EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

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Originally Posted by vishnu

Too pessimistic in my opinion

The inventory now includes all porting up to July 2009 (sure a few may be missing but not consequential)

This was as of Jan 12 so demand where dates were moved to feb 08. Either way only
Some demand would have cleared at that point, so net increase of 1500 doesn't amount o much porting.

So we wait for spillover and just 6k takes us to June 2009.

This inventory itself doesn't provide insight on spillover - for that we rely on recent co comments that there will be some from eb1 and eb2 row.

If we close year in summer 2009, next year will be more significantly from the trends yteleven pointed out - downgrades etc. I see deep 2010 by end of next year.

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The main variable is larger proportion of EB2/EB3 in ROW domain - this is what is likely to throttle the movement of EB2I this year.

What I don't understand is EB3 ROW is practically current still what drives this larger ratio of EB2/EB3 in ROW.

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Originally Posted by YTeleven

Here is my take on this: https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...01-12-2016.pdf

Earlier I thought FY09 EB2-I PDs will get their GCs in FY16 i.e. this year.
Now I'm thinking this may not be possible completely (not sure what happens to their Medical RFEs) and they have to wait for another year i.e. till FY17, that makes them to wait for +8 years from their PDs to realize their GC dreams.
We are not even talking about FY10 or FY11 PDs (may be their wait times will result in +9yrs or +10yrs from their PDs).
God only knows the fate of FY12 and beyond PDs (I don't want to think of anything beyond 4 years from now).

why are FY09 EB2-I PDs stuck like this?
1) ZERO spillover from EB1 and this will be continued for couple of more years in future until we see another recession.
2) Upward porting from EB3-I to EB2-I. I clearly see that there is 1500 increase in inventory between Oct15 and Jan16.
This is the reason why the USCIS is NOT honoring the filing dates proposed by DOS in the VBs from NOV'15 onwards instead it is using the final action dates. This will continue until the EB3-I catchup the EB2-I dates stopping the upward porting completely.
3) Moderate spillover from EB2-ROW to EB2-I. This will continue until the EB2-ROW and EB3-ROW demand split equally.

What makes the FY09 EB2-I PDs move forward at least next year?
The points 2 & 3 from the above question are directly or indirectly tied up with the actions happening in EB3 category.
Here is what I'm thinking that will happen: Seeing the low demand in EB3-ROW will give a huge spillover to EB3-I by this yearend, I was expecting this should be around 20k spillover for the long time now. If this happens then the EB3-I backlogs will erase till 2007 and CO will get an opportunity to open up the FY08 and FY09 for EB3-I to see that there is not much demand exists (as most of them are ported already), that is when the EB3-I will catch up with EB2-I dates, nullifying the upward porting and making way to downward porting and forward movement in EB2-I beyond FY09 PDs. So KEY here is the huge spillover from EB3-ROW to EB3-I. ( I’m still positive this will happen this year)
Alternatively, based on point 3 above, currently the ROW demand is concentrated in EB2 which should be spread across equally into EB3 once the both categories become CURRENT, which will increase the EB2-ROW spillover but might reduce the EB3-ROW spillover, in either case EB2&3-I will get benefit from the spillover.
Going forward we need to consider these 2 categories EB2 and EB3 together yielding a combined spillover to EB2-I and EB3-I which interns dictates the need of downward porting from EB2-I to EB3-I.

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Thanks YTeleven for another great analysis. Hope your predictions for EB3 I come true and we start to see spill overs from EB3 ROW

Worry not, people. President Trump will kick us all out next year anyway. No more backlogs then!

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Originally Posted by abcx13

Worry not, people. President Trump will kick us all out next year anyway. No more backlogs then!

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Sorry to dampen the spirit. If trump wins GOP primary, GOP is guaranteed to lose in general election ! So backlogs are here to stay :-)

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Originally Posted by vishnu

This was as of Jan 12 so demand where dates were moved to feb 08. Either way only
Some demand would have cleared at that point, so net increase of 1500 doesn't amount o much porting.

So we wait for spillover and just 6k takes us to June 2009.

This inventory itself doesn't provide insight on spillover - for that we rely on recent co comments that there will be some from eb1 and eb2 row.

If we close year in summer 2009, next year will be more significantly from the trends yteleven pointed out - downgrades etc. I see deep 2010 by end of next year.

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I agree that CO comments need to be taken into account when we get a Pending Inventory Report whose numbers are suspect, because DOS would know more about utilization than USCIS does. Even if EB1 SO is 3-4, that would be a welcome relief for EB2I.

As far as net increase of 1500 in a quarter, that is big deal bro. It projects out to 6K for the Year.

Keep the spirits up people, its darkest before dawn.

There are a few things I think all of us are overlooking. The first and foremost is economy. If the economy crashes and it looks like it will and EB3I inventory is reduced then EB2I has no were to go but forward.

This is the election year. No one will take drastic steps so the status quo will continue.

My wish is that as we get the next president elected next year, a lot of us with EADs would have gotten their GCs and a whole lot more would have filed for 485.

Amen

Iatiam

For EB2I there are roughly 1900 applications pending till end of 2007. These dates have been current for a long time. So are these new ported applications that keeps coming in or are they old applications stuck there for a long time?

From Jan 2016 Pending Inventory
-------------EB2 ---------------EB3
ROW----19,466-----------------12,212
China----2,000------------------2,000 [allocation for next 3 Quarters]
Mexico----899-------------------1,398
Phi-------1,341------------------4,500 [ allocation in net 3 Q, every year PHI gets around 5K to meet 7% EB quota]
----------------------------------------------------
----------23,706--------------- 19,610
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Assuming next 3 Quarters we have 30K [ My guess it will be more] in EB2 & EB3 each

Assuming cases filed in 2016 [ EB2 @2000 and EB3 @1500] + Consular processing count match Inventory for OCT 2016.

EB2 Still gets around 6K this year, In addition to Already got in Oct-DEc'2015. Final movement PD may stop around April-May 2009.
EB3 Still gets around 10K this year, In addition to Already got in Oct-DEc'2015. Final movement PD may stop around April-May 2006.

I think this will be best optimal case.

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Originally Posted by kkruna

The main variable is larger proportion of EB2/EB3 in ROW domain - this is what is likely to throttle the movement of EB2I this year.

What I don't understand is EB3 ROW is practically current still what drives this larger ratio of EB2/EB3 in ROW.

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That is because education around the world has changed but immigration laws in the US are still antique and has not kept up with the times. I too used to think that as EB3ROW gets current, there will be more EB3ROW filings and less EB2ROW filings. Looks like that is not the case as whoever qualifies in EB2 will still file under EB2 as it is also current. The thing is - more people in the world who come to work in the US or study here and then work qualify for EB2 now. There is just few filings in EB3. I think that is what keeps the EB2ROW ratio the way it is with respect to EB3ROW.

My view is that it is matter of when most people come to realize that EB3 is now going to move faster than EB2. As of now that is not happening because EB2ROW is current.

People visiting this forum are generally educated in immigration matters. But quite a few people particularly ROW never need to visit any forums and get GCs pretty quickly.

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Originally Posted by EB3Iwaiting

That is because education around the world has changed but immigration laws in the US are still antique and has not kept up with the times. I too used to think that as EB3ROW gets current, there will be more EB3ROW filings and less EB2ROW filings. Looks like that is not the case as whoever qualifies in EB2 will still file under EB2 as it is also current. The thing is - more people in the world who come to work in the US or study here and then work qualify for EB2 now. There is just few filings in EB3. I think that is what keeps the EB2ROW ratio the way it is with respect to EB3ROW.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

People visiting this forum are generally educated in immigration matters. But quite a few people particularly ROW never need to visit any forums and get GCs pretty quickly.

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Agree. If someone can file AOS immediately after their PERM is approved and gets GC once the application is processed, why will anyone bother about pending inventory and quotas etc.? Stuck in the backlog forced us to get educated on these matters and of course get to see the shenanigans of USCIS first hand. Why will ROWs ever want the country cap to go away?

After seeing the Jan inventory, what is your take on the spillovers and movement? Hardly any reduction in EB3I inventory shows that we may be seen the end of pre-July 2007 porting. All who could have ported must have already done so. The 2k porting must be primarily from 08 and 09.

Also, why is EB3 China not "current"? They have less than their yearly quota in the pending inventory. This forces me to believe that even if India has 3k left in inventory after FY 2016, CO will still not move dates past July 07.

March 2005 EB3 inventory went UP from 2093 to 2136!! How is that possible? Even if these March 05 people forgot to file AOS the last time, they could not have filed since March 05 has never been current since July 07. Did USCIS find these 43 applications hidden in a closet in their basement that they found in the last 3 months?

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Originally Posted by EB3Iwaiting

March 2005 EB3 inventory went UP from 2093 to 2136!! How is that possible? Even if these March 05 people forgot to file AOS the last time, they could not have filed since March 05 has never been current since July 07. Did USCIS find these 43 applications hidden in a closet in their basement that they found in the last 3 months?

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USCIS visa Bulletins now have two dates. Filing dates and Final action dates. Filing date for EB3 I is Jul 1st 2005. That means these are new 485s that were filed recently.

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Originally Posted by EB3Iwaiting

After seeing the Jan inventory, what is your take on the spillovers and movement? Hardly any reduction in EB3I inventory shows that we may be seen the end of pre-July 2007 porting. All who could have ported must have already done so. The 2k porting must be primarily from 08 and 09.

Also, why is EB3 China not "current"? They have less than their yearly quota in the pending inventory. This forces me to believe that even if India has 3k left in inventory after FY 2016, CO will still not move dates past July 07.

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EB3 here are my quick "opinions".

Spillover - I think none are in play yet.
Movement - I believe EB3 should have a good year including EB3India. Not so EB2. We may see EB5 retrogress.
Porting - Yes I agree that porting pre 2007 should come to dead end. However 2K per quarter is very high. If you think about it - DOS is making it equitable to EB3ROW folks to allow them sufficient time to get adjudicated after porting. However their view of visa supply may prove wrong. (in simpler words the filing date for EB2India may be over optimistic).
China EB3 - I haven't checked lately. I wonder if EB3C as large CP backlog. That may prevent it from being current.

One rather simplistic spreadsheet calc of "delta" between the two inventories indicating how many visas were issued, and how many added (by counting -ive and +ive separately):



Attachment 890

(bear in mind that both "issued" and "added" can be higher)

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Originally Posted by amulchandra

USCIS visa Bulletins now have two dates. Filing dates and Final action dates. Filing date for EB3 I is Jul 1st 2005. That means these are new 485s that were filed recently.

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Not possible as USCIS have rendered the dates useless by not allowing anyone to file using Filing Dates.

yeah not possible. Makes me wonder if this is all really cooked up to justify something. I hope not.

One question - from where you got the visas issues?

I think USCIS did accept new cases based on filing date in the month of OCT/2015 and invalidated filing date there after.

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Originally Posted by amulchandra

One question - from where you got the visas issues?

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If you are asking me, then I just calculated the delta between corresponding cells of the two inventories:
-ive means "issued"
+ive means "added"

Note that above will miss situations where both addition and subtraction is happening in the same cell. Therefore both numbers are on lower side and kind of represents "minimum"

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

EB3 here are my quick "opinions".

Spillover - I think none are in play yet.
Movement - I believe EB3 should have a good year including EB3India. Not so EB2. We may see EB5 retrogress.
Porting - Yes I agree that porting pre 2007 should come to dead end. However 2K per quarter is very high. If you think about it - DOS is making it equitable to EB3ROW folks to allow them sufficient time to get adjudicated after porting. However their view of visa supply may prove wrong. (in simpler words the filing date for EB2India may be over optimistic).
China EB3 - I haven't checked lately. I wonder if EB3C as large CP backlog. That may prevent it from being current.

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Well, this is my first post in any forum(Visa). I am EB3 Aug 2009 and never got chance to file anything and i am not telling this because i am frustrated well i am already, But after reading all this and i am not that expert in understanding all this quota etc, i am sure about one thing. There is no real algorithm or process that USCIS/ DOS follow. It's just their decision whom to give and whom not to.

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Originally Posted by kkruna

If you are asking me, then I just calculated the delta between corresponding cells of the two inventories:
-ive means "issued"
+ive means "added"

Note that above will miss situations where both addition and subtraction is happening in the same cell. Therefore both numbers are on lower side and kind of represents "minimum"

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Got it. Thank you!

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Originally Posted by taraldesai

Well, this is my first post in any forum(Visa). I am EB3 Aug 2009 and never got chance to file anything and i am not telling this because i am frustrated well i am already, But after reading all this and i am not that expert in understanding all this quota etc, i am sure about one thing. There is no real algorithm or process that USCIS/ DOS follow. It's just their decision whom to give and whom not to.

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Hang in there. Several of us are in the same boat. We must wait and see how things unfold between June and September of this year. YTEleven has come up with a wonderful explanation. There is a chance for EB3I inventory build up in 2017 after a decade.

I don't get one part... the prediction is for upto 3 months monthly movement thru June...

if spillover is only applied from june (which CO confirmed in comments), then why would there be any movement thru june... wouldn't it just stop here and move in june... why predict upto 3 months? I cant see any scenario where dates would move further without spillover?

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Originally Posted by vishnu

I don't get one part... the prediction is for upto 3 months monthly movement thru June...

if spillover is only applied from june (which CO confirmed in comments), then why would there be any movement thru june... wouldn't it just stop here and move in june... why predict upto 3 months? I cant see any scenario where dates would move further without spillover?

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You are absolutely right. Both statements - "spillover is only applied from june" and "upto 3 months monthly movement thru June" are contradictory and both cannot be true at the same time. If we see any movement in next bulletin that means they already started applying SO from next bulletin.