EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

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05-10-2011, 12:12 PM
TeluguBidda

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

Friends,

Our sources tell us that there will be "Significant" movemement in the bulletin and that it will come out today or latest by tomorrow.

Stay tuned ... my take is that it will be at least 6 months movement. Could be upto a year.

Q, thank you for sharing the news. I dont doubt your updates one bit (similarly updates from Spec, Teddy and others), but I cannot stop myself asking you if the source is reliable. I am sure, many of us, like I, are very tired of getting hopes up and then the visa bulletin pours super cold water on our optimism / hope.

EDITED: Please disregard my post, obviously I should have read all of your posts. Sorry.
05-10-2011, 12:15 PM
gcwait2007

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

Friends,

Our sources tell us that there will be "Significant" movemement in the bulletin and that it will come out today or latest by tomorrow.

Stay tuned ... my take is that it will be at least 6 months movement. Could be upto a year.

Good news! I hope God is listening to my prayers. Anxiously waiting...
05-10-2011, 12:28 PM
TeluguBidda

Quote:

Originally Posted by TeluguBidda

Q, thank you for sharing the news. I dont doubt your updates one bit (similarly updates from Spec, Teddy and others), but I cannot stop myself asking you if the source is reliable. I am sure, many of us, like I, are very tired of getting hopes up and then the visa bulletin pours super cold water on our optimism / hope.

EDITED: Please disregard my post, obviously I should have read all of your posts. Sorry.

One other thing to note, may be, CO's perspective of "substantial movement" meant about 2 months movement. Whenever we heard of CO's "substantial movement" in the past, it used to be around 2 months or so, wasn't it? So, may be, the CO is saying now that instead of "1 or more weeks" in the June bulletin, it would be "several weeks" (upto 8 weeks).
05-10-2011, 12:28 PM
srinivasj

Q,
Does CO means Mr. Charles Oppenheim..?
05-10-2011, 12:29 PM
TeddyKoochu

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

Friends,

Our sources tell us that there will be "Significant" movemement in the bulletin and that it will come out today or latest by tomorrow.

Stay tuned ... my take is that it will be at least 6 months movement. Could be upto a year.

Q thanks for posting, just praying and hoping for the best. Any movement is welcome.
05-10-2011, 12:30 PM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

Friends,

Our sources tell us that there will be "Significant" movemement in the bulletin and that it will come out today or latest by tomorrow.

Stay tuned ... my take is that it will be at least 6 months movement. Could be upto a year.

Q,

I very much hope you are proved correct.

It would make a great deal of sense to move it now, rather than waiting to July.

If someone sticks a hot poker up the USCIS Service Center IO's ****'s, then any new Demand generated that has not already been pre-adjudicated might be approved within the FY - just.

To be really effective, this strategy would need to move the dates a year.

Still, we've learnt that the term "significant" means different things to different people. The VB said "India: One or more weeks, possibly followed by additional movement if demand remains stable.", so to CO, even 2 months may well qualify as "significant".

I want to believe (sounds like a quote from the X Files).
05-10-2011, 12:32 PM
srini1976

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

Friends,

Our sources tell us that there will be "Significant" movemement in the bulletin and that it will come out today or latest by tomorrow.

Stay tuned ... my take is that it will be at least 6 months movement. Could be upto a year.

Q,

Hopefully this comes true!!! Awesome News!!!

Till Sep 2011 - Looks like its Waka Waka this time for EB2(I). Looking forward to the official confirmation (June 2011 VB release)!!! Game starts now !!!
05-10-2011, 12:46 PM
medatom

Have been a long time reader of this forum though never registered ( My bookmark says page 32!!). Very informative and logical discussions. Keep up the good work.
As for my question, hope they make the EB2I current for few months as my PD is Nov 09!!( I know that's very....)
05-10-2011, 12:59 PM
anuran

Quote:

Originally Posted by medatom

As for my question, hope they make the EB2I current for few months as my PD is Nov 09!!( I know that's very....)

Oooo, I would like that. Mine is Nov 10. :o

On the less lighter side, It does make sense to move the dates by a year now rather than very late. Assuming that they are moving the dates by 6-12 months, it shows that they are now confident of the numbers that they will get and can process. Confidence on the USCIS'/DoS' part is good for us. They may even be believing that hence forth they can move at a steady pace for a long time. I have a distinct feeling that they might have way more spillover numbers than they themselves anticipated.
05-10-2011, 01:02 PM
qesehmk

Quote:

Originally Posted by srinivasj

Q,
Does CO means Mr. Charles Oppenheim..?

Yes.

Quote:

Originally Posted by TeluguBidda

One other thing to note, may be, CO's perspective of "substantial movement" meant about 2 months movement.

I agree. Lets see what happens.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

If someone sticks a hot poker up the USCIS Service Center IO's ****'s, then any new Demand generated that has not already been pre-adjudicated this year - just.
LoL ... of all people spec I didnt expect this from you!

To be really effective, this strategy would need to move the dates a year.
I agree.

Some of us are expecting it to be current... that may seem far fetched. Don't let your imagination run that wild. It just hurts when things don't turn out that good. However I do think that USCIS needs to make it current in the near future and take all applications to replenish their pipeline of 485s.
05-10-2011, 01:07 PM
gaurav811

What is the incentive to move the dates by a year given that

1) They already have tons of people waiting with I-485 filed but without a GC ?
2) They already have a healthy and known number of EB2 applicants with PD`s before Jan/Feb 2007.
3) They said the EB3->EB2 is extremely high in the May bulletin.

In that case I don't think they will risk moving the PD by a lot in June. My guess is they will do it gradually from June till August and then have a big jump in September. And gradually might mean 2-4 months but not years.

Again this is all guess work. Who really knows what they will do ?
05-10-2011, 01:18 PM
anuran

Quote:

Originally Posted by gaurav811

1) They already have tons of people waiting with I-485 filed but without a GC ?
All of the applications till July 07 are preadjudicated and can be approved in a couple of months.
2) They already have a healthy and known number of EB2 applicants with PD`s before Jan/Feb 2007.
Outside of the 15000 already with them till Dec'06, they might have to deal with about 12000, at least as per TK's numbers in post #1578.
3) They said the EB3->EB2 is extremely high in the May bulletin.
Not that high as it seems - 3000-6000 might be a good guess.
Again this is all guess work. Who really knows what they will do ?
I absolutely agree with this.

I entered text in blue.
05-10-2011, 01:23 PM
skpanda

Demand data out;..

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

Cumulative
Demand Prior To China India All Other Countries Grand Total
January 1, 2006 0 0 0 0
January 1, 2007 3,675 10,425 0 14,100
January 1, 2008 9,200 20,225 0 29,425
January 1, 2011 9,250 20,350 125 29,725
05-10-2011, 01:25 PM
leo07

gaurav:My take on your questions...

(1) Under EB2 there are not tons yet.( actually, at the moment, they have less number of 485s in kitty than available visas for the rest of the year.)
(2) Same explanation as above applies here'
(3) Common adjectives used for porting are High, Extremely high, unbelievable high etc...
These are "relative" in perception. For CO, 6k or 7k of porting could be extremely high, since it covers 2-4 years of EB2I. For us(poor us), 6k to 7k( even 9k) is not much( at least we prepped ourselves that way)

The point I want to drive is, depending upon where you sit in the auditorium the view of hot heroine differs here:)
05-10-2011, 01:33 PM
hsinghjkaur

Demand Data looks great :)

As per our calculations, hence our predictions might be closer to the actual... let's see.
05-10-2011, 01:38 PM
Spectator

My take on why it could happen and maybe needs to. I could equally argue why not to do it.

Comments inline.

Quote:

Originally Posted by gaurav811

What is the incentive to move the dates by a year given that

1) They already have tons of people waiting with I-485 filed but without a GC ?

But is it a ton? There was 34k demand for EB2-IC in October 2010 and 33k in May 2011.
At the highest predictions for SOFAD, they get perilously close to exhausting that number, especially if porting is not as high as some people think.
If that happened later in the year, there would be no time to generate cases that could be adjudicated this FY.
In that case, with no demand from EB2, remaining spare visas could be consumed by EB3.

2) They already have a healthy and known number of EB2 applicants with PD`s before Jan/Feb 2007.
That represents 21k ish for EB2-IC, which probably wouldn't be enough, even with porting numbers added.

3) They said the EB3->EB2 is extremely high in the May bulletin.
True, but what is the definition of high?

In that case I don't think they will risk moving the PD by a lot in June. My guess is they will do it gradually from June till August and then have a big jump in September. And gradually might mean 2-4 months but not years.
The advantage of moving the dates significantly now is that a future demand stream can be generated that is more than necessary to cover any eventuality in this FY.
If the demand becomes too high, the Cut Off Dates can be retrogressed to control it later in the year. In the meantime, those applications submitted in time can progress to pre-adjudication, ready for when the Cut Off Dates can move forward again.

Again this is all guess work. Who really knows what they will do ?
Never a truer word spoken!!
05-10-2011, 01:39 PM
gcwait2007

Quote:

Originally Posted by skpanda

Demand data out;..

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

Cumulative
Demand Prior To China India All Other Countries Grand Total
January 1, 2006 0 0 0 0
January 1, 2007 3,675 10,425 0 14,100
January 1, 2008 9,200 20,225 0 29,425
January 1, 2011 9,250 20,350 125 29,725

My earlier thread :)

Quote:

Originally Posted by gcwait2007

I feel that the following would be the demand data for June 2011:

Prior to China India Others GT
January 1, 2006 0 0 0 0
January 1, 2007 3,700 10,500 0 14,200
January 1, 2008 9,000 20,300 0 29,300
January 1, 2011 9,100 20,400 100 29,600

In the month of May 2011, 3000 EB2 India and China GCs were issued.

As per estimate, PWMB prior to Jan 1, 2007 is almost zero. The number will not exceed 100 according to some sample data. EB3 to EB2 India upgrade is estimated to be about 20%, for the year 2006. Total number of EB3 pending cases for 2006 is 10,726 and 30% works out to 3300.

To complete 2006 and cross into 2007, SOFAD required = 14200+100+3300 = 17600.

I hope with SOFAD estimated, EB2 India and China would reach March 2007.
05-10-2011, 01:40 PM
TeddyKoochu

Quote:

Originally Posted by skpanda

Demand data out;..

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

Cumulative
Demand Prior To China India All Other Countries Grand Total
January 1, 2006 0 0 0 0
January 1, 2007 3,675 10,425 0 14,100
January 1, 2008 9,200 20,225 0 29,425
January 1, 2011 9,250 20,350 125 29,725

I believe that the grand total came down by ~ 4K from the demand data last month so this would imply that 4K cases became current in May and would get approved.
05-10-2011, 01:43 PM
srinivasj

EB2 I reduced from 13300 to 10425..
05-10-2011, 01:50 PM
gcwait2007

Quote:

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

I believe that the grand total came down by ~ 4K from the demand data last month so this would imply that 4K cases became current in May and would get approved.

3K is the correct figure
05-10-2011, 01:50 PM
TeluguBidda

Quote:

Originally Posted by gcwait2007

My earlier thread :)

Great ! Your calculations have been remarkably accurate and may be you can comment on the EB2I cut-off date?

I am guessing that DOS cannot just move to 01SEP06 as that would cause only 1 month movement for EB-2C. They would probably move both move EB-2IC to 01OCT2006, to ensure enough completions in June?
05-10-2011, 01:51 PM
anuran

Quote:

Originally Posted by skpanda

Demand data out;..

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

Almost 3000 down for India alone. That is very reasonable. They will probably process >30k by the end of this FY. And with the anticipated large scale movement, they will carry a load of 20-30k into the next FY. Perhaps that is their goal. Now I want to see the new inventory.
05-10-2011, 01:53 PM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by gcwait2007

3K is the correct figure

Add on porting at, say, 0.5k to give a total of 3.5k EB2-I visas assumed to be consumed in May.
05-10-2011, 01:54 PM
veni001

gcwait2007,
You demand data prediction was very very close.
05-10-2011, 01:54 PM
srinivasj

Based on the deduction of 3K figures..can any one estimate the porting factor..?

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