EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

Indiani,

Just for curiosity, do u have EAD? r just applying I485 for the first time. Am having NOV2007PD, I missed I485 filing last time in 2012. This time, I just want to see my luck if I can get a chance to apply for I485. If not this time I give it up and made up my mind to go back to home country. Qesh/Vizz have given me some hope here for my earlier posts saying NOV2007 will current based on their educated analysis and calculations. Hope for the best.

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Originally Posted by indiani

I belive only after we seeing last bulletin of this fiscal year that there will be 100% certainity of exact movement, its extremely frustating that they just dont publish the Gc's issued every month even though they might have the data readily available.

I dont want to move to a new job with Nov 07 PD in eb2I as I missed the boat once. There needs to be 7000 spillover to cover my PD but I am not 100% certain that is going to happen even though I have pinned all my hopes on the movement which i expect in july/august.

I dont think the porters will get GC if they start making significant moves after august. ( even when they apply in July, only less than 50% might actually get GC)

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I am very much optimistic that Nov 2007 EB2I PD will get a chance to file I-485 this fiscal. But as Spec pointed out, dont take your decisions on any of our calculations. We try to make projections based on availaible data and some assumptions. if our assumptions hold well, our projections will be close enough to reality.

Good luck,

Matt

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Originally Posted by MATT2012

I am very much optimistic that Nov 2007 EB2I PD will get a chance to file I-485 this fiscal. But as Spec pointed out, dont take your decisions on any of our calculations. We try to make projections based on availaible data and some assumptions. if our assumptions hold well, our projections will be close enough to reality.

Good luck,

Matt

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Thanks for your optimism matt,

I already filed 485 last year and I am not a porter. waiting from 2007 almost every month for bulletins and looking at trends , calculations etc., only to realise that CO left us out to give 2008/2009 folks. Like me most people who have been waiting from 2007 and early 2008 perhaps pinned all the hopes on this last Q.

Trackitt data is as close we can get to guess about approvals as possible but it is very difficult to say whether same percentage of actual applicants use trackitt consistently. changes in inventory/DD also have their limitations. even if everything we predict can be close there is no guarantee that CO will not waste visas and will follow FIFO.

My personal predicition for whatever its worth:
My guess is CO might make a safe move to jan 2007 or june 2007 to test how much porting is there in next bulletin before making any significant moves. I have watched over the years that he tends to "TEST THE WATERS" or check the 'DEMAND IN THE PIPELINE" before using all spillover. Folks who have been reading CO's past predictions might be familiar with the terms

I don't understand why you want to "give up and go back to home country."
After all these years I feel like this is my home country .

If you see the inventory dec 2007 has 900 cases. so to clear nov 2007 we need 7K spillover and currently the fact is that all the categories are current so invariable there will be spillover, as long as CO follows FIFO and doesnt waste visas my guess is that there are very high chances that it will clear by august thsi year. So does vast majority of people here think.

as I mentioned in my other post I have EAD and when i responded to RFE (EVL was asked) the case status online is still "request for evidence" even though when i sent a SR, they replied that they received EVL and the PD is not current etc..


If they dont follow FIFO this time I am considering suing the govt.,( if any reputable lawyer is willing to take the case.)

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Originally Posted by indiani

Thanks for your optimism matt,

I already filed 485 last year and I am not a porter. waiting from 2007 almost every month for bulletins and looking at trends , calculations etc., only to realise that CO left us out to give 2008/2009 folks. Like me most people who have been waiting from 2007 and early 2008 perhaps pinned all the hopes on this last Q.

Trackitt data is as close we can get to guess about approvals as possible but it is very difficult to say whether same percentage of actual applicants use trackitt consistently. changes in inventory/DD also have their limitations. even if everything we predict can be close there is no guarantee that CO will not waste visas and will follow FIFO.

My personal predicition for whatever its worth:
My guess is CO might make a safe move to jan 2007 or june 2007 to test how much porting is there in next bulletin before making any significant moves. I have watched over the years that he tends to "TEST THE WATERS" or check the 'DEMAND IN THE PIPELINE" before using all spillover. Folks who have been reading CO's past predictions might be familiar with the terms

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Porting numbers will be high from 2006 folks. So for "TEST THE WATERS" he need to break at mid 2006 in July.Once dates gets into 2007, porting demand will fully show up. Also there cannot be significant number of approvals in September.I think it will be a very difficult balancing game for the last quarter for EB2I. This is what I think, in July say 60% of the projected SO will be applied, 30% in August, and the last 10% in September. On the other hand he is planning to move dates only in August, it will be a different ball game. I think I have heard Spec's and Viz's thought on pattern of date movement. Q, Kanmani any thoughts? Other gurus can also chip in. I know it is a difficult question, because none of us can read CO's thought process.All of us are equally helpless., but will be nice to hear from highly experienced folks.

Some random thoughts abt the inventory.

1. EB2 WW has reduced considerably - Is this hyperactive USCIS? But it may be good news that demand has not increased hinting at lower applications in the coming months

2. EB1 - Has also decreased . Does this hint at lower approvals this year than the consensus here?

3. The odd thing abt EB2I was the 264 in August 2004. Whats with that? How is that possible that inventory increased for august by has considerably decreased for all earlier months? Something wrong there.

On the whole I think with the current data that we have we can safely assume a SO of around 7000 at the minimum.

Thoughts inline.

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Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000

Some random thoughts abt the inventory.

1. EB2 WW has reduced considerably - Is this hyperactive USCIS? But it may be good news that demand has not increased hinting at lower applications in the coming months

EB2-WW increased considerably in the October Inventory due to the effects of temporary retrogression. Although it has now decreased considerably, it has only returned to roughly the same level it was pre October. That might suggest that USCIS have processed the temporary increased backlog and that approvals will return to a normal level, but that level of approvals would still cause EB2-WW to exceed their allocation for the year.

2. EB1 - Has also decreased . Does this hint at lower approvals this year than the consensus here?

Very difficult to know what EB1 approvals might be. Approvals in EB1 also seem quite lumpy rather than steady stream.

The figures confirmed that the Trackitt numbers for Countries other than EB1-I are out of step with reality. The slight negative is that the EB1-I % of the total EB1 Inventory is slightly lower than comparable figures last year. That would push up the total number for EB1 calculated from Trackitt EB1-I figures. I would say this would be a tenuous observation at best.

At present, I think EB1 is likely to come in within the 34-38k range, allowing 7-11k Fall Down from EB1 itself (not including any contribution from EB4/EB5).

3. The odd thing abt EB2I was the 264 in August 2004. Whats with that? How is that possible that inventory increased for august by has considerably decreased for all earlier months? Something wrong there.

I don't have a comment.

On the whole I think with the current data that we have we can safely assume a SO of around 7000 at the minimum.

Currently, I don't see EB2-I receiving less than 7k extra visas. If it were that low, once offset by porting, it doesn't provide that many visas for other cases.

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Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000

Some random thoughts abt the inventory.

1. EB2 WW has reduced considerably - Is this hyperactive USCIS? But it may be good news that demand has not increased hinting at lower applications in the coming months

2. EB1 - Has also decreased . Does this hint at lower approvals this year than the consensus here?

3. The odd thing abt EB2I was the 264 in August 2004. Whats with that? How is that possible that inventory increased for august by has considerably decreased for all earlier months? Something wrong there.

On the whole I think with the current data that we have we can safely assume a SO of around 7000 at the minimum.

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EB2 WW drop is expected, see spec's post for explanation.

I dont think EB2WW will exceed their current quota (including FB which is already allocated), so Eb2I will receive from EB1, EB4 both combined approx 10K.(my guess is less than 10K)

I don't think cut off date movements from august onwards will give porters any GC this fiscal as 60 days too short for GC approval (even though very few can get). for all fresh applications July is your last hope to get GC this fiscal.

all FB's are spread across already,. so there is no 12K that will fall to EB2I, as EB2WW and EB5 will likely us ealmost most of the FB spillover applied to them.
EB1, EB4 will give few thousands to EB2I (less than 10K)

Nov2007 - although ours is educated guess - I really would be surprised if the guess doesn't come true. Having said that ... I think everybody has certain priorities. So make a decision that will excite you for future. If that means going back to India or stay here ... that would turn out terrific eitherway.

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Originally Posted by NOV2007

Indiani,

Just for curiosity, do u have EAD? r just applying I485 for the first time. Am having NOV2007PD, I missed I485 filing last time in 2012. This time, I just want to see my luck if I can get a chance to apply for I485. If not this time I give it up and made up my mind to go back to home country. Qesh/Vizz have given me some hope here for my earlier posts saying NOV2007 will current based on their educated analysis and calculations. Hope for the best.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

indiani,

It's still too early to say.

I want to wait to see what the first movement is in the July VB.

Gut feel says my existing forecast is now a little optimistic and represents a best case scenario. Full disclosure - am using quite an aggressive amount for porting numbers. If that is incorrect, then I will be seen as pessimistic. Don't ask the number - all I will say is that it is bigger than the 4.5k I believe Matt is using, although ultimately it doesn't make such a huge difference.

I would urge no-one to use my guesstimates for any important decisions. The data is too imprecise ( or just completely unavailable) and the error margins are too wide.

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Even if porting is higher - what % of that would get approved this FY?

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Originally Posted by suninphx

Even if porting is higher - what % of that would get approved this FY?

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If they moves dates in july significantly and many porters apply 485 ; then many of those ( potentially couple of thousands) will consume GC's but anyone who applies in august most likely will get EAD this fiscal.

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Originally Posted by indiani

If they moves dates in july significantly and many porters apply 485 ; then many of those ( potentially couple of thousands)

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Sounds optimistic to me ...let me check current I485 processing time

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Originally Posted by suninphx

Even if porting is higher - what % of that would get approved this FY?

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suninphx,

That is the big question.

If USCIS have been lining up those pre July 2007 cases who already have a pending I-485 for approval, by requesting RFE in advance, then it could be quite a lot, because approval would be as quick as for any other EB2 case.

Any RFE after dates become current, whether porting or straight EB2, is going to compromise the chances of being approved this FY.

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Originally Posted by indiani

If they moves dates in july significantly and many porters apply 485 ; then many of those ( potentially couple of thousands) will consume GC's but anyone who applies in august most likely will get EAD this fiscal.

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indiani,

I don't think that is such a big factor. Most porting cases already have an I-485 pending under EB3. That limits the effect only to post July 2007 PD cases that completed the new EB2 I-140 process after April/May 2012. Those cases would be in the minority.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

suninphx,

That is the big question.

If USCIS have been lining up those pre July 2007 cases who already have a pending I-485 for approval, by requesting RFE in advance, then it could be quite a lot, because approval would be as quick as for any other EB2 case.

Any RFE after dates become current, whether porting or straight EB2, is going to compromise the chances of being approved this FY.

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Spectator,

that brings us back to the question if USCIS processes porting cases - even if dates are not current ?

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Originally Posted by Spectator

suninphx,

That is the big question.

If USCIS have been lining up those pre July 2007 cases who already have a pending I-485 for approval, by requesting RFE in advance, then it could be quite a lot, because approval would be as quick as for any other EB2 case.

Any RFE after dates become current, whether porting or straight EB2, is going to compromise the chances of being approved this FY.

indiani,

I don't think that is such a big factor. Most porting cases already have an I-485 pending under EB3. That limits the effect only to post July 2007 PD cases that completed the new EB2 I-140 process after April/May 2012. Those cases would be in the minority.

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In that case there could be upto 7K or more total porters who will consume GC's as they have been waiting for over an year, there will be very high demand which i dont think is reflected yet in last DD. So there might be some chances of dates not moving beyond summer 2007, this scenario though doesnt appear likely but definitely possible.
Most calculations have expectant bias so many of us waiting are in denial of that real possibility of movement just enough to giev mostly porters and very few left over before summer 2007.

I am not sure whether i should ask L2 officer abt predictions, I am waiting on them to pick up the phone with average wait time of 75 min :(

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Originally Posted by suninphx

Spectator,

that brings us back to the question if USCIS processes porting cases - even if dates are not current ?

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Why would they not ? its like pre-adjudication of regular EB2 cases.

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Originally Posted by vizcard

Why would they not ? its like pre-adjudication of regular EB2 cases.

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I am happy if they do- that way isn't porting already in DD? (well, majority of that)

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Originally Posted by suninphx

I am happy if they do- that way isn't porting already in DD? (well, majority of that)

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Ok - I think I see what you guys are saying. They are pre-adjudicated as EB3 cases and given a visa number from EB2 when dates are current?

Thanks Qeseh for your Suggestions. Am pretty confident your analysis is going to be perfect for this FY.
I have searched very meticulously internet and I havn't found any other forum which is as good as this is. Its a great contribution from you along with other Guru's here.

Reply to Matt for my previous response
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Matt, I totally agree with you on analysis and prediction is being done here. We hope for it to happen because of lot of effort and time you guys have spent in analysis and to make prediction on PD movement. If it doesn't happen its nothing to blame upon, because its not in any of Guru's or Qeseh hands. But you guys analysis will help people like me to understand what is driving PD movements and understand the system better.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Nov2007 - although ours is educated guess - I really would be surprised if the guess doesn't come true. Having said that ... I think everybody has certain priorities. So make a decision that will excite you for future. If that means going back to India or stay here ... that would turn out terrific eitherway.

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Originally Posted by suninphx

Ok - I think I see what you guys are saying. They are pre-adjudicated as EB3 cases and given a visa number from EB2 when dates are current?

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suninphx,

Yes, that is exactly right.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

suninphx,

Yes, that is exactly right.

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Thank you !

Pending inventory released:

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20C...13%20Final.pdf

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Originally Posted by gc2008

Pending inventory released:

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20C...13%20Final.pdf

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gc2008,

You might want to go back to page 65 to see the discussion on the new Inventory.