EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

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06-08-2011, 01:19 PM
ssvp22

Everyone who gets a GC is a GC guru since that's what it takes these days :)
06-08-2011, 01:31 PM
TeddyKoochu

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

Teddy

You became GC-pandit my friend!

p.s. But of course all of us know you are a GURU!

Q thanks for your very kind words. I noticed the change after crossing 200 posts. Its really very nice of you and especially Veni & Spec & all others enriching this forum Iam a very small person / contributor here. Thanks again for today’s news words cannot really express the happiness / gratitude, I have very high hopes now for the VB. If the bulletin crosses Feb. 2007 it will be great in my opinion, I hope it goes into March so that you get it this month itself.
06-08-2011, 01:36 PM
zenmaster

I think cut off will move somewhere between March - May 2007.
06-08-2011, 01:45 PM
cbpds1

My guess is Apr'08 or May'08
06-08-2011, 02:03 PM
nishant2200

Quote:

Originally Posted by cbpds1

My guess is Apr'08 or May'08

I am having similar vibes too, especially after the "Source" information. But sometimes we get colored by our own PD, and we tend to see what we want to see. But still, I can dream for two more days at least, before Friday, I get awakened :)

I hope it's friday, else my entire weekend, I will be tense!
06-08-2011, 02:07 PM
kd2008

I think the gurus and pandits on this forum are amazing. Thank you for your service to the community. Q, did your contact ask CO about how the dates might move past July 2007? :p
06-08-2011, 02:09 PM
qesehmk

That's so true - we do get colored by our own PD.

As per any movement beyond Aug 2007 ... I don't deny the possibility exists. However I firmly believe any such movement won't be sustainable i.e. will be retrogressed in a couple of months after those people are able to file 485s.

Quote:

Originally Posted by nishant2200

I am having similar vibes too, especially after the "Source" information. But sometimes we get colored by our own PD, and we tend to see what we want to see. But still, I can dream for two more days at least, before Friday, I get awakened :)

I hope it's friday, else my entire weekend, I will be tense!
06-08-2011, 02:12 PM
anuran

cdpds1:

Are you saying April/May 2008 for July Bulletin or September Bulletin? Did you mean 2007 ? Of course I do not mind 2008.

By the way, Q deserves a thanks for the info. Per my estimate by Sep, the cutoff should hit August'07. And I believe it is going in that direction.
06-08-2011, 02:24 PM
chirag.n

does CO stand for consular officer? is that a pretty high ranking position?
06-08-2011, 02:27 PM
sha_kus

All Guru's:

I have been a silent reader of this forum and this is somewhat first post for me. firstly i want to thank you people for all the courage you people have given me finally i bought a house even though my PD is Aug 2008. I have learned from this forum that GC is nothing in front of my happiness and family. Thanks Q's Source for this information. I am happy for everybody who will get current.

Thought :

why are all people saying now also they will not do 2007 fiasco. actually this should not be a 2007 fiasco because in 2007 both Eb2 and 3 became current now they are looking at just eb2 current (no offense to eb3). So this is just half the fiasco. just my thought.

S
06-08-2011, 02:27 PM
zenmaster

Quote:

Originally Posted by chirag.n

does CO stand for consular officer? is that a pretty high ranking position?

:D
You are not kidding, right ?
CO is Charles Oppenheim. Chief of VO.

He is like charlie of movie 'Ghulam'... jab charlie bhagta hai na, tab rajdhani bhi usko salute karti hai !!!! :D
06-08-2011, 02:42 PM
chirag.n

ok..thanks ravi!

i guess i haven't seen the movie ghulam, but the quote drove home the point pretty well...

so how good is this oppenheim's guys words...do we have any intel on his past actions/words and whether what he says comes true or not?

Quote:

Originally Posted by ravi.shah

:D
You are not kidding, right ?
CO is Charles Oppenheim. Chief of VO.

He is like charlie of movie 'Ghulam'... jab charlie bhagta hai na, tab rajdhani bhi usko salute karti hai !!!! :D
06-08-2011, 02:45 PM
nijor.deha

We are in 100 page today. Thank you so much to Q,Veni,Teddy and Spec.This forum is giving lot of hope and courage to everyone
06-08-2011, 03:03 PM
skpanda

we reached Century with a sixer news from Q!! That is a good sign!!

Few members suggested that we open a new thread and archive this one. I would recommend that we archive this thread in October and start a new thread for FY 2012. This will help people go thru archives in a logical way. Also the header will be very meaningful... giving information on where we started and ended in a FY.
06-08-2011, 03:15 PM
zenmaster

Quote:

Originally Posted by skpanda

we reached Century with a sixer news from Q!! That is a good sign!!

Few members suggested that we open a new thread and archive this one. I would recommend that we archive this thread in October and start a new thread for FY 2012. This will help people go thru archives in a logical way. Also the header will be very meaningful... giving information on where we started and ended and a FY.

I second this suggestion !
06-08-2011, 03:17 PM
cbpds1

This is not based off my PD, but many folks with PD =Apr 2008 who applied for Consular Processing have got emails to pay their 485 fees.

hence the prediction of apr 2008

Quote:

Originally Posted by nishant2200

I am having similar vibes too, especially after the "Source" information. But sometimes we get colored by our own PD, and we tend to see what we want to see. But still, I can dream for two more days at least, before Friday, I get awakened :)

I hope it's friday, else my entire weekend, I will be tense!
06-08-2011, 03:18 PM
skpanda

Quick Q -

EB2

If we see DOS demand data for June 2011 - Demand is almost 0 for 'ROW'.
However USCIS June 2011 inventory - Invenotry/Demand is 9.5K for ROW.

Does this mean that the 9.5K for ROW in inventory have issues like RFE etc and DOS does not consider them as potential demand in near future?

Anybody knows why we have this discrepancy.
06-08-2011, 03:21 PM
qesehmk

Or all those 9.5K are taking them time through USCIS processing machine. Right. There doesn't have to be an issue. Even normal processing takes some time.

Quote:

Originally Posted by skpanda

Quick Q -

EB2

If we see DOS demand data for June 2011 - Demand is almost 0 for 'ROW'.
However USCIS June 2011 inventory - Invenotry/Demand is 9.5K for ROW.

Does this mean that the 9.5K for ROW in inventory have issues like RFE etc and DOS does not consider them as potential demand in near future?

Anybody knows why we have this discrepancy.
06-08-2011, 03:24 PM
neospeed

Quote:

Originally Posted by skpanda

Quick Q -

EB2

If we see DOS demand data for June 2011 - Demand is almost 0 for 'ROW'.
However USCIS June 2011 inventory - Invenotry/Demand is 9.5K for ROW.

Does this mean that the 9.5K for ROW in inventory have issues like RFE etc and DOS does not consider them as potential demand in near future?

Anybody knows why we have this discrepancy.

January 1, 2011 9,250 20,350 125 29,725

Jan 1st 2011 data from dos. USCIS data is from June 2011.
06-08-2011, 03:25 PM
skpanda

Understood... but just wondering that DOS does not consider this as demand (since its possible that 75% of those will be approved some time in future)

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

Or all those 9.5K are taking them time through USCIS processing machine. Right. There doesn't have to be an issue. Even normal processing takes some time.
06-08-2011, 03:38 PM
leo07

Thanks Q

Thanks Q for the "Breaking News". You,TeddyK and I need to wait for the "happiest" news, "happier" is ok, but wouldn't take us out of the Q.

Best!
06-08-2011, 03:53 PM
qesehmk

Demand is only those applications that are "DOCUMENTARILY QUALIFIED".

Quote:

Originally Posted by skpanda

Understood... but just wondering that DOS does not consider this as demand (since its possible that 75% of those will be approved some time in future)
06-08-2011, 04:12 PM
shaumack

Just read this on Chinese website where they also quote Q's blog. Feb 2007 then it be. :)

"The Indians got similar message with my company attorney. I believe this
information is from the same source with mine. My company attorney believes that the PD will be Feb.2007 and 6000-8000 SO will be released in July. The Indians have the same information. information is from the same source with mine. My company attorney believes that the PD will be Feb.2007 and 6000-8000 SO will be released in July. The Indians have the same information."
06-08-2011, 04:17 PM
skpanda

yes... happy/happier/happiest has different meanings for individuals.

For my PD in Dec 2010. For July VB

Happy for me is - Feb/March 2007
Happier for me is - Aug 2007
Happiest - CURRENT :)

Good luck to all and may they get 'happiest' information soon!

Quote:

Originally Posted by leo07

Thanks Q for the "Breaking News". You,TeddyK and I need to wait for the "happiest" news, "happier" is ok, but wouldn't take us out of the Q.

Best!
06-08-2011, 04:18 PM
tanu_75

Quote:

Originally Posted by shaumack

Just read this on Chinese website where they also quote Q's blog. Feb 2007 then it be. :)

"The Indians got similar message with my company attorney. I believe this
information is from the same source with mine. My company attorney believes that the PD will be Feb.2007 and 6000-8000 SO will be released in July. The Indians have the same information. information is from the same source with mine. My company attorney believes that the PD will be Feb.2007 and 6000-8000 SO will be released in July. The Indians have the same information."

I love how it says the "Indians", as if its a bunch of Chinese folks in an action movie discussing around a table "Our Indian friends are saying that the dates are going to move". No offence taken by the way, just funny and it is true. :D

If anyone measured the productivity on I/C EB immigrants in the first 10 days of every month, god will they be surprised.
06-08-2011, 04:18 PM
skpanda

Thanks for clarifying...

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

Demand is only those applications that are "DOCUMENTARILY QUALIFIED".
06-08-2011, 04:21 PM
skpanda

yeah.. this is so addictive...

Quote:

Originally Posted by tanu_75

If anyone measured the productivity on I/C EB immigrants in the first 10 days of every month, god will they be surprised.
06-08-2011, 04:25 PM
chirag.n

its like the united nations...the indians are doing this so lets do that...like bush used to call it...strategery :cool:

Quote:

Originally Posted by tanu_75

I love how it says the "Indians", as if its a bunch of Chinese folks in an action movie discussing around a table "Our Indian friends are saying that the dates are going to move". No offence taken by the way, just funny and it is true. :D

If anyone measured the productivity on I/C EB immigrants in the first 10 days of every month, god will they be surprised.
06-08-2011, 04:32 PM
cbpds1

USCIS can help us get rid of this addiction :)

Quote:

Originally Posted by skpanda

yeah.. this is so addictive...
06-08-2011, 04:54 PM
leo07

There are two sets of people..

- One who is waiting for Demand Data so that they can estimate how far it goes by September of this year
- One who thinks could become current this VB and anxiously waiting to see the result.

There could be some intersection between these two sets, depending on where the individual falls on the spectrum :)
06-08-2011, 04:55 PM
veni001

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

Friends,

So finally our source had a discussion with CO in Visa Office.

Here is what CO had to say - "There will be significant movement in July. If people were happy with the June movement, they will be happier with the movement in July."

I guess it means the dates will definitely move past Jan 07.

Good luck everybody! And a BIG thanks to our source! He has asked all of us to "pray" for him since he is current and is expecting a GC anytime now. My best wishes to him!!

Q,
Great news Thanks to you and your Source.
06-08-2011, 05:00 PM
srinivasj

lol..i fall into second set..I have been waiting for the bulletin to see if my date could be current for the last 4 years..

Quote:

Originally Posted by leo07

- One who is waiting for Demand Data so that they can estimate how far it goes by September of this year
- One who thinks could become current this VB and anxiously waiting to see the result.

There could be some intersection between these two sets, depending on where the individual falls on the spectrum :)
06-08-2011, 05:07 PM
veni001

Quote:

Originally Posted by sha_kus

All Guru's:

I have been a silent reader of this forum and this is somewhat first post for me. firstly i want to thank you people for all the courage you people have given me finally i bought a house even though my PD is Aug 2008. I have learned from this forum that GC is nothing in front of my happiness and family. Thanks Q's Source for this information. I am happy for everybody who will get current.

Thought :

why are all people saying now also they will not do 2007 fiasco. actually this should not be a 2007 fiasco because in 2007 both Eb2 and 3 became current now they are looking at just eb2 current (no offense to eb3). So this is just half the fiasco. just my thought.

S

sha_kus,
Post July 2007 Fiasco there are more EB2I&C filings than EB3 ( based on the data sources). Making EB2I&C current could result in any where between 100k-150k new i485 filings!
06-08-2011, 05:10 PM
veni001

Quote:

Originally Posted by nijor.deha

We are in 100 page today. Thank you so much to Q,Veni,Teddy and Spec.This forum is giving lot of hope and courage to everyone

Want to thank each one of you for participation and contribution.
06-08-2011, 05:14 PM
pravara

Quote:

Originally Posted by tanu_75

I love how it says the "Indians", as if its a bunch of Chinese folks in an action movie discussing around a table "Our Indian friends are saying that the dates are going to move". No offence taken by the way, just funny and it is true. :D

If anyone measured the productivity on I/C EB immigrants in the first 10 days of every month, god will they be surprised.

-->I too love Z Injians... :)
06-08-2011, 05:27 PM
tanu_75

Quote:

Originally Posted by pravara

-->I too love Z Injians... :)

Thank you, come again. ;)

No offence meant to I,C or ROW.
06-08-2011, 05:57 PM
donvar

Quote:

Originally Posted by cbpds1

This is not based off my PD, but many folks with PD =Apr 2008 who applied for Consular Processing have got emails to pay their 485 fees.

hence the prediction of apr 2008

As read from previous posts, they send fee request a year in advance.
Early 2008 PD will not reach until 2012 Q3 (that too only if USCIS/DOS wish to create a buffer) . Our Gurus have created so much PWMB demand that it has become difficult for dates to progress into early 2008 until 2012 Q3/Q4.
06-08-2011, 06:03 PM
leo07

Spec, & Veni

Thanks for the "Facts & Data". Looks cool.

Did anyone correlate PERM for year (A), 140-Data for a year (A+1) & 485 data for year A+2?( for ROW )
and
PERM for year (A), 140-Data for a year (A+1) ( for IC)

Just out of curiosity, of course there would be people who filed I-140 in each of those years and would have contributed to the economy & statistics alike. ( like me? :))

Some crazy thoughts.
06-08-2011, 06:57 PM
cbpds1

Quote:

Originally Posted by donvar

As read from previous posts, they send fee request a year in advance.
Early 2008 PD will not reach until 2012 Q3 (that too only if USCIS/DOS wish to create a buffer) . Our Gurus have created so much PWMB demand that it has become difficult for dates to progress into early 2008 until 2012 Q3/Q4.

Did u get a chance to calculate till when the PD will move if we need 20K buffer?......there isnt 20k PWMB folks.....plus they dont calculate the excat date for buffer since they might deny some applications, so chill !!
06-08-2011, 09:27 PM
veni001

Demand data used for Monthly EB Cutoff Dates for FY 2010 & FY 2011

Demand data used for Monthly EB Cutoff Dates for FY 2010 & FY 2011 (March 2010 - June 2011) is available in FACTS AND DATA section now.

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