EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

(Posting in the main thread as well for increased visibility)

Folks - I have created a petition that will send emails (for free) as well as printed letters (for a fee) to your respective senators.

http://www.petition2congress.com/566...rants-hr-3012/

This is a variant of the **'s petition - I have taken their content and edited it and included some thoughts of my own. To me, it reads better than the ** petition. I would urge you to spend the $9 it takes to send a printed version of the letter to the Senators - it definitely has more impact than just an email.

The link allows you to edit the petition before sending if you so wish. If you are making changes, then please share them with me so that I can collate the useful changes and edit the original petition with them.

signed it. :)

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Originally Posted by imdeng

(Posting in the main thread as well for increased visibility)

Folks - I have created a petition that will send emails (for free) as well as printed letters (for a fee) to your respective senators.

http://www.petition2congress.com/566...rants-hr-3012/

This is a variant of the **'s petition - I have taken their content and edited it and included some thoughts of my own. To me, it reads better than the ** petition. I would urge you to spend the $9 it takes to send a printed version of the letter to the Senators - it definitely has more impact than just an email.

The link allows you to edit the petition before sending if you so wish. If you are making changes, then please share them with me so that I can collate the useful changes and edit the original petition with them.

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Signed the petition.

Question on filing for adjustment of status - My lawyer sent in my I-485 application yesterday to Texas Service Center. Are I-485 processing times impacted by which service center you file with? I know there might be minor differences in processing times, but just wanted to get other's POV as well.

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Originally Posted by imdeng

(Posting in the main thread as well for increased visibility)

Folks - I have created a petition that will send emails (for free) as well as printed letters (for a fee) to your respective senators.

http://www.petition2congress.com/566...rants-hr-3012/

This is a variant of the **'s petition - I have taken their content and edited it and included some thoughts of my own. To me, it reads better than the ** petition. I would urge you to spend the $9 it takes to send a printed version of the letter to the Senators - it definitely has more impact than just an email.

The link allows you to edit the petition before sending if you so wish. If you are making changes, then please share them with me so that I can collate the useful changes and edit the original petition with them.

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Guys - When should we expect actual GC in hand for Nov 2011 filers at TSC

Yup it makes a difference in the processing times - and unfortunately Texas is the slower one I believe.

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Originally Posted by tometukuri

My lawyer sent in my I-485 application yesterday to Texas Service Center. Are I-485 processing times impacted by which service center you file with? I know there might be minor differences in processing times, but just wanted to get other's POV as well.

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Originally Posted by imdeng

Yup it makes a difference in the processing times - and unfortunately Texas is the slower one I believe.

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Imdeng - what's with the hideous avatar picture :)

Not hideous - winged helmet - the symbol of Wolverine Football (Univ of Michigan, one PhD and two Masters from there in my house :-)

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Originally Posted by vizcard

Imdeng - what's with the hideous avatar picture :)

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Originally Posted by nomphy

Guys - When should we expect actual GC in hand for Nov 2011 filers at TSC

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nomphy,
TSC is pretty slow, i would count at-least three months for EAD/AP and 6 months for GC.

Veni

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Originally Posted by SaturnRing

As Nishant said, Good luck to all of us :)

Each day till we have the Jan bulletin public is going to be pretty painful for me. Missed the PD by 2 weeks and I am praying to all gods and good spirits for a forward movement in the upcoming bulletin :)

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SaturnRing, yours is done deal with or without HR 3012.

It has overwritten the previous version for 2010 and can be found here

I haven't really looked at it in detail yet, but I did notice the numbers for EB5 have increased by +52.7%. Most other categories have fallen slightly.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

It has overwritten the previous version for 2010 and can be found here

I haven't really looked at it in detail yet, but I did notice the numbers for EB5 have increased by +52.7%. Most other categories have fallen slightly.

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Spec, on people waiting, in EB categories, for EB2, I see:
India 3,705
China-mainland born 1,053

So does this mean, their current known demand for CP cases for India is 3,705 and China is 1,053, so this should be ideally added to the demand data which next comes up for the Jan VB.

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Originally Posted by imdeng

Not hideous - winged helmet - the symbol of Wolverine Football (Univ of Michigan, one PhD and two Masters from there in my house :-)

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I know what it is. I went to Ohio State :)

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

Spec, on people waiting, in EB categories, for EB2, I see:
India 3,705
China-mainland born 1,053

So does this mean, their current known demand for CP cases for India is 3,705 and China is 1,053, so this should be ideally added to the demand data which next comes up for the Jan VB.

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I don't think you can really use it with the demand data effectively. The NVC data reflects the number of people mentioned on I-140s received to November 2011. Most of the numbers will relate to the period 2008-2011.

The Demand Data includes Documentarily Qualified CP cases, including some in the NVC data. For EB2, the numbers are quite low anyway and AOS cases completely dwarf them.

In further forward looking projections for EB2, they are accounted for, since apart from NIW, they will likely have come through the PERM process.

Trying to make sense of future numbers on the basis of the NVC Waiting List data is an exercise in futility e.g. If CP for EB2 is 2%, then 3.7k EB2-I CP equates to 185k AOS+CP

Clearly that is not correct. Maybe the CP % is set to rise in the future or it represents multiple I-140 having AOS and CP processing or something else.

I do think it is an interesting document and highlights some interesting points, for instance, the numbers of EB3-P (probably Nurses and Physical Therapists who are ineligible for H1B) waiting for an Immigrant Visa and outside the USCIS I-485 figures.

Good luck if you can make more sense of it.

Oh... I took your comment literally... sorry about that :-)

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Originally Posted by vizcard

I know what it is. I went to Ohio State :)

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Originally Posted by vizcard

I know what it is. I went to Ohio State :)

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Originally Posted by imdeng

Oh... I took your comment literally... sorry about that :-)

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imdeng he meant it literally :) How do I know? I went to Michigan State!

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Originally Posted by dec2007

1) With new i140 amendment, will my EAD be delayed? do they approve the i140 and issue EAD?
2) Im from KS, which service center would they apply.

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#1 - No. If at all may be a month or so MAX. There is no reason to be delayed.
#2 - Please google yourself. My guess is Texas.

Q.... Please check ur PM....

So getting back to calculations and predictions, does everyone feel comfortable that we will see a two month move ahead in the Jan VB and a stall or retrogression beyond that till august/ sept (assuming hR3012 gets stuck or worse).

Thanks imdeng for your input. Someone mentioned 3 months for EAD/AP at TSC, which is not bad at all compared to the waiting we did all these years :)

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Originally Posted by imdeng

Yup it makes a difference in the processing times - and unfortunately Texas is the slower one I believe.

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Breaking News:

Just now one my friend with PD 04-AUG-2007 called USCIS for status on his previously opened SR. He spoke with L2 officer and got response saying that "VISA number done for now. Wait for 90 days"..

I am thinking this might be a jerk on coming up VB of Jan,2012

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Originally Posted by polapragada

Breaking News:

Just now one my friend with PD 04-AUG-2007 called USCIS for status on his previously opened SR. He spoke with L2 officer and got response saying that "VISA number done for now. Wait for 90 days"..

I am thinking this might be a jerk on coming up VB of Jan,2012

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I think for now CO is collecting the demand and he is not worried about VISA number availability at this point of time. He is just preparing for next spill over season. Hope he does not consider this news to move the dates further in Jan bulletin.

Does this in anyway indicate that they are now doing quarterly spillovers?

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Originally Posted by polapragada

Breaking News:

Just now one my friend with PD 04-AUG-2007 called USCIS for status on his previously opened SR. He spoke with L2 officer and got response saying that "VISA number done for now. Wait for 90 days"..

I am thinking this might be a jerk on coming up VB of Jan,2012

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I guess many of us agreed that 'definetly' there is quarterly spill over now. And coming to quota - they can give full quota of 'india+chinese+quarterly spill over' ( we cannot guestimate it as it is up to CO to decide, after going through his calculations, rules and his mood), so there should not be any surprise for us to hear that quota for this quarter is done.

Looking at the current trend, My Guess would be that GC will become more favorable to India and Chinese because of increasing millionaires and politicians from above said countries as opposed to past where Europeons use to dominate the Rich+Political front.

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Originally Posted by gchopeful123

Does this in anyway indicate that they are now doing quarterly spillovers?

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if "Wait for 90 days" term was used, not guessed (second hand information some times have guesses), it is clear that Quarterly spillover is already in place. I think we do have some other indications before as well indiating may be there are quarterly spillovers.

Here are my thoughts... If you look at last year's movement, 2011 saw about 12 months (may be 11.5 months) movement. Appears that second part 2007, and early 2008 is about same desity, if not more denser, compared to previous year. So we cannot expect movement beyond March 2008 (may be + or - a month). That being said, CO seems be in the mood of building some inventory (based on what he spoke in the meeting last month). One un-solved puzzle is how much inventory does he want to see? Does HR 3012 have any influence on what CO is thinking? In addition, this is election year. So any from Demcratic party are thinking to show some flexibility, that may help get some support from Indian/Chinese community (2007 Fiasco happend about a year before elections)?? So it all depends on what factors are going to influence forward movement. Hard to guess.... just wait for 3 or 4 more days, you will get better picuture of what is on CO's table, and what is in his mind (you will never get a clear picuture however, and will have same type of questions next month as well).

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Originally Posted by grnwtg

I guess many of us agreed that 'definetly' there is quarterly spill over now. And coming to quota - they can give full quota of 'india+chinese+quarterly spill over' ( we cannot guestimate it as it is up to CO to decide, after going through his calculations, rules and his mood), so there should not be any surprise for us to hear that quota for this quarter is done.

Looking at the current trend, My Guess would be that GC will become more favorable to India and Chinese because of increasing millionaires and politicians from above said countries as opposed to past where Europeons use to dominate the Rich+Political front.

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did anybody who applied in december see the checks cashed yet? i have not:(

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Originally Posted by doctorp

did anybody who applied in december see the checks cashed yet? i have not:(

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for my applications attornary office cut the checks to USCIS...later I will pay them. So I have no way to track it :(

My checks have not been cashed yet. CIS received my application on Dec 1. Wait for another 2 to 3 days.

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Originally Posted by doctorp

did anybody who applied in december see the checks cashed yet? i have not:(

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hi, can we register on uscis website so we can receive all the updates on our files? can we get updates on both both primary and dependent applications using one A# for primary's I-140 or is it done using receipt #s?

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Originally Posted by srd4gc

hi, can we register on uscis website so we can receive all the updates on our files? can we get updates on both both primary and dependent applications using one A# for primary's I-140 or is it done using receipt #s?

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you need a receipt number to register, and as you and your spouse will have different receipt numbers, you have to track them seperately

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Originally Posted by sreddy

if "Wait for 90 days" term was used, not guessed (second hand information some times have guesses), it is clear that Quarterly spillover is already in place. I think we do have some other indications before as well indiating may be there are quarterly spillovers.

Here are my thoughts... If you look at last year's movement, 2011 saw about 12 months (may be 11.5 months) movement. Appears that second part 2007, and early 2008 is about same desity, if not more denser, compared to previous year. So we cannot expect movement beyond March 2008 (may be + or - a month). That being said, CO seems be in the mood of building some inventory (based on what he spoke in the meeting last month). One un-solved puzzle is how much inventory does he want to see? Does HR 3012 have any influence on what CO is thinking? In addition, this is election year. So any from Demcratic party are thinking to show some flexibility, that may help get some support from Indian/Chinese community (2007 Fiasco happend about a year before elections)?? So it all depends on what factors are going to influence forward movement. Hard to guess.... just wait for 3 or 4 more days, you will get better picuture of what is on CO's table, and what is in his mind (you will never get a clear picuture however, and will have same type of questions next month as well).

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This year is very different from past years simply because there is no demand data to work off. Up until the July 2007 cases were in the hopper, he had visibility and could move dates accordingly. Right now, hes has a "sense" of what's in the pipe. Going by trends and math, he could stop in 12 months which I believe would be June 2008. But is that going to be enough? How can he guarantee that ?

I'm less concerned about the impact of Hr3012 in the short term VBs. Its visibility in to the "business as usual" demand and inventory that's important.

Please don't hold me on this :)

Our company attorneys sent email asking all of us before PD of Apr 15th to be ready with 485 documentation. And I did call attorney's office and they sounded positive that there will be forward movement this bulletin and a possible stall/retro after that.

They also said *IF* there is movement in 3012 bill in senate then EB2IC will become current for a month before settling down with dates for ROW and EB2 I/C, and that they heard the information from CO office.

Again, everything is word of mouth, so please don't hold me on this :), but I would be one happy soul if there is forward movement next month.

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Originally Posted by SaturnRing

Please don't hold me on this :)

Our company attorneys sent email asking all of us before PD of Apr 15th to be ready with 485 documentation. And I did call attorney's office and they sounded positive that there will be forward movement this bulletin and a possible stall/retro after that.

They also said *IF* there is movement in 3012 bill in senate then EB2IC will become current for a month before settling down with dates for ROW and EB2 I/C, and that they heard the information from CO office.

Again, everything is word of mouth, so please don't hold me on this :), but I would be one happy soul if there is forward movement next month.

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My attorney told me almost 20days back that they are anticipating my date will become current in Jan 2012 VB and asked for the documents to send, I will send all the documents including medicals and crossing fingers and waiting for the real VB

Hope DD will out by 12/07 and VB out by 11/09

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Originally Posted by venkimakthal

My attorney told me almost 20days back that they are anticipating my date will become current in Jan 2012 VB and asked for the documents to send, I will send all the documents including medicals and crossing fingers and waiting for the real VB

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My attorney never tells me anything. My date is exactly 1 month after your PD. Hope we see 2 to 4 months forward movement as Gurus suggested before.

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Originally Posted by pdmay2008

My attorney never tells me anything. My date is exactly 1 month after your PD. Hope we see 2 to 4 months forward movement as Gurus suggested before.

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I would suggest you keep ALL your docs ready. there's a very high probability your PD will get current in the Jan VB.

How about pD 04/18/2008 ??

I think this is my 3rd post:-) in my first post i said July 2008 ..and it moved to March 2008 ..Now i am thinking it will be July 2008 ..Reason - It is a just a gut feeling based on what we see from last bulletin, CO did clearly mention that Jan/Feb bulletins would be similar to DEC and will eventually retro..in Summer 2008 based on that i think it should go another 6-7 months ..So no worries for now..Good luck to everyone!:-) PUSH-->"Pray Untill Somethings Happens"

I don't think July 2007 cases were processed from 2011 demand. If you look back into history, while cases of April 2007 were being processed we got signal saying Visa numbers for 2011 are done (that's when our gurus said "Sleep until next March/April").

I agree with you on one point. There is no demand data to predict clear cut movement. But our indications show data is not too low to show great movement after April 2007. On the other hand, current forward movement is for demand generation. So Mr.CO can simply say i want to see numbers in demand until Q2 of 2013 or little more. It's all matter of issueing EADs for now any way, so nobody is going to question him. He even indicated dates may retrogess towards summer 2012.

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Originally Posted by vizcard

This year is very different from past years simply because there is no demand data to work off. Up until the July 2007 cases were in the hopper, he had visibility and could move dates accordingly. Right now, hes has a "sense" of what's in the pipe. Going by trends and math, he could stop in 12 months which I believe would be June 2008. But is that going to be enough? How can he guarantee that ?

I'm less concerned about the impact of Hr3012 in the short term VBs. Its visibility in to the "business as usual" demand and inventory that's important.

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Once demand deta comes out..we could easily judge the movement

guys... this is a question regarding post 485, the other thread is not so much visible so i want to post it here too...mods please feel free to remove...

1. What happens after FP?
2. How many days does FBI name check and FP check take?
3. Once the above checks are done, am i preadjucated waiting for Visa number?

All the very best for all in the line and i pray your number come sooner than any one can predict....