Wow! Can really sense panic in the air, now. Hope it goes through and thus opening up the doors for future immigration changes. This is the key bill which will compel ROW to take notice and join in the fight instead of being on the sidelines eating pop corn while the backlogged folks despair.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly
When will we know the answer ?
With the new CR being passed, I believe they will have until Dec 18 to hammer the deal out.Quote:
Originally Posted by EB22010Dec
I know this is a controversial source (US Tech Workers) but they seem to have more intel than others at this point:
https://twitter.com/USTechWorkers/st...90185879736320
Sources are telling us that Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT) is trying to work with Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-CA 19th District) to insert HR1044 into an Omnibus Bill.
This is Mike Lee's DC Office number: 202-224-5444
Let his office know how you feel about this.
Siskind pushing back on Ckuck's calculations predicting doom and gloom.
https://twitter.com/gsiskind/status/1336809830225485825
You know as well as anyone that there is no real way to know the number so this is a total guess. You ought to show the math including how the suddenly available rolled over green card numbers are factored in.
5:07 PM · Dec 9, 2020·Twitter for iPhone
For example, lots of people have multiple I-140 approvals. And many people abandon their place in line. How are these factored in?
Fresh update from Siskind: Chinese exclusion has become a sticking point stalling the inclusion of HR1044 in the Omnibus bill.
https://twitter.com/gsiskind/status/1339261537035358208
As predicted, the China provision is the main sticking point preventing possible inclusion of 1044/386 per country caps language in the omnibus bill. Several dozen advocacy organizations, including a number of Asian American groups, have come out opposing that language.
FYI, it looks like the goose is cooked as far as including 1044 is concerned.
https://twitter.com/gsiskind/status/1339312380518522882
Hearing 1044/386 isn't going to be in the omnibus because Scott refused to budge. Seems like it's over until next year. The good news is Biden has ending country caps in his immigration plan (along with early adjustment and expanding green card numbers for everyone).
Is there any other advocacy group working on country caps? If so - do contact me. I think I can help you with strategy?
Some of the current advocacy efforts come across as naive and are bound to create friction with other groups.
Those of you who followed the events of the day today, you could see opposition weaving clever narrative and coalition against this bill.
I think we can prevail over them ... so if there is another group - happy to help you out guys. This can be done without antagonizing ROW countries.
They will definitely need your strategy in 2021 because the Covid-19 relief bill did not have the H.R 1044 in it, so we are back to square 1.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I think this is very doable but somehow desi folks easily get swayed by propaganda, show too much aggression, or too much fear in dealing with different stakeholders. Happy to help any group that is working on the ground.Quote:
Originally Posted by HarepathekaIntezar
We know there is a chance that congress will be back next week to override Trump's veto of defense authorization. Also not sure what is going to happen with funding bill + covid relief bill. Since IV has not made any statement, do you all think they might still be trying to push this bill one more time if there is window of opportunity next week?Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Here is a great example of how Unanimous Consent can be used as a political tool.Quote:
Originally Posted by alpha0
Pelosi on thursday is going to ask for UC for raising covid help to 2000 per person - something she always wanted but couldn't get from GOP. Trump as crazy as it gets has asked for the same after his own people negotiated the deal HE wanted.
So what does Pelosi do now? Read carefully how to read the tealeaves of American politics!!
Pelosi knows she has a chance of snowball in hell to get that 2000 from GOP. But she also wants to demonstrate to American people that she does want to give 2000 USD to families. But while doing so she does not want to throw away the existing deal that was made after painstaking efforts. After all her constituency more than GOP constituency needs whatever money comes their way.
So what does she do without risking existing deal?
She asks for Unanimous Consent over $2000 covid relief. She already has the votes in house and could have asked for a vote and passed in house. But no - she asks for UC knowing it will fail and then she has not created busy work for GOP senators who would have struck down such house bill anyway!! And thus with UC defeated, the house and senate will override Trumps COVID veto (if he vetoes - which imho he won't).
My friends that's how things work. IV are fools and have been taken for a ride over UC for S386. GOP used IV to blame Sen. Durbin and then finally passed amended HR1044 that has zero chance of passing house with 14 days remaining. They need to wake up and reconcile with this reality.
While I haven't set foot in congress or wherever - I think I know this stuff better than IV for sure. Forget IV. I do think country caps can be removed very quickly now that in principle both houses agree; one just needs to wade through procedures and torpedoes and minefields of X number of legislations their priorities and not get sucked into stupid mistakes such as UC. I am very confident this is possible and in sight.
I understand.
I hope next year bill is simplified like removing country caps from say 50% of total EB numbers. Not sure whether such a bill will go to senate stand alone or say merged with some DACA provisions, but in any case will go thru regular process of committee and floor votes in senate. That will eliminate dozens of carveouts and poisons pills which were added by individual senators sometimes just with the sole purpose to kill the bill.
