EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

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07-16-2013, 03:13 PM
Guest123

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pedro Gonzales

a) Call your lawyer to make sure that the your addresses (both yours and his address) are updated.
b) Make sure sms and email alerts are both on at the USCIS website.
b) Give your mailbox key to a friend so you can ask him to check your mail in case you get an RFE in between that period.

Other than that, I don't think you need to be worrying about anything right now.

Hi

Regarding a) what address are you referring to - US or out of the country address and where should it be updated incase there is no change in the US address for myself or the lawyer? Could you please clarify.
07-16-2013, 04:01 PM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by JackD1

Hello Spec,

Could you please take a look at the questions i've asked when you get a chance please. Thanks a lot ...

I think there are better people than me on the forum to answer your questions.
07-16-2013, 04:31 PM
seattlet

From the past movements, we can see that cutoff dates are mostly set to either 1st,8th,15th or 22nd of a month. (weekly movement)
and since 2008 has around 1500 485s per month, it can very well end up in any one of those dates for mar / Apr / may 2008
07-16-2013, 04:32 PM
Pedro Gonzales

Quote:

Originally Posted by Guest123

Hi

Regarding a) what address are you referring to - US or out of the country address and where should it be updated incase there is no change in the US address for myself or the lawyer? Could you please clarify.

I mean your US address. The USCIS has no need for your Indian address unless you're using CP (which you aren't). If you move you need to fill out the AR11 form and call a number for them to link your application to it. Your lawyer usually does it for you, but some people choose to do it themselves because it's easy and this way you're sure it's done right. Also, ask the lawyer if he's moved, and if so, has he updated his address with the USCIS (not sure what form he'd have to fill out). We often hear about cases where both lawyer and petitioner have moved, and they can't get a hold of the physical RFE letter.

https://egov.uscis.gov/crisgwi/go?ac...&localeLang=en
07-16-2013, 05:16 PM
Guest123

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pedro Gonzales

I mean your US address. The USCIS has no need for your Indian address unless you're using CP (which you aren't). If you move you need to fill out the AR11 form and call a number for them to link your application to it. Your lawyer usually does it for you, but some people choose to do it themselves because it's easy and this way you're sure it's done right. Also, ask the lawyer if he's moved, and if so, has he updated his address with the USCIS (not sure what form he'd have to fill out). We often hear about cases where both lawyer and petitioner have moved, and they can't get a hold of the physical RFE letter.

https://egov.uscis.gov/crisgwi/go?ac...&localeLang=en

Hi

My US address and the lawyers is still the same. Haven't moved. I am only going to be travelling and will be out of country between Aug 8 - 22.
07-17-2013, 09:58 AM
inspired_p

Quote:

Originally Posted by vizcard

There's two ways to accomplish that.
1. Move the dates way in to the future (or C) so that people can file their 485s and EADs. But the risk here is of random approvals and over-allocating (basically what happened last year).
2. My preferred method - allow concurrent filing with I140 and approve as dates get current. Ofcourse this is a much bigger change and possibly needs legislative approval

Long story, short - ain't goint to happen any time soon

Thanks viz. But i don't understand why you say "random approvals"- once I-485 are current , USCIS do not and never have approved cases on a priority date basis once the cutoff date is determined. Or am I wrong in this statement.

Either ways - i feel option 1 a lot better considering the cons - i.e. approvals not based on priority date basis.I wish it happens next year as well. :D
07-17-2013, 10:09 AM
inspired_p

Hi JackD1,
I will try to answer your questions but with a disclaimer - i do not have first hand knowledge and i am not a lawyer.

Quote:

Originally Posted by JackD1

Hello everyone,

I recently came across this forum and i will have to say, it is one of the very informative, to the point and one of the most civil forums i have seen. Now i am kind of addicted to it and check it every day. :)
I wanted to present my situation and see if any the experts here can enlighten me --

My PD is 08/04/2008, EB2I, Applied 485 in 04/2012, Renewed EAD in 02/2013 and now EAD is valid till 02/2015. I have been working as a consultant since my first H1 and just switched my employer and recently joined another consultant. Now my H1 is renewed till 05/2016 and my lawyer filed AC21 last week.

The project i am working on right now is a full time/work from home. But in actuality there is not much work. I am in support job and if no projects are going on then i have max of 15-20 hours of actual work every week.

When you renewed your H1 with your new employer that means you are on H1-B status still.You need to be fully employed. As i see it , you may work 15 hours a week but you should get paid in correspondence to the LCA and H1B salary expectation

1) What are the chances of me getting my GC in FY2014 if not in 2013 ?
Better people to answer this question

2) Do you know if it would be ok to take on another job (if i find another work from home position ?)
Yes you can using your EAD take up another job

3) If answer to (2) is yes, then would it have to be a consulting position (so that i am with the same employer) ? or i can join another company as full time employee/or consultant using my EAD ?
If you use your EAD to leave the current employment and join another company then it has to be in the field. If you decide to take up additional job or start a business on the side , that doesn't need to be related to your current job description

3) I asked my employer about finding another project for me and whether it would be ok to work on 2 projects and he said that they will have to file another LCA for the new position and then i can on multiple positions. But i am trying to find out if i can join another company as full time employee on EAD as i am sick of paying 20% to my employer and want to join the vendor directly so i can get higher billing rate for myself.

Why you are still working on H1B, once you have your EAD/AP? Unless your spouse missed the boat and you need to file H4, it is better to start working on EAD/AP (my personal opinion), then you would not need any additional LCA /H1B amendments to take up additional projects

You can alway move to a different employer for the job under same job criteria under the AC21 rule. I do not think H1B application is needed at all(as you have mentioned your new employer applied H1B for you)

Thanks a lot and i really appreciate your help.
07-17-2013, 12:22 PM
desitiger

I have a quick question guys and my apologies in advance for going on a tangent. I think this thread has some of the most knowledgeable folks when it comes to immigration matters that is why I am posting here.

Here is a scenario:
If someone with 2008 April PD under EB3-I (needless to say has never file I-485) ports to EB2I and April 2008 PD is reflected on new I-140. When this person files for I-485 does he/she needs to provide any additional documents for change from EB3 to EB2. I am assuming interfiling is not going to be applicable here?

Thanks,
07-17-2013, 12:53 PM
Pedro Gonzales

Quote:

Originally Posted by inspired_p

Hi JackD1,
I will try to answer your questions but with a disclaimer - i do not have first hand knowledge and i am not a lawyer.

JackD1, to add to inspired_p's comments
Your chances of a GC in FY2014 are quite decent.
If you leave your current employment and decide to work on your EAD, do look into the minimum hours requirement. I think you still need to meet the 40 hr work week requirement, but I'm not sure.
07-17-2013, 01:50 PM
MATT2012

Quote:

Originally Posted by desitiger

I have a quick question guys and my apologies in advance for going on a tangent. I think this thread has some of the most knowledgeable folks when it comes to immigration matters that is why I am posting here.

Here is a scenario:
If someone with 2008 April PD under EB3-I (needless to say has never file I-485) ports to EB2I and April 2008 PD is reflected on new I-140. When this person files for I-485 does he/she needs to provide any additional documents for change from EB3 to EB2. I am assuming interfiling is not going to be applicable here?

Thanks,

it is a new I-485 and one should provide all needed documentation. No additional documentation is required. Some attorneys prefer to keep a copy of the old I-140 also, though not mandatory. In your case PD retention process is complete.

Interfiling applies only in the case of an existing I-485 application and when one changes the base application that supports I-485.
07-17-2013, 06:07 PM
Sirisha

Hi,

My brother had EB3 march 2006, He ported to EB2. He got 140 approved.He applied for 485 in 2007, Now as the dates are current in August, does he need to file 485 again?
His lawyer says that no need to file 485 or any thing. But, I would like to know whether he need to follow any procedure or wait just like that.

Thank you!
07-17-2013, 06:08 PM
rferni

1 Attachment(s)

Can one or more experts please help me understand this cumulative demand data? This is what I gathered from DOS Demand Data releases between October 2012 and July 2013 for EB2 India.

The cutoff date for EB2-India has been set at 09/01/2004 starting October 2012 thru July 2013, so no one should be able to file new I-485 applications in this category this entire time - so how did the cumulative demand increase by 2,250 for priority dates prior to Jan 1 2008 within this same time frame? Are these EB3-I porters with cutoff dates prior to August 2007 who already have I-485s on file and have somehow requested an 'upgrade' while their priority dates were still not current?

