EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

I haven't predicted any PD movements so far! But I'm confident that EB2-I/C will move to June/22/2008 or July/01/2008 in January 2012's visa bulletin. Reason??: Vick's post on ** back in June 2011 regarding NVC fee notice his lawyer received in May 2011. His PD is June 12th 2008. This is a clear indication of the forward movement in January 2012's visa bulletin. Yes, yes....I know the fee receipt doesn't expire...If this prediction goes wrong, I'll never ever try to predict again :)

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Originally Posted by Tomtuat

I haven't predicted any PD movements so far! But I'm confident that EB2-I/C will move to June/22/2008 or July/01/2008 in January 2012's visa bulletin. Reason??: Vick's post on ** back in June 2011 regarding NVC fee notice his lawyer received in May 2011. His PD is June 12th 2008. This is a clear indication of the forward movement in January 2012's visa bulletin. Yes, yes....I know the fee receipt doesn't expire...If this prediction goes wrong, I'll never ever try to predict again :)

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With NVC receipts rule of thumb is 12 months. so if he got his NVC fee notice in May 2011 that means his PD should be current by May 2012...not necessarily in the Jan VB. That being said, the general consensus is June 30,2008 by Mar and then retrogression. Could CO do another 3 month move? sure... but that would be mildly surprising to me.

FYI - we know of a 9/11/2008 PD fee notice (identified in Nov).

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Originally Posted by soggadu

guys... this is a question regarding post 485, the other thread is not so much visible so i want to post it here too...mods please feel free to remove...

1. What happens after FP?
2. How many days does FBI name check and FP check take?
3. Once the above checks are done, am i preadjucated waiting for Visa number?

All the very best for all in the line and i pray your number come sooner than any one can predict....

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Yes, I think after fingerprinting and name check is completed, one's application is ready for approval, assuming visa numbers are available and all other documents (birth certificate, medical tests, etc) are in place. In the past few years, we have seen lots of EVL related RFEs but those were primarily because of the long gap between I485 submission and approval when the individual has switched jobs using AC21. I doubt we will see any similar RFEs from now onwards as the I485 applications will be relatively fresh when it is ready for approval. I think we all have seen multiple theories floating around on how USCIS approves applications if PDs are current based on Notice Date, Receipt date, etc but I am not sure whether at all there is a given pattern for the same.

folks, First of all thanks to you all for wonderful information. Since June, i have been reading all threads everyday morning.
Last bulletin, I went current, Everything is done. Dec 1st My lawyer submitted all the documents for EAD, AP and i485... Dec 6th today, I have got the text message about my application has been received. Like some of you, My employer has been kind a exploiting, goofy, and making my life hell since last few years.. Fingers crossed and hoping that everything goes well.

Wish you all good luck who are waiting and also for those who are current.

P.S. if this is not a right post, sorry, first time i am posting here.

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Originally Posted by soggadu

guys... this is a question regarding post 485, the other thread is not so much visible so i want to post it here too...mods please feel free to remove...

1. What happens after FP?
2. How many days does FBI name check and FP check take?
3. Once the above checks are done, am i preadjucated waiting for Visa number?

All the very best for all in the line and i pray your number come sooner than any one can predict....

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My Lawyer just sent docs to USCIS. According to her :

1. -> After FP, Name Check & other security checks in place.
2. -> FBI Name Check and FP will take 30 to 90 days.
3. -> Once all completed you will receive EAD and have to wait for VISA Number.

Hi
How did you setup to get a text message when your application is received. Is this the message you got from the FedEx/courier delivery confirmation? or from USCIS?

Thanks

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Originally Posted by Dec13th2007

folks, First of all thanks to you all for wonderful information. Since June, i have been reading all threads everyday morning.
Last bulletin, I went current, Everything is done. Dec 1st My lawyer submitted all the documents for EAD, AP and i485... Dec 6th today, I have got the text message about my application has been received. Like some of you, My employer has been kind a exploiting, goofy, and making my life hell since last few years.. Fingers crossed and hoping that everything goes well.

Wish you all good luck who are waiting and also for those who are current.

