NVC receipts are for those who opt Consular processing for GC as opposed to AOS. Consular posts usually send out fee receipt notices much in advance.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Waiting4Ever
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NVC receipts are for those who opt Consular processing for GC as opposed to AOS. Consular posts usually send out fee receipt notices much in advance.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Waiting4Ever
Guys, please ask all non-urgent questions in appropriate forums/threads so that our moderators have less work in cleaning up this thread. I understand that this thread has more visibility and you have a reason to post on this thread. Including this message of mine :)
Hi Adi,Quote:
Originally Posted by kingjeremy
First of all, a US visa is nothing but a permission to enter the US. It's needed only at the POE. Usually, the officers at POE check your latest valid I-797 original/copy before providing the I-94. So as long as you've a valid visa stamped on your passport, you don't need to worry. It doesn't matter even if that visa is for a different company. What matters is which I-797 you provide them at the POE. So in your case, show them the latest valid I-797 (ie, 2014) at POE and they should give you an I-94 valid till 2014. The only issue you may have in the future is that you may need to get another stamping done if you leave US after your current visa (ie, 2012) expires. As long as you stay with in the country you don't need to apply for the extension of status until 2014.
If I were you, I would try to get it corrected before I leave India. You may give it a try. Let us know...
Note: I'm not a lawyer and this is not a legal advice.
Quote:
Originally Posted by leo07
Thanks Leo for your reply
Good evening all, this is my first post, i am fan of Q's Blog. so registered today. i got few questions.
1.I dont recall i read 2009 (EB3 and Eb2)total perms are 33% of 2008, is that true?
2.2nd half of 2008 market was bad,what was total EB2 count after march 15,2008.
3.my PD is 03/16/2010... applied for 8th year ext last month.client was not willing to provide client letter. EVC model, submitted Office Badge/approved Timesheets/letter from Vendor/PO between my employer and Vendor. fingers crossed, waiting for H1 renew. last year also i got 1 year ext/ based on 140 approval with client letter 11 months / renewalble contract.
Thanks
GKJP3
Hi gkjppp,
Welcome aboard.
(1) I'm not sure if 2009 is 0.33 of 2008, but it's certainly down( significantly). It's probably 0.33 of 2007/6 may be.
Here is a link where you can see(play with) the numbers: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...d-Calculations
(2) Calculating, just EB2 numbers is tricky. So people tend to take all perm numbers and multiply it with 0.70 to get EB2.
(3) shouldn't you be receiving a 3 year extension of H1B based on your 140 approval? ( dumb me don't know about consulting )
Best!
Thanks for the update Leo07
So another 2 weeks till the madness starts again :). Hopefully dates move to May 15
Not to quiz you, but why would you think(hope?) dates will move to May 15th 2008?
Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
No worries. If you look at the link: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...d-Calculations
spec provided some excellent analysis and examples to calculate what you need.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gkjppp
My thoughts on future density:
1. 2008 is as dense as 2007. About 2500 per month. There may be more demand destruction in 2008 - no evidence as yet.
2. No evidence that latter half of 2008 is significantly less dense than first half of 2008 - just about 20% less dense based on PERM data
3. 2009 is about 60% of the density of 2007 and 2008. Around 1500 per month.
These numbers will evolve of course as get more data.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gkjppp
Hi everyone,
This is my first post - I just joined today. I've been following this blog since about a month and I'm a fan. So much so that I don't visit any of the other websites/blogs. You guys have been doing a fantastic job of bringing clarity to the whole GC process - thank you!
A little bit about me- my husband's PD is early Jan 2009 EB2I. I got interested in the whole GC process after I got a job offer which eventually got rescinded since I had reached my own H1B max out date (well, I have less than a year left which isn't enough time to start my own GC process apparently).
Feel free to delete this post since it isn't related to calculations. I just wanted to introduce myself :)
No logic to the date :) I just want to see forward movement.Quote:
Originally Posted by leo07
While later half of 2008 is not as thin as popular notion but then 20% less is also sizable reduction I would think.Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
You can start your GC process now also, however before your 6th yr runs out, you will have to get PERM as well as I140 approved, if both are approved then u can have your H1-extended for 3 yrs. It will be a gamble though. A good immigration attorney should be able to handle your case. GL.Quote:
Originally Posted by Momster
Friends,
My pd is May 08 and I am planning to file a new labor and I140 retaining old pd. Can you please tell me what happens if lets say my new I140 gets approved in 2013 (random year) and current priority date has moved to 2010 by 2013 . Would I still be able to capture my old pd of 08 when I file for 485 in 2013 even though current pd by then has moved well ahead to 2010 with all 2008 cases greened.
Yes you can as long as your old PD hasn't been rescinded. You can find out if it has on the USCIs status check page with your receipt number.Quote:
Originally Posted by dce.deepak
I have already posted this message in the related forum "Discussion of bill that remove the Per Country Limits HR 2161, HR 3012, HR 3119". But I just wanted to share it on the prediction-calculation forum since this forum has the maximum traffic. Just wanted to draw attention of those who have not voted yet for HR 3012 and S 1857 or are not aware about them. I will remove the post soon.
Two more co-sponsors for HR 3012.
Rep. Jesse Jackson (D-IL)
Rep. Glenn Thompson (R-PA)
There are total 8 co-sponsors now for this bill.
Also, found this message on ** regarding HR 3012. Looks like they are really utilizing the backdoor channels.
At this time there is just one public action item mentioned on the first post of this thread. Pls make sure you are part of it.
Lot of work is going on that cannot be made public for obvious reasons. We all want the bill to pass ASAP.
Get more friends involved. Spread the word for more participation in the absence of new action items.
Voting is good - but the best way to help the bill is to write to your senators and house representative. I wrote hand written letters to them and received replies too - vague replies - but still that tells them that there is support among people who will one day have the ability to donate to them and the ability to vote for them. Please write letters in support of HR-3012 and S-1857. Do your bit.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jonty Rhodes
I am in agreement with you. In fact, I also wrote and sent the letters and similarly got vague replies. But not everyone can or will write letters and that is the only reason I asked people to vote for it and make their voice heard in whatever little way they can. Sure, writing letters is the best thing and I sincerely wish if more support can pour in for these bills in coming days.Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
Hi Friends,
any one has any idea about EB2 06 June 2008? do you think Jan 2012 bulletin ?
You should be current in Jan 2012 or Feb 2012 bulletin probably. This is my educated estimate.Quote:
Originally Posted by ashokapex
Thanks, GlimmerOfHope. I am looking at all my options.
Found these interesting.
http://www.blueseed.co/
http://blogs.ilw.com/gregsiskind/201...ling-away.html
Also, found this news on Oh Law Firm Website.
11/18/2011: DOL Inspector General Reports Foreign Labor Certification Frauds and Need for Enhanced "Integrity" in Foreign Labor Certification Processing
This report which was issued only three days back emphasized tightening of "integrity" in foreign labor certification management. The Office of Foreign Labor Certification has already increased number of audits and supervised recruitment for PERM processing, and this report of its Inspector General is likely to further affect the labor certification adjudication process negatively in the future. Employers, beware!
Looks like, there will be more audits and even bigger backlog for PERM processing.
Thank you all for your replies. I did not have access to my computer the last day or so and wasn't able to reply.Quote:
Originally Posted by mesan123
Mesan - yes, I gave a copy of my old 797 and my original new 797 to the person who checks the documents (and puts in a folder). She asked me why I was reapplying for my visa as I already had one (am I nuts to do that?). I told her that I am applying for an extension based on my new 797. She nodded her head and gave me back the documents in a packet. I realized that I made a mistake by giving a copy of my old 797 and prior to the interview with the Visa Officer, I removed the copy of my old 797 to avoid any confusion. Interview went smooth - the cute visa officer was friendly and chatty....asked me basic questions but did not ask me for a copy of my old 797.....but looks like the person in charge of printing stickers screwed up and gave me a second visa based on the old 797. Not sure who does what and who must have made this mistake.
Agreed....I want to get this resolved rather than travelling on my old visa.....won't have to deal with this nonsense till 2014 (hopefully I'll get my green card by then!)Quote:
Originally Posted by Tomtuat
On another note, I am a big fan of this forum....you guys are super cool and super helpful. I appreciate all your responses. I won't clog this forum with any more non-gc posts except for posting the resolution (once and hopefully if resolved) so that others may benefit. VFS is so little helpful in providing info and there's nothing except a generic statement on the embassy website (in case of errors, please visit your vfs center or the consulate).
Cheers, Adi
Veni,
The USCIS dashboard is updated for September, 11. As I was expecting, there is a steep decrease in the pending I-140 numbers! I am very much interested in reading your latest analysis now.
Quote:
Originally Posted by vedu
The USCIS dashboard (http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm...91&charttype=1) trend is good in terms of increased efficiency but quite bad for SOFAD. The backlog has come down from 25K to 17K which means a reduction of 8K. Another interesting point to note is that Sep 2012 saw an almost unprecedented number of completions 12K compared to just 5K in Sep 2010, this was a time when the VB did not advance for EB2 I/C in 2011.Quote:
Originally Posted by vedu
All in all if the backlog reduction for I140 happens at this kind of pace we will not see 30K SOFAD this year by any chance. This will now significantly slow down actual EB2 I/C approvals that are Spillover dependent because they may have enough Eb2 I/C cases. An interesting thing could be how much of the impact of this was absorbed in FY 2011 itself because quite literally some of the concurrently filed cases for EB2 I/C cases would have been approved immediately after the I140 would have been approved. Assuming that 50% of the impact will be felt in 2012 SOFAD may come down by atleast 5K assuming the correction in backlog by ~ 12K in the preceding 3 months (I140 normally takes 3 months to hit I485).
By this CO may have enough people by the Mar 15th 2008 date assuming the SOFAD expected is 25K and not 30K. The dates can move forward in the next VB only if the target for SOFAD is 30K, so I would scale down my expectations to maximum of 1.5-2 months in the best case scenario, there may also be a chance that in the next bulletin they may now scale the dates back for actual approvals assuming the intake is sufficient in the worst case scenario.
Teddy and other gurus,
Based on approvals we are seeing in fy 2012, can we say with certainity that this year quarterly spillover is being implemented this year. If so, what is the date we can expect for EB2IC when retrogression take place.
Teddy,
I tend to respectfully disagree with your analysis. There are two reasons for this. First, I believe that many of these cleared I-140s are already absorbed in 2011. Second, if you compare new I-140 receipts for the last few months against the same months in year 2010, you will notice that the numbers have significantly reduced. This will compensate for any increased efficiency of USCIS in clearing ROW I-140s.
All and all, I believe that this year's SOFAD will be at least same as last year's SOFAD, if not more!
Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Now we are in business.
Ok, So national trend of 140 backlog is now nearing the 15k which we all agreed earlier USCIS might be comfortable with. It is currently at 17.5k.
- Texas Service Center is still the guy doing the cleaning act, while Nebraska is doing great. No wonder in the 485 processing also, for everyone, not just EB2IC, TSC is the one that is slower.
- Now this sharp downward trend is shown for Aug and Sep 2011, wherein the PD date movement of EB2IC was stopped, and the 18k visas left which CO had informed, was completely absorbed by all other categories (EB1, EB2ROW, EB3, EB4, EB5) and EB2IC was stopped. To counter this, I don't think USCIS is really doing concurrent 485 pre-adjudication alongwith 140 for concurrently filed applications. They are supposed to do this ideally, but they don't have manpower or will on it, and hence I am seeing that a approved 140 does not necessarily mean in few days 485 approval. So some effect of this will trickle down starting right now. On trackitt, EB1 especially is whining about their 485s being stopped artificially while EB2IC getting date movement and approvals. BUT now I also see they are beginning to start getting approvals, this is the trickle effect I am talking about.
- I do think that new incoming applications for this year will be lower though as compared to last year and previous years, and that will balance out some of the monster of this backlog.
- As posted on first page by me, SOFAD expected around 25k already. Now, even this 25k can be equivalent to 30k SOFAD in function of good feeling, here's why: Post July 2007 are people who were bare naked, no EAD, hence the concept of demand destruction, and also now that we agree that porting is worst case 2.5 to 3k expected, not the huge 6k. Coupled with above expectation of less incoming applications for immigration benefits.
- Note that the above backlog reduction figures are for last FY, this is not any reaction of USCIS to the new 2012 FY agressive moves by CO, so we should not think that since CO started moving dates aggressively, USCIS is hell bent on stopping that, just based on this, not yet. Positive thing is that inspite of such trend by USCIS, CO has eagerly done QSP and moved dates not as one single BTM in panic mode, but with QSP, given approvals and moved dates in 3-4 month batches patiently.
what do you guys think.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Quote:
Originally Posted by vedu
Got it. Thanks!
Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
vedu,Quote:
Originally Posted by vedu
Hopefully we will have Q4 PERM data published later this month to get a better picture for FY 2011.
Based on Dashboard data, below my observations ….
i-140:
USCIS was able to process more 140’s in sept’11 compared to any other month in FY2011. This could partly due to the fact that EB VISA numbers are not available for later-half of Sept’11.
Aug-Sept’11 processing volumes confirm backlog reduction (to some extent) for EB1 & EB2ROWMP at the end of FY.
FY2010 i-140 receipts = 77,280
FY2010 i-140 completions = 73,746
i-140 backlog at the beginning of FY 2011 = 25,563
FY2011 i-140 receipts = 81,678 (6% increase)
FY2011 i-140 completions = 91,418 (24% Increase)
i-140 backlog at the beginning of FY 2012 = 23,185 (9.3% decrease)
FY 2011 received ~4.4k more i-140 compared to FY 2010, same time USCIS processed ~17.7k more i-140 in FY2011 compared to FY2010 resulting in backlog reduction of ~13.3k ( incl EB1-2-3)
If we compare net-i140 pending at the beginning of FY’11 to end of FY’11 it’s reduced by ~2.4K only!
EB5:
FY2010 i-526 receipts = 1,955
FY2010 i-526 completions = 1,534 (21.5% less)
i-526 backlog at the beginning of FY 2011 = 1,125
FY2011 i-526 receipts = 3,805 (~100% increase)
FY2011 i-526 completions = 1,943 (~27% Increase)
i-526 backlog at the beginning of FY 2012 = 3,347 (~200% increase)
What this could mean for FY 2012 start compared to FY 2011?
I-140 backlog more or less same
EB1 backlog = almost doubled
EB2ROWMP backlog = more or less same
EB5 backlog = ??
If we assume similar to last year demand and processing for 140/485, means less SOFAD for FY2012 how much less?
Considering EB1 and EB5 backlog at this point I would say ~10k less compared to FY2011.
Veni, thanks for the analysis. One thing to note is that the "all other pending" category reduced by 6.4K but the "awaiting customer action" increased by 4K during FY'11 (hence a net reduction of only 2.4K as you noted). Is this second category for RFEs ?
Sep-2011 shows the biggest jump in this category over last two years.
Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
GhostWriter,Quote:
Originally Posted by GhostWriter
That's my understanding, unless someone tell me otherwise.
Thanks Veni.
Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Does this mean we might not see any further movement in the priority date at all? or it will be slower than expected? or no impact at all?
@rdsingh79 - Quarterly spillover is definitely happening.
@vedu - I respect your point, in all cases the receipts are still in the same range probably .7 to 1.2. Veni points to an overall 6% increase over the year. In early Sep the numbers were exhausted and there were 7K extra completions in Sep 2011. If 20% of them are Eb2 ROW and EB1 this itself will account for 3K. So probably a 5K reduction in SOFAD maybe reasonable since a lot of it also happened in the 2 preceding months. On another note keeping it around 15K is also not a standard they can bring it down right to 0 if they like that maybe too drastic to think however.
@nishant2200 - Agree with the 25K figure. Now with 8.5K burnt out we have 16.5K left. This may put the final end point of the year somewhere in Jan 2008, its good for CO in a way that then another round of intakes can be justified. I believe the forward movement if at all in the next bulletin will be less than 2 months.
@veni thanks, especially for the I526 and EB5 with aggressive marketing we probably cannot take EB5 SOFAD for granted to remain at the same levels.
@ghostwriter yes they seem to be RFE’s and since the timeline is a month we might see high completions in Oct 2011 as well.
@Dondron – The chances of any forward movement beyond 2 months are significant very less now. In fact next month might see no movement or retrogression if intake has been deemed completed.
Oh man that sucks! Sorry for ranting..
If we are saying there will be 25000 SOFAD this FY and avg. density of 2500/month then visa issuance shd happen for 15 Apr 2007 + 10 months = feb 15 2008. Why are we still stuck in ' somewhere in Jan 2008' for our prediction?Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu