natvyas
if there will not be much documentarily qualified demand till Mar/Apr 2012, why would CO move dates only 6 weeks? It appears next 2 bulletins will have atleast 6 months cutoff movement before retrogression begins in either March or April
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natvyas
if there will not be much documentarily qualified demand till Mar/Apr 2012, why would CO move dates only 6 weeks? It appears next 2 bulletins will have atleast 6 months cutoff movement before retrogression begins in either March or April
I believe the NVC notices are sent out because they wanna be prepared, if the H.R. 3012 becomes a law. Remember the notice itself expires in 1 year, but not the payment. If H.R. 3012 becomes law, they will need all this applications in their pipeline. With this in mind, I believe 3 -4 months of forward movement will be in Jan bulletin which comes in Dec. But the Feb bulletin will be forward/retrogress depending on the fate of H.R. 3012.
Also, when march 2012 comes, wouldn't the 2nd QSP happen? Should that not make the retrogress towards end of Sep 2007 rather than Aug-1 2007. Gurus, can u enlighten us a bit more about QSP :
1) Does it happen through the quarter or in the last month of the quarter?
2) How much QSP is expected every quarter this year?...Tx
Bieber and Feb262009
You have a point. The interesting thing in the Murthy News Bulletin dated 28th October is that Murthy also believes that USCIS is monitoring filings. "The DOS monitors the filings to determine whether anticipated demand matches the actual demand for visa numbers." However USCIS cannot be sure until it turns into actual demand. Owing to these 2 reasons I think we will see 2-3 months movement in next 2 months.
Cheers
Nat
QSP has not happened in the previous years. This year, it appears to be happening, I can't think of any other explanation from where visas could come for EB2IC.
So, If I assume that QSP is happening, I think 4-6k / quarter is a reasonable(probable) number.
oh for (1), it has to happen on the last month(3rd) of the quarter, but not necessary. As some one pointed out earlier, CIS might have gotten so efficient that they might as well do weekly spill-over :) (WSP??)
Quote:
Originally Posted by president99
I'm not sure how much of guess work they are allowed to do. Unless they have some credible information flowing from high up. IMO, it's more likely that CP's have a internal memo or an unofficial rule-book types document that requires them to send notices to Current PD+6 Months or Current PD+12months depending on their internal volume. Just something that I pulled out of no where, as your question made me think :)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Feb262009
I'm Qrious to know as well where Q is:)
Quote:
Originally Posted by self.coach
self-coach and Leo, I am very much around. Some of you have become so good at looking at data and all, I am not able to keep my self current with everything. So don't have much value to add over and above what others folks are talking about.
At a macro level I am quite confident that backlog through Jan-Mar 2008 will actually be cleared for EB2IC by sep 2012. Which means that after a brief lull or retrogression, the dates will start moving again. Basically as a rule of thumb I will say 1 year movement per year would be conservative movement, unless something fundamentally changes such as Kazarian memo rescended, 3012 is passed or economy jumpstarts - the chances of all of which are quite miserable as you can imagine!
So overall feel quite good about the movement so far. Don't think the point of retrogression has arrived yet. But I do think we are close to that. So max 1-2 bulletins will have good news if at all. And then the dates will settle around Mar-Apr 2008.
Guys if you would like, pls do vote for the charity to where to donate the ad revenue from November.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/poll.p...sults&pollid=8
So if by Sept they finish off March 2008, I imagine they would need a minimum of 6 months to start FY13 as they won't have the luxury of PWMB ... which would mean that they would need to move it till Oct 1, 2008 before Oct 1, 2012... that would imply more than one year movement, right? What am I missing or misinterpreting?Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Yes I think Oct 1 2008 before Oct 1 2012 is a safe bet.....unless the retrogression is bigger and/or subsequent movement is slower.Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
Sorry, I don't understand this. PWMB were also PWBA until the beginning of this FY. So, how does it matter that would be no equivalent of PWMB for FY 2013? There will be a ton of people with approved 140s that can submit 485 as soon as they are current.Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
The premise of that statement was that CO had a pretty good handle on number of PWMB. Maybe this was a wrong premise. Assuming that statement is accurate, then this year's pipeline started with PWMB+Porting+some TRUE PWBA. Next Oct we will have only Porting + PWBA i.e. Business as usual skewed a little by Porting. Net effect maybe the same in terms of numbers but the difference is uncertaintyin terms of the actual numbers.Quote:
Originally Posted by yesman
Without a clear handle on PWBA numbers (as he had with PWMB) math goes out of the window and now its a matter of gut check and how much he "feels" dates need to be moved ahead to make sure there's enough of a pipeline. Ofcourse if my premise that CO knew PWMB numbers is wrong, then what you say is true.
Regardless, the point of the post was that we would could possibly move to Oct 1, 2008 by end of this FY which also jives with the known Sept 11, 2008 NVC receipt date.
Thanks Q. It appears to be closed, I couldn't vote. I would have voted for Akshayapatra, which TK,Nishanth and other have already voted for and leading by a margin:)
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
IF PDs increase significantly in the coming VB then we should consider it as a confirmation of CO building the inventory in anticipation of HR-3012. We already have enough inventory to handle the coming SO - any more inventory is not needed for estimated spillover of 25K - but will be needed to fill HR-3012's requirements since the bill will be active retroactively. If the bill passes before this FY is through and CO has not built an EB2IC inventory of 85% of total EB2I allotment then CO will not be able to meet the provisions of the bill. Now, assuming we are getting a total of 52K EB2 visas in FY2012 (40K EB2 Quota + 10K from EB1 + 2K from EB5) then CO will need an EB2IC inventory of 0.85*52K ~ 44K.
This would mean that we have another 20K of inventory buildup left. Assuming 2.5K/month that comes to 8 months. So, IF CO is building inventory for HR-3012, then we should see PD moving to 03/15/08 + 8 Months = 11/15/08. Perhaps in 2 month steps each in next four bulletins?
PS> Please remember to call/write to/meet with your congress rep and senators to show your support for HR-3012.
Heard the perms applied by cognizant in 2008 nearly 500 got approved recently after auditing...dont know how many more like that
I don't think CO will move dates in anticipation of a upcoming bill. He is doing what he is supposed to do at this time. Just build the pipeline up to certain point with some buffer, so that he can cover the ground for this spill over season with out wasting any numbers. Since he does not have any thing in the demand pipeline it is very risky for him to sit at this level with out moving dates further. He will collect the demand in smaller chunks in each bulletin until he sees enough demand to satisfy this years demand and next years Q1 approvals.Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
imdeng
Spillover visas are distributed purely by Priority date seniority. I think 85% rule ( as per HR3012 ) applies only to 40K.
Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
Thats even better. That would mean 12K + 0.85*40K = 46K of EB2IC inventory needed to meet HR-3012 requirement for FY2012.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
From the CO's perspective it is more risky for him to not have enough pipeline to fulfill the numbers under various circumstances (bill passes or doesnt pass). He always has retrogression to use as a tool in case he ends up moving the dates too far out. So again the larger risk is not having the 4-5 months of pipeline ready for any eventuality.
Imdeng, can you elaborate the formula?
Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
Guys, we have a thread more or less dedicated to HR3012.Quote:
Originally Posted by Waiting4Ever
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth....3012-H.R.3119
I'm moving all the specific HR3012 posts that aren't numbers related there. Feel free to discuss the implications of the bill passing on the VB dates here if you wish, but move your bill specific questions to that thread.
I think he's referring toQuote:
Originally Posted by leo07
12K of FD from EB1 (since with HR3012 FA from EB2ROW would no longer be relevant)
85% of 40K being unreserved amount available to all countries per PD that will be used almost completely by I & C
imdeng, one thing you are forgetting is that depending on when HR3012 passes (if it passes), there may not be 85% still available for EB2I & C.
The USCIS would most likely have already used up more than the 15% by Dec 31 for countries other than I & C (I'm saying this on the basis of absolutely no analysis), so if HR3012 becomes law at that time EB2IC will not have the entire 85% amount. Most likely EB2ROW will become U at that stage, and all remaining visa numbers will be provided based purely on PDs (so only to EB2I & C). Every month's delay in passing the law will cost EB2IC more visa numbers.
ok. Thanks. Just wanted to be sure. Like you said, it would be some thing like 12K-x + 0.85*0.8*40k. x being qsp already applied and assuming 20% of visas are consumed by Jan 1st.
Guys, I moved several more messages on HR3012 to the advocacy thread here:
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth....3012-H.R.3119
Just wanted to wish this board a Happy Thanksgiving. Hopefully, we'll have an opportunity soon to give thanks related to our GCs
Observation.
Dec VB DD published on Nov 9th wednesday morning, although data collection date says Nov 7th monday.
Dec VB itself officially published on Nov 10th thursday morning, unofficially seen on mumbai consulate website on Nov 9th night time here, and here's the big observation: the date of publication on Dec VB says November 8th tuesday.
It can be infered that DD was very much ready on nov 7th monday and VB was very much ready in CO's mind same day and in actual hard copy on nov 8th tuesday itself. It was already decided, delay was artificial.
Hello NishanthQuote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
How is your paper work coming along. Will you be able to file on Dec 1st.
When should we expect to get EAD if we file on Dec 1st week.
Thanks. all the best
Yes, lawyer says he will overnight it on 11/30 so that it gets there on 12/1
This is the expected sequence of events told to me that lawyer expects:
- Receipts in 8-10 days after USCIS gets application
- Biometric appointment notice in 3-4 weeks after that
- EAD/AP card around 30 days after biometric appointment is done
- He says 60 days around after application receipted is good estimate for EAD/AP card
- GC he says before June 1st i.e. around 180 days after application gets in
Also my birth certificate does not have my and mother's full name, my mother's first name has "ben" attached to it, and my wife's birth certificate is registered late in 2005, but he says he will submit only simple birth certificate, and if they ask for clarification, he will submit the additional stuff I have given him (School leaving certificate, affidavits), and he feels that if we submit too much stuff in the initial stage, it unnecessarily makes USCIS think, that there is a problem and complicates matters.
Quote:
Originally Posted by dec2007
Looking at Spec's updated PERM numbers for 2011: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...y-Breakdown%29
Seems like the super high PERM numbers of 2010 are carrying through to 2011. We have EB2IC PERM density of 3K per month now. Sure, some of these are porting/duplicate/parallel filing - but even after discounting those, the situation is dire. If this situation continues and economy picks up then EB2 is well on its way to becoming EB3 unless something like HR-3012 happens.
Request for Spec: Spec - it would be helpful to see monthly PERM numbers for EB2IC in comparison to the same for EB2ROW especially in regards to fall-across spillover numbers. If its not too much trouble, please post them as well. Thanks.
It could be worrisome if those approvals all relate to year 2011 PDs.
I do not think they all relate to year 2011 PDs so the density could be less than what's implied there.
Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
I believe the row labels are indeed the PD months. So, for example, we have 2919 EB2IC PERM cases with PD in Jan 2011 approved in FY2011. This is quite worrisome.
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I just combined Spec's PERM data to see the distribution of PERM Approvals by country and by PD year. Turns out, India is not only continuously increasing its share of EB2/3 demand, the demand from India is now much more than the rest of the world combined. Shows you how ridiculous per country limits are and how deep a backlog EB2I will fall into pretty soon if HR-3012 fails (assuming most of India PERM approvals are EB2).
Chances are major number of these perm approvals are porters from Eb3 to Eb2. 2007-2009 consistently increased but the number just started shooting up in 2009-2010..possibly after all the buzz about Eb2 movement. Sans HR3012, pretty bleak picture if this continues to happen. Thanks for the data.
Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
Q, what do you exactly mean by "relate to year 2011 PDs"?
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
You can add around 200 from HP for year 2008, i am not sure on count but there are reasonable no's from BOA for year 2008.
We have determined porting to be about 3K per year - so that explains only a small part of the data.
Quote:
Originally Posted by self.coach
Is the 3K per year consistent since 2008? Do we have yearly data for Eb3-Eb2 portings since 2008? I'd say lesser in 2008/09 and jumping up since then.
Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
3K is the estimated figure for last year (FY2011). It is not expected to move much in either direction.
Quote:
Originally Posted by self.coach
Have we come full circle in terms of density? There was discussion a month back where we talked about 2000 vs 2500 vs 3000 and we settled on 2500. Obviously 3000 is not good for folks in the second half of 2008 and 2009 unless 3012 goes through.Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng