EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by rosharma

Gurus,

Do you believe the porting rate (EB3I to EB2I) in FY 2014 will be same as in FY 2013? It seems Porters till July-2007 will be assigned visa numbers in FY 2013 itself and rest will at least be pre-adjudicated. Eb3 folks (post Jan-2008) may apply for porting (considering the fact that you need min 5 year experience before you can apply for porting) but I believe the process takes time and the total interfiling may be less for that period. The Eb3 folks, who missed the boat this time around (the ones whose applications are still in process), may still generate some demand – but it should be much less compare to FY 2013. Please advise.

---

Welcome to the forum.

I believe the rate of porting from all years will remain unchanged, but at the same time, the actual number of Porting cases approved in FY2014 will be less than will be approved in FY2013.

Because visas ran out in April 2012 last year, many months worth of porting cases have been shifted to FY2013 which will result in an abnormally high number this year.

That won't be the case for FY2014.

But people will still be porting with PD from 2003 onwards will be completing the process and waiting for their PD to become Current. Most of those with a PD before August 2007 will already have an I-485 under EB3. Those who do have to file an I-485 for the first time when their PD becomes Current late in the FY, probably will not be approved in FY2014.

As you observe, the porting process is a long, arduous and expensive business and there is a conveyor like effect of various people at different positions in the process.

Hi all,

Have a few questions on FB GC process. Can anyone please help?

1. Now that the dates are current how long does it typically take for getting a GC if one applies in August?

2. What is the typical attorney fee (apart from the DHS standard fees) for one applicant?

3. The VB mentions about retrogression in a few months. What has caused this forward movement to 'C'? Is it like a pipeline build-up like what happened with the EB category in 2011/2012?

4. How far is it likely to retrogress for F2A India?

I would really appreciate any inputs, thanks!

P.S. I am unable to see an FB thread and hence I am posting it here. Moderators, please feel free to move/ delete once answered, thanks!

Thoughts inline, but i don't know enough about the subject.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by mysati

Hi all,

Have a few questions on FB GC process. Can anyone please help?

1. Now that the dates are current how long does it typically take for getting a GC if one applies in August?

That would depend on many factors. The I-130 would have to be approved for that to happen. The only statistics I could find for I-130 processing were from USCIS as of April 30, 2013

CSC -- I-130 -- Petition for Alien Relative -- Permanent resident filling for a spouse or child under 21 -- November 15, 2011
VSC -- I-130 -- Petition for Alien Relative -- Permanent resident filling for a spouse or child under 21 -- March 19, 2012

but I think FB cases may be sent to Chicago. Whether they are distributed from there, I have no idea.

You may want to look at the Trackitt Tracker for I-130 and F2A adjusting within the USA. A quick look says the I-130 takes anywhere between 130 days to over a year to approve. About 6 months seems to be the median time from looking at a page of data.

You could not apply until the primary becomes a GC holder themselves.

2. What is the typical attorney fee (apart from the DHS standard fees) for one applicant?

No idea.

3. The VB mentions about retrogression in a few months. What has caused this forward movement to 'C'? Is it like a pipeline build-up like what happened with the EB category in 2011/2012?

It is not simply to build up Inventory. As of November 2012, DOS alone had 220k F2A cases. Most cases use Consular Processing. As the VB says, it has been caused because a lower number of people than expected are proceeding with their cases.

Quote:

---

Despite the fact that there are large amounts of registered F2A demand, currently there are not enough applicants who are actively pursuing final action on their case to fully utilize all of the available numbers.

---

4. How far is it likely to retrogress for F2A India?

No idea. Probably to some time in 2012 if I had to guess.

I would really appreciate any inputs, thanks!

P.S. I am unable to see an FB thread and hence I am posting it here. Moderators, please feel free to move/ delete once answered, thanks!

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Spectator

Thoughts inline, but i don't know enough about the subject.

---

Hi Spec,

Thank you for the reply. I really appreciate your help. I have one more question though.

When does one get an EAD and AP through this process, after the I-130 is approved or 3-4 months after just filing for I-130 and 485(per the standard processing time)?

Thanks again!

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by mysati

Hi Spec,

Thank you for the reply. I really appreciate your help. I have one more question though.

When does one get an EAD and AP through this process, after the I-130 is approved or 3-4 months after just filing for I-130 and 485(per the standard processing time)?

Thanks again!

---

The EAD and AP are benefits of the I-485 process. The I-130 does not need to be approved to receive that benefit. The wait time to receive them should not be different to an EB case. The USCIS Processing Times shows 3 months.

PS:- I added to my previous post about I-130 approval times and a suggestion to look at the Trackitt Tracker (with link).

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Spectator

The EAD and AP are benefits of the I-485 process. The I-130 does not need to be approved to receive that benefit. The wait time to receive them should not be different to an EB case. The USCIS Processing Times shows 3 months.

PS:- I added to my previous post about I-130 approval times and a suggestion to look at the Trackitt Tracker (with link).

---

Thanks a ton! Really admire your knowledge on the subject!

Hi Spec,

I really appreciate your inputs. So in FY 2014 there won’t be 7K EB3-EB2 porters (as was the case in FY 2013). My priority date is Feb-2009 and EB2-I’s 2008 current backlog is alone 16K. The reason I am asking about porting is because I am trying to guesstimate if I have any realistic chance of getting greened in FY 2014.

Hi all,
I have a question - Considering that the priority date of May 2010 EB-2 I was current last year , what percentage of applicants till that priority date would have been included in the demand data?
As i would assume that 75% of applicants who were current would have already applied for I-485 and hence now once the priority date has moved to jan 2008 , not many new applications should filed? only the existing pending applications would be adjudicated.

What is the realistic timeline for end of October 2010 EB-2 I (for all practical purposes Nov 2010 ) to be current ?

I am a newbie and try to follow the comments of the experts , but posting for the first time.

Regards

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by mysati

Thanks a ton! Really admire your knowledge on the subject!

---

You're welcome, although I do not think I do have particularly good knowledge of the FB system.

One other thought, which I hope is inapplicable.

The provisions of 245(k), which allow up to 180 days combined time Out Of Status and Unauthorised Employment since the last admission to the USA, only apply to EB cases in Categories EB1-EB4.

There is no such protection for FB cases. If there is any time Out of Status or Unauthorized Employment since the last admission, then the person would not be eligible for Adjustment Of Status within the USA.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by rosharma

Hi Spec,

I really appreciate your inputs. So in FY 2014 there won’t be 7K EB3-EB2 porters (as was the case in FY 2013). My priority date is Feb-2009 and EB2-I’s 2008 current backlog is alone 16K. The reason I am asking about porting is because I am trying to guesstimate if I have any realistic chance of getting greened in FY 2014.

---

rosharma,

It should return to the normal rate, whatever that is - maybe 3-4k.

Unless there are substantial unused FB number this FY which can be added to next year's EB allocation, unfortunately I don't think reaching your PD would be possible if EB2-I finishes this year anywhere in the first half of 2008.

Let's see what the September VB brings.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by inspired_p

Hi all,
I have a question - Considering that the priority date of May 2010 EB-2 I was current last year , what percentage of applicants till that priority date would have been included in the demand data?
As i would assume that 75% of applicants who were current would have already applied for I-485 and hence now once the priority date has moved to jan 2008 , not many new applications should filed? only the existing pending applications would be adjudicated.

What is the realistic timeline for end of October 2010 EB-2 I (for all practical purposes Nov 2010 ) to be current ?

I am a newbie and try to follow the comments of the experts , but posting for the first time.

Regards

---

Welcome to the forum.

I'd say minimum summer FY15 (in absence of immigration reform and any weird events). Rule of thumb is PD+5 yrs. But I imagine towards the end of FY15 we'll be closing in on mid-late 2009 PDs and CO might want to build inventory again.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by vizcard

Welcome to the forum.

I'd say minimum summer FY15 (in absence of immigration reform and any weird events). Rule of thumb is PD+5 yrs. But I imagine towards the end of FY15 we'll be closing in on mid-late 2009 PDs and CO might want to build inventory again.

---

I think, rule of thumb needs to be updated to PD+6 years. Viz, we would be lucky if we get greened by Aug 2014 (PD + 6).

As spec explained in prevous posts, outlook for 2014 isn't really great. All traditional sources for SO are drying up and without legislative relief, PD+7 isn't unlikely in near future.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Spectator

Most of those with a PD before August 2007 will already have an I-485 under EB3.

---

I have seen this statement repeatedly, but don't quite understand - did EB3I dates advance till August 2007 at some point in order for folks from EB3I to have I-485s already on file? If so, are these included in EB2I demand data or is that counted against EB2I demand only after the date is current and an interfiling letter has been sent?

Many thanks in advance for your clarification.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by PD2008AUG25

I think, rule of thumb needs to be updated to PD+6 years. Viz, we would be lucky if we get greened by Aug 2014 (PD + 6).

As spec explained in prevous posts, outlook for 2014 isn't really great. All traditional sources for SO are drying up and without legislative relief, PD+7 isn't unlikely in near future.

---

i agree in theory. Although if last year wasn't such as cluster in terms of random approvals, our PD would have been current this year. So for now I'm still sticking with PD+5 with a bearish outlook.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by rferni

I have seen this statement repeatedly, but don't quite understand - did EB3I dates advance till August 2007 at some point in order for folks from EB3I to have I-485s already on file? If so, are these included in EB2I demand data or is that counted against EB2I demand only after the date is current and an interfiling letter has been sent?

Many thanks in advance for your clarification.

---

Summer of 2007, everyone was made C. thats why a lot of EB3 have filed their 485s. We had a term called PWMB (People who missed the boat) for a while to refer to EB2s and EB3s who missed that window to file. (Ofcourse now we have a new set of PWMBs who missed out last year).

The EB3 folks who are porting will not show in EB2 demand data..although they do show in EB3 demand. When they become current, the interfiling is a technicality so they will be in teh demand but will most likely not be a demand data report as they will be cleared almost instantaneously (similar to how EB1 or EB2 ROW works).

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by rferni

I have seen this statement repeatedly, but don't quite understand - did EB3I dates advance till August 2007 at some point in order for folks from EB3I to have I-485s already on file? If so, are these included in EB2I demand data or is that counted against EB2I demand only after the date is current and an interfiling letter has been sent?

Many thanks in advance for your clarification.

---

The dates were Current for everybody except EB3-EW in July 2007.

PERM from Chicago was being approved in 2-3 days, although those at Atlanta were not quite so lucky. It was clear as EB2-I went through those dates last year that nearly everybody through about April 2007 was able to file a concurrent I-140/I-485 application. Depending where there the PERM was, the number unable to file an I-485 increases towards July 2007 but most people were still able to file. The date to file under the July 2007 VB was extended to August 17, 2007.

That's why people say that most cases with a PD before August 2007 in EB3 will already have an I-485 submitted.

Porting cases cannot be shown under EB2 until the PD under EB2 is Current (although some people differ in this opinion). Therefore, for cases that completed the interfiling process after May 2012 with a PD after August 2004, the date has never been Current under EB2 again and they do not currently form part of the EB2 Demand.

That will change on August 1, 2013. But since they will be Current, if they are adjudicated and a visa is requested, it will be immediately available, the case can be approved and it will not appear in the Demand Data published monthly. Only when the dates retrogress again and a visa can not be allocated when requested, will the case appear in the Demand Data.

I'm sure that is clear as mud.

Hi Gurus,

Mine is EB3 to Eb2 porting case with PD as 09 SEP 2008, I have not applied my 485 yet, Could you please provide a time frame considering the current demand when i can at least file 485 to get an EAD and AP.. Appreciate your responses..

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Spectator

The dates were Current for everybody except EB3-EW in July 2007.

---

Makes sense now - thank you for the information

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Spectator

Since they will be Current, if they are adjudicated and a visa is requested, it will be immediately available, the case can be approved and it will not appear in the Demand Data published monthly. Only when the dates retrogress again and a visa can not be allocated when requested, will the case appear in the Demand Data.

I'm sure that is clear as mud.

---

Interesting. So in addition to the 8050 EB2I numbers reported in the 6/7/2013 Demand Data (number of I-485s on file with priority dates before 01/01/2008), there could be several thousand EB3 porters in line with already adjudicated I-485s, waiting to be approved? Realistically, if that number is 3000 - 4000, there may be no more spillover left to move dates further, correct? Assuming this number is pre-adjudicated, will this porting number be known to the DOS prior to the release of the Sep 2013 visa bulletin?

In other words, between 08/01/2013 (when the august window for filing opens) and 08/10/2013 (when the DOS releases the Sep 2013 visa bulletin), would it be possible that the DOS would be staring down this scenario?
1. 8050 existing EB2I are pre-adjudicated and allocated visa numbers?
2. Anywhere between 3000 - 4000 EB3I filers with already pre-adjudicated I485s on file have filed interfiling letters and allocated visa numbers?

Again, very much appreciate your help and insight. As you may tell from my profile, my EB2I priority date is 01/04/2008 and I am curious to understand the math that led to the DOS establishing a cutoff 4 days before my priority date :)

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by rferni

Makes sense now - thank you for the information



Interesting. So in addition to the 8050 EB2I numbers reported in the 6/7/2013 Demand Data (number of I-485s on file with priority dates before 01/01/2008), there could be several thousand EB3 porters in line with already adjudicated I-485s, waiting to be approved? Realistically, if that number is 3000 - 4000, there may be no more spillover left to move dates further, correct? Assuming this number is pre-adjudicated, will this porting number be known to the DOS prior to the release of the Sep 2013 visa bulletin?

In other words, between 08/01/2013 (when the august window for filing opens) and 08/10/2013 (when the DOS releases the Sep 2013 visa bulletin), would it be possible that the DOS would be staring down this scenario?
1. 8050 existing EB2I are pre-adjudicated and allocated visa numbers?
2. Anywhere between 3000 - 4000 EB3I filers with already pre-adjudicated I485s on file have filed interfiling letters and allocated visa numbers?

Again, very much appreciate your help and insight. As you may tell from my profile, my EB2I priority date is 01/04/2008 and I am curious to understand the math that led to the DOS establishing a cutoff 4 days before my priority date :)

---

All of this was discussed a few pages back around the time the visa bulletin came out. Scan through those and see if you get what you need.

but short answer is ... general consensus is that dates will move in the Sept VB. How much - varies depends on who you ask.

Hello everyone,

I recently came across this forum and i will have to say, it is one of the very informative, to the point and one of the most civil forums i have seen. Now i am kind of addicted to it and check it every day. :)
I wanted to present my situation and see if any the experts here can enlighten me --

My PD is 08/04/2008, EB2I, Applied 485 in 04/2012, Renewed EAD in 02/2013 and now EAD is valid till 02/2015. I have been working as a consultant since my first H1 and just switched my employer and recently joined another consultant. Now my H1 is renewed till 05/2016 and my lawyer filed AC21 last week.

The project i am working on right now is a full time/work from home. But in actuality there is not much work. I am in support job and if no projects are going on then i have max of 15-20 hours of actual work every week.

1) What are the chances of me getting my GC in FY2014 if not in 2013 ?

2) Do you know if it would be ok to take on another job (if i find another work from home position ?)

3) If answer to (2) is yes, then would it have to be a consulting position (so that i am with the same employer) ? or i can join another company as full time employee/or consultant using my EAD ?

3) I asked my employer about finding another project for me and whether it would be ok to work on 2 projects and he said that they will have to file another LCA for the new position and then i can on multiple positions. But i am trying to find out if i can join another company as full time employee on EAD as i am sick of paying 20% to my employer and want to join the vendor directly so i can get higher billing rate for myself.

Thanks a lot and i really appreciate your help.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by PD2008AUG25

I think, rule of thumb needs to be updated to PD+6 years. Viz, we would be lucky if we get greened by Aug 2014 (PD + 6).

As spec explained in prevous posts, outlook for 2014 isn't really great. All traditional sources for SO are drying up and without legislative relief, PD+7 isn't unlikely in near future.

---

I gather when you say Summer or end of FY2015 that is April- sept 2015 .

That is really bleak prediction. I hope the dates become current before that even if CO wants to retrogress them again. Most of us would be happy with EAD/AP status for 2 years rather than getting a GC in quick 4 months after 2 years.
I dont see why they can't just get all the applications in and take their own sweet time adjudicating the GC applications

Regards

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Spectator

<snip>

Porting cases cannot be shown under EB2 until the PD under EB2 is Current (although some people differ in this opinion). Therefore, for cases that completed the interfiling process after May 2012 with a PD after August 2004, the date has never been Current under EB2 again and they do not currently form part of the EB2 Demand.

That will change on August 1, 2013. But since they will be Current, if they are adjudicated and a visa is requested, it will be immediately available, the case can be approved and it will not appear in the Demand Data published monthly. Only when the dates retrogress again and a visa can not be allocated when requested, will the case appear in the Demand Data.

I'm sure that is clear as mud.

---

You are absolutely right about porting cases not showing up in EB2 demand on the DOS side. USCIS, however, appears to have acquired the capability to convert EB3 applications to EB2 internally even though the PD is not current - despite what the AFM says. The agency is acting on interfiling requests and moving the applications to pending EB2 inventory (multiple Trackitt reports, personal experience)

I've always thought that a request for visa number had to be made or was generated automatically as soon as the converted application was flagged as pre-adjudicated in the new category, which would make it impossible to convert when the dates are not current. Perhaps they now have a way to add them without requesting a visa number, and pull up pre-adjudicated applications that haven't had a visa number requested for them when the dates become current. Or maybe it's just my beer fueled wishful thinking...

Anyhow, would you expect a reduction in EB3 DOS demand to happen immediately when USCIS reclassifies the EB3 applications as EB2, since they are effectively 'withdrawn' from a DOS standpoint? It would be interesting to see the reduction in EB3 demand data next month if that were the case, since it should provide a fairly accurate overall porting number. Thoughts?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by SenorMeow

You are absolutely right about porting cases not showing up in EB2 demand on the DOS side. USCIS, however, appears to have acquired the capability to convert EB3 applications to EB2 internally even though the PD is not current - despite what the AFM says. The agency is acting on interfiling requests and moving the applications to pending EB2 inventory (multiple Trackitt reports, personal experience)

I've always thought that a request for visa number had to be made or was generated automatically as soon as the converted application was flagged as pre-adjudicated in the new category, which would make it impossible to convert when the dates are not current. Perhaps they now have a way to add them without requesting a visa number, and pull up pre-adjudicated applications that haven't had a visa number requested for them when the dates become current. Or maybe it's just my beer fueled wishful thinking...

Anyhow, would you expect a reduction in EB3 DOS demand to happen immediately when USCIS reclassifies the EB3 applications as EB2, since they are effectively 'withdrawn' from a DOS standpoint? It would be interesting to see the reduction in EB3 demand data next month if that were the case, since it should provide a fairly accurate overall porting number. Thoughts?

---

The AFM only says the conversion of the basis of the I-485 cannot take place until the new Category is Current. That IMO opinion is the request for a visa under EB2 and approval.

The rest of the process that people call interfiling can still take place. The A-file can be consolidated with the all the information, an RFE can be raised for a written request from the applicant to be considered under EB2 when the dates become Current and the I-485 can be checked for any issues that need resolving for it to remain pre-adjudicated. There seems to be plenty of evidence that is happening. The case may even be filed in the staging area under EB2.

USCIS don't appear to be reflecting the new Category in their own Inventory - the April Inventory figures were fairly close to the Demand Data published around the same time.

CO has said, that for a time, the case will be shown under both EB2 and EB3. I have no idea how quickly the EB3 case disappears from the EB3 demand and how that is accomplished. Indiani has some slides from a recent AILA conference that mentioned it - perhaps they shed more light on the subject. Previously it has been reported:

Quote:

---

Mr. Oppenheim confirmed his previous comments that both cases for a person remain open (so it looks like two numbers are being used) if a person is upgrading from EB-3 to EB-2, and only when the green card is approved does the duplicate file number go away.

---

so there does appear to be some automation of the process.

People have previously thought the reduction in EB3 Demand would give some sort of handle on porting numbers. So far that hasn't really worked out. We'll just have to see if it is better this year. I've pretty much given up hope that the porting numbers can be calculated in any meaningful way from the figures available.

I'm not going to pretend I know how the system operates for porting cases, there isn't sufficient information to do that.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by vizcard

i agree in theory. Although if last year wasn't such as cluster in terms of random approvals, our PD would have been current this year. So for now I'm still sticking with PD+5 with a bearish outlook.

---

My understanding was, most of the lucky people who got GCs with PDs between 1 Jan 2008 and 31 Dec 2008 were mostly in earlier part of 2008. If that's true, we wouldn't be in much different place than where we are now. Final movement will still be off by 1-2 months, but not much.

What really scares me is potential lack of SOFADs in 2014. If FY 2013 ends somewhere in Feb-March 2008, It will require 6-7k EB2 + 4-5k porters(for fy 2014) = 10-12k visas for Aug 2008 to clear. With no FB spillover, and other things being similar to FY 2013, we could be very well waiting till Aug 2015.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by PD2008AUG25

My understanding was, most of the lucky people who got GCs with PDs between 1 Jan 2008 and 31 Dec 2008 were mostly in earlier part of 2008. If that's true, we wouldn't be in much different place than where we are now. Final movement will still be off by 1-2 months, but not much.

What really scares me is potential lack of SOFADs in 2014. If FY 2013 ends somewhere in Feb-March 2008, It will require 6-7k EB2 + 4-5k porters(for fy 2014) = 10-12k visas for Aug 2008 to clear. With no FB spillover, and other things being similar to FY 2013, we could be very well waiting till Aug 2015.

---

Maybe I'm being optimistic here but I don't know if there are 4-5K porters left between 2004 and wherever we end up this year (after we get done with this round). So if CO doesn't move dates again till July 2014, then you still have new porters who have to file and deal with the 485 processing lead time. Regardless, I think we'll have enough SOFAD to get to Oct 2008 if not Dec 2008. I believe we should get around 15k SOFAD next year (incl normal quota) ofcourse there is no mathematical basis for it YET.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by inspired_p

I gather when you say Summer or end of FY2015 that is April- sept 2015 .

That is really bleak prediction. I hope the dates become current before that even if CO wants to retrogress them again. Most of us would be happy with EAD/AP status for 2 years rather than getting a GC in quick 4 months after 2 years.
I dont see why they can't just get all the applications in and take their own sweet time adjudicating the GC applications

Regards

---

There's two ways to accomplish that.
1. Move the dates way in to the future (or C) so that people can file their 485s and EADs. But the risk here is of random approvals and over-allocating (basically what happened last year).
2. My preferred method - allow concurrent filing with I140 and approve as dates get current. Ofcourse this is a much bigger change and possibly needs legislative approval

Long story, short - ain't goint to happen any time soon

Spec

Do you plan to update your forecast for this FY before the next VB is released?

The reason I ask is because the PERM certifications for EB2 ROW has slowed down considerably and I was wondering if it will have any bearing on the COD.

Regards
Nat

With my June 19, 2008 PD, I am feeling less confident that I will be able to file for EAD this year. One thing I am wondering about for next year is, what is the outlook on EB-5 spillover? This year, I thought it did not yield any spillover because of the Ski-resort they are building in Vermont, but is there high demand projected even next year for EB-5?
http://goo.gl/lzKkq

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by natvyas

Spec

Do you plan to update your forecast for this FY before the next VB is released?

The reason I ask is because the PERM certifications for EB2 ROW has slowed down considerably and I was wondering if it will have any bearing on the COD.

Regards
Nat

---

Nat,

I wasn't planning to since I still think the ending COD will be somewhere in the range I have already mentioned. The dates in the August VB moved pretty much as I expected.

I still think the best case is around 01APR08.

The slowdown in PERM processing is pushing more cases into being FY2014 approvals. It has certainly reduced the number I originally thought EB2-WW might get approved this FY, but one way or another I think that is still reflected in the prediction range. EB2-WW appear to have sufficient cases already in the system to reach their allocation for the FY. Originally, I could see a scenario where reaching a 2008 COD might not have been possible if EB2-WW had particularly high approvals, even if it might have been unsaid.

Other unknown factors, such as EB1 approval level and porting numbers represent significant uncertainties as well. I think they might ultimately have a bigger effect if I have misjudged them (and essentially that is no more than an educated guess).

I think I will just leave the prediction unchanged.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by civilengineer

With my June 19, 2008 PD, I am feeling less confident that I will be able to file for EAD this year. One thing I am wondering about for next year is, what is the outlook on EB-5 spillover? This year, I thought it did not yield any spillover because of the Ski-resort they are building in Vermont, but is there high demand projected even next year for EB-5?
http://goo.gl/lzKkq

---

civilengineer,

CO recently said that he thought EB5 will use approx 9k visas this year.

That is despite some fairly major problems that have led to lower adjudications than expected.

The underlying demand (based on I-526 submitted and adjudication times) is such that we should not expect any spillover from EB5 in the next few years. The number of pending I-526 increased by 65% in the period April 2012 to April 2013 (the latest figure available). An I-526 takes approx a year for a decision to be taken on it.

This is my first post in this wonderful forum. I have been reading this for years now and now I have to make a very important decision based on what you experts think about priority date movement in the near future. Is it possible that my PD of May 23, 2008 (EB2 India) will be current in FY 2014? In other words, can i expect to get my GC by Aug/Sep 2014?

I have my EAD/AP and based on what you feel, I have to take a very important decision of switching jobs using AC 21. If there is a possibility that I can my GC next year, I will stick to my current job. If not, I will change to a new one.

Thanks in advance.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Spectator

civilengineer,

CO recently said that he thought EB5 will use approx 9k visas this year.

That is despite some fairly major problems that have led to lower adjudications than expected.

The underlying demand (based on I-526 submitted and adjudication times) is such that we should not expect any spillover from EB5 in the next few years. The number of pending I-526 increased by 65% in the period April 2012 to April 2013 (the latest figure available). An I-526 takes approx a year for a decision to be taken on it.

---

Hello Spec,

Could you please take a look at the questions i've asked when you get a chance please. Thanks a lot ...

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by av1130

This is my first post in this wonderful forum. I have been reading this for years now and now I have to make a very important decision based on what you experts think about priority date movement in the near future. Is it possible that my PD of May 23, 2008 (EB2 India) will be current in FY 2014? In other words, can i expect to get my GC by Aug/Sep 2014?

I have my EAD/AP and based on what you feel, I have to take a very important decision of switching jobs using AC 21. If there is a possibility that I can my GC next year, I will stick to my current job. If not, I will change to a new one.

Thanks in advance.

---

Summarizing the gurus, I think you are very likely (65%) to get your GC 12 months from now. There is a small chance (15%) that you will get it in the next 2 months, but a very real chance (20%) that it may get pushed out 2 years or more (in a scenario where EB1 & EB5 supply fill up each year, EB3 ROW to EB2 ROW porting eats up all EB2 supply, and EB3I porting takes up all normal EB2I supply).

My recommendation would be to wait until Aug 10th (better still Sep 10th), and if dates retrogress without crossing your PD, make the move immediately. AC21 is well established and as long as the new job is stable and willing to provide an employment verification letter (EVL), there is no reason not to use it.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Pedro Gonzales

Summarizing the gurus, I think you are very likely (65%) to get your GC 12 months from now. There is a small chance (15%) that you will get it in the next 2 months, but a very real chance (20%) that it may get pushed out 2 years or more (in a scenario where EB1 & EB5 supply fill up each year, EB3 ROW to EB2 ROW porting eats up all EB2 supply, and EB3I porting takes up all normal EB2I supply).

My recommendation would be to wait until Aug 10th (better still Sep 10th), and if dates retrogress without crossing your PD, make the move immediately. AC21 is well established and as long as the new job is stable and willing to provide an employment verification letter (EVL), there is no reason not to use it.

---

Completely agree with this approach. I do believe that May will definitely be current next year. I don't see why we wouldnt have 9000 SOFAD to cross May. The only reason we didn't get any FA this year was because EB2WW had a COD last year. As long as they stay current, we'll get some FA from them. EB1 is a wild card. If they stay on track, we'll get very little from there. But regardless, we'll hit cover May for sure.

PS: Pedro - looks like you might be on the cusp this year. If not this year, you and I can celebrate next year (I hope :) )

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by vizcard

Completely agree with this approach. I do believe that May will definitely be current next year. I don't see why we wouldnt have 9000 SOFAD to cross May. The only reason we didn't get any FA this year was because EB2WW had a COD last year. As long as they stay current, we'll get some FA from them. EB1 is a wild card. If they stay on track, we'll get very little from there. But regardless, we'll hit cover May for sure.

PS: Pedro - looks like you might be on the cusp this year. If not this year, you and I can celebrate next year (I hope :) )

---

Hi

My PD is Mar 7 2008 - NSC. I will be travelling out of country from Aug 8 - Aug 22. Not sure if this date would be current in Sep 2013, if any RFE will be issued between Aug 8 - 22. Most of the RFEs seem to be EVL related. If it is EVL type of RFE, I assume i can submit the response during Aug 8 - 22. Can you please advise what things i should be taking care for the Aug 8 - 22 window when i will be out of the country.

Thank you !!

Viz, I fully expect the FY to end at 4/25/2012 thereby giving my wife an opportunity to constantly remind me for another 12 months about my procrastination back in 2007.

Gurus,
As per trackitt, someone with a PD of 7/23/2008 got an RFE today from NSC.
http://www.trackitt.com/member/gcsnvle

When USCIS has so many pending 485 applications, why would they work on July 2008 case? Does this mean they are planning to move the dates to July 2008?

Moderator: Please remove the trackitt link if it is inappropriate

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Guest123

Hi

My PD is Mar 7 2008 - NSC. I will be travelling out of country from Aug 8 - Aug 22. Not sure if this date would be current in Sep 2013, if any RFE will be issued between Aug 8 - 22. Most of the RFEs seem to be EVL related. If it is EVL type of RFE, I assume i can submit the response during Aug 8 - 22. Can you please advise what things i should be taking care for the Aug 8 - 22 window when i will be out of the country.

Thank you !!

---

a) Call your lawyer to make sure that the your addresses (both yours and his address) are updated.
b) Make sure sms and email alerts are both on at the USCIS website.
b) Give your mailbox key to a friend so you can ask him to check your mail in case you get an RFE in between that period.

Other than that, I don't think you need to be worrying about anything right now.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Pedro Gonzales

Viz, I fully expect the FY to end at 4/25/2012 thereby giving my wife an opportunity to constantly remind me for another 12 months about my procrastination back in 2007.

---

I hear u brother...same here.

I am with a PD of SEP 2008.. Any chances of getting greened in in FY 2014.. its very confusing

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by MeraGC1

Gurus,
As per trackitt, someone with a PD of 7/23/2008 got an RFE today from NSC.
http://www.trackitt.com/member/gcsnvle

When USCIS has so many pending 485 applications, why would they work on July 2008 case? Does this mean they are planning to move the dates to July 2008?

Moderator: Please remove the trackitt link if it is inappropriate

---

Not sure what to make of it but I hope this is some positive indication.