I dont think Biden has any plans to push for CIR next year when unemployment rates are still in 7-8% range.
You are correct that it needs to be a reasonably stand alone bill. I think it is possible when there is that much intensity around the topic and interests are aligned.Quote:
Originally Posted by alpha0
So the trick is to align interests.
Biden has ton of things to undo from Trump era before he does CIR. But the rate of unemployment is not necessarily at cross with immigration. Rather immigration helps reduce unemployment when used properly as an economic policy tool.
See what I was saying earlier today?
GOP killed the house bid for Trump's ASK of 2000 USD COVID relief.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/24/politics/house-vote-stimulus-checks-government/index.html
Thus one uses UC either to pass mundane stuff OR to strategically kill a bill.
GOP used UC on S386 as a way to blame Sen Durbin.
So true; the minute the chances of getting Amended HR1044 passed slipped away; so many started blaming Lofgren left and right (see twitter). Same happened earlier with Durbin and Scott as well. I am not sure what could be achieved by humiliating someone like that; thin line between right to question and abusing someone. We all Desis would need to understand this if they want the new admin to pass a CIR then it would only happen by not harming the public image of those who hold the power to pass or not pass the bill.
hobnobing with American right by Indian right wing is counter productive to EB-I backlogged folks because American right wing is utterly anti-immigrant and a lot of times outright racist. But fanatics have deep entrenched views and don't understand don't careQuote:
Originally Posted by Noesis
Lofgren is the very first politician who spoke against country caps. Ever. And I mean it. She cared when nobody else did.
We should blame this on the old admin and wait for the next visa bulletin. But don't worry, even if visas are wasted this year, the new admin has plans to recapture all the lost visas at a future date! In fact, even that won't be necessary. They are working on big things for us. Didn't you see that new shiny immigration bill? As people are saying...the country quotas will be gone in 2 years and there will be no backlog in 5 years from now. Do you know what all this is called? It's Fugazi.;)Quote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
What was the alternative my friend!? We are atleast in this situation wherein we are talking about many positive immi. news overall....I see that as a blessing as such. I personally never thought I would get my EAD in 2021 and here I am....if we came this far there is no reason to lose hope now! Yes I try my best to not see the glass half empty no matter what :)Quote:
Originally Posted by vedu
Indeed! Biden showed his commitment on day 1. We shouldn't underestimate nor overestimate. It's a big thing that first time ever a US president says country caps need to go. It will be uphill battle but I think it will be done within 2 years. Backlogs as we know it will go away in five years after country caps will be gone. After that all countries will be more or less on the same footing within each category. But it neither is going to happen automatically nor immediately.Quote:
Originally Posted by Zenzone
All these GOP minded backlogged folks who had pinned their hopes on Trump and GOP, I challenge you to go and build support among GOP for country caps removal.
The admin to be blamed is the one from 2009. The one in 2017 was an extension of the same little more uglier. I had put another post earlier today, if they are really serious about this, H1 should be treated as immigration visa, after 3 years automatic 140 based on last 2-3 years tax return GC on the date of completion of 6th year of H1 and Citizen application eligibility 2 years from then. 8 years pathway to citizenship for H1, L1, OPT if they are really serious about it.Quote:
Originally Posted by vedu
Otherwise we can continue to attribute blame to the previous administrations, which is the easiest thing to do. Blame the past, ignore the present, destroy the future
Q, you see the problem. While you have been consistent on immigrant needs have you ever tried to understand the majority base beyond the impression of them as basket cases.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
When you present it as challenge, they are sure to take it as a challenge and will solidly run it to the ground. Just like you have opportunists like Obama in 2007 in Democratic Party, there are enough in Republican side too.
Attempt to get consensus instead of trying to rub it in. I can guarantee that that second method is a sure shot way to failure.
AceMan,
Yes, I read that post and it does make sense to me. And I wasn't picking on you. I just used your post to express my feelings.
In this D's vs R's battle and the resultant status quo, any bad news is actually good news and any good news is actually bad. I said this before also. One doesn't have to be genius to figure that out. Zenzone got his chance at EAD, because the bad news of family visa ban due to COVID was actually a good news for him. And I am not even being insensitive about it. I personally lost my dear ones in this pandemic. But this is the TRUTH!
When BO was around and the CIR bill came to Senate in 2013, it was Grassley who put the hold on it. In every way of any immi. proposal its the GOP that gets in the way. They are experts at shifting blame and pitting one group of immigrants against others.Quote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
Grassley is an octogenarian senior ranking senator well respected on both sides and he blocked it due to some valid concerns. When you try to brand him as opportunistic, I can only say that you are very wrong here. Cruz was an opportunist, Trump was another one was had the free support of all these CNN, NBC. They were celebrating his name calling. The only person who questioned Trump directly was Megyn Kelly from Fox. These news sites wanted to deliver a show instead of reality, you got that for 4 years.Quote:
Originally Posted by Zenzone
Do not blame GOP for that. Think of Kevin Yoder who supported the immigration needs of legals as his main task was run down not only democrats but his own party voters
The challenge is to our own people who danced with GOP and attended the rally in houston in the hope that Trump is our guy. I never for once thought so. I have seen this game for far too long. EVERY time there was any talk of any immigration reform, some crazy guy within GOP would always botch it.Quote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
We don't need to capitulate, appease GOP nor rub it in. We need to come across polite, confident and firm in our position that country caps are unjust. GOP must understand that Texas is already a majority minority state. So their anti-immigrant stance is no loner sustainable.
In any case appeasement of racist folks is never going to be the answer.
Before there was hawley and ted cruz and jeff sessions and michelle bachman and sarah palin there was chuck grassley. The guy is pretty much founder of modern anti immigrant sentiment.Quote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
Polite, and the model of politeness should be AOC/Omar/Tayeb right? And when you point out their repulsive behavior, you get called anti woman/ anti minority/ anti latino/ anti religious and what not. The very point that you think of negotiation as capitulate/appeasement shows the concern.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Trump was never the GOP, he was propelled to top with the support of the sound bites by CNN/NBC and other left media who wanted to rub the GOP down. He is gone already.
Do not blame GOP when Dems push unworkable deals to the bill.
Grassley voted for Reagans 1986 immigration. He changed his stance after seeing the failed promises after that. It is very clearly documented with his actions. And for the ladies you listed above, Dems have equal and counter weight in AOC/Omar/Tayeb.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Did you ignore the fact, these people voted against HR 1044 in the house?
Ace don't fall for Trump language of calling women "Nasty" when they are strong. AOC / Omar / Tayeb are strong women. I 100% approve of the way they conduct themselves. But anyway we were talking about "us" demanding things from GOP politely but firmly. As our right not as some doleout.Quote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
I agree about Trump not being a republican ever. I hope GOP goes back to its conservative libertarian roots.
Why was Sarah Palin/ Michelle Backmann not given the same respect? I am not talking Trump's language, I am talking the points made by level headed Republican supporters. The media's intent to show them as some dumb bimbo's is what I am talking about.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Nikky Haley is a strong woman from my view. Firm and stood for what I believe is right. Mike Pence stood for the constitution. GOP is like an amalgamation of Libertarian, conservatives, southern Bapists, and lot of Indian origin people lately. So branding them as Neo-Nazi's, clan followers, red necks is not really an attempt to make a peaceful gesture.
And the attempt of Pelosi to impeach Trump when he is already left the scene is just deplorable.
Ace - I think you need to think all these things over.
Backman and Palin were not known for any positions or solutions. That's just the hard truth. They started the crazy tilt of GOP. Nikki Haley is certainly a very capable intelligent woman. I don't quite approve of how she said the elections were stolen. That was pathetic but I guess everyone deserves one pass in life. So that's her. As per Pelosi - she wouldn't be doing her duty if she didn't impeach trump. What he committed is a crime against state and he should not just be impeached and convicted but jailed for the same. Anyway - I think this is getting unnecessarily too political.
I would just say - give biden some time and do your part in participating wherever advocacy is being done in a sensible manner. Or do it in your own capacity. EB-I folks will prevail and country caps will be gone in 2 years.
Quote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
I am confident that Biden would be able to normalize some resentment that has been around for the entire 2010s. Going back in history, Bill Clinton also had lot of difficulty with Newt Gingrich during mid 90s. As far as Pelosi is concerned on the topic, people just walked into the capitol and the exaggerated points like capitol under siege is not a selling point.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
As far as advocacy and donations are concerned, let the young boys from 2010?s drive it. They appear more efficient than 2000?s like us. I wanted the GC quota itself to be taken out, like what Durbin wanted instead of just the country quota removal. If there is a pathway for citizenship in 8 years for DACA, the same pathway should be offered for an H1/L1/OPT student too. GC in 5th or 6th year of being in the country with citizenship option in 2 or 3 years.
Bill Gates has similar solution and I totally agree. Companies should not look at H1 as cheap labor - if they want H1 then they should be able to hire without quota but then commit to GC in a timebound manner. Surprisingly that will protect American workers in a much better manner than current system.Quote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
How are American workers protected? Dont forget that supprot DJT got was because of frustration of middle class who is not able to maintain their lifestyle compared to their parents. Technology is replacing most if not all middle class jobs and companies are outsourcing those to consulting firms who bring in unrestricted foreign cheap labor. Let's agree that for each Pichai and Nadela, 500 Amirpeth trained H1bs have entered USA and now their Bcom/BSc/MLT h4-ead spouses are running into IT jobs after few weeks of online coaching and few years of fake resume while american John/Janes in 50s are losing jobs and collecting unemployment.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
In my last 10-12 years, i have seen so many americans losing jobs in my company, most of thsoe mainframe programmers or business users could have been easily trained into new technology / ERP roles if govt forced IT companies to do that. Instead for sale DC politicians allowed staffing companeis to bring in young cheal labor without any restrictions. And i dont see any change or any effort to fix that in Biden plan.
And i dont want to even start the menace of fake resumes on the basis of which these desis got the jobs. If people need to go to jail for faking resumes for college admissions, they need to empty entire prison system to make space for these fake resumes professionals. And to be honest, i have never seen any effort by government to protect americans impacted by this scam.
Just to add - i am not against any immigration reform. I want people waiting for years in gc queue to get gc asap, i also want 11 Million undocumented to get some sort of legalization.
I just dont see any effort to protect Americans in future. How will Biden ensure new undocumented immigrants wont flood the borders? How will he ensure that they were in USA before 1 Jan 2021? Some of republicans are asking right questions on that.
Same with people who say free flow of product goes hand in hand with free flow of labor. When Apple goes to India for manufacturing, indian govt forces them to source 75% of material locally. China forces american companies not to do business directly but enter into joint venture with chinese companies where chinese firms have majority stake. Why can't US govt force IT staffing/consulitng companies to hire 50% of staff locally? Anybody who says that will impact american competitiveness is doing so because their income depends on cheap labor, that is it.
My fear is if these issues are not resolved, some point in time, someone like DJT will be able to divert the frustration and anger of American middle class/lower middle class whose american dreams have vanished against a particular section of society.
This is a complex topic, but the answer actually is very simple. The same people who are frustrated that companies do not retrain them are for unchecked capitalism and libertarianism. Well when you want the good of unchecked capitalism you have to bear the bad that comes with it. There has to be a balance between capitalism and social welfare policies. Anything unchecked will only serve as a wrecking ball to the society as a whole.Quote:
Originally Posted by alpha0
Alpha - I must say every single point you raise is very important and legitimate. I don't really have answers to these complex problems. My 2 cents are that American system needs to increase emphasis on eqaulity and legislation, regulations and tax policy needs to reflect that. Doing away with estate taxes or dividend taxes, removing glass steagall have done more lasting damage to American middle class than a few hundred thousand H1 and EAD jobs. H1 and EAD are a distraction. The real problem is that America needs to go back to its roots of what really made it great viz. all the reforms that Teddy and FD Roosevelt instituted that built a solid middle class.Quote:
Originally Posted by alpha0
I agree taxing income from wealth same as income from work may help some of the wealth gap created in last few decades (for example wealth of bottom 90% reduced from 40% to 30% in last 30 years where as top 1% got most of that increase). But bottom 90% never had enough wealth to sustain their lifestyles even before Reagan years.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Issue is shrinking of middle class jobs in USA. First they moved almost all manufactuing jobs to China. Then last two decades saw service jobs (mainly back office) getting offshored to cheap locations. And then technology is eliminating many repetitive sort of jobs. Even in technology, onsite/offshore ratios of 90/10 have become 10/90 in last 20 years. And on top of that h1b+h4+l1 are taking most of these remaining onsite jobs.
With all that, couple of millions of ICT jobs going to h1bs+h4+l1 do create a major impact for American middle class. I agree many of us got benefited from this treand but i strongly feel that average americans hardly got any benefit from this pseudo capitalism. Only top 1% benefited from that alonigwith few millions of desis (and immigrants from other countries) who got into first world lifestyle at the cost of american middle class.
Here is the main issue. As much as we would like to believe that H1 + H4 + L1 folks brought the American native workforce to it's knees, the truth is far from it. EB based GC's are 14% of the total GCs given out in a year. So thinking that minority of immigrants getting GC's each year are eating into the thriving middle class is incredulous. There is a lot of automation going on even in the tech sector. Those who have been in the workforce long enough know first hand how any specialized jobs in Tech sector got eliminated. I know for a fact that I will need to reinvent myself and will not have a viable tech sector job in 10-15 years because of the automation, and this automation will affect both the H1B's + H4s + L1s equally as it effects the native citizens of this country. A big part of the reason America made it to the top was because of it's focus on leading the world in innovation and thus creating millions of jobs as a result. Providing cost effective service to other countries innovative products was never it's MO. I truly believe in my heart that the pendulum will swing the other way from this crony capitalism model in the near future.Quote:
Originally Posted by alpha0