http://immigration-law.com/ also claims that Grassley is planning to lift hold on H.R.3012.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mavrick
http://immigration-law.com/ also claims that Grassley is planning to lift hold on H.R.3012.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mavrick
Yes, we are seeing these news out there. But nothing is official and request everyone's patience. There is still a ton of work to be done. And the fight will get much harder if they get serious about the bill. Please be ready to contact law makers at a later appropriate time and to ask for their vote on the bill.
To immitime,Spec,Q and others
Thank you for maintaining a very clean,informative and decent blog that is always fun visiting.I have been visiting this blog for much longer than my date of joining indicates. I strongly feel that this week will see H.R 3012 passed through both houses.The senate version will most likely pass by voice vote/unanimous consent on Monday and House concurrence later in the week before the July 4 recess. The momentum for this Bill is significant given the incorporation of its language in numerous Bills by multiple lawmakers and so if not stand-alone it would have passed as part of some other Bill. There is no need to discuss the merits and demerits of this Bill as everybody has had plenty of time to do this in a very civil fashion in this blog and a more boisterous and foul language in other forums (no names here!).
I am a US citizen of Indian origin and stand to gain nothing from this Bill. However the lack of courage on the part of our lawmakers to pass a more sweeping legislation to help improve EB immigration is shocking. We are in direct competition wit other Anglo-philic societies like Canada,Australia,New Zealand,Singapore etc and no other country is as flat-footed with its policy as the USA. The ceiling of 140,000 per year was set in 1990 when the total population was 248 million which has by now grown to 313 million. This number represents an addition of 0.03% of the total population annually. On a different note-unlike other categories-most EB visas are AOS and these individuals have already been counted in the census-some long-time waiters probably had the misfortune of being counted in 2 census 10 years apart. Furthermore as the population increases by roughly 30 million per decade this figure will become almost invisible!
The irony is that people's lives are hanging in balance due to completely arbitrary numbers at various stages in the legislative process.I would direct attention to this article if you have not already read it
http://www.ilw.com/articles/2012,0201-endelman.shtm
Towards the end of the article are details of the conference reports on how this number of 140000 was arrived at (totally arbitrary). I have always wondered that if the original language of the bill with 75000 EB visas and exemptions for dependents would have made these backlogs a lot less.My calculations based on recent statistics show that we would have ended up with about 180000 annually for a total increase of about 500000 visas in the past decade. Till the economy improves this cap is not going away anywhere anytime soon and this is sych a shame.
Compare this to immigration policies in Australia,Canada and NZ.This is a link to the migration policy statistics for 2011 in Australia
http://www.immi.gov.au/media/statist...am-2010-11.pdf
The skill stream accounts for 67% of immigration compared to roughly 13% for the USA.What is interesting is that Australia with an estimated population of 21 million admits the same number of skilled immigrants annually as the USA with a population of 313 million. The other stark comparison is the nimble policy making from these predominantly Parliamentary democracies which allows them to scale immigration up or down based on the economy and specific needs. In the USA this happens annually with refugee ceilings as ordered by the President after consulting with Congress and I have always wondered if somebody with adequate foresight cannot create something similar for EB immigration also.
What this current Bill will do for the future of immigration is unclear and too soon to predict.The obvious winners will be the heavily backlogged I/C individuals between 2003 and 2006 but once the dust settles after the run-in years I feel that these 2 countries will take up about 50% of the EB2/EB3 quotas annually. The most recent data suggest that China is the provider of most international students to the USA-a position long held by India
http://www.iie.org/en/Research-and-P...Origin/2009-11
Cumulatively these 2 countries account for about 36% of all students in the USA and these numbers will be reflected in EB immigration going forward.I also feel that this data is the most significant driver of this Bill.Most of the current backlog at this time is related to the early 2000s tech boom where the H-1B caps were raised to 195000 and once these are cleared with this Bill-there should be much smoother movement. There can also be a shift in the business practices of the off-shoring companies all of whom are increasing hires in the USA.I also feel that the EB filing patterns of individuals of all countries will start to change and there will be significant motivation to get in line early and not wait for the perfect employer as they are probably doing now.
I will not get into details about the STEM visa Bills but I strongly feel that these should not be at the expense of the DV category. This was created by the same Act of Congress as the H-1B visa and EB categories and serves a purpose of its own.The Diversity Visa is the classical pinata everybody wants to whack at every year. I agree that the visa program at this time is not giving the same results for the Europeans as it was originally envisaged but has opened up opportunities for numerous countries to send their citizens here. Sen.Schumer who was one of the main architects behind the Bill in 1990 (used to be called Schumer Visas) will fight very hard to retain the Program.The republicans will fight this program for the same reason they fight Medicare/Social Security etc-these are Democratic ideas. The premise that because only a high school diploma is needed, the USA is getting rejects from everywhere is not always true. Please read the stories below
http://thecollegianur.com/2011/11/17...la-hart/24175/
http://www.firsthealth.org/About%20F...al%20Group.asp
http://www.timesherald.com/article/2...FE01/120529997
The lack of will to even suggest an increase in EB visas to accommodate these STEM graduates is startling. The question always seems to be " Where are these 50000 visas going to come from?" For heaven's sake-Just add them on to what we have!!!
The recent DREAM announcement lead me to another thought and I was hoping other members would voice their thought. I am friends with a family who came here in 2000 with a 3 year old daughter who is soon to be 16 and are still waiting in EB3 with a PD in Oct 2004.I see in her the EB equivalent of DREAM as I am not sure what her status would be in 2 years when she turns 18 if they are not approved by them.She is also somebody who can legitimately call herself a legal DREAMER and I am sure she is not the only one.
I stopped visiting another forum regularly as I could not stand the language being used but this Bill has truly brought out the darker side in people which I hope will settle once this becomes law. Most of us EB immigrants have seen nothing in life compared to some Karen Burmese refugees for whom I volunteered to teach English in my spare time last year.The stories I heard of the atrocities were beyond description and I strongly suggest to all friends in this forum at various stages of immigration to stop worrying about this and spend some time with refugees like these in your area to truly understand the value of the American dream
I apologize that my post got too long but even after having long completed the immigration process I am still frustrated at the difficulties we encounter in creating sensible policies that will help this country in the long run. I feel that 3012 is a helpful step but not enough by any means.A prospective filer in 2012 under EB3 still faces a 11-12 year wait at a minimum and this is not an attractive alternative at all.
GS1968, thank you for your kind words.
gs1968,Quote:
Originally Posted by gs1968
A very thoughtful and considered post.
I agree the only solution is to provide more visas, otherwise due to demand, everyone is going to retrogress. Recapturing the lost visas would immediately apply a correction to the retrogressed Cut Off Dates, although I don't think the numbers are sufficient to make everybody Current.
I do like the STEM idea, because it gives greatest benefit to those Countries with the most students graduating form accredited US Universities. That happens to be China and India, who have the biggest backlogs, but then part of the reason for those backlogs is the very fact that many students come to the USA to study and then wish to make their career here.
To K and Spec
I again apologize for the length of the post.I just kept typing in the small box and did not realize the length till I previewed it!
HR 3012 has created a wedge between Indians/Chinese and the rest of the world because as things stand they stand to gain most from the change.However the Open Door data for international students seems to indicate higher Chinese demand in the future.Also the significant rupee depreciation in the last 4 months will lead to a strategic change in the off-shoring business model of Indian IT cos as they stand to gain by thinning down US presence and increasing work in India. I was reviewing the rupee vs dollar chart and the significant appreciation has happened in the last 90 days and some of the H-1B visas they have applied for may not be followed through with. A combination of these factors may alter the composition of future applications for EB visas
Thanks Gs1968.. and Thanks Q for maintaining this forum, without any spamming.
Praying that H.R.3012 will be law soon. which gives relief to lot of families.
I just saw some of the posts on trackitt, I like how these converstions devolve into a crazy catfight and people keep bitching about the other every 2 minutes. Blah.
So are folks still optimistic that we get a vote on HR 3012 this week?
Officially Grassley's hold should be off, then only we can think of Senate vote. I don't think he has removed the hold on HR3012 yet.
Quote:
Originally Posted by randomax
Gs1968- Well expressed. Thanks for the information with unbiased view.
This bill is needed now to make everybody is treated as equal.
Here are some of my thoughts on the impact of HR3012 (if at all the bill passes), primarily on EB2 and EB3 community. Of course, no one knows in advance whether the bill will pass or not and I feel there are strong arguments both in favor and against the bill.
As mentioned earlier, even if the bill passes the EB3 folks will have a wait time of 10 - 12 years after things stabilize, which is not the ideal solution. In the shorter term, based on the last pending inventory there are around 25K EB3-ROW applications that are pending with PDs up to July'07. Now, if the bill says that 15% of the visas will be reserved for ROW in the first year and lesser than 15% in the 2nd year and so on, then it will take 3+ years to clear the pending EB3-ROW applications. Also, since most of the visas will be allocated to EB3I/C, EB3-I/C will also reach a similar PD as EB3-ROW in around 3 years time. So, effectively the pending EB3-ROW applicants will need around 9+ years to get their GC as compared to their current waiting time of ~6 years; for the EB3I/C, the wait is already almost 10 years for earlier PDs (2002 - 2003) but the wait might be less (~8 - 9 years) for the later PDs (2006 - 2007). For EB2 folks, the scenario will be less extreme. There are 11K pending EB2-ROW applications with PD up to March'12 and it will take ~1 and 1/2 - 2 years to clear that backlog. So, the EB2-ROW folks will need around 2 to 2 and 1/2 years to get their green cards, which is still more than the time it takes now (~1 year). After things stabilize in 3 years time frame, the waiting time for EB2 folks will be in the range of ~3 years and for EB3, it will take around 10 - 12 years.
Maybe a summary of the impact of the bill (not going into argument of whether the bill should pass or not) from Spec, Q and others might be helpful to the readers.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/26/bu...html?src=busln
Latest article in NYT in favor of high skilled immigrants.
A big thank you to gs1968 for sharing your views on this latest update on HR3012.
Trust me, I have been keep looking for your views on this latest update on other forum ( you know where i am coming from :-)), but couldn't find any and thought you're busy or out..
I am glad that I can see you here.
I am very sad to see people using such a foul language about this topic on other forum.
I've been following this forum since last two years and I just registered here to thank gs1968, Q, KD, Spectator, Immitime, sportsfan and other for maintaining this blog a very professional, decent and informative.
I always enjoy reading you guy’s posts. keep up guys. I really hope it will soon become a law.
HR 3012 is still only in 50-50 mode of making it to senate (in my view). Looks like immigration lawyers and their advocates are the main opponents at this stage.... :(
Vishnu,
Where did you get this info?
Quote:
Originally Posted by vishnu
the 50-50 assesment is just my view... ** newsletter - remains confident but at end highlights risk for HR 3012
This is a wonderful forum. I just registered today.
Hi Vishnu,
I take it as covering all bases and trying to weed out all opposition.
Amul
Hi Amul - this is a great forum! Hope you are right! My heart tells me you are right, but my mind tells me to be cautious till we get the email from ** with the senate vote date.
Trust me. I am having sleepless nights. I am hoping and praying that this passes pretty soon.
Ron Gotcher on his forum says the bill is good for his clients but is still a 'shameful sellout'
Clear opposition from the lawyer community...i dont understand why because it only affects firm that employ > 100 people - most of these firms are the ones pushing for this bill anyway. The small consulting firms will not have any impact anyway
To Vishnu
I think they fear that their income will be decreased from EB3-EB2 porting which will only increase as the wait times keep getting more prolonged under existing laws
Ah very fair point - completely forgot about it.
But what is calling a "shameful sellout"? I thought lower EB3-EB2 porting was a given if HR 3012 passed?
Perhaps I'm missing something here but I don't understand why lawyers would not support this. Aren't the H1 caps being hit every year? Unless they think there is so much fraud that if this bill goes through, the H1 caps will not be hit, I don't understand why they are not onboard with this bill. Further, given that there is a disproportionately large pipeline of IC clients for these law firms, the ROWs can't possibly have a bigger sway over them. Guess things are never as straightforward as they seem. I also don't understand how someone can publicly be opposed to eliminating fraud. Ofcourse, such actions are invariably accompanied by unintended consequences but I think its a move in the right direction.
I am trying to find an answer but not finding it anywhere. 'IF' HR 3012 passes the senate with this amendment should it go back to house again for vote?
What would be the process? With elections looming I am concerned.
Thank you
Amul