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On the otherhand, it is quite possible to exceed atleast 20-30%.
The demand has to comeout in first week itself and gving only very few workings days(5-6 IMHO). Assuming that the pre-2007 adjudiciated porters numbering about 7,000 not in demand would resurafce in this time(How could sort all check/verify all and check the need to issue RFE if not in EB2? and not visible)
Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
rosharma,Quote:
Originally Posted by rosharma
I don't think it is possible, or will be, until the FY2013 Visa Statistics are released.
I haven't seen any figures for FB usage.
The only thing I think we can say is that, because the decision to make F2A Current was made so late in the FY, it decreases the chance that all FB visas will be used and increases the chances that some extra FB visas will be available to EB in FY2014.
I do notice that other FB Cut Off Dates seem to have also been advanced more quickly, which would give them the opportunity to use any visas unused by F2A.
Spillover for FB is
F2A/B --> F3 --> F4 --> F1 --> F2A/B
Last year, the problem seemed to be with F2A-Mexico usage. I wonder whether DACA may have influenced F2A-Mexico usage. i.e. a number of those applicants were actually already in the USA undocumented. It's pure speculation on my part.
eb2china,Quote:
Originally Posted by eb2china
I am a little surprised that EB2-C has stalled at 08AUG08 in the August VB.
I don't think EB2-C will receive any spillover in FY2014 because EB2-I will have earlier PD. Nonetheless, it should be able to advance around a year.
I think your PD has a very good chance in FY2015.
Bear in mind it is difficult to speculate so far ahead.
Thank for reply "Spectator" !!
wow 2015..i thought ..i might be able to file my 485 in 2014.
eb2china,Quote:
Originally Posted by eb2china
Treat it as speculation only.
The problem I see is that it might require 5k visas in FY2014 to cover a PD in June 2010 for EB2-C.
The normal allocation is 2.8k per year. It's difficult to see where an extra 2.2k would come from in FY2014, since EB2-I will use all spillover visas available.
Even the extra 18k FB visas this year only resulted in an increase to the EB2-C allocation of 360, so that is not the answer.
I believe EB2-C would also be entitled to a 7% proportion of any Fall Down from EB1, but that might only result in an extra 0.3-0.5k in FY2014.
I can't see a scenario where the extra required to cover June 2010 would be available in FY2014. Sorry.
I'm sure there are things that he knows or can speculate. He could also just move the dates ahead and let the chips fall (as erikbond suggests). Point is that fundamentally those are the variables that will determine COD and 2 are known for sure...porting is the only wildcard. Porting number of 5000 vs 7000 is a big difference. But I still can't see a scenario where it'll go to August as erikbond suggests. I dont think it'll even get to April (again unless CO is reckless).Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
I agree with your view, but there is a concern that how many of the 5000( my number) porting cases would reach the DD within first 10 days of August. In this case, he could move dates ahead as he did many times in the past.Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
If USCIS has a flexibility to give not just an approval notice, but the physical GC itself even before the PD is not current or due after 15 days, why don't they have the flexibility to add the up-graders into the DD prior to August 1?
Both the scenarios are possible.
rferni - looks like nobody answered this. The answer is yes - that is the most plausible and probably explanation.
However sometimes I have also seen very weird demand data quirks. But I would tend to think these are pretty much portings.Quote:
Originally Posted by rferni
I have updated the PERM postings in FACTS & DATA with the FY2013 Q3 Data released today.
Q3
Certified -- 6,720 -- 76.23%
Denied ----- 1,355 -- 15.37%
Withdrawn ---- 741 --- 8.40%
Total ------ 8,816
As expected the Denied number was lass than the PERM Factsheet showed.
Q1 - Q3
Certified - 27,848 -- 83.28%
Denied ----- 3,462 -- 10.25%
Withdrawn -- 2,129 --- 6.37%
Total ----- 33,439
INDIA Q3
Certified -- 4,158 -- 78.48%
Denied ------- 763 -- 14.40%
Withdrawn ---- 377 --- 7.12%
Total ------ 5,298
As expected the Denied number was lass than the PERM Factsheet showed.
INDIA Q1 - Q3
Certified - 16,510 -- 85.28%
Denied ----- 1,686 -- 8.71%
Withdrawn -- 1,164 --- 6.01%
Total ----- 19,360
Certifications for India represent 59.29% of Total Certifications.
Q,
The problem resolved itself after leaving it a few minutes, so please disregard my earlier email.
From the USCIS L2 conversations I followed in trackitt, USCIS is working on interfile cases now. if that is the case, a very high percentage of interfile cases may get converted to demand even before Sep bulletin comes out.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Hey guys, do you think immigration reform will pass this year? If yes, how much time it will take to fully implemented.
I personally doubt it'll happen this year. They have about 4 months to introduce legislation, go thru cmte, full House, then a conference and a final vote.Quote:
Originally Posted by Vkkpnm
Also I'm not quite sure what "fully implemented" means? The more important question is effective date once it has been passed.
What I meant after it gets passed, h4 spouse will have the option to start work immediately as this is one of their clause? Or as you said will it have effective date? How long the effective date can be?
Vkkpnm,
There will be a gap for sure after passing, probably step by step implementation just like Health care. The agencies will decide how long it might take to switch between current process to the new one.
In august all interfile cases will immediately be part of the demand as they would have to request visa for these cases, so even if they aren't approved right away they sure will be part in the DD for septemberQuote:
Originally Posted by MATT2012
I also think that many inter filers can get approved before the original EB2 cases.
any significant movement in September ( perhaps upto 6 months as some are predicting ) will likely result in few 2007 or earlier cases left over
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Thank you for the compilation. Upward trend in IND certification could lead to longer wait times in coming years, assuming no relief through reforms in near future!
IND certifications were 41% and 52% of total certifications in FY2010 & FY2011 respectively.
if porting hits the lower range of expectations, together with the EB2ROW drops we are noticing in trackitt could help EB2I make a bigger jump. Another area where visa numbers are blocked is in EB2C's additional share of SO visas. if EB2C stalls where it is today even in next bulletin, EB2I will receive some more visas. That would possibly indicate, how spillovers are divided between retrogressed countries when cut off dates are different. My numbers have blocked EB2C with its share of additional SO, if I am not wrong Specs calculation also blocks it. Next bulletin may possibly be the first opportunity to understand DoS interpretation of SO rules in that regard.Quote:
Originally Posted by indiani
There is a 3K difference(4K Vs. 7K) in porting assumptions+ 1-1.4 K blocking for EB2C is equivalent to support a 3+ months difference in calculation.
Spec: Thanks for updating the PERM data, it definitely helps in our early calculations for next fiscal.
Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
I have updated the PERM postings in FACTS & DATA with the FY2013 Q3 Data released today.
Spec- With the PERM Posting data do you see any change in predictions. Based on Guru's(Matt, Spec,Q etc) earlier Prediction I see Mar 1, 2008 is realistic date in Sept Bulletin.
Do you want give us your thoughts.
This PERM data won't affect the Sep VB. it will help FY14 calculations though.Quote:
Originally Posted by coolvibe
indiani,Quote:
Originally Posted by indiani
I'm not sure that is quite correct. The visa request is the very last action before approval i.e. the case is being adjudicated.
Come August 1, if a visa is requested for any case with a PD before Jan 1, 2009, then the PD will be Current, that visa will be immediately available and the case will be approved.
A number only remains in the Demand Data when the visa request is made and the visa is not immediately available.
If the case was not in the DD previously, it will never show in the DD if it is adjudicated when the PD is Current.
Clearly, if the case does not get adjudicated a visa request won't be made and the case won't appear in the DD either.
Only when the dates retrogress again will we see the cases left behind. Past history suggests they will trickle in over the course of several months.
It might be possible to see what the difference is between calculated approvals and the drop in the DD over the appropriate time period. The difference might be thought of as mainly porting cases that were not in the DD previously. Given there are also other factors, I'm not totally sold on that approach either. When the Visa Statistics are published for FY2013, a better estimate might be possible.
It won't be on the Sept demand data but it will be in the Oct one. I would assume that going forward "unknown demand" from porting will decline.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I think you might be correct that the inter filing cases may not be included in DD but CO definitely should have some ( rather good) idea about how many of these cases are there , so I hope CO will actually keep it in consideration before planning COD for the last month of fiscal year.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I am hoping that they might be able to approve most of the cases in the first week before DD is released , even though that means more than 1000 a day, I just don't know how exactly the Pre-adjudicated cases are dealt with and how long they take to look at the file before approving , I hope you were in charge spec ( instead of CO) as its not that complicated to guess the exact movements if we have every data that's available to CO.
almost everyone knows some 2007 or earlier cases might be left out in this frenzy but what percentage and who will be effected can only be seen after sept.
vizcard,Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
I agree that unknown demand that can affect the FY approvals will decline.
This year was unprecedented in that there was a 15 month period of retrogression before the dates became Current. Ongoing, that should be in the 6-9 month range, depending on when retrogression starts in FY2014.
Also, eventually, but painfully slowly, the EB3-I dates will advance. That will shrink the number of years where porting applicants can already have a pending I-485 under EB3. More applicants will be filing I-485 for the first time and, if date movement is late in the year, stand much less chance of being approved in the same FY.
I'm not sure when the Demand will start to show. For any DD, the date the figures are compiled is about 3 weeks in advance of the VB month. Even if the dates retrogressed in October 2013, IMO the first DD that would reflect it fully might be the December DD which would have figures as at about November 7th i.e. about 3 weeks after retrogression has started. The November DD might show some effect (1 week), depending on how quickly the cases are being adjudicated. If visas run out before the end of September and retrogression starts in October, the number might be greater in the November DD.
The October DD will have numbers compiled on about September 7th.
I do realize there are differing opinions on what the DD represents.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
agreed.. i should have said "Oct onwards demand data".
"IVCRD has no information on applicants with approved I-140Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Immigrant Worker petitions (nor for that matter, applicants having approved I-130 Alien
Relative petitions) where AOS is selected, but the AOS was not filed despite a prior filing
eligibility window, or the applicant was never eligible for AOS filing, and the I-485 cannot now
be filed due to priority date backlogs."
above from AILA presentation: I interpreted the above as - only cases where 485 is never filed wont be there in DD, for inter filings the 140 is attached to previously applied 485, the cases will be part of DD when the 485 is accepted IMO, visa number is requested after pre-adj when its current
if inter filers are already in DD then we should see a big jump in next bulletin perhaps 4 or more months but I am not quite confident about the above interpretation.
Quote:
Originally Posted by indiani
Your interpretation of the words is right but the conclusion is somewhat wrong. Every case with a pre-adjudicated 485 but without a visa number will be in demand data. So EB3 will bein EB3 demand data and EB2 will be in EB2 demand data. What it does not say is that they have visibility to number of cases switching from EB3 to EB2.
In other words, CO knows total backlog and split by original category but no (or at best limited) visibility to those that change categories.
PS: by the words, CO has visibility to all 485 backlog not just pre-adjudicated cases
Guys (Q/Spec/Veni/Matt/Indiani/Vizcard/Kanmani/Others) - quick question reg. my I-485 approval process ..
PD 15NOV2007, getting current from Aug 1st. The status is still in "Initial Review" but i remember long time ago (during Mar/Apr 2012), i called USCIS and the L2 officer told that my case was Preadjudicated (donno whether its true or not)
Please let me know whether i need to do anything from my side, I am very nervous when the dates getting closer and closer ... Somewhere in Trackitt, i read that the cases who got RFE has a high chance of getting GC this time ... Do i have to pray to get an RFE now?
I really donno what to do ... Dont want to miss this time ... Appreciate your response ...
snrusa,Quote:
Originally Posted by snrusa
The whole batch of NSC filers didn't get the RFE too. Don't Worry. You will be greened very soon.
Wait and Watch trackitt for approvals with PD/service center closer to that of yours for a week, then start calling L-2 and later take Congressman route.
its not just you, most of them are in response review or initial review( mine), bottom line they are "reviewing" , when I called L2 she said your case is "under review" when I asked the same question .Quote:
Originally Posted by snrusa
not everyone got RFE, perhaps the computer randomly picked or some other reason, your chance is better than someone who got RFE as you don't have to worry whether the evidence will be convincing or not.
I think CO should know all the inter filers and would have kept that number in consideration before moving the dates but I think someone who never applied 485 yet( either in Eb2 or EB3) will not be considered to calculate COD as it will be very very difficult for them to get GC this fiscal yearQuote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
indiani,Quote:
Originally Posted by indiani
It would be nice to think he did have that information, but I do not think CO has it for cases that completed after retrogression.
CO has said on multiple occasions that he does not have visibility on "upgrades" until they are approved (or at least when a visa is requested under EB2).
Only USCIS might be able to supply that information.
CO has also stated repeatedly that USCIS can not provide him with the required information because USCIS have told him that they do not keep track of "upgrades" either.
If he indeed CO does have quite accurate figures already, then I would not expect to see much movement of the COD for September. The level of "upgrades" is the figure that has the greatest uncertainty IMO and it is the uncertainty that is the biggest driver for further forward movement beyond what a better calculation of available spillover can allow.
Well "should" is the operative word here. In a perfect world, ofcourse he should have access to the entire pipeline real time. There should be absolutely no reason to make wild movements if it is based on real pipeline information. i mentioned this previously that the movement would first to be a point where he FELT that he would surely be able to cover the known demand and porting. Any future movement would be based on any additional spillover (which at this point is absolutely known).Quote:
Originally Posted by indiani
Someone who never filed a 485 ofcourse wouldn't be in demand data because he/she was never adjudicated. By definition he/she wouldn't be in any demand (regardless of category).
Even for the TSC folks who received the mass RFE, I take it their RFE responses should been already reviewed by now as its been more than a month now since most of the folks responded to it. I hope these cases should now be sitting in the pack of pre-adj. cases waiting for a push of the "approval" button starting Aug 1st..
Quote:
Originally Posted by indiani
I think better description is that CO might have a fairly good idea of potential inter filers even though he doesn't have exact figure provided to him, assuming he can make guess based on his experience or some other data ( just like some of you are able to guess), which is sad as its quite easy to keep a track and get the data if they think its that important and if they want to change the internal process.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I might be a bit biased to think that CO might know the number approx. ( rounding to thousands) but logically thinking also he is the best person to guess to closest number in his department.
august 1st week will be quite interesting as the dynamics of this year are unprecedented.
I think I will put this issue to rest as I am not able to provide any meaningful/ useful info about this issue and I appreciate all your posts about porters and interfilers
I wish there is a push button ( but I highly doubt it works that way ),it always baffles me why they made this process so complicated to give a GC to lawful, skilled residents ( sorry, couldn't stop ranting about this). But based on what I heard from others in the forum ( may be spec can comment on this) is that they will look at all the documents or other evidence for final time before approving, that's why they cant approve all pre-adj in one day.Quote:
Originally Posted by longwait100
My wildest dream is that on august 1st there will be a mass approval like the RFE's that were sent :)
Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
Very Well Said ! (Viz and Spec)Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
The above information is not written on assumption, they were told by the concerned authorities over the years.
kanmani ,Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
the point I was trying to make is that CO wont have the data in exact figures but he will be in a situation to guess what approx. number of filers could be there , anyway aug 1st week most of the info will be available
Indiani, that post was a common post to all, just to make sure the message is noted.Quote:
Originally Posted by indiani
You may remember one of my earlier post, I tried to explain the entire process in a diluted version. I don't know if it was a success or failure attempt.
Again coming to the subject, CO is just like any one of us in this matter. His guess could be the same as our guess. He has seen the entire 2013 was held by up-graders so far, that is why he expects more hidden demand.
DoS and DHS are two different ministries( just like India) not co-operating each other.
The main reason for this is, the applications are dealt by thousands of Adjudicators, not grouped under one chief of the ministry to report to the other ministry's chief.
Kanmani - you put it very well. Broadly speaking i agree except that - CO is much better positioned than us and the process of green card allocation - while does follow rules - also is bent jointly by DoS and DHS and DoL (don't forget the third ministery) to meet certain political objectives.
So othre than that minor difference of opinion - I think this was a great post by you. I wish the forum software had someway to recognize great posts in golden border or something so that readers could get attracted to those posts and not have to read entire thread.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
indiani,Quote:
Originally Posted by indiani
There's no doubt this is a subject of much frustration.
Here's my thoughts on what we might deduce and CO might know to base an estimate on. CO might also have extra information unknown to us.
Since the EB2-I COD has not moved, we can probably deduce that in the 10 months to August 1, EB2-I should have used about ((9 * 9%) + (1/3 * 19%)) * 3,163 = 2,762 visas, if EB2-I has just received the minimum allowed by 7% of the 45,188 EB2 allocation. I see no reason why EB2-I would have received less than that amount.
It's therefore fair to assume that the 01SEP04 COD was capable of consuming 3k for the full year.
Porting numbers for that COD represent no more than 2 years (EB3-I ended FY2012 at 08OCT02).
Roughly that is a rate of 1.5k / FY / PD CY.
September 2004 through July 2007 represents the time period when someone upgrading from EB3 to EB2 might already have an I-485 on file and pre-adjudicated. That is roughly a 3 year period. Cases any later than that will have to file an I-485 for the first time, with little to no chance of being approved this FY.
That gives a realistic upper limit of a further 1.5 * 3 = 4.5k porting cases that might become current from August 1 - September 30, 2013. No doubt some of those are older than the beginning of retrogression and are counted in the DD already. I wouldn't like to put a figure on that number. That of course assumes the rate of upgrades beyond August 2004 is similar. That may, of course, not be a fair assumption. It's not difficult to think of reasons why it could be either higher or lower in later years.
Do we know any more than that?
Either way, I think we are talking about a few thousand cases that are not currently in the DD that could be approved this FY.