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Hearing Charlie Oppenheim explain the spill over processes and interpretation of the INA laws now.
I have to say...
Gurus in this forum , @qesehmk ,@vsivarama and others I cant remember the names.. have been bang on target in estimating the spillover, future PD movement !!! Kudos to all of you and thank you all for your contributions.
Hi - Due to certain personal reasons I was not able to focus on immigration or GC related matters back in Oct-Nov timeframe. My priority date is EB2 Jan 2012. So I missed filing my EB3 downgrade application and I485; with all the predictions now and recent updates from Charlie does it make sense to just wait and file my I485 directly in EB2 when the final action dates or filing dates are current. From all that I have read and understood there seems to be a good chance of my EB2 date being current in FAD itself later this fiscal year or early next fiscal year.
Just wanted few other educated opinions on if there's any reason I should downgrade to EB3 when filing dates or final action dates in that category allow me to? Why add the extra EB3 I140 downgrade application step to my situation now; again this is very specific to my priority date of EB2 Jan 2012 and how I was not able to downgrade back in Oct last year. Appreciate any inputs.
See that's the beauty of Data based approach to predictions and forecast. If better data was available, then even better predictions are possible.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mgajsk
CO seems to be certain that there will be at least a total of 275K GCs available in EB category next year. With EB1 current and EB2 getting both vertical and horizontal SO I would say it would be advantageous if you stayed put in EB2. Again it's just my opinion based on new facts that came into light, so take it for what it's worth. Downgrade (for folks like us) made sense back in October, as we did not know about the potential SO numbers for FY2022 and also had no idea how the future rules in H1 would shape up under Stephen Miller's watch. Now that I know the estimate of future SO numbers, I will stick to my downgraded EB3 (my PD is similar to yours). It's a waste of USCIS' time to interfile back to EB2 as @aceman would put it.Quote:
Originally Posted by xeqtr85
I think biggest missing gap here is the processing speed of USCIS and visa wastage.Quote:
Originally Posted by vsivarama
Charlie O hopefully keeps moving the dates and puts pressure on USCIS as he has indicated in the interview but if USCIS don't process the visas fast enough, Charlie O then slows down the movement based on that , it will stay advantageous for EB3 next year as well.
Gurus,
I downgraded from EB2 to EB3 in December; my PD is December 2012. I haven't changed the employer since I joined them more than a decade back.
Question: when filing EB3 i140, I asked the company attorney about processing it in premium and they refused that my case cannot be processed in Premium but didn't give any reason even after I asked a couple times. Can anyone please guide if that is really the case or if they were just trying to avoid filing it in premium.? my case is at Nebraska and I see that current processing times for EB3 i140 is 5 months+ and after today's CO YouTube Live, I am overoptimistic that FAD for EB3 would most likely hit End of 2012 before this Fiscal and wanted to see that my EB3 i140 is approved well before then. Could anyone please give me some advice?
Agreed; esp. what you said about the change in the situation since Oct and more information available now.Quote:
Originally Posted by vsivarama
As Spec's post a few days ago stated the USCIS issued 147K GCs against an available limit of 156K for FY20. The current 262K is a 90% increase in annual numbers and is definitely a big jump. This would require a significant upgrade in infrastructure and manpower which at least so far we have not seen. Charlie O set an ambitious target for them to achieve and we have to see how they respond in the next 6 monthsQuote:
Originally Posted by inspired_p
I am in the same boat as you, my renewal last year I got an RFE for pics and I got only a one year extension. I filed renewal within 2 weeks of the 180 day window with TSC, hoping I can get the receipt in time to be able to get my employer to extend my employment for 180 days beyond EAD expiry
I was in the same boat. Fragomen recommended not to do it as it can get denied. However, I confirmed with Fragomen that the underlying application is not impacted even if the premium processing request is denied. Also, there is a small possibility that USCIS may not return the PP fee if they deny the request. So if you are OK with the risk of losing that fee, ask your lawyer to submit the request. I am going to wait these next couple of bulletins to see how the dates move in relation to I-140 processing times. Once I am closer to my date, I will submit the PP request as well if needed. My I-140 was received on Nov 4...so it will be 6+ months in May.Quote:
Originally Posted by Noesis
Folks -
MY PD is May 17, 2011 and I applied for an EB3 downgrade last year. My applications' receipt date is Nov 4, 2020. I have not received the fingerprinting notice yet.
My Indian passport expires in November this year. Can anyone share their suggestions for when I should apply for renewal? Right away or after a certain milestone in the GC process? Here are the things I was considering and will appreciate your thoughts on:
1. When is a passport needed in the process: Is it required for biometrics or can a driver's license be used? What are the other stages when a passport is required?
2. Any paperwork or changes to application/ notification to USCIS needed when a new passport arrives?
3. How long does it take to renew the passport through the normal process (since this situation may not qualify for Tatkal) in SF or NY? Does the current passport have to be sent at the time of renewal?
SF took about 3 weeks back in Dec last year via normal process . Please renew the passport on Tatkal if you feel anxious , you need it for the GC especially if you are the Primary .Quote:
Originally Posted by SG2020
My Friend applied for Premium I-140 2 months ago and got approved in 10 days for EB3-I. Companies don't want to pay the extra fees and Lawyers will parrot what their Clients tell them to . Tell your employer that you will bear the expense. In all my years, companies have not borne the premium expense unless you are a long term employee and your VP/SVP signs off on it . But the moment you tell them that you will pay the difference they seem to be OK. As far as I know only EB-I does not allow for premium atleast for the manager category . Pay the difference and get the I-140 done and sleep well for 6 months :) .Quote:
Originally Posted by SG2020
Not quite sure how much USCIS manpower is taken exactly by all the family GC petitions; but if EB is getting all these spillover doesn't USCIS save all the time usually spent on family GCs in the fiscal year.Quote:
Originally Posted by gs1968
The USCIS is involved in the first step of the FB process when a principal applicant (usually US Based) applies for I-130. After the I-130 is approved the process shifts to the DOS. Current I-130 processing times are between 11-15 months. This has remained fairly static over time and the overseas embassy closure and travel ban should not affect this. It does not appear like the USCIS stopped receiving/processing these applications during this period.Quote:
Originally Posted by xeqtr85
As CO said today, 90 to 95% of FB visas are processed abroad, and the rest are AOS from the US. So very less manpower is saved on USCIS' side.Quote:
Originally Posted by xeqtr85
If I am not wrong, you need to have a valid passport when you apply for 485. After that you don’t need it from GC perspective. DL is enough for finger printing. Could you please tell what else you need it for?Quote:
Originally Posted by Moveon
In that case hope USCIS would internally figure out an optimal solution here; focus their processing capacity efficiently and not waste too much of the SO. Given the bottleneck of family based petitions waiting for consular processing.Quote:
Originally Posted by gs1968
This might be most agreeable post of yours for me after some shadow boxing few weeks back. It was obvious that in October 2020 EAD was a bird in hand and there was no information that Eb1 India will be current by the end of 2nd quarter. I am happy that you got the gist of comment regarding interfile.Quote:
Originally Posted by vsivarama
But in future if Eb2 moves fast you have every reason to utilize the available path which can get your GC faster. Don?t worry, I will still be throwing darts to show my displeasure at it. Good luck dear, once we get GC we should have an alumni meet of Q - 20s for people greened in this decade.
It would make the most sense but I think the USCIS is a single speed pony usually cantering with the occasional trot but never capable of a full speed gallop.Quote:
Originally Posted by xeqtr85
LoL !! Now I am really curious about your background!!Quote:
Originally Posted by gs1968
Hi All,
New to this forum, just learned about CO prediction about SO in 2021 FY.
Im in a unique situation, please help me. My PD is Nov 2013. I missed the bus last year when DOF was current and could not file I485 due to job change as previous employer did not support.
Currently working with a consulting firm, which filed PWD and client project is done.
I now have 2 job offers, 1) current consulting firm with new project 2) Full time job offer
Have to decide between 2 offers, what will you suggest, given CO info and New wage rule going in effect from July 2021.
Hello Gurus,
I have a situation where I have new job offer but my current employer would not support for AOS if my PD Nov 2016 becomes current in EB2I or EB3I in chart B filling dates if EB category get the 275k+ visa numbers I?m really confused now that I might miss adjusting my status if I take the new job.
After Charlies interview today he is predicting at least 275k unused visa numbers for EB category for FY2022, do you think PD Nov 2016 will become current in Chart B filling dates for EB3I or EB2I in Oct 2021 visa bulletin with this all time high visa numbers for FY2022,
For FY2021 there was a huge forward movement in EB3I chart B filling dates from Feb 2010 to Jan 2015 , do you think will there be a similar forward movement in EB3I or EB2I for PD Nov 2016 to become current in filling dates and USCIS to honor filling dates for AOS by that time. I appreciate your time. Thank you
Nov 2016 is far and I don't think will get on the bulletin for a couple of years. I would change if I were in your place .Quote:
Originally Posted by Djidondon
Thanks. My passport had one year left when I filed I-485. Will appreciate if anyone could confirm when else I will need it. And once I renew it, do I need to share the new passport details to USCIS?Quote:
Originally Posted by Transformer
This is a very common question, however the answer depends on what you want to do. Before getting too excited with 275K for FY 22 you got to know lot of things with your PD in Nov 2016Quote:
Originally Posted by Djidondon
If you current employer is not supportive for AOS for Nov 2016, which btw is 6 years out for EB3 and nearly 7 years for EB2 you should take the new job from immigration perspective.
For FY21, in October 2020 the filing charts was at January 2015, which was pulled back to January 2014 within couple of bulletins, before stop accepting the filing dates all together for January 2021. For FY 2021 we had 262,000 not too far from 275,000 announced yesterday for 2022.
Right now, due to the after effects of covid ban (unintended benefit provided by the President you love or hate but cannot ignore) the remaining EB visa's for 2021 is exclusively available for Indians in AOS. Expecting the situation to be same after October 2021 may be incorrect.
Your best case scenario, is to take the new job, start working on getting new PERM, which can take nearly a year, then apply for 140 and 485 if your filing dates are good for 2023. With the current visibility, people are ecstatic about EB2, however EB2 has 5 times the number of primaries in EB3. Eb2 or EB3 is a decision you can take next year when your perm is applied and your job specification can fit both category.
AceMan, thank you for your time in responding to my situation I appreciate that. As you said, the chart B filling dates had a significant move in EB3I from Feb 2010 to Jan 2015 ( for nearly 5 years in Oct, Nov, Dec 2020 visa bulletins) for total 262k visa numbers for EB category, I?m just confused on why would there be no forward movement in EB3I filling dates chart B for at least 3 years forward movement until Jan 2017 if there is 275k visa numbers or more available for EB category in FY2022 which is higher than FY2021.Quote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
You are thinking possibly in October 21 bulletin, USCIS advances EB3 dates to January 2017 just like they did in October 2020 bulletin when they moved the filing dates from April 2010 to January 15 and then January 14 after seeing the incoming downgrades.Quote:
Originally Posted by Djidondon
It is possible, however in your previous post, you said your current employer is not ready to file your AOS. So how is staying with the current employer going to help you? Are you planning to go back to your old employer who filed your GC or a totally new employer?
I guess we also need to understand that the 270K are available for use, whether they will be used or not for allocation is the actual step on how many pending cases have been cleared and then how much the dates can move.Quote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
Last year the wastage was only 7K, so it depends on how much is wasted and lost this year to even look at the possible dates movements beyond 2014 or 2015. We will have more clarity on that future dates in Oct'21.
The positive vibe with the movements is that the expectations of people in EB2-I before 2011 and EB3-I before 2012 getting cleared and getting a GC has increased.
I must have been more clear in my previous post, my current employer is not ready to file AOS in future ( in case if my PD Nov 16 becomes current in chart B filling dates for EB3I in FY2022) if I leave him and join a new company.Quote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
Yes I was thinking if there is a possibility for EB3I filling dates to move forward like Oct 2020 visa bulletin in Oct 2021 visa bulletin and if my PD becomes current in filling dates chart B I would like to get rid of H1B and be on EAD if there is such opportunity.
There are a few things to watch out for, including the fact that Democrats included a provision to keep FB visas in FB in their CARES act last year which passed the House. If something like that gets passed or included in another bill that passes, we won't see the extra visas. Plus with the pandemic coming to an end, we will see increased filings from EB ROW, including from pent up demand at the consulates.Quote:
Originally Posted by Djidondon
Experts: I am (EB2I, PD March 2010) in an interesting situation where I have responded to the RFE incl. Supp J, but have another attractive offer now from another employer (same job class/code). Can I switch jobs while they are working on my case since I am current in April bulletin? Thanks for the comments.
You are sure your current employer is not going to file AOS. You said you have a new job offer. I am not sure is it monetary consideration that is not letting you change the job?Quote:
Originally Posted by Djidondon
If you want to take advantage of any possible advancements in October 2021, you need to make your move now and start your Perm immediately following the ad norms and conditions and hope it gets approved by October. Then you might have a chance to file concurrent. It is again a long shot but possible. But if you are thinking of staying back with current job and try later in October, it might be too late.
Hi All,
Can someone suggest on this. situation : PD EB3, March- 2011, I-485, I-765, I-131 applied : 26 OCT 2020 BIOMETRICS scheduled : 19 MAR 21.
Fingers crossed, expecting FAD to be current in next 6 months (guess that's reasonable). I am looking to know what documents we need to carry for in-person interview.. originals of school, college and birth certificates? and one of my friends suggested me to have drivers history reports from DMV as well just to be sure. I dont have originals with me now and hence having my parents send this via Fedex with insurance. Any inputs here on documentation will help me to plan. Good luck everyone !! you guys are my strength !!
Best Regards
Current employer will file for AOS if my PD Nov 16 becomes current in chart B filling dates either EB3I or EB2I in Oct 2021 visa bulletin as long as I?m on his payroll. He will not support for AOS if I leave the current job now and he would withdraw I-140.Quote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
I?m really worried if I move to a new job now the PERM would itself take almost 1 year and what if I got an opportunity to do an AOS when my PD becomes current in filling dates in either EB2I or EB3I if the huge spillover is coming for FY2022 as per DOS prediction 275k visa numbers for EB.
I do not see any possibility of your date being current in EB2I in FY2022. There is a marginal chance in EB3, but that would depend on the number downgrades to EB3 from 2011 to 2014 and the number of GCs issued in FY 2021. If they come close to using up all the GC numbers this year then yes, you have a chance for Nov 2016 in EB3I. It's very difficult to predict this without additional data from USCIS. You can take a chance with the new job and come back to your current employer if the filing dates become current if that's an option. Even if 2011 is cleared for EB2 and EB3 this FY there will be close to 175K primary applicants (not counting the dependents) before you waiting for a GC. Take a look at this i140 approval chart (page 2).Quote:
Originally Posted by Djidondon
https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...ry_FY09_19.pdf
This user is correct. Processing times for TSC have increased from 12.5 - 31.5 to now 12.5 - 51.5.
Holy cow!
https://www.trackitt.com/usa-discuss...page/last_page
https://egov.uscis.gov/processing-times/
Is this in response to Charlie's comments??!
You don't need to share the renewed passport details with them. You inform them only if you change your residence addr.Quote:
Originally Posted by SG2020
I think you are thinking too much. It’s a very remote possibility for 2016 date to be current even in next FY. If the opportunity is good go ahead and grab it. It’s judgement call.Quote:
Originally Posted by Djidondon
If you stay back your employer will file for AOS if your filing dates are current in October 21. That is from your immigration perspective. You stand a chance to get your EAD in 2022 around same time, and with EAD you have more avenues open if the dates move as you expect.Quote:
Originally Posted by Djidondon
If you are prioritizing immediately on career, you will pick up the job offer, do your PERM at the first possible instance, and you will be able to file for your 140, some time after 1 year.
You could leave your current employer in good terms, and will a possibility of joining him back in October 21 if filing dates really advance past your PD. This would be the best of both worlds for you.