Q any idea whether there will be internal retrogression before end of november ?Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
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Q any idea whether there will be internal retrogression before end of november ?Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Seattlet that's going to reach quite quickly right? It's only ~300 visas per month for EB2I. The reason there was no retrogression for Oct Nov because there is no data on which CO can make that decision. Already at end of Oct he is seeing the data and announced (informally I assume) that there will be retrogression.
However as far as this guy goes - his PD is 2006. What's the chance that there are 300 applications before him? I would put that quite minimal - even if porting is happening heavy. But as per your question - yes indeed there is going to be an "internal retrogression" ( to use your term) pretty quickly in November.Quote:
Originally Posted by seattlet
Q, I kinda disagree with you here (though, I wish you were right): I believe PD and RD don't play any role as when my case will be given and processed by adjudicating officer. Because in trackitt, there are several first time filers (on 8/1/13), who have PD much after 2006 (~2008) and their cases have been approved. So its pure LUCK.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Primus - I didn't mean to give you any hope against your hope!!!
But I can say a few things with certainty and then there are things that only somebody with an insider information can tell you - which I clearly do not have.
1. Among all the cases that are ready for a visa - the visa allocation by law - must happen by PD for a specific country within a specific category. Period. There is no doubt about the law. I would bet with quite a bit of high certainty that Visa Office tries to abide by the law. There may be one off exceptions but I wouldn't bet on that.
2. When among a specific country and category - cases with later PDs are processed than cases with prior PDs - it means only one and one thing to me - that cases with prior PDs were not ready to be assigned a visa.
As per your case - I can't predict what will happen. But for an average case like yours - I think it has a very good chance it will get approved in November.
Quote:
Originally Posted by primus
I just saw Matt's prediction update on the trackitt website.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...rive_web#gid=4
Matt,
we miss seeing your posts on this forum... Thanks for the update...
I have updated the header with general information. Throughout the year, I will update it only at a trend level. As I have said many times, I have stopped doing manual calculations. So please pardon me if there is an expectation of specific numbers. But I will keep commenting on key events and update the header.
Just an update on trackitt approvals..
Oct 2013 Approvals:
Total --> 329
First time filers --> 102
The % of first time filers has gone up. 50 out of the first 200 were first time filers. 52 out of the next 129 were first time filers.
There were 310 first time filers in Aug 2013 according to trackitt. Out of this 102 (30%) have been greened.
Question to Gurus,
When and how does the DD get updated. More specifically, I am trying to figure out the EB3 applications that are pending in the inventory.
For example:
July DD for EB3I:
July 2013
Year --EB3I------InSpecificYear
2004 --9,725-----UNKNOWN
2005 --20,975----11,250
2006 --28,550----7,575
2007 --37,775----9,225
Oct 2013 DD:
Year --EB3I-----InSpecificYear
2004 --2,900----UNKNOWN
2005 --13,600---10,700
2006 --20,550---6,950
2007 --28,975---8,475
People Ported out to EB2I just based on DD:
2005 -- 550 (4.8% ported)
2006 -- 625 (8.2% ported)
2007 -- 750 (8.13% ported)
At what stage does an application move out from EB3I to EB2I?
- After I-140 is approved ?
- After the interfiling request is filed ?
- After the visa is approved under EB2 ?
Also the trend shows that people with later PDs are more inclined to port. Hence we should be expecting higher porting for 2008 cases that have never filed I-485.
The Nov DD will look very interesting as we might see more EB3I numbers go down and EB2I go up. I would revisit the percentage at that time to try and track actual porting percentage. If we do this exercise after Nov and Dec DD then porting percentage would be clearly visible.
I expect it to be around 20% when we revisit this in Dec.
Another update:Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
Sep 2013 first time filers have also started getting approved. This shows that it is possible for first time filers to get approved within 60 days of filing the petition. Something to watch out for as CO can use this to get better idea of demand every year. If he had advanced the dates in June then he should have had an idea of porting by Aug. He might start adopting it from next year. If so, it will be a bigger concern than ever.
DD is updated every month and generally comes out a day or so before VB. Inventory is usually on a quarterly basis.
11/01/2013: Visa Bureau Reportedly Released Info that EB-2 India Would Retrogress to Either 2004 or 2005 in December Visa Bulletin
AILA has reported that in a conference in DC, Mr. Oppenheim disclosed that EB-2 for India would move backward to either 2004 or 2005 in December 2013 Visa Bulletin. Reportedly, in June 2014, EB-5 Regional Center Investor Visa Cap will reach because of the heavy demand of the investor immigrant visas by Chinese investors.
Source - http://www.immigration-law.com/
I cannot show direct evidence for your doubts, because the answers are spread out in various versions of interviews made with DoS. The following were the essence of those words. You can interpret from them.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
1. Demand Data is obtained from the pending list in the Immigrant Visa Allocation Management System (IVAMS)
2. IVAMS allows only one Visa request per Alien Number pending in the system.
3. EB3 to EB2 is converted only when the EB2 PD is current.
4. EB2 visa is allotted only after the pending EB3 request is removed from the IVAMS.
Inventory is maintained by USCIS. Opinions may differ but mine is that Eb3 porters remain as EB3 in the inventory until their visa allocation .
thanks Kanmani.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
So according to your understanding, we would not be able to see the complete extent of the EB3-EB2 interfilers until they are actually granted the visa. Basically, even the Jan demand data might not account for interfilers that have been not been approved under EB2.
Jagan,Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
You have quoted the line in which I have commented (personal opinion) on the inventory maintained by USCIS,
DD is maintained by DoS. The information I have given on DD maintenance is not from my personal opinion or assumption, but it is true .
I am relatively new when compared to Q, Spec, Veni, Teddy, who have been trying for years to find a route to guesstimate the hidden demand of the EB3 porters. They could only approximate the number every year.
Yes, we can NEITHER see the porters demand in the DD when the PD is current ( Like today) NOR see the porters demand when the dates get retrogressed ( after December 1st).
NOTE: NOT all the I-485 applicants are counted in the Demand Data.
When the Priority Date is current, provided if the Visa numbers are not exhausted, any Visa request made with IVAMS straight away goes to the approval mode and because of this setup, the respective applicant cannot be a part of DD.
I'm not sure if this has been commented upon, the DOS Visa Office is estimating 150K visas for EB in FY-2014, likely because of 10K left over visas from FB in FY-2013.
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Web_...cal_Limits.pdf
Justvisiting - you are the first to post this news. So far on the forum we have been following this - http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf which shows 148K for EB for 2014. So this news you posted improves visa availability by 2K which is a good news for backlogged countries.
My rough guess at this point is that the final number will only increase given how FB FB2-A dates have moved. Most likely there is lots of FB visa spillover from FB to EB this year too.
Quote:
Originally Posted by justvisiting
Everybody on the forum - Happy Diwali and a happy new year to you and your families !!
Happy Diwali to AllQuote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
May this new year bring wisdom and peace to all of us....
I received two CPO emails for the I485, one yesterday and another one today saying that card production ordered. First one said card production is ordered on November 2nd and today's email on the said that card production is ordered on Nov 3rd. This is on the same case. Is it normal?
RD 8/6/2013 PD 12/14/2007 TSC
I have a question reg EB2 ROW. When most of H1 B visas are taken up by Indians, How is it that EB2 ROW occupies 35 K visas every year ? or atleast around 30 K
Do ROW folks have other avenues to apply for EB2 without having a work visa ? I know mexicans and canadians have T1, but not sure if they consume 35 K
To everyone - Happy Diwali and I wish all of you a happy new year !
justvisiting - many thanks!Quote:
Originally Posted by justvisiting
seattlet - That's a valid question. Perhaps it is a combination of three things: 1) A GC can be applied for regardless your current visa status. 2) Not all H1s are given to Indians. 3) There is an H1 quota based on US degrees. So ROW folks who do a bachelors or masters or a PHD may somehow end up getting an H1 through that quota. I believe the quota is 20K per year.Quote:
Originally Posted by seattlet
I wouldn't worry about it Joseph. Congratulations!Quote:
Originally Posted by JosephM
Lot of the EB2 row candidates are either direct hires and company transfers like L1. Also many use other category of visa and just like many I&C use lawyers to file for labor and concurrently for 140/485. Within months most are free to work without any problems.Quote:
Originally Posted by seattlet
thank you qesehmk..
USCIS approved 262.5K H1B petitions in FY 2012, 137K (52%) where for initial employment. Note that 2012 was the first FY in which initial employment increased, likely reflecting the reduced number of folks having to rebew H1Bs after their GCs were approved in FY2012. Of the initial employemnt H1Bs, 39K were for countries other than India and China. If you use the standard 2.2 factor converting H1Bs to Green Cards (because you have to account for spouses and children), that would yield 86K green cards for ROW alone. This is without considering L1 visas.Quote:
Originally Posted by druvraj
http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/f...cteristics.pdf
I-485 Employment-Based Inventory Statistics updated (PDF file - updated October 1, 2013)
http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/f...er_01-2013.pdf
Wow... the PERM slowdown is evident. More EB1 than EB2s pending for 2013. Basically all those EB2 you are seeing after March 2013 are EB2-NIW. This may be the first clue we ever get at the size of NIW, and it looks to be about 300 per month of 3600 a year. (less than 10% of EB2-ROWs)Quote:
Originally Posted by swathi
This is bad. The pending inventory shows more applications pending as compared to DD. why do we have this inconsistency ?Quote:
Originally Posted by swathi
Roughly 32K applications for EB2I, when can we expect dates to move to 2010? Is spillover expected to be in 15K-16K range this year (FY 2014)?
That is a minor detail. The most important conclusion is how low the inventory is for EB3ROW. That means EB3I can move like crazy and in turn reduce pressure on EB2I.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
kd- good point.Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
Kd2008,Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
How can that be minor. Below are the pending numbers before jan 2009 according to dd and inventory
DD : 9000
I485 inventory : 13500
In what world can that be minor ?
The demand data was published as of 10/07 and the pending inventory is as of 10/01. "All eligibleQuote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
cases were then allocated Employment-based numbers on October 1, 2013, under the FY 2014 annual limits." ...statement as per demand data.
So the difference in the numbers seems to be cases allocated visa numbers between 10/01 and 10/06.
The increase from 9000 to ~13500 is definitely not minor.
As of 10/07, 9000 cases in DD = Cases that have been pre-adjudicated
As of 10/01, 13500 cases in inventory = Includes both pre-adjudicated cases as well as new cases that are still being processed.
This difference of 4500 could be
1. New EB2I Applicants who missed the boat last time
2. Applicants who ported from EB3 (first time 485 filers)
3. Not sure if EB3 with exisiting 485 who sends interfile letter would be counted.
I am sure that I have not covered all the categories. Could we get some sense of porting numbers from this difference?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
Are you trying to say that 4500 visas were allocated between Oct 01 and Oct 07 and then gradually the approvals kept coming for the month of Oct. That might be the case.Quote:
Originally Posted by bikenlalan
Assuming that is the case, we already know that 4500 visas from FY 2014 have been consumed. That would be a major bad news.
People were projecting 16k for EB2I for FY2014. With 4.5k gone, we are left with 11.5k.
Even from DD we know that 9k left before Jan 2009. Add the porting to it... Since CO mentioned 800 ported in Oct and (assuming another 700 potential in Nov).... So 1.5k for porting...
Demand = 9k + 1.5k = 10.5k pre Jan 2009.
Supply = 11.5k
With those numbers Dec 2008 looks reachable but not much hope for post Jan 2009...
A good portion of H1Bs return home and don't get in the GC queue. Anecdotal evidence - I know of several South Korean and Chinese folks who decided to return after a few years of working. Look at what is happening to EB2C and EB3C - the density is very sparse.
Quote:
Originally Posted by justvisiting
I agree. No idea what is happening with EB3. DoS opened the floodgate after so many years and waiting and nobody seems to be biting. It seems to be long way out - but we might reach a situation when EB3 is C for everyone except EB3I and then EB3I will get the same kind of horizontal spillover that EB2I has been getting. EB2I is getting thinned by porting to EB2I anyway - so even a relatively low number will go a long way in moving EB3I.
This might also have some positive impact on EB2 by stopping EB3ROW upgrades and directing some traffice from EB2ROW to EB3ROW.
Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
Thanks for posting this...Quote:
Originally Posted by justvisiting
Happy Diwali to everyone!!
We were afraid that we will drop into the december retrogression blackhole, but we got our cards on Saturday (Nov 2nd).
PD: Feb 6, 2008
RD: Jan 25, 2012
Approval Date: Oct 25, 2013
Case: EB2I-NSC
Opened SRs, Ombudsman case, case with Senator's office - Senator's office probably helped the most.
Thanks for the great work on this forum!! Best wishes to everyone.