I don't know if this is correct or not.
http://vbimmigration.wordpress.com/2...e-visa-office/
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I don't know if this is correct or not.
http://vbimmigration.wordpress.com/2...e-visa-office/
Based on what we know now has happened for this FY till this point, when can I expect the dates for EB2-I to move? As per the above post ref. by helooo, it looks like any fwd movement isn't likely till Aug/Sep '14. My priority date is in the last week of July '2008 & I'll be a first time filer. So, what are the chances that the dates are going to move ahead early enough for me to get a approval in FY 2014? Do you see any possibility of USCIS moving the dates back to 2008 & keeping them open for a month or two in FY 2015?
So - in terms of date movements - it has become a fixed pattern for EB2I that the dates move in last 2-3 months i.e. Jul-Sep. The only year way the dates will move anytime sooner will be when the USCIS approaches the cliff like the 2007 one. In other words the EB2I dates were moved upto May 2010 ... so the point in time when USCIS gets closer to clearing all the case till May 2010 then (or slightly before that) they will again move dates for EB2I to generate demand and then again retro back. Until then we will see a forward movement in last 3 months and then a year long retrogression.
Got it, qesehmk but do you see the fwd movement being sustained for a couple of mos to clear out as many pending aos like how it happened this fall. Ideally, I would want it to move in May as I may 've to go to India in Aug for a family event. So, if things move in May then I could probably 've the EAD before I leave. This way I'm assured of an entry back as I would 've to go for visa stamping if I were to leave in aug.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Yes I do think that once the dates move they will stay there for 2 if not for 3 months.Quote:
Originally Posted by IsItWorthTheTrouble
Any idea when priority date Feb 09 will become current again. I have already filed my aos. Thanks in advance for your inputs.
I think it has a good chance to be current this year. You can consider that early Feb 09 will be current with a chance of 55% (similar to June 2008 for last FY).Quote:
Originally Posted by sairam09
However, whether people with PDs in 2009 will get greened or not is a separate issue. I think early feb 2009 have good chances of being current but not so good chances of being greened in this FY. IF they follow the pattern from last year then dates might stay current for first 2 months of FY 2015 and that might give a good chance to 2009 candidates to get greened.
My priority date is Sept 25 2009. Any idea when it would become current. I already filed my I-485.
mvraju: Sept 25 2009 should take till August 2015 but I guess anything is possible when it comes to date movement. Stay positive and hope for the best.
I had a question as to whether we have to be in the US when dates are current in order to be able to receive a green card. I am a professor and I have to travel on a research project in June and July and my PD is Oct 2008, don't want to miss the boat if I get current this year. Also, if I get an RFE I want to be able to respond as quickly as possible. Thank you!
Hey Friends,
Immigrant Visas Issued at Consular Posts and Adjustments of Status subject to numerical limitations Fy-2013 is available now ....http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/...ort-TableV.pdf
The Total FB used is around 215,753 out of 226k, so no more extras from FB other than already announced.
I could see only 17193 EB2I total visas have been distributed in FY 2013, earlier during AILA members meeting Mr.CO said around 15K were from already pre-adjudicated cases, PD movement to June 2008 justifies this in the I-485 inventory.
Having said that leaves the porting demand cleared could be around 2k (!!!).
Point me where I went wrong.
Hi Kanmani,
Thanks for your brainstorming!. Can you tell us where it to take us during the forward movement?
Regards,
Sai
Perm approvals are at least 8 months backlogged, is the only information available now. It is too early to predict at this point.Quote:
Originally Posted by sairam09
Eb3I received a total of 7816 :)
Is this the effect of Spillover Fall across ?
Probably because EB3ROW date movements were not sufficiently aggressive.
p.s. - I also noticed EB3 issued 3K extra visas which resulted in overall visas being issued 3K more than planned limit which was 158K for FY 2013.
So I guess the revised answer is - somehow EB3 lapped 3K more. And EB3I turned out to be the beneficiary because EB3ROW couldn't utilize them all inspite of all rapid dates advancements.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Q/Kanmani
So is it safe to conclude that all the moment in FY 2013 was due to extra 18K FB VISA. Other categories (EB-1, EB2-ROW, EB4 & EB5) did not provide significant spillovers.
