EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

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03-13-2018, 08:09 AM
EB3Iwaiting

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...pril-2018.html

EB2-I -- 22DEC08
EB3-I -- 01FEB08

EB1 China and India retrogress to 01JAN12 (effectively Unavailable)

This is amazing! 13 month movement to EB3I! Finally, JUSTICE! EB1 retrogressing means their quota is full and hopefully GCs won't be reallocated to them. EB3I moving all the way to Feb 08 means CO is building inventory. He expects good SO from EB3ROW and wants to allocate those to EB3I. He is giving enough time so that GCs remain in EB3 this year.

YT's prediction was correct! If not for the misallocation over the past years, this should have happened few years ago, just as he had predicted!
03-13-2018, 08:36 AM
texas_

Guys what do you think of EB2 I moving forward this year?
03-13-2018, 08:38 AM
texas_

Hope EB2 I would also move during this summer
03-13-2018, 08:44 AM
EB2-03252009

how abt EB2I? will it move at the same snail pace of 1 week ??? any chances of SO to move it till April 2009?
03-13-2018, 09:39 AM
HarepathekaIntezar

Quote:

Originally Posted by EB2-03252009

how abt EB2I? will it move at the same snail pace of 1 week ??? any chances of SO to move it till April 2009?

I would say so. Till EB21 and EB3I sync up. Only a EB2I and EB3I sync up makes sense. Any variance between the 2 Categories does not make sense.
03-13-2018, 09:49 AM
redsox2009

I feel pity for China folks.

EB3 Date is greater than EB2 which is greater than EB1.

EB3 is 01Jun15
EB2 is 01Aug14
EB1 is 01Jan12

Pretty sure that will occur to Indian Folks.
03-13-2018, 09:50 AM
HarepathekaIntezar

Quote:

Originally Posted by HarepathekaIntezar

If the Inventory as of Jan 2018 is accurate, here is my calculations and estimates:
a)EB3 Total Inventory = 17,200
b)Add trend filings in the next 4 months = 1000*4=4,000

Note: that USCIS takes at least 6 months to approve an EB Petition after filing.

Total Inventory that is available to USCIS to Approve before 30th September a+b = 21,200
Total Visa number available in the 8 months = (40,000/12)*8 = 26,300

ALL Pending EB3I will be cleared this year! If CO does not aggressively move EB3I Final Action dates (through June 2008), lot of EB3 Visa numbers will be wasted and be given to EB2

Looks like this prediction came out true!!
03-13-2018, 09:51 AM
bluelabel

With April bulletin , EB1 retrogression for china means EB3 China priority date is ahead of both EB2 China and EB1 China. EB3C is ahead of EB2C and EB2C is ahead of EB1 China. Logically this makes no sense.
03-13-2018, 09:57 AM
srimurthy

Quote:

Originally Posted by bluelabel

With April bulletin , EB1 retrogression for china means EB3 China priority date is ahead of both EB2 China and EB1 China. EB3C is ahead of EB2C and EB2C is ahead of EB1 China. Logically this makes no sense.

I guess it makes complete sense when we look at the aspect that the qualifications and criteria are messed up for EB1 approvals.
03-13-2018, 10:39 AM
iatiam

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...pril-2018.html

EB2-I -- 22DEC08
EB3-I -- 01FEB08

EB1 China and India retrogress to 01JAN12 (effectively Unavailable)

This is indeed great news for EB3I. Hopefully more to come as well. My own hypothesis is that there is not much demand in 2008 for EB3 due to slow movement of EB3 prior to that as well as great recession. No numbers to prove it.

Congratulations to everyone!

Iatiam
03-13-2018, 11:45 AM
suninphx

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...pril-2018.html

EB2-I -- 22DEC08
EB3-I -- 01FEB08

EB1 China and India retrogress to 01JAN12 (effectively Unavailable)

Good to see nice forward movement of dates for EB3I. Congratulations to all those who have become current after a decade of wait.
03-13-2018, 12:34 PM
GCdreamz

Quote:

Originally Posted by GCdreamz

Spec/qesehmk/imdeng, So we should be hope for
1. EB2I/EB3I - Dates movement in Q3 rather than in Q4 for full allocation and SO (to avoid mis allocation) right?
2. Cut off Date for EB1 as early as possible (in Q3).
3. How much spill over are you expecting this FY? I am expecting total of 9K visas to EB2I & EB3I.
4. Do you think Jan I485 inventory is correct? The numbers looked inconsistent from previous inventory data. If the numbers are correct and FD dates are cleared in FY then EB2 inventory of 7500 for 2008 will be cleared and will give hope for better dates movement in next FY or next next FY (sad but that sounds like hope).

Thanks!!!

Happy to See First & Second points becoming True. Hope to see SO & Dates movement for EB2 too. I am expecting EB2I & EB3I to have same dates by end of FY18
03-13-2018, 12:39 PM
GCdreamz

Quote:

Originally Posted by iatiam

This is indeed great news for EB3I. Hopefully more to come as well. My own hypothesis is that there is not much demand in 2008 for EB3 due to slow movement of EB3 prior to that as well as great recession. No numbers to prove it.

Congratulations to everyone!

Iatiam

Yes, EB3I to EB2I upgrades in 2008 + Recession may lead to less demand in EB3I and if there is good SO then Dates might advance to Feb 09 or Same as EB2I.
03-13-2018, 12:52 PM
HarepathekaIntezar

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...pril-2018.html

EB2-I -- 22DEC08
EB3-I -- 01FEB08

EB1 China and India retrogress to 01JAN12 (effectively Unavailable)

Looks like CO used the 'visibility' provided by the USCIS cooked up '2018 January Pending Inventory'

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...nuary_2018.pdf

in prescribing the dates for April2018 VB! Hopefully the USCIS can put in place an accurate calculation of the pending inventory. Given its record, USCIS is more likely to suspend the Pending Inventory Report entirely rather than enhance the accuracy of that report.
03-13-2018, 01:22 PM
imdeng

Finally - some rational actions by CO! Some long awaiting good news for EB3-I folks.
03-13-2018, 04:42 PM
YTeleven

Quote:

Originally Posted by yteleven

here is my take on recent 485 inventory report.
The system is correcting itself, if i were co i would move the eb3-i dates to mid 2008 and make both eb3-india & eb2-india current dates equall.
This is january's report today is march 5th i strongly believe the system might have already put the co in tight spot by now.
If he don't act now he will end up wasting 5k+ eb3 visas this year which might cost him heavily.

Finally!!!
03-13-2018, 05:00 PM
rock581

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...pril-2018.html

EB2-I -- 22DEC08
EB3-I -- 01FEB08

EB1 China and India retrogress to 01JAN12 (effectively Unavailable)

Another good thing that no one is talking about is the steady march of EB3P to Current. Once EB3P goes current EB3I will get a much bigger chunk of GC's.
03-13-2018, 06:35 PM
altek001

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...pril-2018.html

EB2-I -- 22DEC08
EB3-I -- 01FEB08

EB1 China and India retrogress to 01JAN12 (effectively Unavailable)

I am thinking the recent Shakeup at state department (firing of rex tillerson) may also have prompted officials to do their job well. Just my thoughts; could be wrong.
03-13-2018, 09:49 PM
newyorker123

Have a question: In the visa bulletin, the following is mentioned regarding EB1 retrogression to Jan 2012.

"Should the level of worldwide demand for E1 numbers decline, there could be some future movement in this date prior to the end of the fiscal year."

Is there any chance of this happening ? Move forward from Jan 2012 to a slightly later date ? Or is this all set until October 1st for sure ? Any idea, Gurus ?

EB1C is totally messing up EB1A/B folks.
03-13-2018, 11:59 PM
hope21

Thanks for the reply Spec. When you had said consequences of bringing EB3I to 2008 Jan , then I had a follow up question (why CO is not doing in a planned manner like moving dates by 2/3 months for EB3I each month till it catches up Jan 2008, the Filing date . I chose not to ask you that because the discussion was not going anywhere. We had different point of views, but I liked our healthy disagreement.

Well, that's past now, Mr. CO has proved me wrong (which I love though). My gut feeling was he will do the same mistake as he did last time on purpose. Good that he acted in a rationale manner this time. Congrats to all the EB3I folks who are current.

