EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

Yes Veni. Thanks! Corrected.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by veni001

Q,
I am sure you meant to say FY2012.

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by qesehmk

Spec

This is good. Thanks. So let me try to simplify the picture.

2011 is the year when we are possibly seeing higher EB density (possibly indicating economic optimism). However 2010 was the year when a lot of the labor backlog was cleared and hence although 2010 itself didn't see a lot of hiring, we did see a lot of backlog being cleared in 2010.

As a result, we could potentially see that until 2010 PD, the dates might progress relatively faster compared to the PDs in 2011. However the increased hiring in 2011 in EB1 and EB2ROW could reduce the overall SOFAD in 2012.

Great work on Labor data by Spec and Veni!

---

Q,

PD 2010 is less dense than PD 2009 for Non-IC, but much denser for IC than PD 2009, so it is not a great year overall (although still lower for IC than PD2008).

2011, to date, is just denser for everybody, but IC have risen far more than anybody else.

It remains to be seen whether this continues for the rest of CY2011. We will have a better idea in 6 months. Whether it is bad for SOFAD contribution by EB2-ROW really depends on how much backlog there is to come from previous years.

Using a modified form of Veni's calculation, I come up with a figure of an additional 5-6k EB1 I-140s, which would translate into an average 10.5k extra I-485.

That would essentially wipe out the EB1 contribution to SOFAD, which I have estimated at 12.5k for FY2011.

Let's hope it is incorrect.

What happens if you miss the biometrics appointment?

Me and my wife are planning to go out on a vacation from Dec. 15th - Dec. 26th. I have sent all the documentation to my attorney and I think my application should be with USCIS by Dec. 1st. (Dec. 5th at max).
Based on the trends, the biometrics notices are sent out within 2 weeks. What are the chances of my biometrics appointment being in the window when I'm away? What happens if I miss this appointment?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by ChampU

What happens if you miss the biometrics appointment?

Me and my wife are planning to go out on a vacation from Dec. 15th - Dec. 26th. I have sent all the documentation to my attorney and I think my application should be with USCIS by Dec. 1st. (Dec. 5th at max).
Based on the trends, the biometrics notices are sent out within 2 weeks. What are the chances of my biometrics appointment being in the window when I'm away? What happens if I miss this appointment?

---

ChampU,
Unless you request to re-schedule your bio-metrics appointment before USCIS scheduled date, your 485 will be considered abandoned if you miss the appointment date.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by ChampU

What happens if you miss the biometrics appointment?

Me and my wife are planning to go out on a vacation from Dec. 15th - Dec. 26th. I have sent all the documentation to my attorney and I think my application should be with USCIS by Dec. 1st. (Dec. 5th at max).
Based on the trends, the biometrics notices are sent out within 2 weeks. What are the chances of my biometrics appointment being in the window when I'm away? What happens if I miss this appointment?

---

It is less likely for you to get appointment in that window.. According to USCIS they send you FP notice around 2 weeks before actual appointment.. To be extra safe I recommend not sending the packet on first and send it on second or later..

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by evoori

It is less likely for you to get appointment in that window.. According to USCIS they send you FP notice around 2 weeks before actual appointment.. To be extra safe I recommend not sending the packet on first and send it on second or later..

---

Thanks! Thats what I planned to do. I will ask my attorney to mail it out on 2nd, so that the USCIS receives them on Monday, Dec. 5th.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by nishant2200

Yes, lawyer says he will overnight it on 11/30 so that it gets there on 12/1

This is the expected sequence of events told to me that lawyer expects:
- Receipts in 8-10 days after USCIS gets application
- Biometric appointment notice in 3-4 weeks after that
- EAD/AP card around 30 days after biometric appointment is done
- He says 60 days around after application receipted is good estimate for EAD/AP card
- GC he says before June 1st i.e. around 180 days after application gets in

Also my birth certificate does not have my and mother's full name, my mother's first name has "ben" attached to it, and my wife's birth certificate is registered late in 2005, but he says he will submit only simple birth certificate, and if they ask for clarification, he will submit the additional stuff I have given him (School leaving certificate, affidavits), and he feels that if we submit too much stuff in the initial stage, it unnecessarily makes USCIS think, that there is a problem and complicates matters.

---

Thanks for posting Nishant, gives good idea and sets expectations.
My folks are still waking up and i cna only push them so much. i said to them we have only 12/31 to file right? so they said "ya but if it advances we can file till jan 31 " :( not something i m looking forward to. Anyways things ahave moved sofar so no complaints.

Anyways, i had a question for gurus once we file and get WAD and say are waiting for GC and in the mean time someone loses his/her job...how does USCIS know? wont the person get GC eventually?EAD can help get employed legally btu i dont think we can stay here on EAD right?

Intentionally posting this here instead of the dedicated thread, so who is not tracking that thread knows - guys tomorrow there is voting for HR 3012 in the senate. The dedicated thread will be more active starting tomorrow afternoon, I expect.

To the best of my knowledge, Voting is in Congress and not in Senate.

Feel free to shift this post to its right location.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by self.coach

Intentionally posting this here instead of the dedicated thread, so who is not tracking that thread knows - guys tomorrow there is voting for HR 3012 in the senate. The dedicated thread will be more active starting tomorrow afternoon, I expect.

---

WAD : Working as Designed
:)
I am sure you meant EAD

That's a good question, I myself have wondered about it at times. I feel that if you get lucky like this, only problems I see may happen during citizenship or during next GC renewal 10 years later, as indeed, you were out of status and not eligible for GC I believe, because you lost your job before the 180 days of filing for GC, you did not obtain GC till then, and even after 180 days, I think you need to be on same or similar job, you can't just go jobless.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Pdmar08

Thanks for posting Nishant, gives good idea and sets expectations.
My folks are still waking up and i cna only push them so much. i said to them we have only 12/31 to file right? so they said "ya but if it advances we can file till jan 31 " :( not something i m looking forward to. Anyways things ahave moved sofar so no complaints.

Anyways, i had a question for gurus once we file and get WAD and say are waiting for GC and in the mean time someone loses his/her job...how does USCIS know? wont the person get GC eventually?EAD can help get employed legally btu i dont think we can stay here on EAD right?

---

You may be correct - thanks. It is House of Representative (I guess thats what HR stands for now), which is probably Congress. A more accurate term to use is the House, because 2011-2012 is the 112th Congress, under which there are House Bills and Senate Bills that get passed. House bills start with H (as in HR, HJRes, HConRes, HRes) while Senate bills start with S (S, SJRes, SConRes, SRes)..by the way while researching for this, I could not avoid looking into HR 3013, and found it very interesting.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by longgcque

To the best of my knowledge, Voting is in Congress and not in Senate.

Feel free to shift this post to its right location.

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by self.coach

by the way while researching for this, I could not avoid looking into HR 3013, and found it very interesting.

---

lol. indeed interesting ;)

Once a GC is approved for you - you have the freedom to be jobless. It is usually recommended to stay in the same job that gave you the GC for 180 days at least - so that the impression of a fraudulent GC is not raised. However, even cases of people leaving job immediately after getting GC have sailed through the citizenship process. I am not even sure whether one would be out of status if one leaves a job after filing 485 and getting EAD - the only concern is that if you get an RFE for something like EVL then one would be in trouble.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by nishant2200

That's a good question, I myself have wondered about it at times. I feel that if you get lucky like this, only problems I see may happen during citizenship or during next GC renewal 10 years later, as indeed, you were out of status and not eligible for GC I believe, because you lost your job before the 180 days of filing for GC, you did not obtain GC till then, and even after 180 days, I think you need to be on same or similar job, you can't just go jobless.

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

The prediction for the next bulletin is purely based the fact that the Sofad for 2012 maybe around 25k. With the current intakes there is some buffer so if CO wants more buffer then he will go for more intake, if he feels it’s sufficient it might be time to retrogress. In either case if the movement is guarded or dates retrogress we can logically expect the same cycle to occur every year Oct - Dec. however atleast for next month there will be another factor the HR 3012 factor if the bill passes the house and is likely to pass in the senate then I believe forward movement will not stop itself.

---

Hi Teddy,

My PD is Apr 18th 2008. Looks like according to your analysis the dates will retrogress or stay intact in the next bulletin. So I dont think mine will become current anytime soon :-(.

Vchirakala, Teddy said 50% chance, and if the 3012 bill passes house today, then I do feel that we have more than 75 % chance, so hang on tight :)

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by kingjeremy

Dear Q / Nishant / Other Gurus - I have been following your forum for a long time, not a contributor because my skills / knowledge is still not at the level of some of you guys. Please do not ignore this post. I am in a mess right now and any advice / guidance will be helpful.
I had a valid US H1-B visa stamped in my passport through Feb 2012 and I came to India for an extention for my new 797 which is valid through Nov 2014. However, the Chennai consulate accidentally seems to have given me a new stamp based on the old 797. As a result, I have two valid visas through Feb 2012. I have emailed VFS this morning with the documents, etc but have not received a reply. I had a flight to go to Bahrain to see my inlaws which I will have to cancel. Technically, I can reenter the US based on my visa stamps (since its valid through Feb 2012), but the problem is that I have misplaced my original 797. I have sent an email to Fragomen (my company's immigration lawyers) but likely won't get a response from them for another day. Do you know what I should be doing in this situation? My return flight to New York is on Nov 27 (Sunday) and unfortunately the Consulates here are closed for thanksgiving. My best bet will be for Chennai consulate to correct this matter and issue me a new stamp. BUt if they are not able to do it timely, I will have to fly back on my old stamp, but in that case, will I be granted entry into the US based on a copy of my old 797 (since my original is lost?).
Any help / advise will be much appreciated.

Kind regards,
Adi

---

Friends - thought I'll post the resolution.

Sent my passport and pertinent documents via VFS Mumbai on Monday morning. On Friday morning got an email saying my passport was ready and would be couriered. Received the passport on Saturday afternoon (note, consulate was closed for a day). The new visa stamp reflected both 797s.

Reached New York Monday morning and guess what - the immigration officer did not even look at my 797(s). He saw my visa stamp, asked me where I worked, and stamped my visa and i-94. So all worked well in the end.

Thank you all for your responses.

Adi

I would say you have more than 50% chance of getting current.

If HR3012 passes, make it 100% and there are very good chances of it being passed in the house today. Do your bit and donate at ** to help it pass in senate. Help ** to help you and your family!

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by vchirakala

Hi Teddy,

My PD is Apr 18th 2008. Looks like according to your analysis the dates will retrogress or stay intact in the next bulletin. So I dont think mine will become current anytime soon :-(.

---

I have been researching this in the last few days and here is what I found
1. If you stay in the firm but do not get GC within 180 days, then you can change jobs using AC21 and all is smooth.
2. If something happens before 180 days and you do not get GC, you need to get a similar job ASAP and file for AC21 after 180 days
3. I am not sure what happens if something happens before 180 days and you get GC within 180 days. A lot also depends on if your employer revokes I-140 too.

Gald to be corrected if I am wrong above.

Also, I don't understand when the 180 day safe-zone rule starts from. Is it from the time you apply for 485 or does it start from the time you get GC?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by imdeng

Once a GC is approved for you - you have the freedom to be jobless. It is usually recommended to stay in the same job that gave you the GC for 180 days at least - so that the impression of a fraudulent GC is not raised. However, even cases of people leaving job immediately after getting GC have sailed through the citizenship process. I am not even sure whether one would be out of status if one leaves a job after filing 485 and getting EAD - the only concern is that if you get an RFE for something like EVL then one would be in trouble.

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by longgcque

To the best of my knowledge, Voting is in Congress and not in Senate.

Feel free to shift this post to its right location.

---

I believe its in the morning in the house where its expected to pass.
I think the senate votes on it at 6pm today(trying to get the article link). I have read somewhere it needs 100% vote in senate is it true? Can even one senetor derail the bills passage?

[on my question about job loss after applying for AOS]
Thank you all for your responses. If we get further clarity on this it will be good.
I really hope no one gets in to this situation, just good to know what to look out for in the next 6 months.

There is only one vote today - after 6:30PM today in the House. There is no vote scheduled in Senate. HR-3012 can not be voted in the Senate until it passes the house. Senate can vote on the senate companion bill S-1857 - but that bill is in the Senate Judicial Committee and will only be voted once the committee finishes with the bill.