At a simplistic level that can be said. But there are obvious nuances to that. But I guess the key message from EB2 category is that - EB2ROW showed extremely strong demand (perhaps the EB3->2 porting is also happening in EB2) and that restricted EB2I. Just as an example S Korea alone received 7K EB2 visas. Overall EB2 received 63K against its quota of 40K. So obviously EB4/5/1 contributed approx 18K. So spillover was there. But ROW EB2 didn't provide any whatsoever. If anything they ate into the spillover received from EB1/4/5.Quote:
Originally Posted by rosharma
I agree. But to the disappointment, they have utilized a part of it and wasted 1488, the total Worldwide EB3 FY'13 limit was 45,188 , but the total usage under EB3 was 43740.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Hi Kanmani,
What would be the reasonable Guesstimate, Where we will be traversing this year...
Regards,
Sai
That's right. So including the 2013 increased quota EB3 actually underutilized.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Preference
CatogoryEB Worldwide
limit FY'13EB Visas
Total FY'13EB1 45,188 39,058 EB2 45,188 63,461 EB3 45,188 43,740 Eb4 11,218 6,446 Eb5 11,218 8,564 Total 158,000 161,269
158K to 161K ??????? How could it even possible ?
It's possible Kanmani. If you carefully read the language about annual numerical limits - you can see that the overall limit is worded as "at least". Thus indicating that the law allows DOS to increase the limit at its discretion - although the law intends DOS to stay within limit.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Agree. I think those extras went to South Korea in a way to compensate the war tensions.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
That's no surprise. Given EB2ROW were retro for 3 months in FY 2012. On bright side - EB2ROW may not have consumed as much spillover as initially thought on this forum.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Please find the attachment with the estimation of EB visa allocations for India in 2014.
I did a similar estimation last year and surprisingly it was inline with the today's visa stats released by DOS.
This estimation is based on current statistics and some fundamentals around the EB categories for I,C & ROW.
Thanks! :)Quote:
Originally Posted by YTeleven
Thanks! :)
Quote:
Originally Posted by YTeleven
So you feel that dates will move Until july 2009 for FY 2014.
Quote:
Originally Posted by YTeleven
I spoke to my lawyer today and he said there's just no way a PD of Oct 2008 can be current this July/August. I guess we'll wait and see what happens, the stats on this site tell a different story.
People on this blog are really well informed about various procedures but for those of us less familiar with rules, if you are issued a green card when you are out of the country both AP and H1B become null and void. I guess the green card will need to be mailed to you to be able to reenter at the US.
Most of the times the lawyers want to not listen to you and hence try and put you off. So I would say that his statement is not realistic.Quote:
Originally Posted by triplet
However, I do not agree to many predictions going around indicating that the dates can move to Mar 2009.
Supply:
EB5 will not give much spillover
EB1 will not give any spillover
EB4 might give 5k
Family based GC will give 10k to EB and thus EB2 might get around 6k from there
I believe, EB2I would get 11k spillover and 3k is the annual quota.
Demand:
I believe that most of the 3k annual quota is used up and has cleared most of the backlog until June 2008. However, the I-485 inventory that shall be soon published will give us a better picture.
Below is what I expect from the Jan I-485 inventory:
Demand before Jan 2009 --> 10k
Demand for Jan 2009 --> 1.3k
Demand for Feb 2009 --> 1.3k
Demand for Mar 2009 --> 1.4k
I feel with 1k supply, everything before Jan 2009 should be cleared and dates should move into 2009. However, with the 1k supply remaining, the CO might put dates at mid-end Jan 2009 as he knows that Jan 2009 itself has a demand of 1.3k.
Its is possible if we see extremely low porting numbers this year. I'm guessing it will be 5000 this year due to various reasons.Quote:
Originally Posted by shreyasai2004
If that is true then original EB2-I applications will get around 15K visas as per above estimation and this will take us into 2009 levels.
Here is the past 3 years porting numbers:
------------------------------------------------------------------
EB3-I Porting Estimation----| 2011 | 2012 | 2013 |
------------------------------------------------------------------
Actual Reduction in Demand| 5950 | 6450 | 15600 |
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Actual allocation of Visas----| 4002 | 2804 | 7816 |
------------------------------------------------------------------
Approx. Porting numbers----| 1948 | 3646 | 7784 |
------------------------------------------------------------------
Jagan - why is your EB1 spillover estimate so conservative?Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
Do you think 5000 porters fall on the lower end ?Quote:
Originally Posted by YTeleven
What is your take on splitting the porters from the total of 17k EB2I approvals?(FY13)
Sun,Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
I do not think my estimation of EB1 is conservative. I am thinking EB1 will use 40,500 out of the 42,910 available to them. FY2013 numbers show they used up 39,058.
