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Spec,
I don't think the 43k number is aggressive. Look at it in two ways - 34k + 8600 from last yr gives you 43k. But also from trackitt trends- 26k from first 6 mos + normal allocation for the next 2 quarters will give you 43 k. Now I hope it's less and trackitt trends are overestimating similar to FY 2009. Eb1 may be aggressive in my calcs. I think a realistic number could be 35 to 36 k. Lets see how it plays out. Some official word would have been good
sbhagwat2000,Quote:
Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000
Good for your for sticking to your guns!
I also have a figure for EB2-WW of over 40k, so we are only talking about 1-2k in our viewpoint. As I said previously, September approvals for EB2-WW in a normal year drop to 40% of other months - probably because September is essentially only a 2 week month (visas run out at that point).
Historically, I tend to slightly overestimate EB2-WW, so I don't feel comfortable using a figure as high as 43k. As you point out, there is always some uncertainty as to the Trackitt ratio to use.
We are estimating EB1 in an almost complete vacuum of information. I am also hoping it will be mid 30's rather than nearer 40k. Frankly, I have no clear idea what the actual figure might be.
I would also like to hear some official word on EB1 progress. I'm not confident that wish will be fulfilled.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000
8600 from last year - is this official number? If yes, source please....
not an official number. Its an assumption since 8600 is normal quarterly allocation.Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
Spec - for a second I thought you are CO! :rolleyes: Tell me you aren't.
About sbhagwat's calculations ... i think what he is missing is the principle of steady flow in a system. EB1 is a category where there is continuous flow and no backlog. So what you see as approx 10K backlog is the normal cases waiting to be adjudicated at any point of time. So that shouldn't be counted towards full 2013 demand. Yes they will go up and down by 2-3K one year to next. But they can never go to zero.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Thought another way - you can look at them as 10/40 = 3 months worth backlog which on an average represents 3-4 months of waiting time for an EB1.
Ok got it.Quote:
Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000
My calculations differ way too much from your and ofcourse Spectators calculations - so I will leave it at that.
I wish he is given a chance to be an acting chief a single day, we can expect paragraphs and paragraphs of brief from him.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Chinese are expecting India to join them at the end of this FY, their target PD is same as Q's September 2008. They think there is no retrogression for EB2C hereafter.
Sun, same here :)Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
Kanmani - ;). I know we have a common view on this.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Suninphx,Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
May we hear your latest thinking?
I won't comment, if you prefer.
I do think it is important to hear all views and I respect both Kanmani and your views.
Send me a PM if you prefer and really don't want to air your thoughts on the forum.
Dont get my hopes up !!! :)Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Do you know if that's a prediction or they heard from CO (I remember some of them communicating with CO in the past)Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Please allow me to clarify my position on this. I no longer consider Sep 2008 as average case scenario. To me that is best case scenario now.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Q, I think early 2013 is best case scenario,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Its seems very difficult to imagine it will cross march 2008
Assuming that CO decides to make a big jump in September, what would the dates be for EB2-I? I know the chances of it happening is very minimal but want to know how big a jump that will be if it were to happen.
Thanks Q, Spec and Indiani for your comments on my numbers. When I reevaluate, I am still landing somewhere in Q1 of CY 2008. Hopefully we will all have some clarity soon with July bulletin or some CO comments.
Kanmani, re:Eb2I catching up with Eb2C, you got my hopes up too :-)
It will be a miracle if the tortoise does catchup with the hare in the real world.
My pd is dec31, 2007. I'm trying to understand the procedure for applications pickup for theoretical movements in PD.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Lets say in August bulletin (effective September 1st), dates move to Jan 1, 2008. So from September 1st onwards applications below jan 1, 2008 will be reviewed.
So I will have only one month for visa date assignment? because we are expecting September bulletin (effective october 1st), dates will be retrogressed.
i have 485 RFE that needs to be cleared in that one month. is my understanding correct?
Dec 2007 - the current retrogression is purely technical. Fundamentally if the dates move to Q1 2008 - then that's where they will stay after Sep 2013.
So you don't have to worrry about retrogression. Retro should happen if we see dates in later part of 2008.
Quote:
Originally Posted by dec2007
I think I'm confused.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Lets say in August bulletin, dates move to jan 1, 2008 and in september bulletin, dates move to 2006 or "U".
Is my understanding correct that I have only one month of window (Sept 1 - Sep 30) to be greened.
Thanks
Yes .... but there is no way they will move forward in august and then backward in sep. If at all they will move back in October.
And in this particular situation - if the dates move upto Q1 2008 - I don't think they will retro at all.
Quote:
Originally Posted by dec2007
Ok great. Thank you for quick reply and clarification.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Perhaps I am being dense, or I don't fully understand what you are saying. Perhaps you can expand on your argument.
As I see it, retrogression to date in FY2013 is a function of CO only using the initial allocation available to EB2-I. That has allowed between 250-285 visas to be allocated to EB2-I each month to date.
Since there have been sufficient cases with a PD before September 2004 to use the numbers available, the Cut Off Date has remained at 01SEP04.
Cut Off Dates will accelerate rapidly when spillover is released, hopefully into 2008.
Won't the same initial conditions be true when FY2014 starts in October 2013?
CO will revert to only using the initial allocation of 2,803 visas, or 252 per month.
Even leaving new porting demand aside, there will be more applicants ready for approval, whose cases were not picked up when they became Current at the end of FY2013 or have replied to a RFE issued towards the end of FY2013, than visas available.
To only use 252 per month, the Cut Off Date will have to retrogress substantially from whatever it reaches at the end of FY2013. How far will depend on porting demand from earlier PD years.
The only way I see the Cut Off Date can be sustained in 2008 is if potential spillover numbers for FY2014 are applied from October 2013 itself. I don't think anyone believes that will happen.
I am confused.
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I think part of the confusion lies in that dec2007 is using the date when the VB is published, not when it becomes effective. So, when dec2007 talks about August, they actually mean the September VB and September refers to the October VB.
dec2007, please correct me if I am wrong.
Spec - you need to consider the source of the numbers from 2004. They are no longer original EB2. They are all portings now. And of course that is not a perennial source.
But granted - your logic is that then instead of 2004 - it should move to 2005.
If so - I would agree .. but then that's what I call not based on fundamentals and holding dates back purely on technicality of 2800 quota. The reality is EB2I consistently receives over 10K visas (even in a bad year) and so holding dates so back in history only serves to bring people's morale down. I think VO is insensitive stupid and callous in doing so. Callous because then they are not doing quarterly spillovers as required by law. With those quarterly spillovers - EB2I dates would not linger so back.
Anyway .. but that could be a philosophical difference between us. I guess I get source of your confusion - that you are assuming EB3 porting (prior to X date) to be greater than EB2 monthly quota which then holds the dates back. As I said - I do not think that source is granted nor I assume that CO will not yield anything at all at end of each quarter which then requires for him not to retro in October - to the degree that you think he will.
No, they didn't mention CO, they were in the middle of those 20K additional case discussion.Quote:
Originally Posted by bieber
Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
Come-on guys! We have seen much more blood and battle than this. Initially we thought 18K FB is ours, then 13K FB + 13 K regular, then 13K alone, now just PD could barely cross 2007 !!!!Quote:
Originally Posted by willywonka
We are capable of more than this. That was just a copy & paste to let you guys know what they discuss about COD movement.
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Thanks.
I understand where you are coming from now.
I mentioned it would likely retrogress because clearly that is important to Dec2007 and could adversely affect when they receive an approval by nearly a year.
Philosophically, I understand where you are coming from. I don't think we will ever see a FY2012 pattern again. Perhaps some gentle, safe quarterly spillover.
This FY, even that was not possible, because EB2-WW needed any spare visas purely to allow them to catch up the backlog created last year.