Appreciate some insight from the experts.
07-17-2013, 06:26 PM
natvyas

Spec

Some weeks ago, after mass RFEs were issued, you had put together a graph showing the RFEs by PD date. Could you please direct me to that data and also advise if you have an updated version? With a PD date of 24th March 08, I'm hanging my hat on that data.

Regards
Nat
07-17-2013, 07:35 PM
Kanmani

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sirisha

Hi,

My brother had EB3 march 2006, He ported to EB2. He got 140 approved.He applied for 485 in 2007, Now as the dates are current in August, does he need to file 485 again?
His lawyer says that no need to file 485 or any thing. But, I would like to know whether he need to follow any procedure or wait just like that.

Thank you!

Sirisha,

Your brother doesn't need to file a second I-485 . But, the existing I-485 must be linked to the newly approved EB2 I-140. Please check with the attorney if he has already taken care of that step. (otherwise known as interfiling)
07-17-2013, 07:43 PM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by natvyas

Spec

Some weeks ago, after mass RFEs were issued, you had put together a graph showing the RFEs by PD date. Could you please direct me to that data and also advise if you have an updated version? With a PD date of 24th March 08, I'm hanging my hat on that data.

Regards
Nat

Nat,

I think the latest version is Here.

I haven't revisited it since then.
07-17-2013, 08:07 PM
indiani

In the AILA conference one of the presenter said august 2008 instead of " jan 2008 in august bulletin" ( which was immediately corrected by the other presenter ) and some attorneys probably didn't pay attention and got carried away by that.

Going beyond may 1st will be huge surprise. ( even though I hope it should )
07-17-2013, 08:26 PM
natvyas

Did any of the presenters provide a hint for the COD date?
07-17-2013, 08:44 PM
indiani

Quote:

Originally Posted by natvyas

Did any of the presenters provide a hint for the COD date?

They just said jan 2008 for august bulletin, not a word about September at AILA
07-17-2013, 08:57 PM
natvyas

I just noticed in Trackitt that the EB2 ROW approvals for July (primary applicant only) is 8 compared to 51 for April, 41 for May and 40 for June. Given that 17 days have elapsed in the month. Is this trend with an underlying theme?

Regards
Nat
07-17-2013, 09:25 PM
MATT2012

Quote:

Originally Posted by natvyas

I just noticed in Trackitt that the EB2 ROW approvals for July (primary applicant only) is 8 compared to 51 for April, 41 for May and 40 for June. Given that 17 days have elapsed in the month. Is this trend with an underlying theme?

Regards
Nat

Yes, the approvals numbers are low for EB2ROW and there are few more approvals in EB2 NIW. if the trend continues into second half of July, it may have a marginal impact in date movement. Trackitt do have enough pending cases to support more approvals. But overall EB2 ROW approvals started to slow down from June.
07-17-2013, 10:19 PM
JackD1

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pedro Gonzales

JackD1, to add to inspired_p's comments
Your chances of a GC in FY2014 are quite decent.
If you leave your current employment and decide to work on your EAD, do look into the minimum hours requirement. I think you still need to meet the 40 hr work week requirement, but I'm not sure.

Thanks inspired_p and Pedro for you response. I guess i just got my H1 renewed for backup case (in case something goes wrong with my GC application). So i was trying to find out if 2 full time jobs can be done (1 on H1 and 1 on EAD, different employers), but i think that is not possible.

I am only talking about the jobs in my field so i am not worried about that. So, if i join another company as full time employee on EAD, i am guessing my H1 will be invalidated but i can still keep on working for current employer on EAD at the same time. Do we need to notify USCIS that we will not be working on H1 and switching to EAD ?
07-17-2013, 10:50 PM
Sirisha

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kanmani

Sirisha,

Your brother doesn't need to file a second I-485 . But, the existing I-485 must be linked to the newly approved EB2 I-140. Please check with the attorney if he has already taken care of that step. (otherwise known as interfiling)

Thank you Kanmani!
07-17-2013, 11:08 PM
indiani

Quote:

Originally Posted by natvyas

I just noticed in Trackitt that the EB2 ROW approvals for July (primary applicant only) is 8 compared to 51 for April, 41 for May and 40 for June. Given that 17 days have elapsed in the month. Is this trend with an underlying theme?

Regards
Nat

They might be busy pre-adjudicating 8k+ cases of eb2I :)

Moreover CO might want to " save enough numbers" to make sure all eb2I cases cleared until atleast feb 2008. JK..
07-18-2013, 08:22 AM
PD2008AUG25

Quote:

Originally Posted by inspired_p

I gather when you say Summer or end of FY2015 that is April- sept 2015 .

That is really bleak prediction. I hope the dates become current before that even if CO wants to retrogress them again. Most of us would be happy with EAD/AP status for 2 years rather than getting a GC in quick 4 months after 2 years.
I dont see why they can't just get all the applications in and take their own sweet time adjudicating the GC applications

Regards

CO doesn't make category current until absolute demand drops to low hundreds. Current Eb2I demand is around 43k. At the end of FY 2013, demand will be anywhere between 30k - 35k, not including porters. Even if you assume liberally that it will only take 2 FYs to satisfy current demand, it should be sometime in FY 2016 when any major forward movement is made.
07-18-2013, 08:48 AM
desitiger

Is everyone on this thread in a consensus that there will be movement in next bulletin or is it going to hold steady at Jan 2008.
07-18-2013, 09:07 AM
bvsamrat

That has been my doubt all along? how the demand number increased specially before 08 and also slight drop in post 2008

Quote:

Originally Posted by rferni

Can one or more experts please help me understand this cumulative demand data? This is what I gathered from DOS Demand Data releases between October 2012 and July 2013 for EB2 India.

The cutoff date for EB2-India has been set at 09/01/2004 starting October 2012 thru July 2013, so no one should be able to file new I-485 applications in this category this entire time - so how did the cumulative demand increase by 2,250 for priority dates prior to Jan 1 2008 within this same time frame? Are these EB3-I porters with cutoff dates prior to August 2007 who already have I-485s on file and have somehow requested an 'upgrade' while their priority dates were still not current?

Appreciate some insight from the experts.
07-18-2013, 09:13 AM
vizcard

Quote:

Originally Posted by desitiger

Is everyone on this thread in a consensus that there will be movement in next bulletin or is it going to hold steady at Jan 2008.

The consensus is that there will be some movement. There is a fairly wide range in terms of how much but its anywhere from 1 month to 6 months. My personal opinion is that we will end at March 1, 2008. That would clear another 3000 or so demand (almost certainly all will be original EB2 pre-adjudicated demand).

Also, IMO (and I know there are others who disagree), that dates will retrogress in the Oct VB itself probably to Jan 1 2006.
07-18-2013, 09:32 AM
eb2visa

USCIS Service Center EB-485 Processing Volume Update at the End of May 2013

TSC NSC National
Pending 25,055 20,716
Preadjudicated 52,330 43,877 96,247
Customer Action Wait 2,419 15,593
Completed 7,704 12,504
New Receipt 8,263 9,713

USCIS Service Center I-140 Processing Volume Update at the End of May 2013

TSC NSC National
Pending 6,799 3,053 9,907

Customer Action Wait 1,453 3,120 4,573
Completed 3,548 3,637 7,186
New Receipt 3,365 2,191 5,556

From: oh law "www.immigration-law.com"
07-18-2013, 10:07 AM
indiani

Does uscis approve cases on Saturdays and evening ?

previously I have seen email about change in the application coming in the evening and I have seen posts on trackitt about satuday approvals.

if they move in "high gear", my guess is most applications should be approved by mid-august ( pre-adjudicated ones )
07-18-2013, 10:19 AM
longwait100

You are correct indiani, I recollect people getting approved on Saturdays last year.

Well, its another 2 weeks from today and we will find out how things go this time!
07-18-2013, 10:39 AM
axialtilt

Quote:

Originally Posted by vizcard

The consensus is that there will be some movement. There is a fairly wide range in terms of how much but its anywhere from 1 month to 6 months. My personal opinion is that we will end at March 1, 2008. That would clear another 3000 or so demand (almost certainly all will be original EB2 pre-adjudicated demand).

Also, IMO (and I know there are others who disagree), that dates will retrogress in the Oct VB itself probably to Jan 1 2006.

Please don't say March 1,2008! My PD is March 18, 2008. Missed the bus last time, need at least an EAD badly now. I am sick of H1B now. If miss the PD this month, I have to wait 10 or 11 months for the dates to move there again.
07-18-2013, 11:49 AM
indiani

Quote:

Originally Posted by axialtilt

Please don't say March 1,2008! My PD is March 18, 2008. Missed the bus last time, need at least an EAD badly now. I am sick of H1B now. If miss the PD this month, I have to wait 10 or 11 months for the dates to move there again.

may 1st is possible , so just hope for the best and wait for bulletin, ( beyond that IMO unlikely, even though remotely possible )

march 1st is just the minimum movement
07-18-2013, 11:55 AM
pdmay2008

Quote:

Originally Posted by indiani

may 1st is possible , so just hope for the best and wait for bulletin, ( beyond that IMO unlikely, even though remotely possible )

march 1st is just the minimum movement

How much is the pending known demand between Jan 1st 2008 and May 15th 2008?. My PD is May 8th 2008. I know my case is border line or remotely possible. I would like to know how much is the pending known demand. Last year few lucky ones from 2008 got approved which should have reduced the demand between Jan 2008 through Jun 2008.
07-18-2013, 12:02 PM
PD2008AUG25

Quote:

Originally Posted by pdmay2008

How much is the pending known demand between Jan 1st 2008 and May 15th 2008?. My PD is May 8th 2008. I know my case is border line or remotely possible. I would like to know how much is the pending known demand. Last year few lucky ones from 2008 got approved which should have reduced the demand between Jan 2008 through Jun 2008.

Roughly 5700 based on inventory data.
07-18-2013, 12:09 PM
eb2visa

Just thinking out loud

There is no way to process all the RFEs by Aug 10th and may not be even Aug 31st. I would think EB2-I will reach China - Aug 2008. This is to make sure if some of the RFEs are not processed or Needed additional info or just to make sure all the numbers are utilized.
07-18-2013, 12:11 PM
pdmay2008

CO has to find around 6000 additional numbers to reach May 15th 2008. Big question is did he use all the FB Spill over yet? Or is he watching demand in other categories to move the dates again in Sep 2013.

Why are EB2 ROW approvals slowed down, is this normal this time of the year based on history? Does it help EB2I in anyway in Sep 2013 Bulletin.
07-18-2013, 01:06 PM
vizcard

Quote:

Originally Posted by PD2008AUG25

Roughly 5700 based on inventory data.

Quote:

Originally Posted by pdmay2008

CO has to find around 6000 additional numbers to reach May 15th 2008. Big question is did he use all the FB Spill over yet? Or is he watching demand in other categories to move the dates again in Sep 2013.

Why are EB2 ROW approvals slowed down, is this normal this time of the year based on history? Does it help EB2I in anyway in Sep 2013 Bulletin.

"known" demand i.e. from the demand data is approx 6500 (going by a density of 1450/ month).

i don't think he could have moved dates to Jan 1 ,2008 without already using the FB quota. There is some debate about whether or not he has used the FD from EB1 but my opinion is that most of it is already accounted for.
07-18-2013, 01:35 PM
desitiger

Quote:

Originally Posted by vizcard

"known" demand i.e. from the demand data is approx 6500 (going by a density of 1450/ month).

i don't think he could have moved dates to Jan 1 ,2008 without already using the FB quota. There is some debate about whether or not he has used the FD from EB1 but my opinion is that most of it is already accounted for.

So basically what you are saying that there cannot be any more movement this year in Sep bulletin?
07-18-2013, 01:53 PM
everydayout

Is CO obligated to use FB quota?

EB has received roughly 18K visa numbers from FB.
I think CO must use the original 140K allotted for EB. But Is he obligated to use all the FB numbers (18K or whatever is remaining) before Sep 30 2013?
If he doesn't use all the remaining FB numbers by Sep 30,2013, Will they go back to FB pool?
07-18-2013, 02:25 PM
pdmay2008

Quote:

Originally Posted by vizcard

"known" demand i.e. from the demand data is approx 6500 (going by a density of 1450/ month).

I don't think he could have moved dates to Jan 1 ,2008 without already using the FB quota. There is some debate about whether or not he has used the FD from EB1 but my opinion is that most of it is already accounted for.

I agree that he has used FB spill over to move dates to Jan 1,2008. But did he use 100% of available under FB spill over. I don't think so. He must be watching EB1 demand until next bulletin release to estimate approximate remaining numbers from FB Spill over(unused under EB1)that he can allocate to EB2I. That might not be huge number, but further movement is definitely possible.

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