2011 will be the worse 2012 will be from EB2IC perspective.

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Originally Posted by veni001

Q,
Let's hope for the best for FY 2011, but processing delay(EB1&EB2ROW-M-P) is going to hurt EB2I&C movement in the long run.

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Q - you mentioned: the favorability in EB1 EB2ROW this year is because of delay in processing. Not the reduction in demand itself. That could be the case for EB2 row but for EB1, didn't CO say that demand is extremely low - that would mean that the number of applications filed itself is lower, now that processing delays. Or did I understand that incorrectly.

Q, I don't think they will waste visas either. But, I do think that they will not be able to follow fifo all through.

My question is more about the applications that are filed( to be filed) in July-August-September. Will CIS/DOS be able to allocate visas from the current quota, even if they were to be processed post october 2011.

Not sure, if I framed my question clearly:)

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Leo, a lot of those 35K are already processed. Secondly I wouldn't doubt USCIS's ability to process 35K in two months when almost all of them are preadjudicated. The visa allocation will proceed mostly by PD. That's what the law says.

Bottomline I do not believe for a second that any visa will be wasted.


.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by leo07

Q, I don't think they will waste visas either. But, I do think that they will not be able to follow fifo all through.

My question is more about the applications that are filed( to be filed) in July-August-September. Will CIS/DOS be able to allocate visas from the current quota, even if they were to be processed post october 2011.

Not sure, if I framed my question clearly:)

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I dont think they will be able to process any new applications. They are some preadjucated cases July,Aug 2007, they probably clear those.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

we have an AC21 thread at http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...All-about-AC21 we can use that.

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Thanks; I have a post in the above thread with the contents of the AC21 acknowledgement letter that I received from USCIS a while back.

So, what are they going to do with these new applications, which they cannot get through the system before October 1st?

One answer is, these applications will sit in the line until next festive season.( Jul-Aug-Sept)
I'm trying to find out if they can allot visas,if available, for these applications from this years pool, but process after October 2011.

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Originally Posted by neospeed

I dont think they will be able to process any new applications. They are some preadjucated cases July,Aug 2007, they probably clear those.

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Originally Posted by pch053

As of now, for EB2-I I see the following approvals in trackitt:
May 2011: 138 (only 28 of these approvals are after 15th May)
June 2011: 129 (as of now)
In the month of May, most of the approvals were in the first half of the month and there were only 28 approvals after 15th May. If this trend follows in June too, then we won't have that many more approvals (maybe another 40 - 50 or so in trackitt) for the rest of the month. So, one thing that is surprising to me is that even though the movement in PDs was quite different for the months of May and June (7 weeks vs. 19 weeks), the # of trackitt approvals during these two months is not significantly different. Also, is there a thumb rule on what fraction of overall EB2I is represented inside trackitt (I have seen estimates ranging from 5 - 7%)? If so, it might give us an idea on the # of applicants in the overall EB2I pool that are getting their I485 approvals.

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That information is already available here http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...011-vs.-FY2010 and is updated at least daily. It is for Primary applicants only and is adjusted for Porting cases, different chargeability etc.

For comparison, the approval profile for May, versus the one in June to date is.

MAY
Date - 1 -- 2 -- 3 -- 4 -- 5 -- 6 -- 7 -- 8 -- 9 -- 10 -- 11 -- 12 -- 13 -- 14 -- 15 -- 16 -- 17 -- 18 -- 19 -- 20 -- 21 -- 22 -- 23 -- 24 -- 25 -- 26 -- 27 -- 28 -- 29 -- 30 --31
No. -- 0 - 15 - 23 - 19 - 14 -- 2 -- 0 -- 0 - 14 --- 8 --- 9 --- 7 --- 8 --- 4 --- 2 --- 3 --- 3 ---3 --- 2 --- 2 --- 0 --- 0 --- 2 --- 2 --- 0 --- 6 --- 6 --- 0 --- 0 --- 2 --- 5
Total - 161

JUNE
Date - 1 -- 2 -- 3 -- 4 -- 5 -- 6 -- 7 -- 8 -- 9 -- 10 -- 11 -- 12 -- 13 -- 14 -- 15 -- 16 -- 17 -- 18 -- 19 -- 20 -- 21 -- 22 -- 23 -- 24 -- 25 -- 26 -- 27 -- 28 -- 29 -- 30
No. -- 6 - 20 - 23 -- 3 -- 4 -- 5 - 19 - 18 - 11 --- 5 --- 1 --- 0 --- 5 --- 3
Total - 125

The May profile suggests USCIS were able to allocate the available numbers fairly quickly. Since there are more available in June, perhaps the tail won't be so long.

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Originally Posted by leo07

So, what are they going to do with these new applications, which they cannot get through the system before October 1st?

One answer is, these applications will sit in the line until next festive season.( Jul-Aug-Sept)
I'm trying to find out if they can allot visas,if available, for these applications from this years pool, but process after October 2011.

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Leo07,
It's not just EB2I&C demand for the next two months, we have to realize the fact that there are ~20k (EB1&EB2ROW-M-P) pending, of which ~15k is from FY 2010 and before.
Since 485 processing dates are almost at the end of 2010, the number of approvable applications out of the 15k in the next two months is key!

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Originally Posted by Spectator

That information is already available here http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...011-vs.-FY2010 and is updated at least daily. It is for Primary applicants only and is adjusted for Porting cases, different chargeability etc.

The May profile suggests USCIS were able to allocate the available numbers fairly quickly. Since there are more available in June, perhaps the tail won't be so long.

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Thanks Spec for the link; it is very informative. Sorry, I missed it before I posted the above!

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Originally Posted by leo07

So, what are they going to do with these new applications, which they cannot get through the system before October 1st?

One answer is, these applications will sit in the line until next festive season.( Jul-Aug-Sept)
I'm trying to find out if they can allot visas,if available, for these applications from this years pool, but process after October 2011.

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The applications can be processed through to pre-adjudication in time for the next spillover season, giving a maximum of 9 months to do so.

USCIS do not request a visa from DOS for a case until it is adjudicated - until then, they don't know if it is approvable.

In any case, if such a mechanism existed, they would have to use it for the backlog of EB1/EB2-ROW cases that are already Current, reducing SOFAD - why only the new EB2-IC cases?