Hello Gurus,
My PD is April 23 2008 and would like to know if i stand any chance this year....i want to avoid getting my H1 visa stamped when i got to India in december... at-least get EAD/AP, do you all think it is realistic...
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Hello Gurus,
My PD is April 23 2008 and would like to know if i stand any chance this year....i want to avoid getting my H1 visa stamped when i got to India in december... at-least get EAD/AP, do you all think it is realistic...
Hello All,
Could someone please let me know when can I expect to file 485 as per the calculation discussed on this forum ? My PD is April 10, 2008. Min and Max wait time ? Really appreciate your input.
Though I read this forum regularly this is the first time I'm posting something..... Many people already expressed how good and refreshing the discussion is on this forum - I doubt if anyone disagrees. I just want to add one thing to it...
If I were to build a startup team, I will hire people like you (Q,V,S,T,etc...) - who are competent, collaborate to meet the end result, know how to give space to others - including juniors and make them feel equally important!
Thankyou!
that is a fair question - but i think the data is as of end fy 2008 (although the file may have been uploaded much later).
Even Gods love praise. We are mere mortals!! That is the best praise I have heard. So thank you :)Quote:
Originally Posted by ragx08
EB-2I 07/2008, I140 approved. Employer moved operations (> 35mi). Current work location may or may not be operational after a year..... Decided to move to the new location next month. Filing new PERM & I140 from new location - retaining the old PD. Now, before the new PERM is approved if my PD becomes current (remote chances though - but would like to know what I might run into), the company lawyer says I can still apply for I485 with a letter of intent from the employer and me saying the I intend to move back to the current location on greened!
1. Is that possible?
2. If it is and it happens, would it have any impact on AC21 in future - if need arises?
3. What happens if at the time of approval the current location is not operational?
1. Possible.
2. If AC21 eligible, no impact.
3. Don't know. You need a lawyer.
Additionally why not stay in place and wait for 485 to be filed. Meanwhile the second PERM at the new location can be applied.Quote:
Originally Posted by ragx08
Q,
Thanks for the response. I'm not hoping my PD to become current soon - but if for some reason the PERM gets delayed, I could end up in that situation.
no offense to any one, but the beauty of this forum is helping people understand the procedure and decide themselves.
I feel if someone asks 'this is my PD, when do i get gc',they are ignoring a chance to learn
on a lighter note, why would you not consider working for them? :)Quote:
Originally Posted by ragx08
https://egov.uscis.gov/cris/processTimesDisplayInit.do
It says there is no data available.
Whats going on?
Probably not all of them as some of them priority date would be in 2007, correct me if I am wrong. So as kd2008 explained, we also need to go by file number which includes date of aplication filed. As mentioned by many this data is already explored but not wrong to do it again by a fresh mind for better calculations or to become a guru and replace some of the wonderful people hereQuote:
Originally Posted by bieber
this guy predicts it to be current for whole EB2 or 1 qtr of 2008 by sep 2011... what do you guys think....
http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...-category.html
As vishnu said, at the time the FY2008 data was published, the last 6 months certifications had not expired.Quote:
Originally Posted by vishnu
We have discussed this topic several times in the 100 odd pages and many people have confirmed that, although their case shows as Certified-Expired, they did in fact submit an I-140 within 180 days.
There is not going to be any communication channels between USCIS and DOL to say if an I-140 was ever submitted, so the cases automatically become Certified-Expired after 180 days. In fact, it is a meaningless distinction, which did not exist until FY2008.
Regarding PERMs that are Certified without an I-140 being submitted within 180 days, that will be a vanishingly small number, representing the exception rather than the rule. PERM is expensive and time consuming - it is not entered into lightly, especially after Labor Substitution was stopped.
I separately created file for only 2008 (based on the file name julian logic) and it has both certified and certified+expired, I excluded everything before 1st jan 2008. I don't have it right now but will post laterQuote:
Originally Posted by grnwtg
as far as I remember, we collectively agreed to include both to be on safer side for calculations
Personally, I have a lot of time for whoever runs that blog.Quote:
Originally Posted by soggadu
They also say the dates might not move, so they are just reiterating that DOS may have choices, but no-one can predict what will happen.
I don't think that differs from anyone's view here. Individually, everyone might have their own personal opinion, but beyond that it is guessing.
We'll only know when the September VB is released.
Spec
what's your take on setting up Dec2007 or Q1 2008 or Aug1/Oct1 2008 Date?
If CIS wants to build inventory, it's better for them to collect more than taking a few every year. I'm thinking 'extrapolating their logic of strict movement while inventory is known and applying the same logic for building pipeline is not apt'
having said that I know they can do anything and just may leave the date in 2007 once they see PWMB and will be in a situation to make it C will be their only option left in Q3 fy 2012.
Q and others, whoever is in contact with the source with CO. Do we have any info from CO how is the trend going forward with AUG and SEP VB?.
happy, happier, happiest ? :)
Well, thats because all I see here is good 'team-play'. Moreover, if you have a team like this, you don't need someone to manage it (beauty of startups - where building a team does not imply you manage it)!!Quote:
Originally Posted by bieber
BTW, I was not referring to just the QVST quartet, you missed my "etc" which includes many others like you that contribute!!! Keep up the good work.....
That person, whoever is posting the EBI&C prediction on that blogspot, is also using the word "PWMBs". Is that a standard abbreviation in EB2 forums or is this person using the data on this thread and forgetting to quote the source?Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Once the date moves past July 2007, will there be a significant EB3-EB2 porting of late 2007 and 2008 EB3 PD's? Or it will be negated by the fact that actual EB3 filings are low post summer of '07, just curious about that variable,
Please take a look at this poll and draw your conclusions:Quote:
Originally Posted by GC-Utopic
http://www.micropoll.com/a/mpresult/1067045-399455
PWMB, SOFAD, ROWMP and much more is our own lingo (and actually even the concepts at times) that now many people use it.
Its possible that the guy is using our forum ... but that's ok. Let good thoughts come from all directions and go to all directions.
Quote:
Originally Posted by 03May07
Total Spill over expected this year = 32k
June VB: 9k released
July VB: 12k released
Aug VB: 9k ?
Sep VB: 2K ?
PWMB will generate some demand for next year with this approach ,any feedback guys?
I think you invented a whole new language around the calculations.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I see all those terms used very generically these days, even though they were first coined by you (presumably in the original IV thread).
I think they probably do look at this forum a lot, because some of the modifications have taken place just after they were discussed here (some of the PERM analysis discussions in particular). They should cite the source, but that doesn't always happen. Their tool and calculations are a lot better because of it, so I see that as a positive contribution.
The guy seems pretty knowledgeable and answers everybody's questions.
Hasn't there been some spillover (~3K) already used up by the May bulletin when the PDs moved by ~2 months. The numbers might look like below and the big unknowns are the next two months. My hunch (following last year's trend) is that most of the movement will be in Aug, though dates might move a lot (and then retrogress) if they decide to take in more application during Sep.
Total Spill over expected this year = 30K - 35K?
May VB: 3K released
June VB: 9k released
July VB: 12k released
Aug VB: ??
Sep VB: ??
I think May was regular cap?Quote:
Originally Posted by pch053
The regular cap is 2800 visas and most of it might have been consumed prior to May through EB3->EB2 porting and any old pending cases. If it was from regular cap, I would have expected the dates to have moved even earlier.
CO explained in the notes for the May 2011 VB that EB2-I had already used its annual limit and was now using spillover visas per Section 202(a)(5).Quote:
Originally Posted by neospeed
The latest that EB2-I was using the regular cap was in April 2011.Quote:
For example, at present the India Employment Second preference cut-off date governs the use of numbers under Section 202(a)(5), India having reached its Employment Second annual limit; the China Employment Second preference cut-off date governs number use under the quarterly limit, since China has not yet reached its Employment Second annual limit.
If another 12k come through the existing inventory would be exhausted. That would make the SOFAD to 36k which is a lot closer to the high limit of the anticipated SOFAD (37k)..Quote:
Originally Posted by pch053
Hope to undo all my education and start to spell September with a "C"...
Hi,
I am new user to the thread. I have been following this thread for quite sometime now. It won't be an exagarration to say that this is the only forum which does realistic data analysis in relation with visa number availibility, keeping aside all the other unwanted and unnecessary stuffs. I have stopped going to all the other forums once I found this forum as this forum maintains more healthy and to the point discussion. Also we have most extraordinary data crunchers and analyzers here. kudos to Q, Spec, veni, Biber all all the significant contributors.
I have one question for you wise ones. I PD is 02/26/07, which is current as per the latest visa bulletin. I had started job hunt couple of months back. Now I have two offer letters, both from two very respected Fortune 500 organizations, in my hand with joining date of July first week. I did not know that my PD was about to be current, which is why I had looked for the job switch in the first place. Now obviously I long for GC more than this opportunity and would let this offerlttters pass. But I read in this thread that after September DOS is going to retrogress the date back. My question is what is the possibility that it would retrogress to a date prior to 02/26/07?
I am just trying to avoid a case where I leave these jobs and ended up in a situation where my PD is not current anymore, few months down the line.
Thanking you in advance.
I am in a somewhat similar situation with my PD being July'07 which might be current in the Aug or Sep bulletin. I am thinking of whether to take a job offer where I am supposed to start the new job sometime during Aug (Sep latest). In my case, I have already used AC21 provision once (I forwarded the docs to USCIS then), so my original petitioner is my ex-employer and I have no issues like employer revoking I140, etc. As of now, I like the job a lot and I am inclined towards taking the new offer but haven't reached a final decision yet.
In your scenario, I don't see an issue if you join your new job during 1st week of July. Not sure, you will be working on EAD or H1Br, but if you have all your documents in place you can switch jobs assuming your new job has similar job duties as the one mentioned in your Labor. It is up to you whether you want to proactively submit AC21 docs or want to wait for USCIS to issue a RFE (if any).
I will look forward to hear others input on this! At the end of the day, every person will have his/her own viewpoint and it boils down to their own decision.
GCPagla,
It is not entirely clear whether you already have an I-485 pending, whether AC21 portability has been achieved, or are waiting to file an I-485.
To answer your question, personally, I see no prospect of retrogression to a date before your PD of 02/26/07.
At current pace the chances of retrogressing to Feb 2007 is very minimal or none. If you have already applied for AOS and your i485 is pre-adjudicated then you should expect approval by mid July!Quote:
Originally Posted by GCPagla
First I agree w Spec in terms of retro. I will go one step ahead and say .... any date movement upto May 2007 is sustainable. Beyond that the chances that dates will retrogress start increasing.
As per job "offer" - I think an offer works for USCIS. So either it's current job or a job offer. However it is still advisable to talk to a lawyer since I do not know if a gap between GC approved date and Job Start Date is ok? And if so ... how much gap is ok.
Quote:
Originally Posted by GCPagla
Quote:
Originally Posted by pch053
I do agree its better to consult a good lawyer for the "gap" between the start date of the job and the approved date of GC. Just from a logical standpoint, I feel that if the gap is of the order of weeks to a month, it will be just fine as GC is related to a future job offer and one can need some leeway (say a few weeks) to start the job after receiving the Green Card. However, if the gap is longer (say > 3 months) then it will probably raise questions. But, again these are just my thoughts and I absolutely have no clue about the gap of employment between GC approval date and date of starting the new job. In case, I decide to switch jobs, I will surely check with the company's lawyer on this.
Q
I am a little surprised with the post.I hope you mean if the dates move very quickly in the next two bulletins to beyond May 2007 then retrogression is possible for couple of months.Though would not the start of the next Fiscal year start movement in the dates again.I thought from Teddy's post buried a few pages back talking about movement beyond Aug bulletin that USCIS might decide to an inventory buildup for the future and that Q3 2012 might give some good news with folks with PD post May/June 2007.
Could you please clarify what kind of retrogression you would be expecting and the possible timeline till which retrogression might apply.
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Q,
Appreciate your response. Not that I can do anything about it, why do you think it's gonaa take 5 years? Currently people with PD of Mar 2007 getting green. That's slightly more than 4 years. Based on that don't you think, it will be 4 years or less. Things are getting SLIGHTLY better and predictable. Am I missing something? Is Jul 2007 fiasco has anything to do with?
Another question - do you think they can repeat Jul 2007 in next couple of years?
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Thanks Q, veni, Spec and all for your response. Yes, I forgot to provide more aspects about my situation. My 485 is filed during the 2007 dream time (AKA fiasco). I have already used AC21 to switch job in 2009 and my current status is AOS (I am on EAD). My 6 years on H1B completed way back in 2008.
As far as preadjudicated or not, is there a way to understand that. My 485 application has a LUD on 08/2010. I do not have any idea why it was touched during that time. But not sure if any action has been done on it. I had sent my Ac21 support letter, provided by current employer, through my lawyer in 2009. But my 485 did not show any LUD then. And then suddenly one fine day in August 2010, I saw the LUD changed.
Technically you are only few weeks awy from GC approval, If i am in your situation i would for the approval. Good Luck!Quote:
Originally Posted by GCPagla