P.S. if this is not a right post, sorry, first time i am posting here.

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Originally Posted by romanitaly

Hi
How did you setup to get a text message when your application is received. Is this the message you got from the FedEx/courier delivery confirmation? or from USCIS?

Thanks

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G1145 probably. I missed it too.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...e-at-lockboxes

My lawyer said similar.

Would like to clarify though getting EAD/AP does not mean 485 is preadjudicated also.

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Originally Posted by indiasunil

My Lawyer just sent docs to USCIS. According to her :

1. -> After FP, Name Check & other security checks in place.
2. -> FBI Name Check and FP will take 30 to 90 days.
3. -> Once all completed you will receive EAD and have to wait for VISA Number.

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Team

We made one donation $75. And we will make one more in next couple of days.
Please suggest any charities for next month in the donations thread
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...e&goto=newpost

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

My lawyer said similar.

Would like to clarify though getting EAD/AP does not mean 485 is preadjudicated also.

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Nishant, Are you asking for clarification or clarifying this for other's benefit? At any point, do we ever know whether our case is pre-adjudicated or do we have to wait till the visa number is available and 485 is officially approved to get a sigh of relief?

you can simply ask your lawyer to provide the tracking number as they always send such important documents via registered mail.

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Originally Posted by Reader

Nishant, Are you asking for clarification or clarifying this for other's benefit? At any point, do we ever know whether our case is pre-adjudicated or do we have to wait till the visa number is available and 485 is officially approved to get a sigh of relief?

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From Sunil's post, one may infer potentially that if you got EAD/AP card, you are all set and just waiting for visa number. Hence I was clarifying that we should not think like that, I am sure Sunil or his lawyer didn't mean that either. We may know about pre-adjudication, if you case has fallen out of the processing times of the service center it is at, and you can take an infopass appointment, to ask about the status. This is what I have inferred from posts by people, I have not asked lawyer about it, as I don't want to bother him unnecessarily for hypothetical scenarios.

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Originally Posted by indiasunil

My Lawyer just sent docs to USCIS. According to her :

1. -> After FP, Name Check & other security checks in place.
2. -> FBI Name Check and FP will take 30 to 90 days.
3. -> Once all completed you will receive EAD and have to wait for VISA Number.

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I have the same understanding until I read couple of posts in Nov EB2I filers thread in trackitt yesterday.

Yesterday I saw two posts from NSC applicants in that thread. They said they received email confirmations for I765 (EAD) approval. One person got approval even before finger printing, the other person got approval two days after the finger printing is done.

Do all these 485 related posts need to be moved to the 485 thread ?

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Originally Posted by vizcard

Do all these 485 related posts need to be moved to the 485 thread ?

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Are we close to get Demand data and Visa Bulletin. Really hoping for at least 2 months movement.

Did anyone heard about NVC notice after Sep 2008 for EB2I?

Hello All,

I am a new member, so please forgive if posting in wrong thread. Please move it to appropriate location if needed.

I was hoping I could get some advise about my situation.
I am in my 6th year H1B with no PERM on file. Unfortunately, my company is shuttering so no approved I-140 for me. Other companies not willing to hire because H1B cannot be extended any further.

My options are:
1) Go out of the country for 1 year so that fresh H1B can be filed after I get back as wife's dependant on H4.
2) Go onto my wife's H4 and wait for my wife's PD(April 2009) to get current.

I do not want to sit idle for too long, so I am trying to get an estimate as to when my wife will get current. If it is going to be more than a year, I might as well go out of the country for a year. Separation from Spouse is hard, but sitting idle will be even harder :(. I already have a job offer from outside the US (with no Visa issues for that country).

Any thoughts/estimates from you are much appreciated.

-Ramchand

By no means I am a Guru, but taking a stab at your PD, with current yr's Spill over, we will be clearing only till Mar 2008 and considering an approximate Spill over of 25 - 30 K next yr, and ~2.5k demand per month till Mid 2008 and ~1.5 - 2K demand per month starting mid 2008 till mid 2009, you might get through in the next yr intake. Meaning, you might be current befor Feb 2013 - Apr 2013.

Thats all assuming 3012 doesn't pass. If that passes, you might get through earlier than that.

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Originally Posted by kumarbos

Did anyone heard about NVC notice after Sep 2008 for EB2I?

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I think last NVC notice information was from Ron gotcher confirming July30, where did you hear about Sept 2008?

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Originally Posted by bieber

I think last NVC notice information was from Ron gotcher confirming July30, where did you hear about Sept 2008?

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Someone on this forum said his friend with 9/11/2008 PD got a fee notice. He initially said Oct but later corrected to Sept. If you go back a few pages, you might find it.

@RamChand!.. Option 1: Become dependent if you want to stay with your wife/family.
Option 2: If you want to be away !..go back to India..and do some work in some multi-national company i am sure they will give you nice perks as you came back from US.
Regarding 2009 becoming current- My friend no one knows what will happen to HR 3012 but all i can say is "Life should go on...." so relax be positive ..discuss with your family and move forward I am sure you will succeed ...Good lucK!

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Originally Posted by vizcard

Someone on this forum said his friend with 9/11/2008 PD got a fee notice. He initially said Oct but later corrected to Sept. If you go back a few pages, you might find it.

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My friend recently got the NVC fee notice and his PD is 08/19/2008.

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Originally Posted by ramchand

Hello All,

I am a new member, so please forgive if posting in wrong thread. Please move it to appropriate location if needed.

I was hoping I could get some advise about my situation.
I am in my 6th year H1B with no PERM on file. Unfortunately, my company is shuttering so no approved I-140 for me. Other companies not willing to hire because H1B cannot be extended any further.

My options are:
1) Go out of the country for 1 year so that fresh H1B can be filed after I get back as wife's dependant on H4.
2) Go onto my wife's H4 and wait for my wife's PD(April 2009) to get current.

I do not want to sit idle for too long, so I am trying to get an estimate as to when my wife will get current. If it is going to be more than a year, I might as well go out of the country for a year. Separation from Spouse is hard, but sitting idle will be even harder :(. I already have a job offer from outside the US (with no Visa issues for that country).

Any thoughts/estimates from you are much appreciated.

-Ramchand

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Bro... first of all you are lucky that you have a backup... my guess is same time next year you would be good without 3012 and in couple of months you will be good if 3012 makes through.... dont worry bro... you are in good shape...

Vizcard, thanks

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Originally Posted by Zoroark

My friend recently got the NVC fee notice and his PD is 08/19/2008.

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Zoroark, can you confirm the date of this receipt?

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Originally Posted by bieber

I think last NVC notice information was from Ron gotcher confirming July30, where did you hear about Sept 2008?

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Yes, he confirmed that he received notice in November for 2 or 3 clients with July 2008 PD. But someone with June 2008 PD received NVC fee notice in May 2011 which is why I beleive they will move the date to July 1 2008 in January 2012's bulletin. As per Ron, NVC send the notice 4 to 9 months in advance.

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Originally Posted by Tomtuat

Yes, he confirmed that he received notice in November for 2 or 3 clients with July 2008 PD. But someone with June 2008 PD received NVC fee notice in May 2011 which is why I beleive they will move the date to July 1 2008 in January 2012's bulletin. As per Ron, NVC send the notice 4 to 9 months in advance.

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that 4 - 9 months is very variable depending on the source. I've heard 6 - 12 months as well. But I hope you are right. As I said before, I believe dates will move to June 30 and then stall or retrogress (my opinion).

Hello All,
I've been a silent member in this forum visiting at least twice a day. Great work by the entire team here...

I think the popular prediction for VB dates movement is July 1, 2008 (in next 1-2 months) and then retrogression.

This is being assumed based on initial NVC fee receipts issued to applicants about 4-5 months back. I guess we need to find out from those folks how far there cases have advanced since then. I think they need to submit initial documentation to NVC, then it gets verified and NVC requests applicant to fill another set of documents. Once they receive it and verify it the applicant is considered documentarily complete. Then they send it to overseas for scheduling the immigrant visa interview.

Is it possible to find out whether folks whose PD is in March (as per Dec VB) have completed all documentation and received interview letters from NVC/Consulate?

Also what about folks in March-June time-frame? have they submitted all necessary documentation to NVC?

Unless we know these for sure i don't know whether we can say with confidence that the dates will move till July 2008 for sure.

Gurus, Please comment...

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Originally Posted by vizcard

that 4 - 9 months is very variable depending on the source. I've heard 6 - 12 months as well. But I hope you are right. As I said before, I believe dates will move to June 30 and then stall or retrogress (my opinion).

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I hope we'll have the bulletin on Friday!!

I was wondering how would the demand data have an impact on the PD movement in the Jan VB given the fact that the CO is moving dates to build a pipeline

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Originally Posted by natvyas

I was wondering how would the demand data have an impact on the PD movement in the Jan VB given the fact that the CO is moving dates to build a pipeline

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Its more important for us rather than for CO. More data points === more visibility in to the process and better calculations.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by natvyas

I was wondering how would the demand data have an impact on the PD movement in the Jan VB given the fact that the CO is moving dates to build a pipeline

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natvyas,

For EB2, the Demand Data can not really tell us anything positive.

I expect it to look exactly as last month, give or take 25-100 cases. Essentially they will represent CP cases where the visas have been allocated, but the interview has not yet taken place.

All EB2-IC dates that could be adjudicated are effectively Current. If a visa is requested by USCIS, it will be issued and immediately consumed to approve the case. Therefore it will not appear in the Demand Data.

If the numbers rise substantially in the Demand Data, it would indicate that there are no further visas to allocate to EB2-IC in December. I don't expect this to happen, although DOS do seem to have already allocated the majority of the 27% available for Q1.

If it takes 4-5 months to adjudicate a new I-485, then only cases submitted in July/August will be coming ready for approval. That is not a large number and the existing preadjudicated cases seem to be virtually all approved.

Only if the dates retrogress should we expect the numbers in the Demand Data to increase.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

natvyas,

For EB2, the Demand Data can not really tell us anything positive.

I expect it to look exactly as last month, give or take 25-100 cases. Essentially they will represent CP cases where the visas have been allocated, but the interview has not yet taken place.

All EB2-IC dates that could be adjudicated are effectively Current. If a visa is requested by USCIS, it will be issued and immediately consumed to approve the case. Therefore it will not appear in the Demand Data.

If the numbers rise substantially in the Demand Data, it would indicate that there are no further visas to allocate to EB2-IC in December. I don't expect this to happen, although DOS do seem to have already allocated the majority of the 27% available for Q1.

If it takes 4-5 months to adjudicate a new I-485, then only cases submitted in July/August will be coming ready for approval. That is not a large number and the existing preadjudicated cases seem to be virtually all approved.

Only if the dates retrogress should we expect the numbers in the Demand Data to increase.

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This implies that dates will move significantly, no?

vizcard, I really wish that it means the date will move forward, but it is USCIS and DOL we are talking about :)

According to last month's demand data, the supply far exceeded demand, so they should have made current, but they didn't. The same logic applies here too, low DD should mean a forward movement (and I am badly hoping it is), but we would never know.

out conservative guru Teddy says 50%, so lets hope for the best.

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Originally Posted by vizcard

This implies that dates will move significantly, no?

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vizcard,

Not really.

CO can move the Cut off Dates independent of Demand currently because the new cases have yet to be adjudicated. I am sure CO knows already what date he is aiming for.

Personally, if I was CO, I would move it in several smaller increments.

Why? As long as the dates continue to move forward, everybody is happy. If the dates stall or retrogress, people will be unhappy. We saw that last year. Since that is bound to happen at some point, I would delay that situation as long as possible.

The only caveat to that is that, hopefully CO is getting some data from USCIS regarding Receipt totals. If they are either higher or lower than he is expecting, he might have to rethink his strategy.

Ultimately, what will be, will be.

Friends, I know this is a bit off topic and may have been discussed in the past but I was wondering if someone can give me a quick reply.
My birth certificate is in Hindi language and does not have my name on it. It just says that a Boy was born to my parents on that date.

I have two separate affidavits from my parents stating the fact my name was not added to my original certificate.
Are these two affidavits sufficient for I-485 filing or do I need to get my original BC translated into English?
If yes, can it be any professional transalor company or does it has to be from the native Municipal corporation?
Thanks in advance

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Originally Posted by aaron385

Friends, I know this is a bit off topic and may have been discussed in the past but I was wondering if someone can give me a quick reply.
My birth certificate is in Hindi language and does not have my name on it. It just says that a Boy was born to my parents on that date.

I have two separate affidavits from my parents stating the fact my name was not added to my original certificate.
Are these two affidavits sufficient for I-485 filing or do I need to get my original BC translated into English?
If yes, can it be any professional transalor company or does it has to be from the native Municipal corporation?
Thanks in advance

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Not a legal advice, please consult a lawyer.

I have a similar issue - no name, only baby boy/girl, but in English.
Per my attorney - You could get away with two things:
1. English Translation
2. Board exam certificate with your and parents' name.

From what I remember from messages on this board only - translation could be done by anyone. Please confirm this though.

And this message should have been in the 485 thread. Have a look at that if you haven't to resolve other issues you may have.

Again, not a legal advice, please consult a lawyer.

@ramchand: As you see there are two options. Predictions can always go wrong. Or something could happen that might delay the total process, there are no guarantee. You may want to take up the job and if everything goes well and if the dates become current then you can come back on H4, get EAD and get a job.
If that didn't happen wait for a year get H1 and come back.
You should feel lucky that you have so many options rather than no options.

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Originally Posted by ramchand

Hello All,

I am a new member, so please forgive if posting in wrong thread. Please move it to appropriate location if needed.

I was hoping I could get some advise about my situation.
I am in my 6th year H1B with no PERM on file. Unfortunately, my company is shuttering so no approved I-140 for me. Other companies not willing to hire because H1B cannot be extended any further.

My options are:
1) Go out of the country for 1 year so that fresh H1B can be filed after I get back as wife's dependant on H4.
2) Go onto my wife's H4 and wait for my wife's PD(April 2009) to get current.

I do not want to sit idle for too long, so I am trying to get an estimate as to when my wife will get current. If it is going to be more than a year, I might as well go out of the country for a year. Separation from Spouse is hard, but sitting idle will be even harder :(. I already have a job offer from outside the US (with no Visa issues for that country).

Any thoughts/estimates from you are much appreciated.

-Ramchand

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Ramchand : My spouse and I have been away from each other for a year for same reason and time has flown by. My kids are in a different country, my spouse in another country and me in a totally different country. All due to the uncertainity in the GC process. PD Aug 2008 here.

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Originally Posted by GCKnowHow

@ramchand: As you see there are two options. Predictions can always go wrong. Or something could happen that might delay the total process, there are no guarantee. You may want to take up the job and if everything goes well and if the dates become current then you can come back on H4, get EAD and get a job.
If that didn't happen wait for a year get H1 and come back.
You should feel lucky that you have so many options rather than no options.

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Originally Posted by RMS_V13

Ramchand : My spouse and I have been away from each other for a year for same reason and time has flown by. My kids are in a different country, my spouse in another country and me in a totally different country. All due to the uncertainity in the GC process. PD Aug 2008 here.

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I totally agree with you, but not with separation. Human needs are not only GC and Money, it will be linked with lot of things. As, my personal feelings I can't leave my wife and children for the case of GC. Noways :-(

In your case, my suggestions are go to college and take some higher studies education, mean while you will get your Assistant ship, funding, OPT EAD or GC EAD. I know, it is bit difficult to spend bugs. But, Knowledge is also worth it in life.

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Originally Posted by RMS_V13

Ramchand : My spouse and I have been away from each other for a year for same reason and time has flown by. My kids are in a different country, my spouse in another country and me in a totally different country. All due to the uncertainity in the GC process. PD Aug 2008 here.

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This is just sad.

I hope your GC comes soon and is worth living like this..