imdeng,Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
Do you mean PERM numbers for ROW, or do you mean numbers for Non-IC (ROW-M-P)?
Printable View
imdeng,Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
Do you mean PERM numbers for ROW, or do you mean numbers for Non-IC (ROW-M-P)?
My bad. Spec's heading itself says those are PDs.
That trend is very surprising indeed.
Quote:
Originally Posted by self.coach
I meant Non-IC Spec. As far as EB2 is concerned, ROW, M and P are all in the same bucket - right? Thanks.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Good to see your post after long time. Hope you are having great holidays.
Nishant,Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
How long did it take for you and your lawyer to prepare the application? And what would be the receipt date for you if your application is reached USCIS on Dec 1st?
Done.Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...mp-Philippines
Here's a quick analysis.
The average for 2011 is taken over January-May only.
The 2011 figure for the Year assumes that the Average continues at that rate for the remainder of the CY.
I would expect the 2011 final figure to be somewhat higher eventually (56-60k), since there are still Audit applications to be added.
As you can see, the increase in 2011 is not uniform across all Countries/Groups.
Although the % increase for China is large, the number is fairly small. Within ROW-M-P, Mexico is static and Philippines is lower. Most of the increase in numbers comes from India.
Attachment 201
Wonderful job with this forum, was following ** frequently and suddenly saw the drop in activity but it started over here.. :) Glad i found it.
understood that the PD would retrogress in mar,12 but wouldn't there be further movement in July 2012 VB.
Thanks Spec. Much Appreciated.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Trident
Good luck with the move. This shouldn't be a problem at all. But do update your address with USCIS.
I would expect you to receive the GC in 2-3 months max - assuming yours is a straigtforward case and you are working with a well reputed MNC.
Even otherwise 6-9 months should be more than sufficient. Regarding EAD check the current times on USCIS website. They are decently accurate.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Trident
Following is a compare of the EB2 row and EB1 trend so far. For simplicity i just assumed that Nov is done for approvals.
EB1
2011 - 10+14+13 = 37
2012 - 7+11+38 = 56
The number of Eb1c approvals is almost at 3 times of last year. EB1 A & b are still in early days. Most EB1c cases will use up more visas as these folks are less
likely to have us born kids as a lot of them will be in the age group 35-40 when they would have filed I140 & I485. Most of Trackitt Eb1c is from India, this trend correlates well with high i140 approvals in recent days.
EB2 ROW
2011 - 88
2012 - 37
EB2 row is significantly underperforming, row has a tendency to pick up later in the year, last year also row stated weak initially but picked up later.
Overall as of now I feel that things that Eb2 Row decline and EB1 moving faster may just cancel each other.
Friends I have updated the header of the thread with my current thoughts. Please refer to http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...=7653#post7653. Your comments, critique and suggestions are greatly appreciated.
Teddy- Thanks for detailed analysis.Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
When you get chance please correct typo. ( I am sure you meant 15th MAY to 01-JUN-2008)
How does the NVC receipt data fit in? The general assumption is current in 6-12 months. So Sept 15, 2008 (last known date) should be current by approx. Oct 1, 2012.Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Thanks, you are right, I made the correction.Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
IMHO it should be Oct to Dec 2012. If however HR 3012 passes or there is momentum around it even much sooner is possible. Let's also hope that Sofad can be more 25k is just the initial tentative judgement as of now.Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
Hi Teddy,
Considering the situation where there is no movement or possible retro in Jan bulletin, when do you expect forward movements again ? For Mar 26th 2008, do you think I would have to wait till Jul/Oct 2012 ?
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...-Data-Analysis
PS The Trackitt Comparison Data is now also being updated http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...012-vs.-FY2011
thanks Spec! Looking forward to PERM FY 2011 full year report next. :-)
Glad full year FY 2011 database is now posted at http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...rterlydata.cfm
Oye! the PERM database is 1.43 GB! Yes, GB! FY 2010 was about 100 MB, may be? I wonder why the their is such a huge difference.
kd,Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
All the relevant posts were updated on November 23rd when the data was published, or shortly after.
At imdeng's request, I have also added a thread for Non-IC PERM by monthly breakdown http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...mp-Philippines
The file is huge, but within it, the PERM data itself is much smaller. I suspect they forgot to remove some queries before publishing it.
DOL published a Fact Sheet previously, saying that applications received to the end of May (about 45k) were 63% higher than the corresponding period in FY2010. That appears to be true based on the available PERM figures to date.
Although the figures below are slightly lower, they are only cases that have been adjudicated, so don't include any that are still in Audit etc.
Attachment 204I think they make interesting reading.
Below is a quick summary of FY2011 PERM Data and also comparison to FY 2010 data.
FY2011 saw decrease in PERM completions and also increase in denial rate.
INDIA::
FY2010:
Completions = 31,996
Certified = 28,930
Denied/Withdrawn = 3,066 (9.58%)
FY2011:
Completions = 35,573 (11.17% increase)
Certified = 31,273 (8.09% increase)
Denied/Withdrawn = 4,300 (12.08%)
CHINA::
FY2010:
Completions = 4,558
Certified = 4,052
Denied/Withdrawn = 506 (11.1%)
FY2011:
Completions = 4,031 (11.56% decrease)
Certified = 3,448 (14.9% decrease)
Denied/Withdrawn =583 (14.46%)
South Korea::
FY2010:
Completions = 5,301
Certified = 4,610
Denied/Withdrawn = 691 (13.04%)
FY2011:
Completions = 4,056 (23.5% decrease)
Certified = 3,147 (31.73% decrease)
Denied/Withdrawn = 909 (22.41%)
ROW-M-P:: ***ROW-M-P data is very interesting ***
FY2010:
Completions = 44,858
Certified = 37,255
Denied/Withdrawn = 7,603 (16.94%)
FY2011:
Completions = 33,603 (25% decrease)
Certified = 25,142 (32.51% decrease)
Denied/Withdrawn = 8,461 (25.17%)
*******************************
Overall::
FY2010:
Completions = 81,412
Certified = 70,237
Denied/Withdrawn = 11,175 (13.72%)
FY2011:
Completions = 73,207 (10% decrease)
Certified = 59,863 (14.77% decrease)
Denied/Withdrawn = 13,344 (18.22%)
PERM Processing Times (as of 11/01/2011)
Analyst Reviews -- August 2011
Audits -- March 2011
Reconsideration Requests -- September 2009
Gov't Error Reconsiderations -- Current
*******************************
NOTE: FY2011 saw significant increase (~200%) in EB1 applications compared to FY2010
Veni,Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Nice post.
DOL processing efficiency was not as good in FY2011 as FY2010, possibly due to the few problems they had during the year.
Normal processing time, which had reduced to about one month, has increased to 3 months. Maybe that isn't too surprising, as they have turned to reducing the Audit backlog and those cases must take longer to close out.
So we have a situation where there were more receipts in FY2011 and less completions - not a good recipe.
For those more visually inclined when looking at data (like me :)), here is what Veni was saying in a tabular form (most of it anyway).
