EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

Spec yours is a great post. I see your point about 7% limit. I am not sure if it applies to FD though. So will have to chew on it for a while. But I would recommend this post should be put under FAQs or somewhere where people have easy access to it. Its very fine insight into visa allocation.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

I think it is worth explaining why I believe that spare visa that fall to EB3 will go to EB3-ROW first. I know that some people do not share this view. It may be a subject that we agree to disagree on.

The law setting out the fact that a country may not exceed 7% is given under INA 202 (a)(2):



The law which appears to be used for spillover says the following:



There is an argument that INA 202 (A)(5) quoted above only deals with Fall Across.

In that case INA 202 (a)(3) contains the same language.



Either way, the argument below is valid.

In EB2, since Mexico, Philippines and ROW are all Current and they have no further demand, the spare visas are allocated to EB2-IC, since there are no "qualified immigrants" who may otherwise be issued such visas.

For EB3, in contrast, Countries within EB3-ROW represent "qualified immigrants", since they have demand and they have not yet reached their own 7% limits.

Spare visas cannot be allocated to EB3-I (who have reached their 7% limit) until either there is no further demand from EB3-ROW or every Country within EB3-ROW has reached its own 7% limit.

As much as EB3-I is constrained by the 7% limit, EB3-ROW is constrained by the overall 28.6% limit of visas available to EB3.

To put this into context, in FY2010, EB3-I received 3,036 visas. Within EB3-ROW, excluding South Korea, only 5 Countries were able to receive even 1,000 visas.

Worse for EB3-I, no Countries in ROW use their full allocations in EB1/2 & EB4/5 and the 7% limit is calculated on the overall total.

For simplicity, taking 9,800 as the the 7% limit for EB, then Pakistan, who used the most EB3 visas at 1,571 only used 3,058 visas in EB overall. They could use an additional 6,742 spillover visas to reach 9,800.

Excluding South Korea, of ROW Countries, Canada used the most overall EB visas at 5,893, so even they would be able to use an additional 3,907 visas to reach the overall 7% limit.

Based on last year, even EB3-P would be able to consume more visas - they share the same Cut Off Date as ROW and are constrained by it from receiving more visas.

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Originally Posted by vishnu

Q - one more question on this issue. Lets assume they make it C and get in tons more 485s. But they still won't be able to utilize the visa numbers though. So is there any point? I get now why you think there is chance for spillover to EB3 - at least its pre-adjuticated and hence the visa #s can be attached to the 485s.

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Vishnu, the point of massive date movement will be to take in massive # of applications in. Now they can't process most of those applications anyway. Whether USCIS wants to take in massive apps in ... we will see :)

Is people observed or not, all people who are current in July VB. if miss July 1 have to wait 3 more days coz of long weekend and
Hope IOs will come out of their holiday mood quick to work on our applications :-((

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Originally Posted by mpurna77

I really want to read INA to get some knowledge - is there any website online to read that :-)

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I usually go to this USCIS page, where you can go to both the INA and 8CFR http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...0045f3d6a1RCRD

The INA is here http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...90aRCRD&CH=act

8CFR is here http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...0aRCRD&CH=8cfr

Don't you just love those user friendly urls!

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Originally Posted by Spectator

I usually go to this USCIS page, where you can go to both the INA and 8CFR http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...0045f3d6a1RCRD

The INA is here http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...90aRCRD&CH=act

8CFR is here http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...0aRCRD&CH=8cfr

Don't you just love those user friendly urls!

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Thank you very much for info.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Spec yours is a great post. I see your point about 7% limit. I am not sure if it applies to FD though. So will have to chew on it for a while. But I would recommend this post should be put under FAQs or somewhere where people have easy access to it. Its very fine insight into visa allocation.

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Q,

I'll do that if you wish.

Since it is a subject that people do disagree on (often passionately I've seen on other fora) I will reproduce it in FAQ to start with, including an appropriate disclaimer.

I have never found any law or regulation that says that it does not apply to FD and I do not see how it cannot, especially under (a)(3).

In fact, if I were EB3-ROW, I would be beyond angry if it did not operate as I have outlined, especially as they already lose so many visas in various ways.

At the moment, having studied the relevant sections of the INA, it is a view I hold with great conviction, but it can only be considered interpretation, since we have no real life application of the law to date.

If and When it is proved either way by DOS actions, It might become appropriate to move it to FACTS & DATA.

I hope you consider that an appropriate course of action.

Friends... I do not want to digress from the purpose of this thread but bring to your attention to an initiative that may help EB2 folks. Please vote and let us know your thoughts.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...p-Action-Items

PS: I posted this link here since it appears that most people like me have bookmarked the EB2 Predictions thread.

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Originally Posted by soggadu

hang on tight...you will be in by Aug 2011

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Thank you all for your replies..

Gosh.. just when i started to relax on the thought of me beingcurrent in AUG 2011... people have started talking about retrogression after september 2011...As always , this brings in a new doubts in my mind....

My PD is MARCH 9 2007, EB2_i, Let us say on AUG 1, when i become current, i send in all papers/applications(I-485,I-765,I-131)
.
How much time will it take to get a GC approximately..( FP ,Name check needs to be done)
What do you gurus expect the realistic date would be if it retrogress?
If the dates retrogress to say MARCH 1 2007, what will happen to my file? will i have to wait again till the date moves beyon MARCH 9 2007

All, Please bare with my questions, as it has been a frustarting four years of missing the boat in july 2007...

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Originally Posted by sidd21

Thank you all for your replies..

Gosh.. just when i started to relax on the thought of me beingcurrent in AUG 2011... people have started talking about retrogression after september 2011...As always , this brings in a new doubts in my mind....

My PD is MARCH 9 2007, EB2_i, Let us say on AUG 1, when i become current, i send in all papers/applications(I-485,I-765,I-131)
.
How much time will it take to get a GC approximately..( FP ,Name check needs to be done)
What do you gurus expect the realistic date would be if it retrogress?
If the dates retrogress to say MARCH 1 2007, what will happen to my file? will i have to wait again till the date moves beyon MARCH 9 2007

All, Please bare with my questions, as it has been a frustarting four years of missing the boat in july 2007...

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Knowing that CIS is still processing I-485s (employment-based) from 2010, it will take about an year to get to process your case.

don't keep an iota of doubt in your mind ......... even if the dates retrogress they will be in later part of 2007.....you will get greened .

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Originally Posted by sidd21

Thank you all for your replies..

Gosh.. just when i started to relax on the thought of me beingcurrent in AUG 2011... people have started talking about retrogression after september 2011...As always , this brings in a new doubts in my mind....

My PD is MARCH 9 2007, EB2_i, Let us say on AUG 1, when i become current, i send in all papers/applications(I-485,I-765,I-131)
.
How much time will it take to get a GC approximately..( FP ,Name check needs to be done)
What do you gurus expect the realistic date would be if it retrogress?
If the dates retrogress to say MARCH 1 2007, what will happen to my file? will i have to wait again till the date moves beyon MARCH 9 2007

All, Please bare with my questions, as it has been a frustarting four years of missing the boat in july 2007...

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From what i have seen/heard from friends, it might take atleast 3 months ( best case scenario) for FP, FBI etc, but i personally do not think dates to retrogress beyond March 9 2007 as many people will get cleared and as our gurus provided data, pwmb numbesr is not enough for dates to retrogress beyond March.

sidd21

People are talking about retogression after considering a big move in next 2-4 months, I think Mar2007 is very safe and the dates won't go back there ever again. In other words, you don't have to worry about date movement

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Originally Posted by Spectator

The law which appears to be used for spillover says the following:

(5) RULES FOR EMPLOYMENT-BASED IMMIGRANTS-

(A) EMPLOYMENT-BASED IMMIGRANTS NOT SUBJECT TO PER COUNTRY LIMITATION IF ADDITIONAL VISAS AVAILABLE- If the total number of visas available under paragraph (1), (2), (3), (4), or (5) of section 203(b) for a calendar quarter exceeds the number of qualified immigrants who may otherwise be issued such visas, the visas made available under that paragraph shall be issued without regard to the numerical limitation under paragraph (2) of this subsection during the remainder of the calendar quarter.

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Great post Spec. But sometime I feel that law can be interpretated as DOS wants and as it will be lobbied. I can very well argue with respect to above statement that this rule could be interpretated same throughout across the board not only for Fall Across. As per definition of "qualified immigrants", Spillover should first go to EB2-ROW then EB3-ROW (as they still have not reached 7% limit) and then be allocated to oversubscribed countries again on basis of EB1-retrogressed to EB2-retrogressed to EB3-retrogressed.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Header Updated.

The key messages are:

Based on USCIS processing times and Trackitt data it seems EB1 and EB2ROW both are very slow to process cases filed in 2011 FY. This will result in SOFAD large enough to clear all teh way through Aug 2007 for EB2I with a decent chance that there actually will be some SOFAD given to EB3 too.

As per EB2, DoS will probably move the dates into Aug 2007 in Aug 2011 bulletin itself. The reason being they might want to accomodate as much PWMB as possible. Then in Sep or OCt bulleting thtey will probably move dates 1 year ahead to take in large applciations and then retrogress dates in November.

Please check header for details.

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Thanks Q for your analysis. So spillover left is around: 37636 - 24000 = 13636 ?. I think the remaining s 13k should be able to cover all the eb2 pre adjudicated cases (11k until august) from June inventory. The remaining 2k going to cover any porting cases. PWMB have very little time to get processed this year, so they will get rollover to next fiscal year.

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Originally Posted by shaumack

Great post Spec. But sometime I feel that law can be interpretated as DOS wants and as it will be lobbied. I can very well argue with respect to above statement that this rule could be interpretated same throughout across the board not only for Fall Across. As per definition of "qualified immigrants", Spillover should first go to EB2-ROW then EB3-ROW (as they still have not reached 7% limit) and then be allocated to oversubscribed countries again on basis of EB1-retrogressed to EB2-retrogressed to EB3-retrogressed.

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shaumack,

I agree with your general point.

I agree that there are different interpretations to these laws.

However, that is not how DOS currently interpret it. In the May VB notes, Charles Oppenheim stated that the FD from EB1 was being dealt with under INA 202 (a)(5)(A).

My description is about how it is currently operating.

I was just wondering, what is the cutoff date for an application to be considered PWMB. Is it July 1, 2007 or Aug 17, 2007 or some other date. Put another way, when USCIS opened the gates in 2007, what was the PD cutoff date they established?

They let the folks prior to PD:July 1st 2007 file for 485 until August 17th 2007.

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Originally Posted by bhayzone

I was just wondering, what is the cutoff date for an application to be considered PWMB. Is it July 1, 2007 or Aug 17, 2007 or some other date. Put another way, when USCIS opened the gates in 2007, what was the PD cutoff date they established?

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My view.

The Cut Off Date in July 2007 was Current (apart from EB3-EW which was U), so anyone who was ready to file a concurrent I-140/I-485 package could apply.

The problem was that many people were still waiting for their PERM to be approved to be able to do this. Those who were unable to do so are the PWMB.

Since USCIS eventually accepted I-485 received up to 17 Aug 2007, then something overnighted on the 16th could have made it in time, if the I-140/I-485 package was pre-prepared. That means the latest PD would be 15 Aug 2007 and the PERM was approved in 1 day.

The USCIS figures show very few August PD applications, so I think people generally use a PD of the end of July as the date when most PERM realistically couldn't be approved and the I-140/I-485 sent in time.

Certainly, any dates beyond mid August the end of July are not PWMB, because they never had a chance to board the boat!

Similarly, dependents added the Primary's family after the dates retrogressed would not be considered PWMB for the same reason.

People with PD beyond mid Aug 2007 are just classified as starting the process after retrogression had started.

Edit :- Further discussion has established that only those who were Current in the original July 2007 VB were eligible to file up to August 17, 2007. Therefore, there should be no PWMB beyond July 31, 2007.

Please ignore comments in RED, although I have left them in to show the original post and the mistakes it contained.

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Originally Posted by leo07

They let the folks prior to PD:July 1st 2007 file for 485 until August 17th 2007.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

My view.

The Cut Off Date in July 2007 was Current (apart from EB3-EW which was U), so anyone who was ready to file a concurrent I-140/I-485 package could apply.

The problem was that many people were still waiting for their PERM to be approved to be able to do this. Those who were unable to do so are the PWMB.

Since USCIS eventually accepted I-485 received up to 17 Aug 2007, then something overnighted on the 16th could have made it in time, if the I-140/I-485 package was pre-prepared. That means the latest PD would be 15 Aug 2007 and the PERM was approved in 1 day.

The USCIS figures show very few August PD applications, so I think people generally use a PD of the end of July as the date when most PERM realistically couldn't be approved and the I-140/I-485 sent in time.

Certainly, any dates beyond mid August are not PWMB, because they never had a chance to board the boat!

Similarly, dependents added the Primary's family after the dates retrogressed would not be considered PWMB for the same reason.

People with PD beyond mid Aug 2007 are just classified as starting the process after retrogression had started.

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Originally Posted by bhayzone

I was just wondering, what is the cutoff date for an application to be considered PWMB. Is it July 1, 2007 or Aug 17, 2007 or some other date. Put another way, when USCIS opened the gates in 2007, what was the PD cutoff date they established?

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Spec I completely agree with what you are saying, also I believe that the agencies may try to get every possible pre-adjudicated case and the dates would likely advance to 15th Aug 2007. Hopefully we should be able to get over this term PWMB for good after this season :). Worst case with my late Jul PD I will be one of the last PWMB torchbearers :)

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Originally Posted by bieber

sidd21

People are talking about retogression after considering a big move in next 2-4 months, I think Mar2007 is very safe and the dates won't go back there ever again. In other words, you don't have to worry about date movement

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Thank you all for the replies

Spec

Thanks for the detailed monthly perm breakdown list, I'm not sure if EB1C category need to apply for labor, if yes then what criteria you used to exclude them in the numbers?

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Originally Posted by bieber

Spec

Thanks for the detailed monthly perm breakdown list, I'm not sure if EB1C category need to apply for labor, if yes then what criteria you used to exclude them in the numbers?

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EB1 and EB2-NIW have no need of LC, so the PERM data only includes EB2 and EB3 cases.

I was incorrect that it was not July 1st. I think it's 31st July, the "current" status was valid only for applications that fit July 2007 VB. They reverted the VB sooner in July and some people could not file. So, with all the pressure that's put on by various parties, they held the VB valid.

So, the applications that had a July PD, but approved before August 17th were eligible. I do not think the "Current" status was applicable to PD's after July 31st 2007.( about 98% sure)

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Originally Posted by Spectator

My view.

The Cut Off Date in July 2007 was Current (apart from EB3-EW which was U), so anyone who was ready to file a concurrent I-140/I-485 package could apply.

The problem was that many people were still waiting for their PERM to be approved to be able to do this. Those who were unable to do so are the PWMB.

Since USCIS eventually accepted I-485 received up to 17 Aug 2007, then something overnighted on the 16th could have made it in time, if the I-140/I-485 package was pre-prepared. That means the latest PD would be 15 Aug 2007 and the PERM was approved in 1 day.

The USCIS figures show very few August PD applications, so I think people generally use a PD of the end of July as the date when most PERM realistically couldn't be approved and the I-140/I-485 sent in time.

Certainly, any dates beyond mid August are not PWMB, because they never had a chance to board the boat!

Similarly, dependents added the Primary's family after the dates retrogressed would not be considered PWMB for the same reason.

People with PD beyond mid Aug 2007 are just classified as starting the process after retrogression had started.

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Teddy since you are also PWMB and everyone agrees that PMWB's will not be able to get the visa numbers this year as it takes atleast 3 months for processing and all.
What about EAD, how much time would that take to come?

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Spec I completely agree with what you are saying, also I believe that the agencies may try to get every possible pre-adjudicated case and the dates would likely advance to 15th Aug 2007. Hopefully we should be able to get over this term PWMB for good after this season :). Worst case with my late Jul PD I will be one of the last PWMB torchbearers :)

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Originally Posted by leo07

I was incorrect that it was not July 1st. I think it's 31st July, the "current" status was valid only for applications that fit July 2007 VB. They reverted the VB sooner in July and some people could not file. So, with all the pressure that's put on by various parties, they held the VB valid.

So, the applications that had a July PD, but approved before August 17th were eligible. I do not think the "Current" status was applicable to PD's after July 31st 2007.( about 98% sure)

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USCIS memo on this states that "it will accept employment-based applications to adjust status (Form I-
485) filed by aliens whose priority dates are current under the July Visa Bulletin, No. 107."

And I don't understand if it means everyone with a July PD, or everyone with a PD when the July bulletin was released (that would include only PDs till June 2007)


http://www.murthy.com/uscis_update.pdf

"U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) announced that,
beginning immediately, it will accept employment-based applications to adjust status (Form I-
485) filed by aliens whose priority dates are current under the July Visa Bulletin, No. 107.
USCIS will accept applications filed not later than August 17, 2007."

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Originally Posted by ifaith

Teddy since you are also PWMB and everyone agrees that PMWB's will not be able to get the visa numbers this year as it takes atleast 3 months for processing and all.
What about EAD, how much time would that take to come?

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EAD / AP applications have a SLA of 90 days so you can rest assured that will come by. But for all PWMB's being able to file for 485 will itself be a great achievement by Sep 2011.Filing for AOS would keep us in status for 6 months automatically by section 245K so we can be out of the H1b extension loop if need be. I believe if that happens GC may also come by in 4-6 months whenever they can allocate sufficient numbers for these cases. This year one thing is clear that whenever they were able to assess that EB1 / EB2 ROW / EB5 demand is less spillover was applied so we can hope for GC sooner as well.

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Originally Posted by leo07

I was incorrect that it was not July 1st. I think it's 31st July, the "current" status was valid only for applications that fit July 2007 VB. They reverted the VB sooner in July and some people could not file. So, with all the pressure that's put on by various parties, they held the VB valid.

So, the applications that had a July PD, but approved before August 17th were eligible. I do not think the "Current" status was applicable to PD's after July 31st 2007.( about 98% sure)

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Leo,

I agree that sounds sensible and I would have done that, but how do you account for the entries in the USCIS Inventory for EB2-IC and all Countries in EB3 with PDs in August 2007 ?

Edit:- I see the memo makes it pretty clear that only people who were Current under the original July VB were allowed to file.

Maybe, since it was Current, rather than specific Cut Off Date, they allowed PDs beyond July 31st. Even I don't think that sounds a great explanation, but it is the only one I can think of. It could be the USCIS Inventory still has errors, but they should have been eliminated by now (well at least obvious ones like that).

Right. and @ Vishnu: "Technically", they would (should) have to make EB2I/C current prior to moving SOFAD to EB3. PWMB are likely looking at May- July 2012 before they can get approved. That is still better than it was looking 3 months ago. We have to remember that all this backlog that is causing the extra SOFAD (EB2 ROW) this year is going to catch up with us next year.

Some people(lawyers) filed for 485 anyways during those days, just because they had nothing to lose. Bigger employers/attorneys where obviously against that.

I think some ( tiny number of those ) got lucky and some could be upgrades. Other than that I can't think any other reasons:)

Thanks Leo.

Trackitt doesn't show any very reliable August 2007 PD cases.

I appreciate you bringing your knowledge to the discussion and to bhayzone for digging up the memo. I'm leaning towards the USCIS Inventory being in error.

I learn something new every day. :)

For EB2-I, I am trying to come up with a rough approximate count of visa numbers that it would require to clear the current inventory and PWMB (and dependents). Do the calculations below make sense? I believe you guys must have already crunched the numbers and discussed it before and I apologize if I am asking you to work all this again, but I just wanted to validate if my numbers are sensible or way out of the generally accepted numbers here.

For EB2-I
7k - current inventory
8k * 2.5 = 20k - PWMB+dependents
Total: 27k (visa numbers required to clear inventory + PWMB and dependents).

bhayzone, you should also include china in it since IC move together. Secondly need to add portings.

PWMBs won't matter this year given there is much less time available to adjudicate those. And dependents are covered in inventory.

That way the total number to cover the inventory is 35.6K + portings + CP =42K max.


Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Grand Total
January 3 6 27 26 18 125 2,171 2,376
February - 4 4 7 71 109 2,025 2,220
March 1 4 8 33 217 171 2,037 2,471
April 3 5 22 17 7 116 1,994 2,164
May 1 2 10 24 10 1,503 1,647 3,197
June 3 2 13 20 24 2,362 1,881 4,305
July 5 4 7 30 46 2,114 3,272 5,478
August - 2 11 24 52 2,338 496 2,923
September - 35 9 34 117 2,447 - 2,642
October 1 17 15 15 77 2,448 - 2,573
November 3 1 5 25 97 2,364 - 2,495
December - 4 16 37 120 2,633 - 2,810
Grand Total 20 86 147 292 856 18,730 15,523 35,654

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Originally Posted by bhayzone

For EB2-I, I am trying to come up with a rough approximate count of visa numbers that it would require to clear the current inventory and PWMB (and dependents). Do the calculations below make sense? I believe you guys must have already crunched the numbers and discussed it before and I apologize if I am asking you to work all this again, but I just wanted to validate if my numbers are sensible or way out of the generally accepted numbers here.

For EB2-I
7k - current inventory
8k * 2.5 = 20k - PWMB+dependents
Total: 27k (visa numbers required to clear inventory + PWMB and dependents).

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bhayzone,

I agree absolutely with Q.

42k is probably the magic number.

Most dependents that have never had a chance to file I-485, like PWMB, won't have time to be approved this FY.

So, with IC starting with 5.6k allocation, spillover of 37.4k is needed to clear the current backlog.

That is a tall order and needs everything to come in at the top end of expectations - something like:

EB5 -- 8.0
EB1 - 20.0
EB2 -- 9.4
Tot - 37.4

and some of those are looking quite tight.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

bhayzone,

I agree absolutely with Q.

42k is probably the magic number.

Most dependents that have never had a chance to file I-485, like PWMB, won't have time to be approved this FY.

So, with IC starting with 5.6k allocation, spillover of 37.4k is needed to clear the current backlog.

That is a tall order and needs everything to come in at the top end of expectations - something like:

EB4 -- 8.0
EB1 - 20.0
EB2 -- 9.4
Tot - 37.4

and some of those are looking quite tight.

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So does this mean we have enough numbers to clear cases till aug 01 07?? If yes can we hope the numbers to move forward??

I think among the above spillover numbers, the biggest uncertainty is EB1 spillovers, right? For EB2, the spillover numbers estimated are of similar order (slightly higher) as last year and EB5 is roughly assumed to be same as 2010. So, I think the way it stands is if there are 37K spillovers, then almost all EB2-I/C pending cases up to mid Aug'07 will be approved. If the spillover numbers fall short, then EB2-I/C approval dates will be anywhere between May'07 - Aug'07, depending on the # of spillovers. Is this a reasonable estimate at this point of time?

Gurus - can you please help me understand something. The spillover from Eb1 (18k) + eb2 row (8k) + eb5 (8k) + eb2 ic (6k) = 40k will cover the backlog till July 2007 + porting + maybe some pwmb. Perhaps the numbers are off by a couple of thousand, in which case it covers the backlog till June 2007 etc. Now, gurus have pointed out that processing times are quite long, so even some Eb1 visas that would be attached to FY 2011 applications may not be done. So are those numbers that may spill over IN ADDITION to the numbers I mentioned above??

Spec I am sure you meant EB5 below. And I would agree. But may be I would reduce that to 6K.

What we see today is a perfect combinations that are suitable for clearing the backlog through Aug 07. It consists of following conditions.
1. Portings low
2. PWMB impact none.
3. 485 processing dates around 31 Oct 2010 (Texas), 02 Dec 2010 (Nebrasca). And 485 split between the two centers is 70-30.
#3 is especially important since it means very less from 2011 will be processed. This chokes up the EB1 and EB2 ROW 485s.

The calculated number tells us that 37% of 2011 485s will be processed. Trackitt confirms for EB1. For EB2 trackitt shows that it will be 50%.

So varying the number betwee 37% and 50% .... at higher end it will blow past Aug 2007. At lower end it will be Jun 2007 or something.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

bhayzone,

I agree absolutely with Q.

42k is probably the magic number.

Most dependents that have never had a chance to file I-485, like PWMB, won't have time to be approved this FY.

So, with IC starting with 5.6k allocation, spillover of 37.4k is needed to clear the current backlog.

That is a tall order and needs everything to come in at the top end of expectations - something like:

EB4 -- 8.0
EB1 - 20.0
EB2 -- 9.4
Tot - 37.4

and some of those are looking quite tight.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Spec I am sure you meant EB5 below. And I would agree. But may be I would reduce that to 6K.

What we see today is a perfect combinations that are suitable for clearing the backlog through Aug 07. It consists of following conditions.
1. Portings low
2. PWMB impact none.
3. 485 processing dates around 31 Oct 2010 (Texas), 02 Dec 2010 (Nebrasca). And 485 split between the two centers is 70-30.
#3 is especially important since it means very less from 2011 will be processed. This chokes up the EB1 and EB2 ROW 485s.

The calculated number tells us that 37% of 2011 485s will be processed. Trackitt confirms for EB1. For EB2 trackitt shows that it will be 50%.

So varying the number betwee 37% and 50% .... at higher end it will blow past Aug 2007. At lower end it will be Jun 2007 or something.

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While all this looks good for this year - its going to be not so good year for SOFAD next year. But on lighter note people one needs to remember that people with Jan - Jul 07 PD are lot of luckiest people. :) . So no wonder everything going right with those PDs. Good luck guys.

Hi All,

Need some suggestion.

We have a pending I-485 (EB3 03/2006) filied July 2007 as myself as primary & my husband as dependent. My husband also has his own approved I-140 (EB2 06/20/2007) . Based on the current Visa Movements I guess we have some chances of being current by end of this fiscal year.

The question I have is if my husbands date become current is there any possibility for us to interfile the I-140 between spouse??? (Is it a good option)

The lawyers are not ready to file secondary I-485 due to which we missed the concurrent filing during July 2007 :( . If interfiling is not an option then should we withdraw the existing I-485 & file a new one. If we do so how long it will take for us to get the GC. I am just concerned that if it retrogress then once again the waiting time will a long one.

Please advice.

Thanks,
mvinayam

I do not know about interfiling. However, I am certain that even if the dates retrogress they won't go prior to May 2007 for EB2I. You will certainly get your GC in 2012 cycle if your husband can file a 485.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mvinayam

Hi All,

Need some suggestion.

We have a pending I-485 (EB3 03/2006) filied July 2007 as myself as primary & my husband as dependent. My husband also has his own approved I-140 (EB2 06/20/2007) . Based on the current Visa Movements I guess we have some chances of being current by end of this fiscal year.

The question I have is if my husbands date become current is there any possibility for us to interfile the I-140 between spouse??? (Is it a good option)

The lawyers are not ready to file secondary I-485 due to which we missed the concurrent filing during July 2007 :( . If interfiling is not an option then should we withdraw the existing I-485 & file a new one. If we do so how long it will take for us to get the GC. I am just concerned that if it retrogress then once again the waiting time will a long one.

Please advice.

Thanks,
mvinayam

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Hi Guys,
Any chance that 17May 07 will be reached by the end of this quarter. :confused: