EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

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03-15-2021, 05:10 PM
vsivarama

Quote:

Originally Posted by inspired_p

This is awesome news ! Maybe its just good riddance of some inconvenience for EB community, but this had a lot of effect on the Family visa applications.

This is a nuisance for EB community as it effects less than 1% for EB applicants but slows down 100% of the applications. It was in put in place to slow down processing, as the previous admin could not legally deny issuing GCs to immigrants.
03-15-2021, 05:26 PM
nbk1976

Quote:

Originally Posted by harapatta

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...HAc/edit#gid=0

So, the TSC have approved virtually no cases even as back as Sept 2009 priority dates; they haven't even issued RFEs.
03-15-2021, 05:29 PM
Spectator

In case it gets lost in other postings, I've posted a summary of the FY2020 DOS Visa Report here.

Here's the top level numbers:

FY2020-EB Visa Approvals

EB Approvals

- Country --- EB1 ----- EB2 ----- EB3 ----- EB4 ---- EB5 ---- Total
CHINA ----- 4,766 --- 3,118 --- 3,499 ----- 256 -- 1,564 --- 13,203
INDIA ---- 17,014 --- 2,599 --- 3,194 ----- 734 ---- 613 --- 24,154
MEXICO ---- 1,413 --- 1,613 --- 3,796 ----- 906 ----- 47 ---- 7,775
PHIL. ------- 271 --- 1,079 --- 3,411 ----- 236 ------ 9 ---- 5,006
ROW ------ 23,739 -- 34,718 -- 28,921 --- 8,274 -- 1,363 --- 97,015

TOTAL ---- 47,203 -- 43,127 -- 42,821 -- 10,406 -- 3,596 -- 147,153
03-15-2021, 05:42 PM
Transformer

Thanks Spec for posting the numbers. EB2 approvals are really ridiculous. They didn’t approve the allocated 2800 visas.
03-15-2021, 05:49 PM
bones20

Quote:

Originally Posted by Moveon

As I said it should not be any issue as long as it is within the same org. Eg One Engineering VP's org to another . As long as you/company can keep the job description within what was filed for the I-140 you are safe . Its very easy when you are in the same company for two reasons
1. The RFE if ever issued typically asks for a new Supp-J only if you changed employers . In your case you are in the same company, so you will not have to respond to it .
2. The USCIS realizes that our job functions cannot be the same for years at end just because we were born in India. Your perm.I-140 I am sure was was filed with a generic description that would give you the flexibility to switch fields . You just need 50% overlap in the worst case .

Go for it man. Don't live in fear.

I am closing on an internal offer. However, the office location is different within bay area. Does it matter from a GC perspective?
03-15-2021, 05:57 PM
Moveon

Quote:

Originally Posted by bones20

I am closing on an internal offer. However, the office location is different within bay area. Does it matter from a GC perspective?

Within Bay Area is considered the same Metropolitan Area . Should not cause any issues .
03-15-2021, 06:11 PM
SG2020

Quote:

Originally Posted by Moveon

Within Bay Area is considered the same Metropolitan Area . Should not cause any issues .

I always thought there are 2... San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA and San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA (https://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oessrcma.htm). Please check before making a decision. When in doubt, check with your firm's attorney.
03-15-2021, 06:55 PM
nbk1976

Quote:

Originally Posted by Moveon

....In your case you are in the same company, so you will not have to respond to it .

Always respond to an RFE--even if the info requested is trivial, irrelevant/immaterial to your case, or even if it was already submitted before.
03-15-2021, 07:28 PM
ak7419

Quote:

Originally Posted by nbk1976

So, the TSC have approved virtually no cases even as back as Sept 2009 priority dates; they haven't even issued RFEs.

that is true.
03-15-2021, 07:29 PM
bones20

Quote:

Originally Posted by Moveon

Within Bay Area is considered the same Metropolitan Area . Should not cause any issues .

Quote:

Originally Posted by SG2020

I always thought there are 2... San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA and San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA (https://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oessrcma.htm). Please check before making a decision. When in doubt, check with your firm's attorney.

Thank you. Just spoke to the hiring manager. He is ok with keeping the current location. thanks!
03-15-2021, 07:48 PM
usvisas

Quote:

Originally Posted by rocketfast

The Eb1-I guys maintain a tracker for MSC with a sample space of > 500 people. According to it, 39% of the people that applied after October 1st are yet to get biometrics appointment. I follow it to get a general idea of approvals.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...#gid=497246112

There are also a couple of Chinese telegram groups that crawl the USCIS case status page to figure out the rate of approvals. There is a decent spike in activity over the last couple of weeks. But, still a long way to go for them to not waste any GCs.

great find! thanks!
03-15-2021, 07:55 PM
qesehmk

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

In case it gets lost in other postings, I've posted a summary of the FY2020 DOS Visa Report here.

Here's the top level numbers:

FY2020-EB Visa Approvals

EB Approvals

- Country --- EB1 ----- EB2 ----- EB3 ----- EB4 ---- EB5 ---- Total
CHINA ----- 4,766 --- 3,118 --- 3,499 ----- 256 -- 1,564 --- 13,203
INDIA ---- 17,014 --- 2,599 --- 3,194 ----- 734 ---- 613 --- 24,154
MEXICO ---- 1,413 --- 1,613 --- 3,796 ----- 906 ----- 47 ---- 7,775
PHIL. ------- 271 --- 1,079 --- 3,411 ----- 236 ------ 9 ---- 5,006
ROW ------ 23,739 -- 34,718 -- 28,921 --- 8,274 -- 1,363 --- 97,015

TOTAL ---- 47,203 -- 43,127 -- 42,821 -- 10,406 -- 3,596 -- 147,153

Thanks Spec. As always this is incredibly valuable.
03-15-2021, 08:21 PM
bones20

Quote:

Originally Posted by Moveon

Within Bay Area is considered the same Metropolitan Area . Should not cause any issues .

Quote:

Originally Posted by SG2020

I always thought there are 2... San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA and San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA (https://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oessrcma.htm). Please check before making a decision. When in doubt, check with your firm's attorney.

Just an update: Spoke to the attorney. She suggested:
- to postpone the start date of the new job to after the 180 day i485 pending period to be on the safe side and that it is quite close in terms of time (end of April).
- I may also need to file i485j if there is material change in the job description.
03-16-2021, 09:58 AM
longwaitgigu

Quote:

Originally Posted by Moveon

It should show in the "Preference classification" Box that is next to the "Priority Date "

It does not show in preference classification in mine
03-16-2021, 10:56 AM
bones20

Re: ac21 180 day rule
If my i485 receipt date is 10/28/2020, what should be my join date to a new job with ac21 portability. Is it 04/26/2021 or 04/27/2021? is the receipt day inclusive of the count? thanks!
03-16-2021, 11:22 AM
LeoAugust

Quote:

Originally Posted by bones20

Re: ac21 180 day rule
If my i485 receipt date is 10/28/2020, what should be my join date to a new job with ac21 portability. Is it 04/26/2021 or 04/27/2021? is the receipt day inclusive of the count? thanks!

calendar date. 04/29/2021 should be the joining date.
03-16-2021, 11:57 AM
bones20

Quote:

Originally Posted by LeoAugust

calendar date. 04/29/2021 should be the joining date.

Thanks. Not sure though I understand:
Oct: 3 days
Nov: 30
Dec: 31
Jan: 31
Feb: 28
March: 31
Total: 154

So you need another 26 days in April. So a start date of 04/27 would honor the 180 day pending period, no?
03-16-2021, 12:45 PM
android09

Quote:

Originally Posted by bones20

Re: ac21 180 day rule
If my i485 receipt date is 10/28/2020, what should be my join date to a new job with ac21 portability. Is it 04/26/2021 or 04/27/2021? is the receipt day inclusive of the count? thanks!

Wow, counting the specifics ! You must have a spectacular offer in hand or want to leave your employer real bad.
03-16-2021, 12:49 PM
bones20

Quote:

Originally Posted by android09

Wow, counting the specifics ! You must have a spectacular offer in hand or want to leave your employer real bad.

Yes - the current job is no less than jail. Counting days - literally :) !
03-16-2021, 01:00 PM
hariyalipremi

Just put it in excel...do a formula for 180+receipt date..join the next day!
03-16-2021, 01:15 PM
bones20

Quote:

Originally Posted by hariyalipremi

Just put it in excel...do a formula for 180+receipt date..join the next day!

Thats comes to 04/27/2021. Thank you!
03-16-2021, 01:56 PM
ak7419

Does anyone know if USCIS has to request visa for those applications that were filed in 2012? Also, does anyone know if USCIS makes these requests on a per-application basis or do they get a monthly quota? I understand this year is an exception and we have few extra available for employment-based applications. Is USCIS requesting visa on a lumpsum basis or monthly basis this year?

I came across this FAQ: https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showt...ull=1#post2091
03-16-2021, 02:02 PM
Moveon

Quote:

Originally Posted by bones20

Yes - the current job is no less than jail. Counting days - literally :) !

I know that feeling @bones20. But just play it safe , its just a day more .
Best of luck and hope your new job/group is less stressful and lets you grow .
03-16-2021, 02:19 PM
incredible

Quote:

Originally Posted by Moveon

I know that feeling @bones20. But just play it safe , its just a day more .
Best of luck and hope your new job/group is less stressful and lets you grow .

Or if you have any vacation days left over, you could take it for the last week or so and then leave.
03-16-2021, 02:21 PM
1312011_eb2I

Hi Friends,
I was thinking about EAD and GC. Technically, purpose of EAD is to provide employment authorization while you are waiting for GC and if you don?t get GC within 6 months then you can continue using EAD. If this is the case then we all should get EAD before filing date + 180 days. Correct me if I am wrong fundamentally.
03-16-2021, 02:26 PM
qesehmk

Quote:

Originally Posted by bones20

Thats comes to 04/27/2021. Thank you!

@bones20 - I will say keep on good terms with your prior boss as you leave. Leave on nice terms even though you may have a volcano boiling inside. If nothing else, it will build your inner character in a way that will help your future career. All the best.
03-16-2021, 02:34 PM
android09

Quote:

Originally Posted by bones20

Yes - the current job is no less than jail. Counting days - literally :) !

All the best fellow traveler. As others have said, dont burn the bridges on the way out. While all of us can understand the frustrations, give yourself some legal space and not be tied to that 180 number unless absolutely critical. There is not a big difference between 180 and 185 or 190.
03-16-2021, 02:47 PM
LeoAugust

Quote:

Originally Posted by bones20

Thanks. Not sure though I understand:
Oct: 3 days
Nov: 30
Dec: 31
Jan: 31
Feb: 28
March: 31
Total: 154

So you need another 26 days in April. So a start date of 04/27 would honor the 180 day pending period, no?

yes 180 calendar days from RD.
03-16-2021, 03:03 PM
bones20

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

@bones20 - I will say keep on good terms with your prior boss as you leave. Leave on nice terms even though you may have a volcano boiling inside. If nothing else, it will build your inner character in a way that will help your future career. All the best.

Quote:

Originally Posted by android09

All the best fellow traveler. As others have said, dont burn the bridges on the way out. While all of us can understand the frustrations, give yourself some legal space and not be tied to that 180 number unless absolutely critical. There is not a big difference between 180 and 185 or 190.

Quote:

Originally Posted by LeoAugust

yes 180 calendar days from RD.

Thanks! Absolutely. I have no problems with my manager - we get along well. So no question of burning bridges. The job itself is bit of a rut we got into due to a reorg.
03-16-2021, 04:11 PM
AceMan

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

EB Approvals

- Country --- EB1 ----- EB2 ----- EB3 ----- EB4 ---- EB5 ---- Total
CHINA ----- 4,766 --- 3,118 --- 3,499 ----- 256 -- 1,564 --- 13,203
INDIA ---- 17,014 --- 2,599 --- 3,194 ----- 734 ---- 613 --- 24,154
MEXICO ---- 1,413 --- 1,613 --- 3,796 ----- 906 ----- 47 ---- 7,775
PHIL. ------- 271 --- 1,079 --- 3,411 ----- 236 ------ 9 ---- 5,006
ROW ------ 23,739 -- 34,718 -- 28,921 --- 8,274 -- 1,363 --- 97,015

TOTAL ---- 47,203 -- 43,127 -- 42,821 -- 10,406 -- 3,596 -- 147,153

They missed only about 9000 visas overall.
03-16-2021, 04:31 PM
bones20

Quote:

Originally Posted by AceMan

They missed only about 9000 visas overall.

Dont we have 261.5k visa available Fy20? 5.2k for each eb1,2,3-India?
03-16-2021, 04:33 PM
asankaran

Quote:

Originally Posted by AceMan

They missed only about 9000 visas overall.

EB2 India didn't even get full quota of 2800 visa. What a shame, forget about spill over!!
03-16-2021, 04:52 PM
AceMan

Quote:

Originally Posted by bones20

Dont we have 261.5k visa available Fy20? 5.2k for each eb1,2,3-India?

Quote:

Originally Posted by asankaran

EB2 India didn't even get full quota of 2800 visa. What a shame, forget about spill over!!

Those people would have downgraded and were given GC in EB3. You can see the Eb3 numbers it is more than 2803. Eb3-ROW was backlogged from February 2020.

Eb1 does not need any more visas this FY as they are current.
03-16-2021, 05:37 PM
LeoAugust

Quote:

Originally Posted by AceMan

Those people would have downgraded and were given GC in EB3. You can see the Eb3 numbers it is more than 2803. Eb3-ROW was backlogged from February 2020.

Eb1 does not need any more visas this FY as they are current.

For FY21 there was 121K SO. Can we see the impact on EB2/3I in next report? It is very demoralizing looking at this report.
03-16-2021, 06:18 PM
ak7419

Quote:

Originally Posted by AceMan

Those people would have downgraded and were given GC in EB3. You can see the Eb3 numbers it is more than 2803. Eb3-ROW was backlogged from February 2020.

Eb1 does not need any more visas this FY as they are current.

Aceman, are you saying that for example, EB2I candidates like me who filed in 2012 and waiting to get an RFE from TSC, were already given/assigned visa number?
03-16-2021, 06:33 PM
AceMan

Quote:

Originally Posted by ak7419

Aceman, are you saying that for example, EB2I candidates like me who filed in 2012 and waiting to get an RFE from TSC, were already given/assigned visa number?

No, you are waiting for the visa number. You don't have one yet.
What I am proposing as a theory is people who downgraded from EB2 and got their GC in EB3 during the FY 2020 appears to be the key for missing numbers 2803-2599 = 204. It can also include people who may have upgraded to Eb1 as well. Nothing concrete to present it as an irrefutable fact.
03-16-2021, 06:39 PM
ak7419

Quote:

Originally Posted by AceMan

No, you are waiting for the visa number. You don't have one yet.
What I am proposing as a theory is people who downgraded from EB2 and got their GC in EB3 during the FY 2020 appears to be the key for missing numbers 2803-2599 = 204. It can also include people who may have upgraded to Eb1 as well. Nothing concrete to present it as an irrefutable fact.

Thanks Aceman. Can you please clarify something for me? When you say I am waiting for visa number - does USCIS request this visa number when they blow the dust from my file or do they request monthly quota of visa numbers?
03-16-2021, 07:51 PM
android09

Quote:

Originally Posted by ak7419

Thanks Aceman. Can you please clarify something for me? When you say I am waiting for visa number - does USCIS request this visa number when they blow the dust from my file or do they request monthly quota of visa numbers?

AceMan and others can confirm, but from what I have learned, the adjudicating officer after completion of the I-485 interview, requests the number from the system. Only when they are ready to approve the case.
03-16-2021, 08:09 PM
Moveon

Quote:

Originally Posted by android09

AceMan and others can confirm, but from what I have learned, the adjudicating officer after completion of the I-485 interview, requests the number from the system. Only when they are ready to approve the case.

Yes think of it as an account into which Visa numbers are added . This year the admin decided to SO early in the year rather than wait till the last Quarter so the account has many visas. This account is based on ROW , India , China etc. After all the process is completed the officer requests for a number and if there is/are numbers left in the account for the primary and dependents it will be assigned and the case moves to approved and the card(s) is issued . Else Its Pre-adjudicated and will lead to a faster process when the account is refilled .
That is why you need to respond to the RFE ASAP. I feel bad for the TX Service Center folks as they are getting penalized for no fault of theirs. People way behind them (I included ) have filed their RFEs and some even getting GCs with Nov 2009 PDs, while they wait for their RFEs with PD in September. Now if Visa numbers get exhausted in the coming months people with earlier PDs need to wait for the next fiscal SO. its a double whammy for these folks. First Screwed by Country quota and then having been assigned to TX Service Center. Wishing them luck , I hope the system corrects in the coming weeks.
03-16-2021, 11:01 PM
nbk1976

Quote:

Originally Posted by Moveon

I received a response to the Supp-J as "i485j confirmation of bona fide job offer or request for job portability sec 204(j)" . Notice Type : "Receipt Notice Fee Waived" .
Looks like they will send the actual response to the Supp-J soon.
We had responded to the RFEs in Jan for the Supplement-J and Medicals .

Any idea on what that means for the Processing of our application, our Dec 2009 dates went current this month.

If you have responded to the RFEs and you are current now, it should not take more than 30 days for them to approve your application. That has been the pattern.

Which is your service center?

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