q + others: you've been following these bulletins for a while now. the july 11 bulletin came out before dos demand data and had ZERO commentary on EB. have you seen anything like this before?
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q + others: you've been following these bulletins for a while now. the july 11 bulletin came out before dos demand data and had ZERO commentary on EB. have you seen anything like this before?
My understanding is that that's how it always was. In fact Demand data is something that DoS started publishing in last few years. Regardless I do not really believe there is a lot to it.
However there is one thing that really piqued my interest. I never noticed this before (although the language is there for all prior bulletins). It says the EB limit is at least 140,000.
If you look at last year the FB spillover was first mentioned only in August bulletin. So I guess the agency likes to play it close and keep some discretion in providing FB spillover (FBSP) to EB. For year 2010 the FBSP was 10K. However the FB underutilization was 14K. So not all underutilization translated into FBSP.
In year 2010 the underutilization is 11K. So realistically the August bulletin should show FBSP 7-8K.... thereby bumping EB quota to 147-8K. That will a sweet sweet addition to any potential remaining SOFAD from EB1/5/2-ROW.
But as I said, the question is not whether it is there and whether it could be used. The question is whats the objective on DoS' part? The more I think about it, the more I have started to think, they really want to get through Jul 2007 and take in new applications. Don't take it to bank but .. I think they have certainly created the background whereby if the Agencies decide to do so, they will have the ability and means to do so.
Quote:
Originally Posted by vishnu
Q - so going back to something you mentioned on a previous post, for a visa number to be used (and waste avoided), not sufficient that the i-485 has been submitted - it must be found documentararily complete?
Simple answer is yes.
A more complex answer would be a question - Does "Documentarily Qualified = Preadj" ?? If not, intuitively "Preadj > Documentarily Qualified", is that right?
Spec what's your take on these questions?
Quote:
Originally Posted by vishnu
Q,
Not sure why you think that. Comments inline.
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Veni,
Thank you for sharing your knowledge and time.
I have a quick question for you. I thought if one's PD is current, he/she will be automatically assigned a Visa number. Is that not right? Sorry for my ignorance.
Thanks!
Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Q you will definitely be current next month. Frankly movement till 8th March is beyond all expectations.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Congratulations finally your green hour is approaching.Quote:
Originally Posted by gcwait2007
Thanks for your kind words. Just sit back and relax, I sincerely hope you are greened by Sep 2011.Quote:
Originally Posted by C_Carrey
Many thanks and congratulations I believe you should surely get your GC by Sep 2011, 3 months is sufficient time to process.Quote:
Originally Posted by lagan2006
gccool,Quote:
Originally Posted by gccool
Which is true only if that application is documentarily qualified when PD is current.
I just see a case with PD 02/20/2007 approved in TSC in trackitt isn't it you:-)Quote:
Originally Posted by gcwait2007
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I think that is an interesting question. Here is my take on it.
The Demand Data can only show a number if a visa has been requested.
For AOS, that can only happen when the FBI fingerprint check, the IBIS check and the Name check have been completed (there are provisions if the namecheck has been pending >150 days, but I don't think they would apply if a visa is not immediately available).
The reality is that the visa is not requested until the case has been pre-adjudicated.
A more interesting question to me, is at what point CP cases appear in the Demand Data.
I think it is very late in the process. According to this list of steps, it only occurs at step 5, which is just before the interview is scheduled.
That means most of the CP cases do not appear as part of the Demand Data.Quote:
- The USCIS (formerly known as the INS) forwards the approved immigrant petition (the I-797 Notice of Action) to the National Visa Center (NVC) if the alien has indicated his desire to apply for consular processing in an immigration petition. Otherwise, he has to file Form I-824 to request consular processing;
- The NVC sends Packet 3 to the alien when an immigrant visa number becomes available;
- The alien and his family complete Packet 3 and return it to the NVC;
- The NVC processes Packet 3;
- The NVC notifies the State Department Visa Office of the completed Packet 3 processing and requests allocation of visa numbers for the alien and his family; and
- The NVC schedules an immigrant visa processing appointment to be attended by the alien and his family at the nearest U.S. consulate that issues immigrant visas.
http://www.hooyou.com/consularprocess/faq.html
A visa will be issued at the time the application is finally adjudicated IF the PD is still Current at that time.Quote:
Originally Posted by gccool
Many people in July 2007 were Current, but the Cut Off Dates retrogressed to a date equal to or earlier than their PD by the time their case was adjudicated.
Looks Like many Guru's are going to get green by sep'2011. I wondering about analysis in this site after that. Q, Veni, Teddy, Spectator - i think you are going to greened card shortly i do no expect you to be active after that. What are your suggestions for this forums? . I guess There are few other guru's who are got pd in 2008
And Q, I think you started this website( though i am not sure), are you going to keep this website alive?
Spec I was looking at DHS data rather than DoS. That is where the numbers I quoted came from. If DoS data is the final word, (which makes more sense) then you are right.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
On this one ... I have always thought about "Documentarily Qualified" weaker than preadj. i.e. many people can be qualified but a subset will be preadjudicated. But it seems its the other way round.
On a different topic ... I think I found why quarterly spillover doesn't happen although we think AC21 specifically asked for it. Here is what AC21 asked for.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Note it says "OVERALL" demand. Not demand for non-retrogressed countries. That's the problem. So yes .... the non-retrogressed countries might show less demand than supply, but the AC21 doesn't allow spillover unless OVERALL demand is less than supply. In other words AC21 would be useful only when countries may be slightly retrogressed rather than severely retrogressed.Quote:
The American Competitiveness in the Twenty-First Century Act (AC21) removed the per-country limit in any calendar quarter in which overall applicant demand for Employment-based visa numbers is less than the total of such numbers available.
With the dates moving forward rapidly, how do we know a case has been pre-adjudicated?
Rest 100% assured this website will go on. And i will continue to contribute.
Quote:
Originally Posted by grnwtg
Q, Veni
someone asked about June2008 PD and you both were saying it could take 3 years, help me understand here
according to Spec, there will be 16,000 EB2IC in calendar 2007 (PWMB and till dec31st) once the backlog is cleared. from Jan to Jun2008, based on perm numbers, the 485 demand will be around 15,000 (65:35 Eb2 and 80% 140 approval rate with 2.2 dependent ratio)
so the number of 485s can be anywhere from 24k to 36k and even if the spillover goes down to last year level, he should get his gc in 2 years. I do see there is a chance for him to get it by sept2012 too.
eitherway, when do you think he will get a chance to file 485
Bieber pls note I said MAX 3 years. I completely agree he may get a chance to file as soon as Sep 2011. And could actually get it by Sep 2012. The reason I am hesitant to go into details is because my suspicion is that this year EB2IC is being favored for backlog reduction which means next year we will see all those EB1 and EB2 ROW come back roaring. But we will know better when Oct 2011 inventory is published.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bieber
The movement will only occur during last quater. And you need consider PWMB and also porting cases when the next dates moveQuote:
Originally Posted by bieber
Q,
I will wait until you get a chance to analyze, if you, veni, teddy, spec would like to participate we should probably open a separate thread for that discussion
I did consider everything you just mentioned :)Quote:
Originally Posted by neospeed
Gurus and Pandits,
lets say if the dates move to JUL /AUG 2011 by september. Will USCIS will keep in mind of PWMDS while moving the dates there afterI,e they may have around 300 visas per month to allocate will they keep allocationg them to PWMDs and upgrades through out next year?
Also if the date retrogresses how far it will retrogress . Mine is in May 2007 . So I am wondering if I can get greened within next year before next spillover season starts.
Human mind is so greedy.Earlier I was hopeful that my date will get current and if I would get a chance to file 485 and now that the chances of gettign current are improved, I am hoping to get greencard
In new scenario where we are already in march 07. How the projection looks like. Is there more than 50% chance of dates going beyond July 07
Take Infopass or ask your lawyer or send mail to NCSCFollowup.Nsc@dhs.gov regarding asking about status of your case.Quote:
Originally Posted by PD1006
Some people got reply in 3-5 days. As it mentioned under thread 'How to find case got Pre-adjudicated!!!'.
Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
biber,Quote:
Originally Posted by bieber
I clarified in the above post that it could be 2-3 years! 2years if he can apply by Sept 2011, 3-yrs If he miss the boat assuming that USCIS will open gate before end of FY2011 for his/her PD.
GCDespo,Quote:
Originally Posted by GCDespo
Actually USCIS issued all FY2011 quota for EB2 IND in the first two quarters itself(460 per month), so yes they will continue to issues VISAs for the documentarily qualified/adjudicated applications whose PD is current event if dates retrogress in Oct 2011.
Veni,
Thanks for the clarification.
Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
grnwtg,Quote:
Originally Posted by grnwtg
Don't worry, we are not going anywhere. But we definitely encourage young-gurus to take the lead.
Thank God they release visa bulletin Thursday evening, if it would have been monday, whole week would have gone for discussions. For people beyond July it all depends on fine number of Spill over and uscis thought on whether to accept new applications and if so how many.
My priority is Mar'08 i am very much optimistic in getting EAD in a year, if things go right i might get chance for EAD in sep'11.
Let us hope USCIS to accept new application for 485 atleast till 2008 or make it current.
Thanks to all Guru's for wonderful data you have provided
Spectator,
Thank you for a very clear explanation.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Hi All,
I have been going through this forum for sometime and after seeing July bulletin could not resist myself.
I have a question on Perm Data that is posted in Facts and Data section. I may be wrong. Here is what I did:
1. I downloaded FY2008 perm data from FLCDataCenter.
2. Exported to excel and did a filter on column Country of Citizenship-India. I got 18837 cases. Out of that I again filtered on column Case Status for Certified only( there are other values like Certified-expired, denied and Withdrawn).
3. I Got a Number 7197 as Certified PERM cases for FY 2008 for INDIA.
4. The Fact and Data section in this forum says for FY-2008 total Perm Cases for India are 16,567.
Not sure if FLCdatcenter has correct number of Perms... WIll anyone clarify ?
Thanks!
na_dev you should include certified and certified-expired. i think fy 08 is about 16500 and fy 09 is about 11500 cases for india (eb2 + eb3). the analysis has been done extensively by veni and is in facts and data.
Thank you Veni and ifaith. Sounds like I need to wait for another 6 monts to get my GC in hand. Please correct me if I'm wrong.
hI Gurus,
tHANKS FOR REPLY.If someone can simplify the explanation with regard to na_dev question it will be helpful.
Few simple question
1.How many approved i-140 applicant from Aug-2007 to July 2008 ?Just rough estimate
2.If same spillover takes place how long will it take to clear the case till July 2008?
3.If date become current in sept 2011,what is the chance of getting retrogade back to 2007?Can it even retrogade beyond 2007?
Quote:
Originally Posted by vishnu
This is what my lawyer says
"Generally, if a case (I485) is approved before the priority date becomes current, the approval is invalid. Can cause issues in citizenship "
How much is this statement has validity in general sense? any issues anyone faced?
I do see some approvals from 2007 EB2I. which is not current now.
Quote:
Originally Posted by vishnu
Thanks Vishnu.
I included Certfied and Certified- Expired for FY 2008 and came up with number 16569 Perm Cases for Fy-2008 for India. But I have a question, why we are including Certfied -Expired Perm cases ?
For example , I changed my job and my last perm filed by my then employer was approved but, never used , it must have expired by now (of course it took 20 months to come.. i moved on...)
nijor.deha
if same spill over will come next year, Aug2008 will be cleared
Veni
thanks for response, still need to discuss but may be this is not the right time
what is the difference between certified and certified-expired?
by default, the system moves it to certified-expired in 6 months time whether or not the i-140 was filed. but yes, you are right, there will be a percentage that never used the perm. which is why it makes sense to apply a haircut on the 16,569 cases (perhaps 10%-20%), before then breaking it down between eb2:eb3 and finally multiplying by 2 to arrive at estimate for 485.
Thanks Teddy and Veni.Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Teddy, I was happy when I saw your comments but at same time I saw Veni's comment about "Documentarily Qualified" requirement. It sounds like I may or may not get GC by Sept 11.
FLCdata for 2008 shows PERM applications approved in 2008. They may have been filed in 2005, 2006, 2007 or 2008. Most PERM applications filed in 2008 were approved in 2009 and 2010. The file number on that data gives the date application was filed - the middle five digits in Julian format. Also one needs to include certified-expired. It simply means the case was approved six months before the data was published. Thats all that it means. Do not exclude themQuote:
Originally Posted by na_dev
Gurus on this forum have done extensive research in deciphering that data. That's why their predictions are so rational and close. But more scrutiny is always welcome.
One request to newbies in general --- please please read facts and data first. If you want to compute things yourself first ask how the gurus did it and why and then do your calculations and ask questions.
Please focus on overall predictions and not on when MY MY MY PD is going to be current. Thats why this forum is different. Because it focuses on the collective and is very cordial.
if that is the case ,if we are looking at fy2008 data then all cases must appear under certified+expiredQuote:
Originally Posted by vishnu