On a lighter note - I think Mr. CO reads our posts and finally he got convinced and moved dates. On an even more lighter note - I think Spec, you are an insider/like secret services working in CO's team who actually is very logical n efficient in number crunching and gives CO the true picture of everything/our pain points/difficulties, its just that CO listens to you only sometimes..... ha ha.... my sense of humor might not be that good, just wrote it on a lighter side.

Anyway, Congrats again to EB3I folks and good luck to EB2I folks. At least we are seeing some light at the end of tunnel now.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

hope21,

Read my previous post about the DOS/DHS dynamics at present.
03-14-2018, 09:54 AM
imdeng

Last time CO did inventory building (in 2012, for EB2I), he did it in several stages and went way further than what was strictly necessary for immediate needs. That allowed a whole bunch of us to file 485 and get EADs - made for a much simpler (though so so long!) wait since 2012.

Lets hope that CO will continue with the same approach and moves EB3I further in coming months. In any case, density in EB3I in 2008/2009 should be pretty sparse given all the porting and 2008/09 recession - so might not take too much of a stretch to get EB3I to end of 2009 (just for 485/EAD, nor expecting approvals so far down).
03-14-2018, 10:07 AM
iatiam

Quote:

Originally Posted by imdeng

Last time CO did inventory building (in 2012, for EB2I), he did it in several stages and went way further than what was strictly necessary for immediate needs. That allowed a whole bunch of us to file 485 and get EADs - made for a much simpler (though so so long!) wait since 2012.

Lets hope that CO will continue with the same approach and moves EB3I further in coming months. In any case, density in EB3I in 2008/2009 should be pretty sparse given all the porting and 2008/09 recession - so might not take too much of a stretch to get EB3I to end of 2009 (just for 485/EAD, nor expecting approvals so far down).

Let's drink to that!

Looking at Permchecker.com, the following are the approved PERM numbers:

2008:39K
2009: 38K
2010: 78K
2011: 51K
2012: 57K
2013: 32K
2014: 70K
2015: 79K
2016: 113K
2017: 79K

If this scenario happens, it will open up the possibility of reverse porting from EB2I to EB3I and this may lead to very interesting visa movements.

Iatiam
03-14-2018, 12:29 PM
anuprab

so happy for all EB3I folks. Hope the wait ends soon.
03-14-2018, 12:33 PM
anuprab

EB3Iwaiting, your wait is probably going to be over soon.
03-14-2018, 12:45 PM
imdeng

Perm numbers from 2014 onwards (and 2010) are staggeringly large. Only saving grade is that ~60% of them are EB-IC so it does not affect spillover.

EB2I to EB3I reverse porting is going to happen pretty soon. It seems likely for PD >= 2010.

Quote:

Originally Posted by iatiam

Let's drink to that!

Looking at Permchecker.com, the following are the approved PERM numbers:

2008:39K
2009: 38K
2010: 78K
2011: 51K
2012: 57K
2013: 32K
2014: 70K
2015: 79K
2016: 113K
2017: 79K

If this scenario happens, it will open up the possibility of reverse porting from EB2I to EB3I and this may lead to very interesting visa movements.

Iatiam
03-14-2018, 01:09 PM
dubnis

Positive Movement for EB3I

Quote:

Originally Posted by iatiam

Let's drink to that!

Looking at Permchecker.com, the following are the approved PERM numbers:

2008:39K
2009: 38K
2010: 78K
2011: 51K
2012: 57K
2013: 32K
2014: 70K
2015: 79K
2016: 113K
2017: 79K

If this scenario happens, it will open up the possibility of reverse porting from EB2I to EB3I and this may lead to very interesting visa movements.

Iatiam

Amigo!
Are these PERM filing cases for all EB categories or just combination of EB2/EB3 worldwide!?
03-14-2018, 01:16 PM
imdeng

EB1s don't do PERM - so its EB2/3.

Quote:

Originally Posted by dubnis

Amigo!
Are these PERM filing cases for all EB categories or just combination of EB2/EB3 worldwide!?
03-14-2018, 01:32 PM
newyorker123

Quote:

Originally Posted by newyorker123

Have a question: In the visa bulletin, the following is mentioned regarding EB1 retrogression to Jan 2012.

"Should the level of worldwide demand for E1 numbers decline, there could be some future movement in this date prior to the end of the fiscal year."

Is there any chance of this happening ? Move forward from Jan 2012 to a slightly later date ? Or is this all set until October 1st for sure ? Any idea, Gurus ?

EB1C is totally messing up EB1A/B folks.

Any thoughts on this ? Any chance of the dates for EB1 moving little forward before October 1st ? Was going to file EB1A/B in next 1-2 months, with concurrent I485. Now need to re-plan.
03-14-2018, 01:44 PM
hope21

Newyorker, No one can answer that for sure. But if I can read between the lines on what CO stated, I think there is high probability (my gut feeling, but no one knows whether that will happen or when that will happen for sure, thanks).
03-14-2018, 02:00 PM
rock581

Quote:

Originally Posted by imdeng

Last time CO did inventory building (in 2012, for EB2I), he did it in several stages and went way further than what was strictly necessary for immediate needs. That allowed a whole bunch of us to file 485 and get EADs - made for a much simpler (though so so long!) wait since 2012.

Lets hope that CO will continue with the same approach and moves EB3I further in coming months. In any case, density in EB3I in 2008/2009 should be pretty sparse given all the porting and 2008/09 recession - so might not take too much of a stretch to get EB3I to end of 2009 (just for 485/EAD, nor expecting approvals so far down).

I agree with you imdeng. The numbers also point to the same.

For EB3 GC's only, lets assume USCIS issued 10K quarterly quota in Q1 and we have 17K pending inventory as of Jan. So, USCIS can at best issue 27K GC's for EB3. Lets assume 30K to get to a round number. Now CO needs to find 10K of EB3I by moving the dates.

From July'07 to Feb'08, we may have a max of 3K EB3I applicants that will apply in April. So, if CO and USCIS are talking early April, CO will have to go much deeper to utilize the 7-10K extra GC's.

Is there a flaw somewhere in my calculation?
03-14-2018, 02:15 PM
bluelabel

Quote:

Originally Posted by newyorker123

Any thoughts on this ? Any chance of the dates for EB1 moving little forward before October 1st ? Was going to file EB1A/B in next 1-2 months, with concurrent I485. Now need to re-plan.

It may move a year or 2 if there are any otherwise unused visas left in EB1 row(and/or in EB3 if CO cannot allocate all unused visas to EB3I) but highly unlikely that EB1I going to become 'C ' before Oct 1st 2018. However USCIS might accept dates for filing at least one month before Oct 1st, which may allow you to file I-485.
03-14-2018, 04:21 PM
Immigo

Quote:

Originally Posted by newyorker123

Any thoughts on this ? Any chance of the dates for EB1 moving little forward before October 1st ? Was going to file EB1A/B in next 1-2 months, with concurrent I485. Now need to re-plan.

If you can expedite it and file before March 31st i.e. before the April bulletin takes effect, you will be able to file concurrently. Good luck!
03-14-2018, 07:27 PM
newyorker123

I have an EB2 priority date of 2012, so a few months move will also help - lets see. Cannot expedite it by the end of this month. Will not be able to do a good job.
03-15-2018, 04:56 AM
newyorker123

Quote:

Originally Posted by Immigo

If you can expedite it and file before March 31st i.e. before the April bulletin takes effect, you will be able to file concurrently. Good luck!

I have a follow-up question. Apart from getting an earlier EAD/AP, are there any more advantages of filing hurriedly before March 31st ? As I plan to remain with my H1, an earlier EAD/AP is of not immense use.
In any case they will not adjudicate the I485 before whenever my priority date becomes current. Pls correct me if I am wrong.
My priority date is in 2012(missed it by few months), and I am planning to file EB1A I140/I485 concurrently.
03-15-2018, 10:24 AM
HarepathekaIntezar

EB3I Demand Generation after April 2018 VB

Quote:

Originally Posted by HarepathekaIntezar

If that is the case, then CO can push Final Action dates to Jan 2008 and let USCIS deal with the fall out, which may not be much as they are already generating RFE for Aug 2007. At least it will give both USCIS and DOS a handle on the demand within 3 months of advancing the Dates.

Quote:

If the Inventory as of Jan 2018 is accurate, here is my calculations and estimates:
a)EB3 Total Inventory = 17,200
b)Add trend filings in the next 4 months = 1000*4=4,000

Note: that USCIS takes at least 6 months to approve an EB Petition after filing.

Total Inventory that is available to USCIS to Approve before 30th September a+b = 21,200
Total Visa number available in the 8 months = (40,000/12)*8 = 26,300

ALL Pending EB3I will be cleared this year! If CO does not aggressively move EB3I Final Action dates (through June 2008), lot of EB3 Visa numbers will be wasted and be given to EB2

Based on Pending Inventory Report again, I have estimated the new EB3I demand to be around 1,800 (300/Month*6 Months). I don't think that is sufficient to soak up the EB3 numbers given the very anaemic Demand from ROW. I still think CO should push the EB3I Date to Dec 31, 2008 in May VB to generate enough demand to absorb the current years visas. Maybe even that may not be sufficient.

@spectator, what do you say?
03-15-2018, 12:39 PM
imdeng

Quote:

Originally Posted by HarepathekaIntezar

Based on Pending Inventory Report again, I have estimated the new EB3I demand to be around 1,800 (300/Month*6 Months). I don't think that is sufficient to soak up the EB3 numbers given the very anaemic Demand from ROW. I still think CO should push the EB3I Date to Dec 31, 2008 in May VB to generate enough demand to absorb the current years visas. Maybe even that may not be sufficient.

@spectator, what do you say?

If that is the case then EB2I folks should be downgrading to EB3I right now :-)

Next month: EB2I and EB3I both at 01 JAN 2009.
Month after that: EB2I 15 JAN 2009, EB3I 01 DEC 2009 -> Cue for everyone to start downgrading :-)
03-15-2018, 12:45 PM
iatiam

Quote:

Originally Posted by imdeng

If that is the case then EB2I folks should be downgrading to EB3I right now :-)

Next month: EB2I and EB3I both at 01 JAN 2009.
Month after that: EB2I 15 JAN 2009, EB3I 01 DEC 2009 -> Cue for everyone to start downgrading :-)

Does anyone know how the downgrade process is done? With an August 2009 PD, I am seriously considering this option. Also, what about EB4 and EB5? Any chance they will give spillover this year.

Iatiam
03-15-2018, 01:26 PM
imdeng

Given the EB1 is not C as a category, they are likely to absorb any spillover from EB4/5.

Porting in either direction is essentially a new application - my impression is that it needs a new PERM, I140 - but with older PD. It would take more than a year I would imagine for the process to wrap.

Quote:

Originally Posted by iatiam

Does anyone know how the downgrade process is done? With an August 2009 PD, I am seriously considering this option. Also, what about EB4 and EB5? Any chance they will give spillover this year.

Iatiam
03-15-2018, 01:40 PM
iatiam

Quote:

Originally Posted by imdeng

Given the EB1 is not C as a category, they are likely to absorb any spillover from EB4/5.

Porting in either direction is essentially a new application - my impression is that it needs a new PERM, I140 - but with older PD. It would take more than a year I would imagine for the process to wrap.

This is the first link when you Google. It says PERM is not required,
http://nairlaw.com/blog/posts/12

Iatiam
03-15-2018, 02:11 PM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by iatiam

Does anyone know how the downgrade process is done? With an August 2009 PD, I am seriously considering this option. Also, what about EB4 and EB5? Any chance they will give spillover this year.

Iatiam

I followed the Chinese forums (with terrible translation) when the China downgrading phenomenon first started.

From memory:

1) Most Chinese already had an EB2 I-140 approved with the same company they were working for.

2) The company used the original PERM certification used for the EB2 I-140 approval to apply for an I-140 under EB3.

3) A bit fuzzy on this, but I don't think the new I-140 can be Premium Processed, because the original PERM certification is not attached. You'd need to check if this has changed.

4) A request to Interfile the basis of an existing I-485 from EB2 to EB3 must be made in writing to USCIS. It can only be made when the PD for the new category is current.

5) An I-485 can only be attached to a single I-140 at a time (EB2 or EB3 in this case).

6) If you wanted to switch back to EB2, then a new interfiling letter to USCIS requesting this would be required.

7) There's no concept of the I-485 being approved on the first category to become current.
Many Chinese have previously bounced between EB2 and EB3, chasing the best Final Action Date.

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