Attachment 215
The prediction for the next bulletin is purely based the fact that the Sofad for 2012 maybe around 25k. With the current intakes there is some buffer so if CO wants more buffer then he will go for more intake, if he feels it’s sufficient it might be time to retrogress. In either case if the movement is guarded or dates retrogress we can logically expect the same cycle to occur every year Oct - Dec. however atleast for next month there will be another factor the HR 3012 factor if the bill passes the house and is likely to pass in the senate then I believe forward movement will not stop itself.Quote:
Originally Posted by SaturnRing
Veni thanks. Even Trackitt is pointing to the same trend; EB2 ROW is declining however it shows a different proportion. Please advise how you inferred the 200% rise in EB1. On Trackitt EB1 A & B are still in the same proportion however EB1C approvals are virtually 3 times; approvals are coming for cases as old as 12 months to as recent as 4 months. This indicates that they have really overcome issues atleast with EB1C. Since your analysis is for the whole of FY 2011 the current approvals are more reflective of the last 4-6 months also in late FY 2011 the agencies had gone on an over-drive for EB2 row and EB1 this may also be a contributing factor why we are getting far fewer of EB2 row cases. Additionally on Trackitt it’s the EB1 folks who are complaining EB2 ROW seem to be silent. EB1 moving 200% faster may however overshadow more my initial inference was that EB2 ROW decrease and EB1 increase seem to cancel out.Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Agree, about 15k (20.5%) of the cased processed in FY 2011 are from 2006-2009. Another 29k (38.5%) are from 2010.
Not to our surprise EB1 resurrected back in Q3-Q4 of FY 2011, at this rate i don't think EB1 is going to yield any spillover for FY2012!
Teddy,Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
From FY2011 PERM data it is obvious that ROW-M-P saw 25% decrease in Y-to-Y completions (33% in Certifications) compared to FY2010.
As far as EB1, if we look at first half vs second half of FY 2011.
Q1+Q2::
PERM Certifications = 35,147
Total i-140 Receipts = 42,096
~ EB1- i140 = 6,949
Q3+Q4::
PERM Certifications = 24,716
Total i-140 Receipts = 39,582
~ EB1- i140 = 14,866
Unless EB2-NIW receipts are very high(chances are less), it is obvious that EB1 picked-up steam in Q3-Q4.
Veni, Thanks the calculations look great, there is really no reason for NIW to increase abruptly, perm process is going fine. The EB1 statistics are indeed concerning also topping this there is an unprecedented surge to clear out I140 what makes it worse is that this composition maybe richer in Eb1 than ever before. I agree with your inference we might not see any EB1 spillover this year. Saying this I now believe that the 25K SOFAD figure may well be in danger to get to this we may need ~ 12K from EB2 ROW under the assumption that EB5 and the regular cap will account for 7 + 6 ~ 13K. Last year EB2 ROW may have yielded 5-6K so we are really banking on it this year now to save the 25K figure. Also if EB1 overshoots 40K it has the first rights over EB5.Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Teddy,Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Two pointer that confirm higher EB1 demand are
1) Sudden increase in 485 demand for August/September 2011.
2) Higher than expected EB1-485 pending in October inventory report.
You can refer to my prediction for FY2012 posted back in October.
Veni,Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
I think there is a danger in assuming that there is a real 33% decrease in ROW Certifications Y-to-Y.
Looking at the underlying data, it is clear that FY2011 has only processed to a point 2 months earlier than in FY2010 for Current year cases.
If I add back those 2 months, the total 59.9k Certifications for FY2011 would actually be 69.9k on the same basis as FY2010 (70.2k).
For ROW-M-P, the FY2011 figure of 25.1k would become 28.9k, which is only 22% less than the FY2010 figure of 37.3k.
That is still a pretty steep drop, but is offset by a similar rise (number-wise) in Indian Certifications (36.9k vs 28.9k).
The drop in ROW Certifications could lead to more FA, depending on the level of Backlog Reduction.
I agree that EB1 approvals are at quite a high level compared to last year. As Teddy says, the Trackitt data is a little odd. Not only are the approvals dominated by EB1C, 75% of the approvals are from India. This may be a statistical quirk of the Trackitt data though.
Since EB1 approvals can be a bit "lumpy" throughout the year, I reserve judgement. I agree the underlying data does not look encouraging.
What do the EB1 figures look like if you use the adjusted FY2011 PERM figure of 69,841 instead of 59,863??
EB2-ROW approvals on Trackitt are very low to date (about half last year's level) . Considering both the remaining I-140 backlog and the 11.5k cases in the October 2011 USCIS Inventory, I find that a little surprising.
It is possible that the EB2-IC cases have been prioritized and the ROW cases will be dealt with in the lull before new demand becomes apparent. Given that the EB2-IC cases were already pre-adjudicated, they would be the "low hanging fruit" and easier to complete in larger numbers.
The EB2-IC pre-adjudicated cases now look to be pretty much exhausted.
Given all this discussion, can someone summarize the impact .. Best case / worst case scenario?
A very brief summary would be that Sofad will range between 20 - 25K as per the current indicators, personally though I will stick with something closer to 25K. 30K appears to be extremely unlikely. Given the point where we are it will also affect the new intake sentiment because we have certainly crossed the 25K line any fresh intake is now for purely buffering purpose.Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
Spec - I have deleted my post, you can work on it.
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Agree, looking at PERM data EB2ROWMP decrease is very clear, irrespective of the amount of backlog.
When i look at PERM data first half vs second half of FY2011, the decrease in PERM certifications for I&C is in proportion but for ROWMP it's 10% more than normal. If i compare Q4 to Q1 then it is 16% more!
As far as EB1 figures, since USCIS dashboard shows actual i-140 receipts, i don't think adjusted PERM numbers (pending) will make any difference.
In conclusion, EB1 is on the rise and increase in EB1 demand somewhat correlates to lower ROW-PERM (otherwise would have applied in EB2) in the second half of FY2011!
Spec and Veni
Could one of you pls clarify why Spec's numbers show YoY increase and Veni's show decrease. Also need to do that by bringing the numbers on same basis - e.g. I understand (correct if wrong) that veni's are not necessarily full year numbers.
So it'll be about another couple of months of movement max. At 2500 density, we'll need 10 months of movement. So June 30 is still the target date for FY12?Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
We both agree that decrease in EB2-ROWMP and increase in EB1.
I am using YoY PERM data and i-140 receipts from the dashboard, Spec is trying to get a feel for the PERM backlog by adjusting numbers for actual filings instead of completions.
25k Sofad just takes us to 01-FEb-2008. Actually there were 8.5K cases before Jul 15th 2007 that were approved this year so its only 16.5K beyond Jul 15th 2007. So if 25K is the target we are already in the buffer zone.Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
Teddy,
My post now has the correct figures.
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I agree it has become confusing. I hope I am addressing your question.
Apples and Oranges.
There is a YoY decrease in total Certifications i.e. when looking at ALL PDs. However DOL has processed 2 months less 2011 cases than they processed 2010 cases last year. When this is taken into account, the underlying total Certifications would be about the same as last year on the same basis.
When looking at Certifications for the Current year receipts i.e. PDs of 2011 in this year's data and PDs for 2010 in the FY2010 data, there is an increase.
The monthly density for PDs in 2011 is much higher to date. China, India & ROW are all substantially higher than the corresponding period in 2010, but China and India show a much higher increase than ROW.
If this trend continues for the rest of CY2011, then there will be a large number of 2011 PD cases.
It is likely to be be so high (56-60k) that the amount of spillover available would not be able to cover a full year's progress when these cases become Current. EB2-IC could be 35-37k of the total. That is the gross figure and would be reduced for Porting, multiple PERM etc. Nonetheless, it is a very high figure.
Spec
This is good. Thanks. So let me try to simplify the picture.
2011 is the year when we are possibly seeing higher EB density (possibly indicating economic optimism). However 2010 was the year when a lot of the labor backlog was cleared and hence although 2010 itself didn't see a lot of hiring, we did see a lot of backlog being cleared in 2010.
As a result, we could potentially see that until 2010 PD, the dates might progress relatively faster compared to the PDs in 2011. However the increased hiring in 2011 in EB1 and EB2ROW could reduce the overall SOFAD in 2012.
Great work on Labor data by Spec and Veni!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I am sure you meant to say FY2012.