Family based 10k extra visas will be distributed as follows:
EB1 --> 2910
EB2 --> 2910
EB3 --> 2910
EB4 --> 635
EB5 --> 635
EB1 will be having approximately 42,910 available visas. Remember that 2,910 is coming from Family based. I feel they will completely use up the original 40,000 available to them. There might be around 2500 that they do not use. However, I have already accounted those 2500 in the total spillover that I gave to EB2I from FB.
EB2I will get 6k spillover from FB.
2.5k from EB1
3k of its own
1k from EB4 and EB5.
Hi YTeleven,Quote:
Originally Posted by YTeleven
Thanks for the data.
The data you provided only considers the people porting from EB3 to EB2 that had earlier filed I-485 in EB3.
Did you consider the fact that post Aug 2007 there are many many EB3s with approved I-140 that have already ported to EB2. These candidates do not show up in the demand data. Technically, the porting number was more than 7784 in FY2013.
A few more interesting observations from the 2013 visa allocations: (In the order of importance and implications)
1. Overall consumption was 3K more than initial visa allocation of 158K
2. EB2 consumption was 63K i.e. approx 18K more than quota. Thus 18K came from other categories.
3. EB2ROW consumption was 36K. That is huge. Plus EB2P received 4.4K and EB2-SKorea received 7K. This doesn't bode well for 2014
4. EB3 overall consumption was 41K which was 3K less than its quota. However EB3I received 7K and inventory reduced by 12K. Thus 5K of EB3->2 porting for India was confirmed.
5. EB1 India ate up almost 10K while EB1 china consumed 6K. thus showing healthy demand for EB1 in 2014.
6. EB5 china consumed 6K thus showing healthy future demand for EB5
Overall it is safe to say without the 18K extra visas EB2I would be crushed under all this demand and there would be very little movement. Fundamentally there are several -ve trends going on here.
1. EB1 and 5 has healthy demand.
2. EB2ROW has very strong demand - probably it includes EB3 porting.
3. EB2I has almost 5K of EB3I porting.
All of this means EB2I will move quite slow in future years. If the employment environment improves then EB2ROW will add even more pressure. Sorry for the bad news .... but unfortunately that's the truth.
Any critique or a different perspective is very welcome. I would be glad to be wrong on all of these.
p.s. - Forgot to say but EB3ROW as well as EB3I has solid good trends going on. Basically EB3ROW should become current in couple of years from now - perhaps as soon as next. Whereas EB2I should move at least 6 months this year if the porting is proceeding at 5K/year. For EB2C the situation is ridiculous and they might want to reconsider filing in EB3!!
Q, I have a problem with point no.4.
The inventory had a total of approximately 15k pending demand , No big bunch of pending crowd with PDs earlier than June 2008 brought forward to FY'14 , which shows the movement was no meaningless. Where do we insert the porting demand into this 17K actuals scenario? How can you justify the CoD movement to June 2008?
Kanmani -
2012 EB3I Inventory - 47354 (A)
2013 EB3I Inventory - 34336 (B)
2013 EB3I Approvals - 7816 (C)
2013 EB3I Portings + Denials - ? (D)
A - B = C + D thus implying D = 5202.
Makes sense?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Hi Jagan,Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
I don't want to consider it as those are NOT many but insignificant numbers as the period we are considering is between Aug'07 to Dec'08 and all my calculations are approximations.
Let me come to that porting figure from a different equation as shown below:
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Oct2012 EB2I Inventory data before Jan2009--| 22923
Oct2013 EB2I Inventory data before Jan2009--| 13645
Reduction of above data in FY13 (Difference)--| 9278(B)
Actual Visas allocated for EB2-I in FY13--------| 17193(A)
Approx. Porting numbers in above Visas--------| 7915(A-B)
----------------------------------------------------------------
I think I was not clear in framing the question. My Bad!Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
How does that 5000 porting fit into the approvals ?
Movement to June 2008 - 15K
Porting - 5K
Total - 20K
Actuals - 17K
So the evidence of 5K porting is coming from EB3 data. I guess your question is how do we fit that into EB2 numbers right?
So as you said ...
I would do it as follows (please plug in the numbers as I haven't checked them specifically for EB2).
EB2I 2012 Inventory - A
EB2I 2013 Inventory - B
EB2I porting 2013 - 5000
EB2I denials plus withdrawals 2013 - D
EB2I approvals 2013 - 17K
A + 5000 - B - D = 17K
That's how those numbers will fit together.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani