EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

http://www.murthy.com/2016/05/25/dos...d-predictions/
In this link there is a comment about EB3

Little Demand for EB3 Worldwide Category

The DOS reports that there is very little demand in the EB3 worldwide, category. Thus, the cutoff date remains close to current. EB3 India will benefit by the shift of some otherwise unused visa numbers from EB3 worldwide. DOS predictions are that EB3 India will advance to February or March 2005 by September 2016.

Looking for opinion of experts here. So will EB3-I move to cover March2005 or mid 2005 or whole of 2005?
Don't see it on any other website.

I'll be more than happy if EB3-I clears out, those folks (barring few substitute labor) have been waiting for a long time. Hope this is their year and they actually get through this.

Also, is there a way to complain about EB1-C abuse by companies without giving any beneficiary name. I know a company abusing this category but don't want to cause any trouble to its employees.

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Originally Posted by srisri

I'll be more than happy if EB3-I clears out, those folks (barring few substitute labor) have been waiting for a long time. Hope this is their year and they actually get through this.

Also, is there a way to complain about EB1-C abuse by companies without giving any beneficiary name. I know a company abusing this category but don't want to cause any trouble to its employees.

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I hate to bring up the animosity/jealousy or whatever you call it b/w I/C vs ROW, EB2 vs EB3, EB1-C vs other...since in the eyes on American politicians, we're all in one bucket - Immigrants. They don't know and care about EB2, EB3 etc. In fact, when you talk to the admins in office of these politicians, they don't know EB2, EB3, PD etc, all they know is we're "high skilled" and waiting for GC's.

But becoming increasingly pessimistic about the future and it makes me mad when I see these people who work for me as contractors filing in EB1C from Infosys, Genpact, CTS etc. They update documentation, test, run scripts, solve tickets and then end up getting GC in 5 months. I have see 50 people who I know over the last 3-4 years.

Maybe highlighting this EB1C abuse will be the only option for people with later PD's. Mine is 2010 and I have EAD so in 2-3 years I might get GC. But for ppl with PD's in 2011, 2012 and onwards, this might get more ugly.

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Originally Posted by smuggymba

I hate to bring up the animosity/jealousy or whatever you call it b/w I/C vs ROW, EB2 vs EB3, EB1-C vs other...since in the eyes on American politicians, we're all in one bucket - Immigrants. They don't know and care about EB2, EB3 etc. In fact, when you talk to the admins in office of these politicians, they don't know EB2, EB3, PD etc, all they know is we're "high skilled" and waiting for GC's.

But becoming increasingly pessimistic about the future and it makes me mad when I see these people who work for me as contractors filing in EB1C from Infosys, Genpact, CTS etc. They update documentation, test, run scripts, solve tickets and then end up getting GC in 5 months. I have see 50 people who I know over the last 3-4 years.

Maybe highlighting this EB1C abuse will be the only option for people with later PD's. Mine is 2010 and I have EAD so in 2-3 years I might get GC. But for ppl with PD's in 2011, 2012 and onwards, this might get more ugly.

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Its a change to even hear that people doing documentation and testing are being filed in EB1 by companies like Infosys, Genpact, CTS etc when earlier they never used to file for GC until they reach the 6th year or so. Especially knowing very well that once anyone gets a GC, they are free birds.

I am a 2010 prospect and was thinking the dates will come for the last two years and have been pushing it out every year by two year. I am not even sure if I get to file for EAD in the next two year.

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Originally Posted by srimurthy

Its a change to even hear that people doing documentation and testing are being filed in EB1 by companies like Infosys, Genpact, CTS etc when earlier they never used to file for GC until they reach the 6th year or so. Especially knowing very well that once anyone gets a GC, they are free birds.

I am a 2010 prospect and was thinking the dates will come for the last two years and have been pushing it out every year by two year. I am not even sure if I get to file for EAD in the next two year.

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I would like to find out if there is anyway that we can report such blatant abuse .... I have searched online but not found any place where we can email facts viz names, poitions etc to USCIS so they can investigate eb1C abuse .... i have found email where USCIS encourages ppl to report eb5 abuse or fraud but nothing regarding eb1C .....

Being in immigration queue in uncertainty is bad. Doesn't everyone at least agree on that ?
So people will try whatever routes they have at their disposal to get GC. Some try EB2, some try EB1. At the end of day it is just a rat race !

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Originally Posted by gcq

Being in immigration queue in uncertainty is bad. Doesn't everyone at least agree on that ?
So people will try whatever routes they have at their disposal to get GC. Some try EB2, some try EB1. At the end of day it is just a rat race !

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I agree..this is all because the system is all messed up. Given a chance anyone will try this route given that other routes have 10-15 year wait. EB1C abuse is difficult to prove. All the big companies have big lawyers doing these cases. reporting abuse is one thing, proving it is another. Plus i think we will end up digging our own grave

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Originally Posted by anuprab

I agree..this is all because the system is all messed up. Given a chance anyone will try this route given that other routes have 10-15 year wait. EB1C abuse is difficult to prove. All the big companies have big lawyers doing these cases. reporting abuse is one thing, proving it is another. Plus i think we will end up digging our own grave

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I think the abuse is blatant these days, I have seen a guy with less than 4 years already hold a GC. I recently heard that CTS is allowing its employees use their choice of attorney and don't have to go thru company attorneys because the company attorneys are becoming a bottleneck. Now coming to the anise of it, if USCIS can ask a simple question on why do they need 600 managers every year and ask for the already approved candidates info all the companies will fall into place.

BTW, I don't want to digress the agenda of this thread, please move my posts to appropriate thread.

There was a post in Trackitt by user maveric70 about the general attitude of Government towards Employment immigration especially towards Indians..it definitely deserves at least one read.


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Posted by maverick70 (62) 21 May 2016#5045
to sath1982:

Look at all of you. Squabbling over a few 2803 EB-1 visas per year for India and a few 'thousand' more that EB-1 India gets and horizontal carryover in that category

The fundamental problem is non-acceptance of Indians as Immigrants. That's the mentality. They have absolutely no problem in keeping you a non-immigrant for decades. In the same token they see DACA children as Americans and DAPA parents as Americans. They have no issues in processing a million DACA applications in 3 months while your extension takes over 9 months. They have absolutely no hesitation in adding more restrictions to your work permit. Change city file an amendment. Change employer file amendment, finishing 3 years file an extension.

Travel outside with a valid extension the department of state has no hesitation in denying you a visa at the consulate knowing very well that you are living the productive part of your career in the country and will have hardships if you can't come back to take kids out of school and sell or donate your belongings house car etc and find a new job back home. In the same token they are ready to hand out 5 million EAD with freedom to work and travel. Not that I have anything against treating undocumented humanely but you handle millions humanely but you put so many restrictions on a few thousand? Why?

Form I-129 is like 30 pages long. DACA/DAPA application is like not even a page. You struggle to get your Drivers License renewed even though doing things the right way while they are doled out without restrictions to thousands.

While you and your children who either born here or brought here as kids are still non-immigrants. They don't see you as Americans contributing to communities, societies, schools paying taxes, making your organization competitive by working hard. Wake up. Smell the coffee. See the reality.

It's a two way street. You are being exploited for decades. At 2803 visas per year for India a person applying in EB2 today will get greened in 2042 and a person applying in EB3 will get greened 2103. Yes do the the math. So why are they accepting and approving I-140 applications knowing very well they will not be able to keep their commitment of giving an immigrant visa for such a long time.

People will die or be in their old age by the time their dates will be current. Do you think they don't know this but have no compassion or empathy and can't even give an EAD to people who are contributing. Really they talk about fairness?

So let whoever can use EB-1 let them use and exploit it. Why talk of fairness when there is no fairness in the system. I would love all 40040 EB-1 visas to be granted to Indians. Let EB2/EB3 categories be overrun by Indians. After all they are allowing the family based and undocumented category to be run over by millions from South America.

Again I will repeat nothing against the people who are getting benefits. Their situation deserves it. And I will repeat it's the mindset that we are not deserving for some reason and need to be restricted choked in freedom of thought, movement and restriction that I have a huge issue with. That mentality needs to go for us to succeed. We are productive lawyers, doctors, nurses, scientists, programmers, equity traders, hedge fund managers CTOs/CIOs, engineers and this is the treatment we get? I am not saying treat us specially but at least treat us fairly worthy of our contributions.

Stop squabbling, thinking of fairness and stop blaming your own country fellows for your situation. The problem resides somewhere else.

Interesting post. The only difference I see between illegals and us legals are there are employers wanting us to be in this state. In case of illegals, they don't have employers. They need to work only with politicians, Remember how companies successfully screwed up the EAD program for legals. They are large corporations with billions and their people are in all govt departments like USCIS and DHS.

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...ory-2016-4.pdf

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Originally Posted by geterdone

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...ory-2016-4.pdf

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I am pretty happy looking at the April inventory for EB3I:

- EB3ROW has pretty much stayed steady going down from 12,212 to 12,099. Which means the increase in PERM certifications had little effect in the EB3ROW inventory. This is extremely good news.

-EB3I inventory went down from 19,827 to 18,047 a decease in 1780. The quarterly quota is 720 so the rest of inventory thinned (around 1K) thinned out due to porting. Again, good for us.

Looks like the increase in the PERM certifications is yet to show up on the pending inventory. This could lead to more SO this year and less next year???

Spec, YT, other gurus...waiting for your input.

It's mindboggling to see Indians still porting from EB3 to EB2. Guys ... stop this madness. EB2 is not moving any faster than EB3.

The latest inventory insights are as follows:
1. EB4 may be running under and may yield some numbers.
2. EB1 is having more demand than supply. So much so that it will probably eat up any spillover as well.
3. EB3 seems to be holding steady - that is very surprising and kind of bad news for EB3I.
4. EB2 also holding steady - this was expected bad news for EB2I.

So net net - it's #3 that is really surprising.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

It's mindboggling to see Indians still porting from EB3 to EB2. Guys ... stop this madness. EB2 is not moving any faster than EB3.

The latest inventory insights are as follows:
1. EB4 may be running under and may yield some numbers.
2. EB1 is having more demand than supply. So much so that it will probably eat up any spillover as well.
3. EB3 seems to be holding steady - that is very surprising and kind of bad news for EB3I.
4. EB2 also holding steady - this was expected bad news for EB2I.

So net net - it's #3 that is really surprising.

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Why do you say "It's mindboggling to see Indians still porting from EB3 to EB2. Guys ... stop this madness. EB2 is not moving any faster than EB3."?

There is very very low demand till Sep, 2008. Demand up to this date is created by porting applicants. So even with normal quota (2803) any EB3I appicant with PD earlier than this would get GC in 1st 8-9 months of each financial year. So I believe your statement is incorrect.

Thanks

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Originally Posted by Suva2001

Why do you say "It's mindboggling to see Indians still porting from EB3 to EB2. Guys ... stop this madness. EB2 is not moving any faster than EB3."?

There is very very low demand till Sep, 2008. Demand up to this date is created by porting applicants. So even with normal quota (2803) any EB3I appicant with PD earlier than this would get GC in 1st 8-9 months of each financial year. So I believe your statement is incorrect.

Thanks

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Touche. I agree I was a bit over the top. But try to understand the point. EB2-I is at this point positioned worst - worse than EB3-I - except of course the fact that it is still ahead in terms of dates. But in terms of visa availability EB3-I is positioned better.

We don't know how this will play out. So while for a minority porting may still be attractive - for majority the porting to EB2 is no longer any more attractive than the possibility of EB3 dates catching upto EB2 or even exceeding in next few years.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

3. EB3 seems to be holding steady - that is very surprising and kind of bad news for EB3I.

So net net - it's #3 that is really surprising.

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Q, why would you say this is bad news for EB3I? EB3ROW PD has moved 4 years in the last year alone but has not retrogressed even with that aggressive movement. The reason is clear as the pending inventory has been steady at 11k to 12k. Even with the faster PERM certifications, EB3ROW (and EB2ROW) inventory have not increased. Considering EB3ROW has remained steady at 12k even though the category is technically current points to a good year for EB3I.

I would like to know why you say this is bad news for EB3I? Were you expecting the EB3ROW inventory to be lower?

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Originally Posted by EB3Iwaiting

Q, why would you say this is bad news for EB3I? EB3ROW PD has moved 4 years in the last year alone but has not retrogressed even with that aggressive movement. The reason is clear as the pending inventory has been steady at 11k to 12k. Even with the faster PERM certifications, EB3ROW (and EB2ROW) inventory have not increased. Considering EB3ROW has remained steady at 12k even though the category is technically current points to a good year for EB3I.

I would like to know why you say this is bad news for EB3I? Were you expecting the EB3ROW inventory to be lower?

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Yes I would've expected EB3ROW to be lower than in October.

The aggresive movement you mention already happened last year. It also became clear last year itself that it was sustainable i.e. thre was no need for retrogression.

So teh response of govt agencies is to clear PERMs and 140s... that's how they are trying to generate demand. But the fundamentally EB3ROW has not much demand and that is why I say fundamentals are very strong for EB3I. But in the meantime the agencies it seem are successful in holding back EB3-I from benefitting by doing as much as they can to generate EB3ROW demand.

That's the bad news that EB3-I otherwise should be getting a load of ununsed visas. This report kind of raised a small question mark on those prospects.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Yes I would've expected EB3ROW to be lower than in October.

The aggresive movement you mention already happened last year. It also became clear last year itself that it was sustainable i.e. thre was no need for retrogression.

So teh response of govt agencies is to clear PERMs and 140s... that's how they are trying to generate demand. But the fundamentally EB3ROW has not much demand and that is why I say fundamentals are very strong for EB3I. But in the meantime the agencies it seem are successful in holding back EB3-I from benefitting by doing as much as they can to generate EB3ROW demand.

That's the bad news that EB3-I otherwise should be getting a load of ununsed visas. This report kind of raised a small question mark on those prospects.

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looks like their sole aim is to dole out visas to RoW than Indians stuck for decades. Between one quarter the pending apps for Eb3 Row category has gone up to 3.8k from 1.7k. so they processed 2k AoS apps for RoW to put them in the pipeline for approval in just 3 months.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

4. EB2 also holding steady - this was expected bad news for EB2I.

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Q,

I beg to differ from the EB2 analysis. I can see some good news in the EB2ROW pending inventory.

Lets compare FY2015 and FY2016 as far as EB2ROW pending inventory goes.

FY15 Jan PI - 17,994
FY15 Apr PI - 19,878

FY15 had an increase of almost 2k in the PI between Jan and Apr pending inventory in spite of a record number of approvals.

FY16 Jan PI - 19,466
FY16 Apr PI - 18,828

FY16 had a decrease of 600 between Jan and Apr pending inventory. This means there were more processed than the newly available demand.

As of Apr 2016 there are 1000 lesser pending applications as compared to Apr 2015. This makes me hope that number of EB2ROW approvals from Apr - Sep will be lesser in 2016 as compared to 2015.

May be it is my wishful thinking because I would get a chance at GC if EB2ROW yielded 1.5K SO to EB2I :)

Thanks Jagan. I wouldn't conclude anything so conclusively eitherway because the reduction could be noise.

That's why I would stick to last year's consumption pattern + this year's increase in PERMs - both of which together paint a bleak picture.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Jagan01

Q,

I beg to differ from the EB2 analysis. I can see some good news in the EB2ROW pending inventory.

Lets compare FY2015 and FY2016 as far as EB2ROW pending inventory goes.

FY15 Jan PI - 17,994
FY15 Apr PI - 19,878

FY15 had an increase of almost 2k in the PI between Jan and Apr pending inventory in spite of a record number of approvals.

FY16 Jan PI - 19,466
FY16 Apr PI - 18,828

FY16 had a decrease of 600 between Jan and Apr pending inventory. This means there were more processed than the newly available demand.

As of Apr 2016 there are 1000 lesser pending applications as compared to Apr 2015. This makes me hope that number of EB2ROW approvals from Apr - Sep will be lesser in 2016 as compared to 2015.

May be it is my wishful thinking because I would get a chance at GC if EB2ROW yielded 1.5K SO to EB2I :)

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by EB3Iwaiting

I am pretty happy looking at the April inventory for EB3I:

- EB3ROW has pretty much stayed steady going down from 12,212 to 12,099. Which means the increase in PERM certifications had little effect in the EB3ROW inventory. This is extremely good news.

-EB3I inventory went down from 19,827 to 18,047 a decease in 1780. The quarterly quota is 720 so the rest of inventory thinned (around 1K) thinned out due to porting. Again, good for us.

Looks like the increase in the PERM certifications is yet to show up on the pending inventory. This could lead to more SO this year and less next year???

Spec, YT, other gurus...waiting for your input.

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Waiting for input from Spec, YT & other gurus !!

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Originally Posted by GCwaiting

Waiting for input from Spec, YT & other gurus !!

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EB3-I folks, Don't get disappointed... I don't see any red flags with this I-485 report with respect to EB3-I expected SO... I'm still hopeful that there will be big SO to EB3-I.
We have predicted that will happen in the last quarter hence urge you guys to wait till the end of the last quarter and see.
I'm not here to provide any false hopes.. when I had projected that chart 2 years ago it was a calculated guess.. I still think it will happen to greater extent unless CO wastes the visas like last year.

one way of looking at this report is :
Compare the numbers under all EB-2 and EB-3 categories.. we know that this year EB2-I will get max 4k out of total 40k of EB-2 and whereas we are expecting in EB3-I, 16k out of total 40K of EB-3.
you should be able to see that difference when you compare all the available numbers under EB-2 and EB-3 categories.
I don't want to speculate any more and would like to wait and watch till the end of September.

what I am surprised is that if eb3row is not getting enough demand why does eb3row have a cutoff date should it be current like eb2row.... this is totally wierd .... why make eb2row current and not eb3row unless eb3row is oversubscribed

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Originally Posted by YTeleven

EB3-I folks, Don't get disappointed... I don't see any red flags with this I-485 report with respect to EB3-I expected SO... I'm still hopeful that there will be big SO to EB3-I.
We have predicted that will happen in the last quarter hence urge you guys to wait till the end of the last quarter and see.
I'm not here to provide any false hopes.. when I had projected that chart 2 years ago it was a calculated guess.. I still think it will happen to greater extent unless CO wastes the visas like last year.

one way of looking at this report is :
Compare the numbers under all EB-2 and EB-3 categories.. we know that this year EB2-I will get max 4k out of total 40k of EB-2 and whereas we are expecting in EB3-I, 16k out of total 40K of EB-3.
you should be able to see that difference when you compare all the available numbers under EB-2 and EB-3 categories.
I don't want to speculate any more and would like to wait and watch till the end of September.

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I am totally with you, but like @mfd1402 said, why is EB3ROW not Current when EB2ROW is Current? Why has USCIS not generated RFE's to EB3I beyond Feb2005? These are the head scratchers..

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Originally Posted by mfd1402

what I am surprised is that if eb3row is not getting enough demand why does eb3row have a cutoff date should it be current like eb2row.... this is totally wierd .... why make eb2row current and not eb3row unless eb3row is oversubscribed

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As we discussed before CO has agenda.