This makes sense. I left the 'D' part. ThanksQuote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Printable View
This makes sense. I left the 'D' part. ThanksQuote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Q- this represents 15 month worth if demand. Not that it dilutes the point you are making but still wanted to point out. Another thing is if PERM delay continue for rest of FY then this demand might even out over next yearsQuote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Jagan - thanks for those numbers.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
I consider following as worst case scerario
Supply - Spillover
EB1 - 3k
EB2 ROW- 2k
EB4- 3 k
EB5 - 0.5k
(The above includes the 8K FB extra visas)
Total supply - 8.5 +3k = 11.5k
Demand-
Porting - EB3>Eb2 -- 6k
demand before June 15,2008 - 3k
Total demand ---9k
leftover for forward movement =SUpply-demand = 2.5k
This could bring the dates in sep 2014 for EB2I = AUg 15 2008
Offcourse this is worst case but not unrealistic.
I am sorry I am not sure I understand. Can you please explain.Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
So EB2ROW was retro for last 3 months of FY2012...in the numbers from FY2013 include those.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
sun - that's very good point. And generally that would'nt be applicable to retro categories. But EB2ROW is a generally current category and so it does apply. Thanks.Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
And yes you are right ..... the larger point still remains valid .... but the severity is reduced somewhat.
Actually here is another take, all you Gurus can critiqueQuote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Lets assume that PERM to Green Card for EB2ROW(non- I and C) takes 3 months (mostly true). So, you will have to assume that Q3 and Q4 2012 PERM is factored into 2013 GC demand since EB2ROW was U in Q42012.
Now (Q3 + Q4) 2012 PERMS = ~38K (see below link)
http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...ation_2012.pdf
2013 PERMS = ~35K (By the same logic as above, we need to take out Q4 2013, ~7K) (see below link)
http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...013_YTD_Q4.pdf
So, we can say that 66K (38K (2012) + 35K (2013) - 7K (Q4 2013)) were approved for the 2013 Green Card quota.
We all know that certain percentage of 66K PERMS is EB2ROW(non- I and C), lets say 30%
So, 66K * 30% ~20K EB2ROW(non- I and C) PERMS got converted into ~40K EB2ROW(non- I and C) Green Cards, giving us a rough 1:2 ratio.
Now in 2014, lets say 40K PERMS are approved out of which 30% (12K) are EB2ROW(non I and C)
So, by the above logic EB2ROW should use around 24K Green Cards leaving ~20K for EB2I and C. Now C uses 3K leaving I with 17K
The wild card is of course PERM processing. I also haven't yet factored in other spillovers. What did I miss ? :confused:
Hi Q ,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
My PD is July 2006 eb3 I and we have been waiting patiently for the past 8 years. My kid will be going to college in 2016. It would be nice to have our GC by 2015 Dec when he starts applying for colleges. Do you think there is a chance that we might get GC by that time ?
Thank you very much in advance.
Amul
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Q, Kanmani,
I had a question regarding the 7k visas given to S.Korea and 4.4k to Philippines. I remember someone sharing a document stating that all spillover should go to the most retrogressed country. According to that, EB2I should have received entire spillover. Basically, we were robbed of by S. Korea and Philippines and we lost 3.4 k visas.
Is EB2I supposed to receive the complete spillover coming to EB2 or not ?
The rule is spillover goes to the most retrogressed country assuming other countries have met their annual 7% quota. That quota is combined FB+EB. So the fact that SK and Phil got those EB visas meant that they didn't exceed their annual EB+FB quota.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
Viz,Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
Thanks. Follow up Question.
1. In the example of Phil, they received a total of 26,840 out of total of 377,022. That exceeds the 7%. Something went wrong here and we lost our spillover.
2. In case of Phil, both EB2 and EB3 received more than the allocation. Once a country has demand left in both EB2 and EB3 and they are below the 7%, then which category gets the visas first. EB2 OR EB3. Basically if they give all visas to EB3 until 7% is met then EB2 visas wont be utilized and if they give all visas to EB2 until 7% is met then EB3 visas wont be utilized.
If you look at the last inventory, there are a little more than 10000 EB2I 2008 waiting for their Visas. If you take porting into account (estimated at around 4000-5000), I just don't see how the dates can cross Dec 2008 in a sustainable way. To me, even Dec is looking a bit shaky. I'm not being pessimistic, just trying to make sense of what's actually possible - I guess someone has to since Spec has gone missing!
It will always be EB2 first and then EB3.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
Every year there is some goof up with the numbers and allocation but the basic "rules" are in place.
redwood - sorry I was away for a few days. We rented a cabin that had no internet. So couldn't respond earlier.
I think your thought process is right. Other people might have debate if it is 30% or 35% or 40%. Or whether 1 ROW PERM converts to 1.5 or 2 or 2.15. They are all assumptions anyway. So I think your thought process is largely right.
But what Sun said and I responded to was his assertion that in 2013 whatever X GCs EB2ROW received didn't map to 12 months of demand .... but rather 15 months. And so in 2014 ... all else being equal EB2ROW should consume X / 15 * 12 i.e 80% of 2013 visa consumption. So you may want to cross check your theory against this 80% number.
p.s. - A note to other moderators .... whenever you logon please check the moderator queue for any unapproved posts. This way new people won't have to wait too much before their posts are approved. Thanks much for your work.
Quote:
Originally Posted by redwood
And I think that is what I differ on .Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
if
(Q3 + Q4) 2012 PERMS = ~38K and
(Q1+Q2+Q3+Q4) 2013 PERMS = ~35K
(see links in my prior post)
and if DOL continues with the similar pace as 2013 then
the 2013 GC EB2ROW consumption was >24 months and not 15 months worth of demand.
I think that your assumption of 3 month turnaround for EB2ROW doesn't gel with 24 months of backlog clearance for EB2ROW in 2013.
Something has to give.
p.s. - The 6 quarters you show below are 18 months. And I don't think that Q4 can be counted at all (assuming USCIS calendar here). So we are talking about Q3 that experienced retrogression. Q4 and Q1-3 from 2012. That's 15 months. I would take that 15 months - map to labor data and use the actual approvals vs labor data to figure out ROW %. You can't make a % assumption on ROW and then try to map based on that to months. Hope it makes sense!
Quote:
Originally Posted by redwood
Hi Gurus, I need a bit of advise. My current H1 is expiring first week of August. My company law firm sent a notice to apply for H1 extension. I have EAD valid until March 2015. With my priority date (5th Aug 2008), I think there is a fair chance I will get GC by then. I believe they don't know about my EAD extension and validity of that new EAD card, which I extended myself.
1. What are the pros and cons of applying for extension? Should I even be spending time filling paper work, sending, etc.
2. I have a planned India trip this June, will be back first week of July. Anything related to that trip?
3. Also if I get any good opportunity around (not that I am seriously looking), any effect if I decide to move on?
redwood,Quote:
Originally Posted by redwood
15 months demand is accumulated during the door shut period for EB2 ROW (july, Aug, Sept of 2012). EB2ROW were unable to file their I-485 due to retrogression, hence the 2013 approvals included those 3 months worth of demand. This scenario is entirely different from the perm delay one.
This theory can also be used to calculate the porting demand, porters had an 18 months wait time to get promoted to the demand data queue and then to GC approval, considering the cut of date was retrogressed from April 2012 to July 2013.
One comforting news is that 2014 may see less accumulation w.r.to porters, as the gate was open until Nov 2013.
Looking at your priority date, looks like there is a fair chance that you could get current before you H1 expires, but you may not be able to get the GC till the end of Aug or later, depends on the processing time.Quote:
Originally Posted by sreddy
But having said that applying for an extension should not be an issue if your company is paying for it, which it should(the law states that). You also have an EAD which will help you get in and out of the US without a visa.
If you think it's an hassle to file, it is up to you to decide. I am on my 11th year of H1 and will continue to be till I get my GC. All the points you have indicated should not be an issue.
Has anyone received their green card recently with PD beyond 2008 in EB2-I category? I have been hearing that though the visa bulletin says Nov 2004, some folks whose cases had been assigned a visa # have received the green cards.
Any thoughts?
Has anyone received their green card recently with PD beyond 2008 in EB2-I category? I have been hearing that though the visa bulletin says Nov 2004, some folks whose cases had been assigned a visa # have received the green cards.
Any thoughts?
Some of them were getting approvals in December. There were basically applications approved in Nov, 2013 and were assigned visa numbers. It was just that the approvals took time to show up due to delays in processing. In some cases delays are large leading to late approvals (Jan).Quote:
Originally Posted by bonobo
just sharing an experience, my PD is Jan 2009 and applied for EAD renewal as I got EAD for 1 year on my last renewal (my wife got 2 year validity on 2013 renewal), approval came in for 2 years(valid till Jan 2016); looks like it's unlikely to reach Jan 2009 in 2014.
I fail to understand your point. The 2 years , 1 year, etc is a little jumbled up.Quote:
Originally Posted by JJcalifornian
Dates moving to a particular date and everyone before that date getting GC are two different things. For example, dates did move to June 2008 but not necessarily everyone before that PD got their GC. Some are still continuing on EAD even though their dates became current.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
Sorry for the confusion, all I was trying to say is; IO wouldn't be anticipating the dates will move in to Jan 2009 based on the information they have. Otherwise it would be a 1 year (till 2015) validity of EAD instead of two years. Agreed to the fact that everyone may not get the GC upon jumping the dates, but there is high probability of getting a GC. Let me say if some one with a PD Jan 2008 applies for an EAD renewal, he would be getting a 1 year valid EAD, since it's almost certain that dates will move beyond Jan 2008.
Now the 2/1 year part, we (wife&myself) applied I485 in 2012, along with EAD and approved it for 1 year validity. Upon reaching that 1 year time frame we send out application for EAD renewal, and She got it approved with a 2 year (till 2015) validity, and myself (primary) was renewed for 1 year. So now, that 1 year is getting over for my EAD and I did send out the renewal application again, this time I was expecting 1 year extension due to the fact that the dates may move in to Jan 2009, but they approved it for 2 year, that leads me to a conclusion that, it's gonna take more than a year to reach Jan 2009.
JJcalifornian,
My understanding is different . Whenever an EAD/AP application is reviewed, they look for the PD , if it is current they approve for 1 year, if it is not current, they go for 2 years.
The other theory is an assumption theory which is prevalent in the immigration forums to predict forward movements.
I think you have a very good chance to pass through. Good Luck!
Quote:
Originally Posted by sreddy
Agree with shekar. There's no reason not to get h1 renewed. It is a safety net in case something happens to the 485...not saying anything will happen but h1 is like insurance in this case.Quote:
Originally Posted by shekhar_kuruk
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Thanks Kanmani!
I wish so..
Getting back to prediction for EB2I..I understnad the next milestone people would ahve more infromation is inventory?
based on what we know now, I consider following as WORST case scerario
Supply - Spillover
EB1 - 3k
EB2 ROW- 2k
EB4- 3 k
EB5 - 0.5k
(The above includes the 8K FB extra visas)
Total supply - 8.5 +3k = 11.5k
Demand-
Porting - EB3>Eb2 -- 6k
demand before June 15,2008 - 3k
Total demand ---9k
leftover for forward movement =Supply-demand = 2.5k
This could bring the dates in sep 2014 for EB2I = AUg 15 2008
Offcourse this is worst case but not unrealistic.
Vizkid, DO you think you would get GC by Sep 2014? 99.9% sure?
I would say the above is completely unrealistic. Let me point a few cases where you are wrong:Quote:
Originally Posted by harapatta2012
1. EB gets approx 10000 from FB and not 8000 as mentioned in your post. FB utilized approximately 216k instead of 226k and hence the rest comes to EB.
http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/...ort-TableV.pdf
2. You completely disregarded the slow PERM movements. EB2ROW will yield much more than 2k to EB2I.
3. Porting demand: There is no way that 6k of porting demand remains after FY2013 visas were used up. It is simply unrealistic. It would not be more than 3k.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
Jagan,
I think he said worst case scenario.
And I said that his worst case was unrealistic and did not even consider the correct numbers. For eg. 8000 FB to EB spillover instead of the actual 10000.Quote:
Originally Posted by surya1975
I was just correcting the facts.
I think harapatta was using the earlier announced limit of 148K vs the revised one of 150K. But other than that omission his scenario is not "completely" unrealistic.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
Q, Thanks
Jagan,
1.Yes I used old figure of 8k instead of 10k.
2. I have heard about PERM demand slow..but also account for Korea and Phipl with huge numbers last year..KNow that included 15 months but still is increasing..
3. Well total porting is what I meant..Offcourse if 3k has been approved that..it has to be taken out of both Suppply and Demand..will not effect prediction...
So worst case could be slightly better Lets say by end of this fiscal...Sep end 2008 but not more..atleast based on all what you suggested,,
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
If you are saying that scenario is not completely unrealistic then it must be correct. You have much more information than most of us. I personally felt it is completely unrealistic.
The only worry I had was for people to make their future decisions on such claims. It strikes panic and people make certain wrong decisions. Anyways, we shall know in a few days, after the new Inventory numbers are out.
Jagan - Don't put too much faith in me either!!! I don't have access to any special information that is not out there publicly.
I think harapatta painted a scenario that he himself considered worst case i.e. with low probability. So I thought no harm in considering one as such. That's all.
You are right about people might misconstrue it as THE scenario!! The problem in predictions is that people like to know black and white ... and unfortunately there is no black and white in predictions. Prediction is all about probabilities and possibilities.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
Also keep in mind there's a difference between what the numbers say and date movement. Even if there's only 11.5k the dates could still move to Dec 2008 and there will be ppl who miss out this year. Happens every year.
And yes, I am 100% sure I will be current. Note I didn't say I'd get my GC coz there could be other reasons. But I'm positive I will be current.
I think I did not clear my idea of presenting the worst case.
The idea is to know if it is really worse or can it be More worse. So I want to learn from others if there is something that they consider I missed in being pessimistic that I need to include.
Offcourse all other predictions point to better outlook. But thats what others have already done with what we have.
ONe more thing, I remember this situation happened in 2012-2013.
-Once 18k FB were anounced in oct-nov 2012, I heard lot of gurus including spec to predict we could get to dec 2008 or mar 2009 by end of sep2013.
-in spring , feb-april, that prediction got significanlty bad in which gurus predicted date to end up at Nov-dec 2007.
- The dates ended up being june2008.
Well There were lot of reasons why it ahd chnaged over time,, but overall I was myself a victim there as I early on assumed dates to reach Dec 2008 and later learning this and that reason why dates would not cross 2007.
So the idea is to paint both good and more improtant bad picture for decisions.
Again don't confuse the math for actual date movement. Gurus here use the numbers to calculate a theoretical date that the numbers would support. CO can still do whatever he wants in terms of actual dates. So when the dates of mar 2008 were calculated it meant that ALL demand prior to that would be cleared. Since dates moved to June, there is some leftover (which I think you assumed to be 3K and I agree). My rule of thumb is (theoretical date+3 months) for "real date" movement.Quote:
Originally Posted by harapatta2012