Q- your calculation of EB2-ROW quota includes FB allocation too? In another workds are you looking for EB2-ROW to consume around 37-38 K or more?Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
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Q- your calculation of EB2-ROW quota includes FB allocation too? In another workds are you looking for EB2-ROW to consume around 37-38 K or more?Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
India Second: This cut-off date has been advanced in an effort to fully utilize the numbers available under the overall Employment Second preference annual limit. It is expected that such movement will generate a significant amount of new India demand during the coming months.
These changes for the Family F2A, and India Employment Second preference categories reflect actions which have been taken based on current applicant demand patterns. Readers should expect that some type of “corrective” action will be required at some point during FY-2014 in an effort to maintain number use within the applicable annual limits. Such action would involve the establishment and retrogression of such cut-off dates, and could occur at any time.
There is deliberate attempt to not mention anything for sept.
I think as the interfiling is going to be somewhat a significant factor, CO might be cautious.
One of the interestings things that charlie ( thats what CO prefers to be called) told fellow lawyers is that he never gives any date that is not possible as people might come back to him and ask why didnt move.
so as he mentioned feb 2008 ( i.e march 1st 2008 ), that is the minimum movement , so realistically it could be couple of months beyond that in sept
Thanks for the reply, Q. That would be really great if your statement is true that DD has porting included. It would remove a lot of uncertainty.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
This is good stuff. Good enough to temporarily pull me out if my post VB depression.
In common practice, people rush their applications to grab an earlier spot in the queue, for whatever reason it may be, please make sure it reaches only on August 1st and later .Quote:
Originally Posted by primus
If it reaches one day earlier, the application will be rejected on a later date, may be even after the retrogression.
A quick question guys, do you think that i485/EAD processing will take more time than average time for applications filed in Aug/Sep because Uscis have so much backlog as a result of big movement?
For new 485 applications ..perhaps. I dont see it impacting EAD applications. They were very quick in 2012 when thousands of applications came in a short span but then they didn't have a lot of pending backlog (pre-adjudicated cases) prior to the movement like they do now.Quote:
Originally Posted by Vkkpnm
So my chances of getting green this year further diminish as I have to file new I485 and my PD is Dec 07. :(
last yr someone got GC in 58 days, so might tooQuote:
Originally Posted by Vkkpnm
Mr. Oppenheim reminds AILA that DOS cannot ‘see’ the I-140 cases that are approved and for which
adjustment of status had been requested , though he can ‘see’ cases for which consular processing is requested."
( courtesy AILA presentation )
Reposting
A combination of preadjudicated cases and new EB3-WW cases doesn't help.Quote:
Originally Posted by Vkkpnm
I'm not sure the chances are diminished. If visas run out mid way through September, it was always unlikely it would have been approved within 45 days of Receipt anyway. Even with an early walk-in, it might take 30 days to get the biometrics done.
If your date remains current in October, you may have a chance of an approval if there is no RFE, but even 90 days would have been considered quick until fairly recently.
Either way, the EAD processing time shouldn't be impacted.
spec,
i think in DD porters arent included, what do u think?
I meant interfilers whose PD was never current and new filers
Quote:
Originally Posted by indiani
That is correct.Quote:
Originally Posted by indiani
Once they file a 485 as EB2 and are pre-adjudicated, they will show up in demand. So theoretically every application (porting or regular) for PDs after July 2007 should show up in demand data.
How about EB3 before Jul 2007 who filed 485 as EB3 and then did the porting to EB2 - Will they be filing 485 now as EB2 again and that demand is not shown in DD yet?Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
Will these applications processed quickly in these 2 months just by interfiling to the old EB3 485 which is pre-adjudicated?
Those cases are inter-filing which is an administrative exercise since the 485 has been pre-adjudicated. My sense is that they will be approved so quickly that it won't really make the demand data at month end.Quote:
Originally Posted by Guest123
Honestly, I really am not 100% clear on what gets reported in demand data when it comes to porting. Perhaps Spec, Indiani, Q or Kanmani can help here. There are 4 categories of ppl who are "upgrading".
1. Pre-July 2007 - pre-adjuidcated no RFE
2. Pre-July 2007 - with RFE
3. Post-July 2007 - who never filed 485 (EB2 or EB3)
4. Post-July 2007 - who filed 485 as EB2
1. Pre-July 2007 - pre-adjuidcated no RFE - is what is not represented in DD and is the unknown factor - will it be large enough to consume any additional spillover left and thereby by stall the EB2I date at 01/01/2008 or retrogress?Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
I have posted before what CO thinks is in DD which is more importanat than what anyone is this forum thinks. Read all my previous posts within a day and you will find itQuote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
Mr. Oppenheim reminds AILA that DOS cannot ‘see’ the I-140 cases that are approved and for which
adjustment of status had been requested , though he can ‘see’ cases for which consular processing is requested."
( courtesy AILA presentation )
Reposting 3rd time
IVCRD has no information on applicants with approved I-140
Immigrant Worker petitions (nor for that matter, applicants having approved I-130 Alien
Relative petitions) where AOS is selected, but the AOS was not filed despite a prior filing
eligibility window, or the applicant was never eligible for AOS filing, and the I-485 cannot now
be filed due to priority date backlogs." ( from AILA prsentation )
Spec,
I am presenting my view for your valuable comments.
Without the FB added to the anuual quota, China is entitled to receive only 2800 , with FB, China can receive 3163.
Purely accounting the straight forward cases from the inventory, oct'12 to July'13 covers 3k cases. Since COD has been moved past the date where it should stop at 2800 cases (normal scenario) can we assume their EB2 total as 3163? If yes that leaves only 163 visa numbers left under the FB added new quota with Zero porting accounted sofar.
Assuming (again) Zero porting numbers, with 163 visa numbers remaining , the 2 months move could consume 500 more approx, which directly targets the spillover from unused numbers.
For China to get otherwise unused numbers, EB2 India's COD must have reached 08 Aug 2008 to share the remaining if any with China.
My question is, what is the basis for CO to give a prediction of 2 months move over the remaining FY-2013? Do they have that much Visa numbers (20K) to cover? Or that was a mistake and he might take back his words?
Kanmani,Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
I can't see you accounting for the 7% portion of any Fall Down from EB1 that EB2-C appear to be entitled to. EB2 allocation is 45,188 plus Fall Down from EB1. 7% is prorated based on the allocation.
If, for instance, 10,000 visas fell down from EB1, then EB2-C share would be 10,000 * 7% = 700.
That would raise the EB2-C allocation to 2,803 + 360 + 700 = 3,863 or 55,188 * 7% if you prefer to look at it that way.
That sort of level (around 4k) was consistent with EB2-C progress to date and the forecast of up to 2 months per VB for the remainder of the year. EB2-C would have ended up in December 2008.
In this scenario, there is no need for EB2-I to share the same Cut Off Date as EB2-C, as EB2-C are still only using their 7% allocation of EB2 visas.
I thought it was this issue you were asking about in your previous post. I suspect I was wrong in that assumption.
The fact that it appears EB2-C can no longer reach that date says something has happened (and quite recently). Either other cases outside the known demand have used up the visas, Fall Down from EB1 is now thought to be less than before, or it is a combination of the two. A reduction in Fall down alone is very unlikely because the reduction would have to be very high compared to solely account for the difference.
We don't really know very much about Chinese cases. There is a perception that they have low porting, but no facts to base that on. It may also be that a large number of people were unable to file when the window was open in FY2012. Again, we don't know.
Spec, Please bare with my ignorance.
Why do we consider that Fall down from EB1 for 7 % per country limit at all? For all these years if it is 140k it is 2803 and anything else Falling down is free from per country limit is it not ?
This is what I see from DD document
Preference China* all Other Countries Worldwide Limit
E1 3,164 3,164 45,188
E2 3,163 3,163 45,188
E3/EW 2,863 3,163 45,188
E4/SR 785 785 11,218
E5 85 785 11,218
Total 10,060 11,060 158,000
Kanmani,Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
There was a whole thread devoted to the topic quite some time ago. It wasn't this year, but the subject and the thread has already been discussed in this thread this year.
In my example above, the 7% figure for other Categories would reduce based on how many they had contributed to Fall Down. Simplistically, (although it is not exactly correct) you could think of the EB1 allocation as having reduced by 10,000 and that the 7% figure for EB1 would have reduced by 700. The total 7% number within EB would be unchanged.
I'll try and find it. If I do, I will add the link to this post.
Edit:- It is here.
Thanks Q, Viz, Indiani, Kanmani.., A couple of related questionsQuote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
1. If dates get retrogressed, when would I get GC having Dec 07 PD. Just a rough estimates.
2. Most important one, If I able to file my I485 with in first week of Aug, Is there a chance that I get my EAD/AP before 10th Oct? I have to visit India during that time and want to book tickets accordingly.
Thanks in advance and appreciate your inputs on this.
1. Summer 2014 at the latestQuote:
Originally Posted by Vkkpnm
2. The official processing time is 90 days. Although most people last year got them way quicker than that. I even got my renewal in 60 days. As Jim Carrey says in "Dumb and Dumber" .. So there is a chance! :)
1. In AILA conference, there is an indication that the FY'14 COD moviement will be as similar as to FY'13. If so, the next movement will start from July of next year.Quote:
Originally Posted by Vkkpnm
2. Last year's pattern was 45-60 days in TSC. NSC was processing significantly late.
Most importantly, you cannot travel before finger printing .
VK - I think you should be prepared for a binary outcome i.e. you either get greened by end of Oct (assuming your date will stay current through at least october) OR post retrogression your date will be current again next Aug/Sep.
If you file on 1st Aug - I would give it 4 months of total processing time - although you could be lucky. It means Nov is when you could get GC. Or if the dates retrogress - then next Aug.
Sorry - it's not ideal. In fact its quite cruel. But unfortunately that's what it is.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vkkpnm
Thanks everyone for your prompt response.
Not many people would get that!!
My favorite part of the movie is when they are looking for the girl's address in directory and the other guy ask Jim Carey her name. Jim Carey says "Mary Swanson" and then he utters a second and a third and finally gives up. Another one of course is the beer one ;)Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
I've been looking at the new Labor Certification Registry Data. It doesn't include the Country of the applicant in the displayed results, although that information is contained in the pdf attachment for each record.
Therefore any analysis can not split the data by Country. I will have to wait for the official Disclosure Data for that.
It is a pain to extract all the data. I won't guarantee the total numbers are 100% (I can only guarantee 99%) :) It is not an exercise I am likely to repeat.
Nonetheless, here is what I was able to find for data in Q3 and July 1 to 10 and analysed by the PD of the application.
April
PD
2007 ----- 1
2008 ----- 1
2009 ----- 0
2010 ----- 4
2011 ---- 34
2012 - 2,446
2013 ----- 1
Total - 2,487
May
PD
2007 ----- 3
2008 ---- 17
2009 ----- 7
2010 ----- 2
2011 ---- 36
2012 - 2,164
2013 --- 335
Total - 2,564
June
PD
2007 ----- 0
2008 ----- 3
2009 ----- 0
2010 ----- 2
2011 ---- 60
2012 --- 926
2013 --- 747
Total - 1,738
July 1 - 10
PD
2007 ----- 0
2008 ----- 0
2009 ----- 0
2010 ----- 0
2011 ----- 5
2012 --- 211
2013 --- 294
Total --- 510
Total Certifications for PD 2012 are now slightly higher than for PD 2011.
All Certifications for PD 2013 to date are for January 2013 only. DOL have been painfully slow recently.
PS:- One quirk I have found with the LCR system. For a given date range search, the results will always include 1 day beyond the ending date. e.g If you want the figures for May, you need to enter a range of 05/01/2013 to 05/30/2013. If the ending date is 05/31/2013 the results will include 06/01/2013 as well.
Some changes to the EB-5 program which might affect spillover
http://www.lexisnexis.com/legalnewsr...investors.aspx
I think it said that the "Pattern" would be similar to FY'13, which tells me no movement till Aug of 2014. With the numbers dwindling across the board I dont think we will see a similar movement in FY14 but it is too early to say.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Kanmani,Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
That is not true, one can travel after filing 485 on a valid non-immigrant VISA.
But it is strongly recommended to come back for fingerprints with out trying to reschedule.
This is based on personal experience.
Thanks Veni. Any idea of the average time of receiving FP request?
Within 30 days of receipt date.Quote:
Originally Posted by Vkkpnm
Thanks VeniQuote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
I moved the discussion related to AC21 and job change before 180 days to a new thread - Link
Friends - please post your questions that are not relevant to this thread - here in this thread - ONLY after you have already posted it else where and failed to receive a response.
Please respect moderators' time and effort. It is understandable and ok to post here if you don't get response elsewhere.
Thank you.
Gurus,
Do you believe the porting rate (EB3I to EB2I) in FY 2014 will be same as in FY 2013? It seems Porters till July-2007 will be assigned visa numbers in FY 2013 itself and rest will at least be pre-adjudicated. Eb3 folks (post Jan-2008) may apply for porting (considering the fact that you need min 5 year experience before you can apply for porting) but I believe the process takes time and the total interfiling may be less for that period. The Eb3 folks, who missed the boat this time around (the ones whose applications are still in process), may still generate some demand – but it should be much less compare to FY 2013. Please advise.