For a bill to pass in House today, a two-third majority is needed since the bill will be voted under suspension of rules. When it comes to vote in Senate it will need just a simple majority (51 votes), although it is usually best to have a filibuster-proof majority (60 votes). It is not correct that one single Senator can derail the bill - it just looks like that sometime when there is a filibuster - but that situation does not arise if there are 60 senators in support.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Pdmar08

I believe its in the morning in the house where its expected to pass.
I think the senate votes on it at 6pm today(trying to get the article link). I have read somewhere it needs 100% vote in senate is it true? Can even one senetor derail the bills passage?

---

Download Android app by Sunlight Foundation for real time updates regarding HR 3012. This app is called "Congress" in the Android Marketplace. Bill information is provided by GovTrack through the Library of Congress. As per the latest update on this app, HR 3012 will be voted at 6.30PM - I had to rely on it since my work does not allow accessing specific sites including cspan video as its part of news/media.

Hello Gurus,
this is quite an information. I have been reading this for some days and it is helping a lot.
can some one answer (predict with vast knowledge) my question
Is there a chance of getting CO date for sep19th in next couple of months for India
What are the changes of retrogression before EB2 for india 19th sep getting current.
Thanks all for all the valuable information.

unlikely that Sept 19, 2008 will be current. Almost guaranteed that there will be retrogression before that.

thanks VIZCARD for your views.
is there any prediction when can sep 19th be current?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Archer

thanks VIZCARD for your views.
is there any prediction when can sep 19th be current?

---

Without HR 3012, I imagine sometime between Oct - Dec 2012. Anything sooner will be completely unexpected (and awesome!). I'm a month before you so I'm pretty much in the same boat.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by kingjeremy

Friends - thought I'll post the resolution.

Sent my passport and pertinent documents via VFS Mumbai on Monday morning. On Friday morning got an email saying my passport was ready and would be couriered. Received the passport on Saturday afternoon (note, consulate was closed for a day). The new visa stamp reflected both 797s.

Reached New York Monday morning and guess what - the immigration officer did not even look at my 797(s). He saw my visa stamp, asked me where I worked, and stamped my visa and i-94. So all worked well in the end.

Thank you all for your responses.

Adi

---

King,

For what did you send passport to VFS? was it H1B stamping or something else? Sorry it is not clear to me and it would help if you can clarify.

H.R. 3012 - Passed!

Congrats on you H1b stamping Adi....

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by kingjeremy

Friends - thought I'll post the resolution.

Sent my passport and pertinent documents via VFS Mumbai on Monday morning. On Friday morning got an email saying my passport was ready and would be couriered. Received the passport on Saturday afternoon (note, consulate was closed for a day). The new visa stamp reflected both 797s.

Reached New York Monday morning and guess what - the immigration officer did not even look at my 797(s). He saw my visa stamp, asked me where I worked, and stamped my visa and i-94. So all worked well in the end.

Thank you all for your responses.

Adi

---

Hi Gurus,
My priority date is Feb 3, 2009 any predictions when it will be current.

Thanks,

I have been silently following this blog since the whole prediction thing was started by Q on **. In between, Q stopped posting on ** and I searched a lot and finally found this site. I love this blog. This is the most neatest blog I have ever seen and been managed so well by all the moderators and contributors. Kudos to everyone. My two cents.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by sugada

Its great to know that the HR3012 bill passed with such a great majority, But I feel there are much bigger hurdles ahead. I think that there is every possibility that this bill may face a totally different challenge with the senate. It is not necessary that a bill passed in the house will also pass with the senate, it might very well go undebated and silent considering other priorities. The senate may have a very different view about it. Remember ROW may oppose our favorable view on this bill with which only IC people would see a marginal benefit, and mostly ROW here in US means EU fellows who always gain hidden favorism here. Also as IC people are benefited with spillover, how substantial this bill will benefit IC people? I am not projecting this view from a pessimistic view but wants to see from a pragmatic perspective, so please be easy on your thoughts or correct me where-ever I am wrong. But sure it is an interim time for cheers.

