EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

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Originally Posted by axialtilt

@indiani, any update on the content of the recording?

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listening to it now, if anything worthwhile i will post the info

here is some I thought worthwhile to post:
EB2-I for this year no other news other than jan 2008 for next bulletin.( in the future EB2I will not receive anywhere close to 20K like in the past )
EB5 this yr 9K ( next yr expected to be 10K and might retrogess)
EB2-I pattern of movement in 2014 similar to this year.
no signficant FB SO in 2014 ( this year considered lucky for india according to presenters :D)
lot of EB3WW upgrade this year ( why FA is low from EB2WW)

I skipped most of it as it boring so will try to listen to entirety soon and will post anything important,
the whole thing is for dummies ( useful for someone who doesn't understand the process )

sorry that I didnt find anything to predict for sept 2013 from the recording but next yr in the absense of cir and also without FB SO and increased EB5, things arent rosy
with CIR ( if final version includes recapture ) everyone will be C.

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Originally Posted by indiani

lot of EB3WW upgrade this year ( why FA is low from EB2WW)

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Exactly what I feared indiani. Thank you for posting.

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

Chinese are expecting India to join them at the end of this FY, their target PD is same as Q's September 2008. They think there is no retrogression for EB2C hereafter.

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Kanmani-

What's latest chatter there about the first part of the prediction from Chinese forums(EB2I catching up with EB2C)? Later part of prediction seem almost certain now.

charlie was in mexico, the presenters were really dummies as they hardly ever crunched numbers and they were delivering news from charlie who was on vacation in mexico.

when they clearly mentioned jan 2008, I dont know why only Oh cared to mention and not murthy. ( Oh should get credit for it )
I am afraid of copyright violations so cant post the entire content online

indiani,

Thank you very much for sharing. It is much appreciated.

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Originally Posted by indiani

here is some I thought worthwhile to post:
EB2-I for this year no other news other than jan 2008 for next bulletin.( in the future EB2I will not receive anywhere close to 20K like in the past )
EB5 this yr 9K ( next yr expected to be 10K and might retrogess)
EB2-I pattern of movement in 2014 similar to this year.
no signficant FB SO in 2014 ( this year considered lucky for india according to presenters :D)
lot of EB3WW upgrade this year ( why FA is low from EB2WW)

I skipped most of it as it boring so will try to listen to entirety soon and will post anything important,
the whole thing is for dummies ( useful for someone who doesn't understand the process )

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Looks no further movement for EB2I in Sep bulletin. God knows when will the dates move forward.

Thanks Indiani, it was indeed nice of you to share the essence. The bullet points you summarized, confirms Spec/Q's thought process shared in the forum. I understand there was some mention of how porting cases are double counted( both in EB3 and EB2). Is there any new learning of how porting cases are handled when PD is not current. Also any mention of why EB3I cases are dropping where PD is not current.?

Even though less spill over will be available for India going forward, the good news is India will solely consume all the spill over for next 2-3 years. In the past, India had to share it with China. So, is it fair to say that the net effect will be India getting same amount of spill over as previous years?

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Yes. That's fair.

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Q,

I remember few yr's back you had some source in Visa office..Is it possible to get some info for Sep. bulletin please?

Would appreciate your reply.

Thanks

i think what everyone feared to be most conservative might have been taking place ( only speculation ) :

heavy EB5 demand
heavy EB2WW usage

IMHO I dont think there will be like 6 months movement but rather 2-4 months at the best ( this is only one man's opinion and I dont want people to get nervous about it ) .

jan 2008 in aug bulletin was mentioned for the question: how far EB2I will move for 2013?

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Originally Posted by indiani

here is some I thought worthwhile to post:
EB2-I for this year no other news other than jan 2008 for next bulletin.( in the future EB2I will not receive anywhere close to 20K like in the past )
EB5 this yr 9K ( next yr expected to be 10K and might retrogess)
EB2-I pattern of movement in 2014 similar to this year.
no signficant FB SO in 2014 ( this year considered lucky for india according to presenters :D)
lot of EB3WW upgrade this year ( why FA is low from EB2WW)

I skipped most of it as it boring so will try to listen to entirety soon and will post anything important,
the whole thing is for dummies ( useful for someone who doesn't understand the process )

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Thanks for sharing! This memo probably has something to do with the EB-5 retrogression forecast - USCIS Policy Memorandum May 2013

From the looks of it I think Q's and Spec's calculations are spot on and also Matt's calculations in other forum where he updated his calculation sheet we might expect movement to be anywhere from Apr 2008- July 2008.

I am hoping it is July so that lot of folks can get GC's and folks like me with Apr 4th date would be able to atleast file I-485 as I missed boat last time..I think I am more of hit/miss scenario from all your discussions.

guru's do you think this is fair assessment well with USCIS anything can happen but atleast with what is available and what Indiani has posted is this a decent assumption..

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Originally Posted by MATT2012

Thanks Indiani, it was indeed nice of you to share the essence. The bullet points you summarized, confirms Spec/Q's thought process shared in the forum. I understand there was some mention of how porting cases are double counted( both in EB3 and EB2). Is there any new learning of how porting cases are handled when PD is not current. Also any mention of why EB3I cases are dropping where PD is not current.?

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you are correct that EB2 and 2 are double counted until the case is approved ( the they will drop out of EB3), (its mentioned in PDF files that comes with audio.)
"IVCRD has no information on applicants with approved I-140
Immigrant Worker petitions (nor for that matter, applicants having approved I-130 Alien
Relative petitions) where AOS is selected, but the AOS was not filed despite a prior filing
eligibility window, or the applicant was never eligible for AOS filing, and the I-485 cannot now
be filed due to priority date backlogs." ( from AILA prsentation )
I hope you can interpret the above and get answer to you question

[QUOTE=indiani;37343]everyone with approved i-140 is counted in DD

Indiani..Can you please clarify this as I thought folks who filed I-485 are counted in DD..

“Mr. Oppenheim reminds AILA that DOS cannot ‘see’ the I-140 cases that are approved and for which
adjustment of status had been requested , though he can ‘see’ cases for which consular processing is requested."
( courtesy AILA presentation )

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Originally Posted by suninphx

Kanmani-

What's latest chatter there about the first part of the prediction from Chinese forums(EB2I catching up with EB2C)? Later part of prediction seem almost certain now.

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Sun,

They are in shock with no movement this month, which was totally unexpected. No news so far predicting Sept.

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Originally Posted by vedu

Even though less spill over will be available for India going forward, the good news is India will solely consume all the spill over for next 2-3 years. In the past, India had to share it with China. So, is it fair to say that the net effect will be India getting same amount of spill over as previous years?

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not necessarily. In past years, eb2I has got 16K+ visas. It sounds like next year will be lean. this year would have been too without the FB bonus. Inspite of that EB2I is getting about 17K visas total. I think the overall pot itself is getting smaller. But EB2I will consume all of the spillover so hopefully, we'll get close to the 16K mark every year.

Next year, we will get FA from EB2WW and FD from EB1. I can't imagine EB4 and EB5 giving anything meaningul (if anything) at all. Will it be enough to get to the 16-18K mark? dont know yet.

[QUOTE=wolverine82;37344]

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Originally Posted by indiani

everyone with approved i-140 is counted in DD

Indiani..Can you please clarify this as I thought folks who filed I-485 are counted in DD..

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sorry i posted that in a hurry, please ignore and see my edited post and interpret for yourself, my interpretation is that perhaps its not reflected in DD ( any interfilers or new AOS applicants, only folks who already filed under EB2I 485 are in DD)

Thanks appreciate the comments that makes sense!!
[QUOTE=indiani;37348]

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Originally Posted by wolverine82

sorry i posted that in a hurry, please ignore and see my edited post and interpret for yourself, my interpretation is that perhaps its not reflected in DD ( any interfilers or new AOS applicants, only folks who already filed under EB2I 485 are in DD)

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

Sun,

They are in shock with no movement this month, which was totally unexpected. No news so far predicting Sept.

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Thanks Kanmani !

I am sorry. We don't. That was a fellow EB2I guy - a doctor - who got his GC and is no longer in touch.

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Originally Posted by yank

Q,

I remember few yr's back you had some source in Visa office..Is it possible to get some info for Sep. bulletin please?

Would appreciate your reply.

Thanks

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Thanks vizcard!

It makes sense to me.

Thanks for sharing the gist of the audio recording indiani. It is very much appreciated.

Based on input from various experts on this forum, it seems like 2-4 months movement (at most) is what should happen in the Sep bulletin, but no official indication from CO yet, so it is tough to make that conclusion for sure.

The only tangible thing that still gives me some hope of movement in the Sep bulletin is the PD date range for which the recent RFEs were issued (till March 2008, where most of the significant data points ended). I am hoping that was based on some solid guidance provided from DOS to USCIS. I would hate to think they would bother so many people with RFEs unless they feel some movement is more or less certain. But of course, we can never be sure. I sure hope it moves a significant amount in Sep, but I can only hope at this point. Because it sounds like prospects are very bleak for FY2014 and onwards (without CIR).

This is precisely the reason why people in 2008 who miss getting the GC will have to wait at least 2 years for the dates to return back to their PDs. This is a terrible situation for EB2I. What must also stop is the abuse of EB1-C(Category C). Indiani was there any reference to this category. If this abuse is stopped then EB2I will move forward fast. Just my 2 cents.

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Originally Posted by druvraj

This is precisely the reason why people in 2008 who miss getting the GC will have to wait at least 2 years for the dates to return back to their PDs. This is a terrible situation for EB2I. What must also stop is the abuse of EB1-C(Category C). Indiani was there any reference to this category. If this abuse is stopped then EB2I will move forward fast. Just my 2 cents.

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none about EB 1C

does anyone else find it odd that we still dont have DD for august

I heard someone saying that CO missed putting out DD when there were such rapid movements couple of times..

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Originally Posted by indiani

does anyone else find it odd that we still dont have DD for august

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In FY2011, we missed demand data in July. FY2012- Jan and May and this is the first one FY2013.

well then not seeing DD is a good thing :)

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Originally Posted by MATT2012

In FY2011, we missed demand data in July. FY2012- Jan and May and this is the first one FY2013.

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Matt,

in the rapid movement last year how many visas at the max were approved per day, the reason I am asking is to anticipate when 2007 PD preadjudicated case might have a chance to get e-mail about approval .
If they can approve 1000K per day of pre-adjudicated cases then I can expect most likely within a week, if 500 per day then 2 weeks and if its going to be a random pick up of files anyday in august

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Originally Posted by indiani

Matt,

in the rapid movement last year how many visas at the max were approved per day, the reason I am asking is to anticipate when 2007 PD preadjudicated case might have a chance to get e-mail about approval .
If they can approve 1000K per day of pre-adjudicated cases then I can expect most likely within a week, if 500 per day then 2 weeks and if its going to be a random pick up of files anyday in august

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Do not got by last year statistics, as last year most of the I-485s had to go through the whole adjudication process. This fiscal year, is just the final check before GC issue. I think majority of the approvals will happen by third week for cases already in demand(65-70%), all that I fear is further RFE cases.

Thanks a lot to all for all the good work
Not a frequent visitor to any forum.
Just have a question, which i know would be difficult for anyone to answer.
I am eb2-I, April-02-2008 date. Wondering when would I be current
Not yet filed 485..

thanks

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Originally Posted by fun4dddd

Thanks a lot to all for all the good work
Not a frequent visitor to any forum.
Just have a question, which i know would be difficult for anyone to answer.
I am eb2-I, April-02-2008 date. Wondering when would I be current
Not yet filed 485..

thanks

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50% chance u will be current in sept

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Originally Posted by indiani

50% chance u will be current in sept

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and 100% by July 2014 :)

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Originally Posted by indiani

Matt,

in the rapid movement last year how many visas at the max were approved per day, the reason I am asking is to anticipate when 2007 PD preadjudicated case might have a chance to get e-mail about approval .
If they can approve 1000K per day of pre-adjudicated cases then I can expect most likely within a week, if 500 per day then 2 weeks and if its going to be a random pick up of files anyday in august

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I agree with MATT that you can't necessarily extrapolate what happened last year.

In March 2012, when the highest number of EB2-I cases were approved, the monthly approval rate seems to be about 9k. That takes into account the fact that EB2-I became internally retrogressed from March 23, 2012.

Such a rate may not be possible this year for EB2-I. There is also unusual competition for adjudication resources from EB3-ROW-C-M due to the recent advances in their Cut Off Dates. That is likely to peak from August onwards.

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Originally Posted by MATT2012

Do not got by last year statistics, as last year most of the I-485s had to go through the whole adjudication process. This fiscal year, is just the final check before GC issue. I think majority of the approvals will happen by third week for cases already in demand(65-70%), all that I fear is further RFE cases.

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Matt/Q/Spec/Other Gurus,

Do you think that USCIS could be sending out large number of RFEs for already pre-adjudicated porting cases? If yes, do you expect them to be primarily EVL/ proof of status type RFEs or something else like birth/marriage certificates or vaccination records?

For people who have sent interfile requests after May 2012, USCIS should not be asking for EVL since they would have already got one at the time of interfiling. Would love to know your thoughts about this?


-Nik

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Originally Posted by fun4dddd

Thanks a lot to all for all the good work
Not a frequent visitor to any forum.
Just have a question, which i know would be difficult for anyone to answer.
I am eb2-I, April-02-2008 date. Wondering when would I be current
Not yet filed 485..

thanks

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My guess is that 75% of SO was applied to move dates until Jan1st,2008. With the remaining 25% EB2I PD may manage to reach end of March. But your date requires at least another one week of movement. I do not want to completely rule it out, as all our numbers are ranges. if EB1 consumes at the low end of our expectations it could. But I would say chances are slim.

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Originally Posted by MATT2012

My guess is that 75% of SO was applied to move dates until Jan1st,2008. With the remaining 25% EB2I PD may manage to reach end of March. But your date requires at least another one week of movement. I do not want to completely rule it out, as all our numbers are ranges. if EB1 consumes at the low end of our expectations it could. But I would say chances are slim.

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I am also in same boat apr 4 so counting days for next bulletin as i may hit/miss by a week from looks of all predictions