EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

It almost never makes sense to delay what you need to do for your career because of what is happening in the GC process. You have EAD, you can file AC21 for a new job - so why wait. I have personally known a person who was denied a bonus and promotion because the company thought that the person is "not a flight risk" since the person does not have a GC. It is all too common.

BTW - I do think that PD for EB2-I will cross Dec 2008 by the end of this FY (i.e by Oct 2014).

Quote:

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Originally Posted by anasha1721

Hi qesehmk,
I am a frequent visitor to this forum and I like the detailed analysis and forecast provided by you and your colleagues. Usually I am not affected by visa bulletin retrogression as I have a steady job and love what I am doing. But this retrogression in this visa bulletin has left me worried about my career and future. I haven't had a promotion in quite a while and I think not having a GC is one of the reasons. I have started looking at other opportunities and planning to switch using my EAD. Having said that do you think there are chances the dates might move to Dec 2008 and beyond in july 2014. Would appreciate your response.

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Thanks for your response imdeng.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by imdeng

It almost never makes sense to delay what you need to do for your career because of what is happening in the GC process. You have EAD, you can file AC21 for a new job - so why wait. I have personally known a person who was denied a bonus and promotion because the company thought that the person is "not a flight risk" since the person does not have a GC. It is all too common.

BTW - I do think that PD for EB2-I will cross Dec 2008 by the end of this FY (i.e by Oct 2014).

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A big thank you to all the gurus who share all the analysis and insights about PD movements.
Can one of you predict the net reduction in the known EB3 I pending inventory before the end of FY2014 which includes portings, SO and stipulated visa allocation to EB3 I.
Last year it was around 14000 visas. Can we expect the same or more in 2014?

Thank you very much in advance

Amul

Quote:

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

I am one such person. I left with my EAD. My manager was shocked and offered me a 30% raise on the spot. I declined politely and left on good terms. The opportunities I have had since I left are amazing and I can see my career has been fast tracked - I joined a small and dynamic firm at a substantially higher pay, greater responsibility and great career advancement options. I always had a super steady job but I saw that the raises were progressively reducing, my responsibilities were not expanding, and my title was going through meaningless "senior", "senior II" and "senior III" progressions. It was not bad, but that party wouldn't last forever. Once you hit your 40s, you are on the chopping block unless you have ascended high enough to be a decision maker. Always remember that.

I have always viewed the EAD as a GC. Of course it has to have that "same or similar" thing with it. Eventually, I want to change my career completely by doing something new, but that time is not now, and I am thankful for what the EAD did to me (and to my spouse too).

I would go as far as and say this: Even if you jeopardize your GC, bite the bullet and do the right thing. Take the job with the best long term prospects. Your PD is locked. You can always start the whole thing again. If you waste your precious productive years waiting for the GC in your company, you might find it is too late to change.

Good luck,

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I think this makes sense. Thanks for posting.

Last year seems to be a special case - perhaps some of EB3-ROW numbers moved to EB3-I since there weren't enough documantarily qualified candidates by the end of FY to finish the quota. That should not happen any more with EB3-ROW in 2011 and perhaps further movements in coming months. So EB3-I should go back to its steady average of the inventory declining by about 6K per year.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by amulchandra

A big thank you to all the gurus who share all the analysis and insights about PD movements.
Can one of you predict the net reduction in the known EB3 I pending inventory before the end of FY2014 which includes portings, SO and stipulated visa allocation to EB3 I.
Last year it was around 14000 visas. Can we expect the same or more in 2014?

Thank you very much in advance

Amul

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Entirely agree SportsFan. Also - did your post count get reset or something - I see 59 there and it should be in several hundreds - I have been reading your posts for quite some time now. Or are there multiple SportsFans around??

Quote:

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

I am one such person. I left with my EAD. My manager was shocked and offered me a 30% raise on the spot. I declined politely and left on good terms. The opportunities I have had since I left are amazing and I can see my career has been fast tracked - I joined a small and dynamic firm at a substantially higher pay, greater responsibility and great career advancement options. I always had a super steady job but I saw that the raises were progressively reducing, my responsibilities were not expanding, and my title was going through meaningless "senior", "senior II" and "senior III" progressions. It was not bad, but that party wouldn't last forever. Once you hit your 40s, you are on the chopping block unless you have ascended high enough to be a decision maker. Always remember that.

I have always viewed the EAD as a GC. Of course it has to have that "same or similar" thing with it. Eventually, I want to change my career completely by doing something new, but that time is not now, and I am thankful for what the EAD did to me (and to my spouse too).

I would go as far as and say this: Even if you jeopardize your GC, bite the bullet and do the right thing. Take the job with the best long term prospects. Your PD is locked. You can always start the whole thing again. If you waste your precious productive years waiting for the GC in your company, you might find it is too late to change.

Good luck,

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

I am one such person. I left with my EAD. My manager was shocked and offered me a 30% raise on the spot. I declined politely and left on good terms. The opportunities I have had since I left are amazing and I can see my career has been fast tracked - I joined a small and dynamic firm at a substantially higher pay, greater responsibility and great career advancement options. I always had a super steady job but I saw that the raises were progressively reducing, my responsibilities were not expanding, and my title was going through meaningless "senior", "senior II" and "senior III" progressions. It was not bad, but that party wouldn't last forever. Once you hit your 40s, you are on the chopping block unless you have ascended high enough to be a decision maker. Always remember that.

I have always viewed the EAD as a GC. Of course it has to have that "same or similar" thing with it. Eventually, I want to change my career completely by doing something new, but that time is not now, and I am thankful for what the EAD did to me (and to my spouse too).

I would go as far as and say this: Even if you jeopardize your GC, bite the bullet and do the right thing. Take the job with the best long term prospects. Your PD is locked. You can always start the whole thing again. If you waste your precious productive years waiting for the GC in your company, you might find it is too late to change.

Good luck,

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The irony is that the "same or similar" thing is what's keeping me in my current job. I work in management consulting and the only reason for me to change jobs would be to get something that doesn't need me to travel so much. But the "same or similar" clause makes it tricky. Can't wait for summer 2014.

That's quite painful. Especially so if one has kids.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by vizcard

The irony is that the "same or similar" thing is what's keeping me in my current job. I work in management consulting and the only reason for me to change jobs would be to get something that doesn't need me to travel so much. But the "same or similar" clause makes it tricky. Can't wait for summer 2014.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

I agree, consulting can get brutal sometimes. Well, all of this will end by August 2014 for you.

I wonder if AC21 was designed for situations like ours (retrogression for years). It's just a vague law. We play on the same side of it, although I wonder if someone had a slightly different experience "stretching the same or similar boundary a tad too much" and getting away with it.

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Guys, guys wait i hear my echo :) H1B waiting for GC , could not move job, sick with the current long time job , hard to make decisions because have to consider kids.
All makes life harder, but personally thinking deeper in detail, do not know if giving up and leaving the country would buy any peace. The green on the other side is mostly a mirage. On the whole this waiting for PD is a vanavasam.

Hi, My PD is Oct 2007 with EB3 approved I-140., but I am waiting for Eb2 PERM approval so i can port it. When Can I expect that dates will be back to Oct 2007 again? My h1 (8th year) is expiring in Oct 2014. Orginally i thought these dates will not change ,so once my Eb2 Perm is approved i can go for I-140 , EAD, 485 bla bla... but now i am concerned if i have to file another h1 extension ? Any idea what would the best ?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by shrithrj

Hi, My PD is Oct 2007 with EB3 approved I-140., but I am waiting for Eb2 PERM approval so i can port it. When Can I expect that dates will be back to Oct 2007 again? My h1 (8th year) is expiring in Oct 2014. Orginally i thought these dates will not change ,so once my Eb2 Perm is approved i can go for I-140 , EAD, 485 bla bla... but now i am concerned if i have to file another h1 extension ? Any idea what would the best ?

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You should be current kin July 2014.

Thanks for responding. If it is current, should i Still go for H1 Extension or file for EAD? As my H1 expires in Oct 2014, Can i Wait till Sep and file H1?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by shrithrj

Thanks for responding. If it is current, should i Still go for H1 Extension or file for EAD? As my H1 expires in Oct 2014, Can i Wait till Sep and file H1?

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You don't NEED to go for an extension. You can always switch to the EAD assuming you keep it valid constantly. I have both H1 and EAD because my company pays for it. So at that point its a financial decision. As for timing, I think if you get a receipt notice you are ok. So basically you would need to file early in Sept rather than later.

It's always a good idea to be on H1 even while 485 is pending. Because in case 485 is denied then without H1 you are out of status immediately.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by shrithrj

Thanks for responding. If it is current, should i Still go for H1 Extension or file for EAD? As my H1 expires in Oct 2014, Can i Wait till Sep and file H1?

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It is always suggestible to keep H1 valid till your 485 is approved. For some reason if your 485 ended up in trouble you will be immediately out of status. So insist your employer for H1 extn. He/She may or may not agree because it is more money for them. However for safety reason you should always get your H1 extension.

Coming to filing the extension, once you get the receipt number you can be country waiting for the decision for 254 days. Hence choose a date/month which will keep you in the safe boundary. If you feel sept is better for it, you can do it in sept. However just make sure you get the receipt number before your current H1 is expired.

Can any one of our gurus explain where the visa numbers for all EB2 I approvals in Nov came from. Is there a way to logically explain it ?
I got my green card yesterday but I wasnt expecting it at all since usually when DOS retrogresses severely, the visa numbers become internally unavailable within days ?

I guess they are still processing for Nov 2008 applications. new dates are only effective from Dec.

If you look at the demand, inventory numbers, and other factors this is what we can conclude. As every one knows USCIS FY is Oct - Sept. So by end of September visa numbers will get reset. When you look at 2013 scenario it had put enormous pressure on USCIS and DOS not to waste the visa numbers. So considering there will be possible FB to EB spill over and other factors what they did is they consumed yearly quota (2800) in Oct, Nov itself. That is from where these approvals are coming. It is almost imminent that we will have some spill over from FB and other categories in summer. That is when they are going to move the dates forward based on the quantity available at that time. Is it a correct thing to do ? may not be. But USCIS is doing trail and error every year to pick best way to handle :)

I can't wait for the next demand data!

I got my birth certificate translation done from www.rev.com and I got RFE for that; officer could not find my translated birth certificate. That is lame.

Anyway, I am planning to resend same translation copy, (its a pdf that I printed out). Is it required to send original translation? because rev.com send translation copy with their seal as pdf, but never hard copy.

Is there any other way, anyone can suggest to get translation done in 24 hours? I heard someone said, I can get translation done and get my friend attestation, and that also work?

One more thing, I never had birth certificate, so I got one issued from India in 2007. So issue date is 2007 while I born before way before 1980. So sometime officer gets confused as why issue date is not matching with birth date. Did anyone had such issue? Any help will be appreciated as I want to send this by tomorrow itself to not waste even a single day before Nov. 27th, after that date retrogression will be started :(
Please help me, if you have any such experince or knowledge. Thanks in advance.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by primus

I got my birth certificate translation done from www.rev.com and I got RFE for that; officer could not find my translated birth certificate. That is lame.

Anyway, I am planning to resend same translation copy, (its a pdf that I printed out). Is it required to send original translation? because rev.com send translation copy with their seal as pdf, but never hard copy.

Is there any other way, anyone can suggest to get translation done in 24 hours? I heard someone said, I can get translation done and get my friend attestation, and that also work?

One more thing, I never had birth certificate, so I got one issued from India in 2007. So issue date is 2007 while I born before way before 1980. So sometime officer gets confused as why issue date is not matching with birth date. Did anyone had such issue? Any help will be appreciated as I want to send this by tomorrow itself to not waste even a single day before Nov. 27th, after that date retrogression will be started :(
Please help me, if you have any such experince or knowledge. Thanks in advance.

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Primus
I don't have personal experience but there is a sub forum here dedicated to BC RFEs. Check that out. There was tons if discussion in early 2011.

Congratulations SeattLet - you are first one cribbing about getting your GC too quickly :-)

I don't know if any of us *know* where the numbers are coming from. They do have a decent idea of what the future demand pattern is - and if they feel fine about releasing some numbers early in the FY - then I guess I am pretty okay with it. My personal feel is that they are looking at EB2-ROW coming in slow, EB1 (perhaps, not likely) coming in a little slow and FB likely to give some numbers away to EB. It really doesn't matter anyway though - all numbers need to be tied together by the end of the FY - so any imbalance being created right now will get corrected in Summer 2014.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by seattlet

Can any one of our gurus explain where the visa numbers for all EB2 I approvals in Nov came from. Is there a way to logically explain it ?
I got my green card yesterday but I wasnt expecting it at all since usually when DOS retrogresses severely, the visa numbers become internally unavailable within days ?

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by vizcard

I can't wait for the next demand data!

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Seriously... The wait is killing...

I hope we get the DD in December at least...

January I-485 inventory is the most awaited... That should give us a very good picture of FY2014 and the way the dates will move in Summer of 2014.

The only thing uscis is good at : not releasing useful data.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Jagan01

Seriously... The wait is killing...

I hope we get the DD in December at least...

January I-485 inventory is the most awaited... That should give us a very good picture of FY2014 and the way the dates will move in Summer of 2014.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

It's always a good idea to be on H1 even while 485 is pending. Because in case 485 is denied then without H1 you are out of status immediately.

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Does this hold true even when the initial 6 yr quota of H1 is completed and a person is on the 3 yr increments based on approved I140?

I am currently in this situation,Have my EAD but still on H1 which expires 06/2014.Employer wants to renew but I don't want to go through the hassle of the renewal process

Thanks in advance for your clarification (s)

Welcome to forum Kinnera.

Yes indeed. It is always better to Have H1 status in addition to AOS pending. Simply AOS pending is dangerous and if the case is denied, then you have no option than going back to your country ASAP.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by KinneraK

Does this hold true even when the initial 6 yr quota of H1 is completed and a person is on the 3 yr increments based on approved I140?

I am currently in this situation,Have my EAD but still on H1 which expires 06/2014.Employer wants to renew but I don't want to go through the hassle of the renewal process

Thanks in advance for your clarification (s)

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Q and Gurus,

I have been an active reader of this forum a little over an year. Never thought I would register and post something as I am not good at any sort of math you guys do with these predictions.
Commending all the efforts every one is contributing to this forum I would like to share a first hand info that one my spouse's friend got their GC cards last week and their prioroty is EB2-I in the first Q of 2010, they have applied 485 when the dates were current in 2012.

With I-485 Inventory out there and this info any predictions for my Priority?
EB2I | PD: 10/01/2009 | Missed the boat in 2012 for filing I-485 due to employment change.

p.s Modified the post in bold

My friend's PD was Sep 2013 in EB1 and he got GC approved in first week of Nov.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by MrIndia

Q and Gurus,

I have been an active reader of this forum a little over an year. Never thought I would register and post something as I am not good at any sort of math you guys do with these predictions.
Commending all the efforts every one is contributing to this forum I would like to share a first hand info that one my spouse's friend got their GC cards and their prioroty is EB2-I in the first Q of 2010.

With I-485 Inventory out there and this info any predictions for my Priority?
EB2I | PD: 10/01/2009 | Missed the boat in 2012 for filing I-485 due to employment change.

---

Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Welcome to forum Kinnera.

Yes indeed. It is always better to Have H1 status in addition to AOS pending. Simply AOS pending is dangerous and if the case is denied, then you have no option than going back to your country ASAP.

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Qesehmk,

Thanks for the warm welcome and the clarifications :)

Are you telling me: Even though my H1 renewal is based on a pending I40, denied I485 still keeps me in status for the remaining validity period on the H1 but further renewals might not be possible because I am over the initial 6 yr quota.

I was under the impression that since my initial 6 yr quota was long gone, it doesn't really matter if I am on H1 or EAD because god forbid if my I485 is denied
I will be out of status starting immediately and will be required to leave the country and can't come back until after a year?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by primus

I got my birth certificate translation done from www.rev.com and I got RFE for that; officer could not find my translated birth certificate. That is lame.

Anyway, I am planning to resend same translation copy, (its a pdf that I printed out). Is it required to send original translation? because rev.com send translation copy with their seal as pdf, but never hard copy.

Is there any other way, anyone can suggest to get translation done in 24 hours? I heard someone said, I can get translation done and get my friend attestation, and that also work?

One more thing, I never had birth certificate, so I got one issued from India in 2007. So issue date is 2007 while I born before way before 1980. So sometime officer gets confused as why issue date is not matching with birth date. Did anyone had such issue? Any help will be appreciated as I want to send this by tomorrow itself to not waste even a single day before Nov. 27th, after that date retrogression will be started :(
Please help me, if you have any such experince or knowledge. Thanks in advance.

---

Hi Primus,

If the DOB is years before the issued date on the BC then affidavits from Parents can be included in the application package. I included the BC and the affidavits pointed
out that the BC issue date is well after the yr of birth

I had 2 BCs (don't ask me why) one from 1986(my yr of birth) and one from 2008. I included affidavits from my parents and later onmy attorney said
that's what he normally suggests to avoid RFEs

Quote:

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Originally Posted by KinneraK

Qesehmk,

Thanks for the warm welcome and the clarifications :)

Are you telling me: Even though my H1 renewal is based on a pending I40, denied I485 still keeps me in status for the remaining validity period on the H1 but further renewals might not be possible because I am over the initial 6 yr quota.

I was under the impression that since my initial 6 yr quota was long gone, it doesn't really matter if I am on H1 or EAD because god forbid if my I485 is denied
I will be out of status starting immediately and will be required to leave the country and can't come back until after a year?

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KinneraK,

YES, H1 is valid until its validity date even if the I-485 is denied/ I-140 revoked by employer/ I-140 cancelled for fraud. Once approved H1 approval becomes independent from the respective I-140. You can transfer H1 from Emp A to Emp B ..... with a valid I-140.

Even after the denial of I-485, the I-140 is still valid provided the petition is not revoked or cancelled.

Kinnera, yes that is what I am saying.

Kanmani explained it even further saying that a denied 485 is just that. It doesn't invalidate I-140 nor H1.

p.s. - Not related to your situation but purely for theoretical discussion - Kanmani's point is technically perfect given that 485 is the beneficiary's thing vs I-140 and H1 are employer petitions. So if a person's 485 is denied without USCIS finding any fault with the underlying I-140 - s/he can reapply after addressing the reason why 485 was denied.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by KinneraK

Are you telling me: Even though my H1 renewal is based on a pending I40, denied I485 still keeps me in status for the remaining validity period on the H1 but further renewals might not be possible because I am over the initial 6 yr quota.

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Sorry if this is late news

http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/gree...-485-inventory

Quote:

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Originally Posted by KinneraK

Hi Primus,

If the DOB is years before the issued date on the BC then affidavits from Parents can be included in the application package. I included the BC and the affidavits pointed
out that the BC issue date is well after the yr of birth

I had 2 BCs (don't ask me why) one from 1986(my yr of birth) and one from 2008. I included affidavits from my parents and later onmy attorney said
that's what he normally suggests to avoid RFEs

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Hi KinneraK,

Do you mind sharing the affidavit template? And when did you apply for 485 and what is your PD?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Jagan01

Seriously... The wait is killing...

I hope we get the DD in December at least...

January I-485 inventory is the most awaited... That should give us a very good picture of FY2014 and the way the dates will move in Summer of 2014.

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Do you expect the overall EB2I inventory in January to be higher than that of what the 10/01/2013 inventory shows ? Or would it be lower?

January inventory will be much lower than 10/01/2013 inventory.

The 10/01/2013 inventory has accounted for most of the demand.
1. Demand of the first time applicants that files in Aug/Sep (These are mainly porters that are filing first time).
2. All outstanding demand as of 10/01/2013 from original EB2 applicants (very small)

The only demand coming in after 10/01/2013 is the interfiling cases that are picked up by USCIS. I think 70% of interfiling cases were cleared before Oct 01, 2013. So these interfiling cases would not be much.

As far as supply goes:
1. At least 55% of the first time applicants (Aug+Sep) have been cleared in FY2014.
2. Most of the interfiling cases are cleared by now
3. Most of the original EB2 filers are also cleared

To summarize, the Jan 2014 inventory should be much much lower compared to Oct 2013 inventory.
Here is what I expect:
Applications before:
Jan 1, 2008 --> 1k
Jan 1, 2009 --> 10k

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Jagan01

January inventory will be much lower than 10/01/2013 inventory.

The 10/01/2013 inventory has accounted for most of the demand.
1. Demand of the first time applicants that files in Aug/Sep (These are mainly porters that are filing first time).
2. All outstanding demand as of 10/01/2013 from original EB2 applicants (very small)

The only demand coming in after 10/01/2013 is the interfiling cases that are picked up by USCIS. I think 70% of interfiling cases were cleared before Oct 01, 2013. So these interfiling cases would not be much.

As far as supply goes:
1. At least 55% of the first time applicants (Aug+Sep) have been cleared in FY2014.
2. Most of the interfiling cases are cleared by now
3. Most of the original EB2 filers are also cleared

To summarize, the Jan 2014 inventory should be much much lower compared to Oct 2013 inventory.
Here is what I expect:
Applications before:
Jan 1, 2008 --> 1k
Jan 1, 2009 --> 10k

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I think you maybe confusing demand and inventory. If inventory was that low there would be forward movement.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by vizcard

I think you maybe confusing demand and inventory. If inventory was that low there would be forward movement.

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Viz,

Inventory means the I-485 inventory. I am not confusing it with the Demand Data.

We shall see once the January inventory data (I-485 Inventory released by USCIS) is out. I stick with the numbers I have given above. I believe it will be much much lower than the I-485 inventory published in the month of Oct (By USCIS).

I do not quite understand why you say that the dates should move ahead if the inventory numbers were as low as I am predicting. Simple example can be the Feb 2013 visa bulletin. The dates stayed at Sep 04. The inventory before that was like 500. The dates did not move ahead. CO is anticipating porting to consume the monthly allocations hence the dates would not move ahead.

We shall sync back when I-485 inventory is published for January.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Jagan01

Viz,

Inventory means the I-485 inventory. I am not confusing it with the Demand Data.

We shall see once the January inventory data (I-485 Inventory released by USCIS) is out. I stick with the numbers I have given above. I believe it will be much much lower than the I-485 inventory published in the month of Oct (By USCIS).

I do not quite understand why you say that the dates should move ahead if the inventory numbers were as low as I am predicting. Simple example can be the Feb 2013 visa bulletin. The dates stayed at Sep 04. The inventory before that was like 500. The dates did not move ahead. CO is anticipating porting to consume the monthly allocations hence the dates would not move ahead.

We shall sync back when I-485 inventory is published for January.

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Inventory data was not published in February 2013. Below are links from Jan and April 2013. Jan had 42k+ in inventory and April had almost 43k for EB2I

Jan 2013 - http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/f...01_15_2013.pdf

April 2013 - http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/f...13%20Final.pdf

Quote:

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Originally Posted by vizcard

Inventory data was not published in February 2013. Below are links from Jan and April 2013. Jan had 42k+ in inventory and April had almost 43k for EB2I

Jan 2013 - http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/f...01_15_2013.pdf

April 2013 - http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/f...13%20Final.pdf

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Viz,

January 2013 inventory is the closest one to Feb 2013 visa bulletin. The visa bulletin of Feb 2013 would have been published around Jan 10, 2013 and hence January 2013 inventory is the best reference point.

The link you provided is the exact link that I was talking about. http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/f...01_15_2013.pdf

My point is that according to Jan 2013 inventory there were 550 applications before SEP 2004 which was the date for EB2I in Feb bulletin.

The inventory before Sep 2004 was very low yet the dates did not move ahead. I was just trying to point out that your statement "If inventory was that low then dates should move ahead" is not necessarily true. It has been proven in past that if CO thinks that porting will consume the monthly allocations then dates wont move ahead even if the inventory was 500 or 400 etc.