---

On how much of an impact the bill would have on EB2Ic just consider this, with 34K visa numbers providedin FY2012, it would equate to 28.4K of spillover. Next 2 years it would equate to 31.4K of spillover. And that excludes fall down from EB1, 4 & 5.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by jss1234

I have been silently following this blog since the whole prediction thing was started by Q on **. In between, Q stopped posting on ** and I searched a lot and finally found this site. I love this blog. This is the most neatest blog I have ever seen and been managed so well by all the moderators and contributors. Kudos to everyone. My two cents.

---

jss, thank you for your kind words. It does give us an idea that we are doing something right and useful and motivates us to do it further.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by pch053

Is it fair to assume that if this bill is cleared by the Senate, EB2-I/C PDs might will move even further than what we are expecting now? What will then be the common PDs for all EB2 folks; will it be somewhere around 2009? I think EB3-I PDs will also move past 2002 but the progress of EB3-ROW will slow down significantly.

---

Absolutely. The EB2IC dates will dramatically move by at least 1 more year from the time the law becomes effective. e.g. if it is passed before end of this year and teh law were effective 1 Jan 2012, then expect the dates to move to at least end of 2008 during 2012 itself. In fact the dates will move very very significantly beyond that and then retrogress to end of 2008 if this becomes an effective law as of 1st Jan 2012.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by LUVSPIDER

H R 3012 - FINAL VOTE RESULTS FOR ROLL CALL 860

29-Nov-2011******6:56 PM

******QUESTION:**On Motion to Suspend the Rules and Pass, as Amended
******BILL TITLE:*Fairness for High Skilled Immigrants Act

************* Yeas *** Nays ***NV ( Not Voting)
Republican****** 210**** 13***** 18
Democratic******179**** 02***** 11
Independent*****
TOTALS******** 389**** 15***** 29

---

Looking at these numbers, it almost looks like certainty that this will actually become a law.

Hello Gurus,

From the trackitt trends, EB1 and EB2Row which were stalling was starting to get approved. Do you think HR 3012 passing in house will again stall EB2Row ??? Since CO might not want to exceed 15% in approving EB2Row ?!

Or do you think EB2 Row has not met 15% limit yet this yr ? Whats ur take ?

Also what do you think will be movement in next month's bulletin for EB2I ?

As per calculations by experts on projected SOFAD and incoming density, he has about enough. Next is for more buffer or if there is more SOFAD projection/less density incoming perceived by CO.

I dont think they will stall row due to hr3012. However, it passing in the house leads me to think CO will buy time and do at least 2 months movement, he can afford to do this in Jan VB. next DD if still very low, shall give him great wiggle room.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by SaturnRing

Hello Gurus,

From the trackitt trends, EB1 and EB2Row which were stalling was starting to get approved. Do you think HR 3012 passing in house will again stall EB2Row ??? Since CO might not want to exceed 15% in approving EB2Row ?!

Or do you think EB2 Row has not met 15% limit yet this yr ? Whats ur take ?

Also what do you think will be movement in next month's bulletin for EB2I ?

---

Do all gurus agree that next bulletin would have 2 months movement only i.e. May 2008?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by scion78

H.R. 3012 - Passed!

---

I moved all the HR3012/S1857 discussions (except those related to PD movement) to the advocacy thread. Hope y'all don't mind joining the conversation there.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth....3012-H.R.3119

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by nishant2200

As per calculations by experts on projected SOFAD and incoming density, he has about enough. Next is for more buffer or if there is more SOFAD projection/less density incoming perceived by CO.

I dont think they will stall row due to hr3012. However, it passing in the house leads me to think CO will buy time and do at least 2 months movement, he can afford to do this in Jan VB. next DD if still very low, shall give him great wiggle room.

---

Nishanth,

If there is going to be movement in next bulletin, isn't it supposed to be longer than 2 months, DOS/CIS might have received enough applications to be used in this fy but presently the demand data for next month will not have any of that demand, so the movement will be solely aimed to get demand from CP cases and in that case 2 months doesn't make much sense.

Remember, after September bulletin, the consensus on our forum was PDs will end up in 2007 by sept2012, that may still be the case but my point is the movement in next one or two bulletins is not dependent upon 'number of receipts', I think it depends on the real demand

guru's, guys and gals...

please answer this question for me...

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...4860#post14860

EB1 approvals are coming fast and furious on trackitt. The bulk of pending cases are from EB1C with India taking an unusually large share in that compared to FY 2010.