Rupen86 and sportsfan33, your contribution to the forum is highly valued and your insights are a great asset to this forum. That said, I would urge you to please create your own thread and move the discussion on politics to that thread. This thread is for discussing specific bills.
Thank you!
I do not think those discussions were irrelevant to the bill we are discussing. We are talking about possible CIR and how it might impact 3012. If the moderator thinks they are irrelevant, please feel free to delete them.Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
Here is a good analysis on demographics, changes to future senate procedures and possible CIR.
http://discuss.ilw.com/content.php?8...y-Greg-Siskind
75 % of Asians voted for Obama. I hope it get attention. though we are not as decisive block as others like African-American or Latinos.Quote:
Originally Posted by rupen86
To sportsfan33
This from morning tech on POLITICO
REID PLEDGES ACTION ON IMMIGRATION — We told you yesterday that a mix of electoral politics and existing congressional interest could push immigration reform — particularly, measures focused on high-skilled workers — back to the foreground. And Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid confirmed that in a press conference yesterday, telling reporters it's "very, very high on the list" of things to do next year. The "only thing we need to get immigration reform done is a few Republican votes," Reid said.
I know there is still a possibility of HR3012 in the lame duck session but the statement above seems to imply that it might be part of a larger immigration package in the next congress
Well, he said next year instead of next Congress, so maybe they will take it up next year? But I don't have any hopes when it comes to the feckless fools in Congress...
I agree. There is a sea change in the attitude of republicans on immigration. While we did not see practically a word on immigration bill in terms of CIR in last few years, we are starting to see lot of talk just after the election. See the link below.Quote:
Originally Posted by gs1968
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/09/us...tion.html?_r=0
I believe, we should just not be satisfied with 3012. Rather, we should focus on including other aspects in possible CIR package like recapture, excluding dependents etc. This will also get support from ROW EB community unlike 3012. I feel this is a golden opportunity and we should make every effort to get things done what we care about.
Yes, but Republicans are more interested in winning back the Latino base they've eliminated. Nobody gives a rat's ass about legal immigrants. I was reading some comments in the WSJ from Obama about how he was going to focus on CIR, which meant legalizing illegals and giving them a path to perm residency and citizenship.Quote:
Originally Posted by rupen86
He didn't say anything about legal immigration...
Legalizing illegals is not going make a dime's worth of difference to America's economic woes whereas bringing in highly-educated scientists and researchers would...yet guess what Congress would rather do.
I agree. That's where the focus would be..But even for the purpose of showing that they have done something about legal immigration, they will have to include something on legal immigration.Quote:
Originally Posted by abcx13
I agree with sportsfan that STEM or no STEM or recapture or no recapture, the country limits need to go. They are blatantly discriminatory and are just a different form of racism.
One more link showing immigration effort will begin post inauguration.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/1...n_2093178.html
It also tells that democrat bill would be in line with the one introduced by Robert Menendez which included visa recapture.
http://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/112/s1258/text
Interestingly, this bill (Menendez) does not include per country quota removal. Instead, it increases to 15%. But it includes visa recapture and looks like it includes excluding dependents from the count.
Both those links are the same (inadvertant mistake perhaps?). Nowhere do they talk about legal immigration.
Filibuster is used by both democrats and Republicans. The removal will do harm for both parties. If they remove now and there is a possiblity for GOP to get majority in 2 years or 4 years. That time they will revert the bills passed by democrats. Also they may need 60 votes to remove filibuster rule. Or they will filibuster the filibuster removal.
Republicans might want to think about getting on the train. Though they’ve mucked up opportunities to take over the Senate in 2010 and 2012, they have another opportunity in 2014, when Democrats will have 20 seats up for re-election and Republicans will be defending only 13. If the filibuster ends now, there’s a real chance that the first party to benefit from a reformed Washington would be the Republicans. That should be a change they can believe in.
Quote:
Originally Posted by abcx13
Sorry for the mistake. Here it is. I have corrected in the earlier post also.Quote:
Originally Posted by abcx13
http://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/112/s1258/text
I had a quick look and found considerably more than that.Quote:
Originally Posted by rupen86
a) Recapture of previously wasted visas.
b) Rollover of any wasted visas to the next year.
c) Exempt from Numerical Limitations
1) Dependents
2) EB1A
3) Aliens who have earned an advanced degree in the sciences (not including the social sciences), technology, engineering, or mathematics from a United States institution of higher education (as defined in section 1001(a) of title 20) and have been working in a field related to their degree subject in the United States under a nonimmigrant visa during the 2-year period preceding their application for an immigrant visa under section 203(b).
4) Alien physicians who have completed service requirements of a waiver or exemption requested by an interested State agency or by an interested Federal agency under section 214(l), including those alien physicians who completed such service before the date of the enactment of this subparagraph.
5) Also see (e). Not EB but helpful to those that marry after GC.
d) Elimination of the EB-1A Preference Category because of (c)(2).
e) Reclassification Of Spouses And Minor Children Of Lawful Permanent Residents As Immediate Relatives. They're no longer subject to Numerical Limits and F2A would no longer exist.
f) Increase Per Country Limit to 15%.
g) Allow filing of an I-485 based on having an approved I-140, subject to the primary applicant paying a fee of $500.
h) AP and EAD in 3 year increments.
i) Visa Revalidation for (E), (H), (I), (L), (O), or (P) visas within the USA.
j) H4 status allowed to work.
Just exempting Dependents from Numerical Limits effectively raises the overall allocation to about 300k.
On top of that the number no longer has to cover EB1A, Advanced STEM degree holders earned at a US Institution and the alien physician exemption.
The real number in today's terms would be nearer 400-500k per year.
Yes, with this kind of bill, everything would be current even with per country cap.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
STEM Bill
This was on POLITICO today
"LAWMAKERS HAGGLING OVER STEM GREEN CARD BILL — From Eliza Krigman: “Rep. Lamar Smith is looking to advance a new version of STEM green card legislation during the lame duck, according to several tech industry sources. ... The legislation in the works would swap 55,000 so-called diversity visas for the same number of green cards for foreign students with advanced degrees in science, technology, engineering and math fields.
“The House rejected a similar bill by Smith last September, on a vote that required a supermajority for passage. Aides for Smith and Schumer are said to be negotiating over so-called family-based provisions governing the immigration of spouses and children of legal permanent residents. The new version, according to sources following the issue, may include language allowing the spouses and children to wait in the U.S. for their green card, as opposed to waiting abroad. But negotiations on details of the family-based provisions are ongoing, and Schumer’s office hasn’t seen a bill reflecting that language.” The Pro story: http://politico.pro/UyLABd
I don't know how much of this is new information.I had posted a link 4-5 days ago that already contained this information
http://www.rollcall.com/news/Last-Di...1.html?pos=hln
Anyway following up on the theme from yesterday-any movement on these immigration ideas is most likely after the second-term inauguration of President Obama
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/1...n_2093178.html
I could not open Politico Pro story. I think it requires registration. But if only STEM bill passes in the lame duck without 3012, it won't be good news for us. They would feel that something has been done about legal immigration and next year when CIR negotiations take place, legal immigration aspects may be ignored.Quote:
Originally Posted by gs1968
In my view, the chances of passing any immigration bill during this lame duck session are NIL. Though I really wish for HR 3012 clear the congress during lame duck. The reason I think that because of the recent election outcome Democrats want to push for bigger bill rather than piece meal immigration (I hardly see the right wing in Republican Party accepting Immigration reform. Elections are just over and each media and most of the political analysts / politicians are talking about immigration, once dusts settle down then we will know how many will really talk about Immigration).
I hope that DREAM Act will pass in next 1 to 4 years and not sure any kind of legal immigration will be added to that. I guess tea party in republican will add removal of country quota in the DREAM Act proposal along with something else during negotiation. All we can do is wait and watch.
Some encouraging news.
http://www.metrocorpcounsel.com/arti...ck-session-yes
This is old and has been posted before. There does not seem to be much chance of immigration bill during lame duck now after the change in dynamics.Quote:
Originally Posted by immitime
On the other note:
Obama on Comprehensive immigration bill. I do not see anything here on legal immigration here except for farmers.
http://www.allvoices.com/contributed...gration-reform
If you really analyse for past 4 years pattern if the lawmakers does have some concerns of legal immigration bill they just tell the excuse as CIR. Those who are lobbying does not understand what is the mood of the congress. Basically they do not have any justification to add more green cards or H1b when unemployment is 8%. For Hr 3012 there is no unity among the groups that were lobbying. If a bill is non controversial then it should have passed within a few days. Microsoft lobbied for 20k h1b and green card with 10k and 15k fees. That did not go anywhere though new visa numbers were very less. Also Indian Eb3 is only thing which has impractical waiting time. Just for one category for one country persons is congress needs to pass a bill? If wiating time increases from 10 to 12 years any impact for USA? But if CIR comes then some relief will be there Let us wait and see.
Quote:
Originally Posted by rupen86
I dont think they will deal with immigration in the lame duck. They are doing to be heads down on the fiscal cliff issues.
If there is no justification for adding more green card, what is the justification for making 11m illegal as legal ?Quote:
Originally Posted by Ramsen
HR3012 was more than just about EB3I. From the perspective of most of the tech firms lobbying for it, it was likely more about EB2I and EB2C. But the country would have passed it not just to benefit the applicants, but also the employers. Besides, HR3012 also had a family component that would have made hundreds of thousands of citizens originally from the Philippines and Mexico happy.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ramsen
Also, I take issue with your characterization of my wait time as being practical. It's been 5.5 years since I first sent my lawyer my application and supporting material, and it'll likely be another year before I get my green card. 6.5 years is not a practical wait from my perspective. Even less so when you consider where my ROW peers are careerwise and compare that to where I stand. The flexibility of having a green card affords significant benefits. I have had to put a job offer on hold myself because the employer did not want to expose himself to the risk of me having to leave the country if my I485 was turned down.
To the basic point that you and Rupen both are making, that CIR is probably what will eventually include the country cap elimination provisions, I still have hope that HR3012 will be revisited in the lame-duck session. If that doesn't happen, I think CIR will be the catchall that will include it.
Absolutely do. Of my starting class in Investment Banking, there were only 4 of us that survived the several rounds of lay-offs in 2008 and 2009. I moved to a private equity client as soon as I got my I140 to avoid the risk of getting hit in future rounds. If i'd risked staying on, I would likely be a Director with my own clientele and fighting for a shot at making Managing Director and entering the big leagues. Of the 3 others who did stay on (1 citizen and 2 GC holders) one got laid off and the other two are still there and likely to make MD next year. I switched down a couple of gears in the interest of safety. My biggest crib now, though, is more personal than professional. I hate living 2000 miles away from my wife and daughter, when there is a job out there in Phoenix that is a perfect fit. Still, one perseveres as best one can.Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
Ramsen - I think EB quota is so less as it is - it doesn't dent unemployment a bit eitherway. Also - by definition - these are the jobs where qualified Americans are hard to find (technically of course!).
If unemployment was the reason - then why does that reason not discussed at all - when talking about CIR which would mean millions and millions of non EB workers? The reason is the power of voting block that stands behind CIR vs the non-existent voting block behind EB folks. EB folks do not have a voting block and other than very few tech leaders like Bill Gates - there virtually isn't a solid tech lobby support.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ramsen
I know what this looks like since i have been personally experiencing this since 3 months. Because of Sandy the client literally went under water and I am enjoying warm Arizona for now! I was stunned to see a photo of Bowling Green station completely under water.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pedro Gonzales
seems Irish E3 is still not dead.
http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/1115/bru...n-us-visa.html
If you say about unfairness there are lot in the immigration system. Why 55k diversity is needed? Why country quota is needed only in FB but not in EB. Those are benefits given to certain country people. If you remove country quota in FB demographics will change in a few years instead of 20 to 30 years time. We have wasted 2 years for Hr 3012. Do you want to waste more years by just asking removal of country quota? Instead why not establish a common ground with Row and all the other groups who are fighting for releif? Then it may be easier to get it. If you do not have unity in a smallest of the immigration group what can you get? You perception country quota is unfair. But Row perception is it is fair. So Senate may not act on this.Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
The FB system was based on the concept of diversity and uniting the families. These concepts do not apply to EB system. That's why quota system in EB is unfair. The law prohibits discrimination based on the country of origin. But quota system does just that. I believe now is not the time for HR 3012. It is time to achieve bigger than that. Time was never better for immigration bill than now. So, we should work on other aspects which will get ROW support like not counting dependents, recapturing visas etc. But I disagree with the logic that we should abandon 3012 just to have better terms with ROW. People are not going to give away benefits that they have however unfair they are. But now is not the time to fight for that. If CIR does not happen, then we should fall back on this plan.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ramsen
Now is THE time for H.R.3012,, if it is mixed with CIR it will never happen there is nothing so far in the CIR proposals for Legal immigration. and CIR is never going to happen. Again and Again counry based discrimination is UNFAIR and that will be eliminated by passing H.R.3012 and that will happen before Dec 31st.
CIR is a democratic party gimmick. The forthcoming immigration debate will center around the requirements for legalization and on how the undocumented population will eventually become citizens. Republicans such as Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., have suggested legalization but no citizenship, which is a nonstarter among Democrats. However, the process through which citizenship is obtained could be a place where both parties agree. It needs to be fair to those already waiting in line and yet doable for undocumented immigrants within their lifetimes.
it the vote by two senators that torpedoed the 2007 immigration bill? and wasn't one of those senators named Obama? Why did he do it? He weren't happy with the way it was going because some didn't want a blanket amnesty and forever chain migration. No CIR will pass as it is, all these are political gimmicks for the winning of the second term. No comprehensive bill is seeing light. only Piece meal fix will happen if at all something is happening.
If H.R.3012 is not happening before Dec 31st, better burn the passport and learn Latin language, all will get direct US citizenship!..Just kidding.
Quote:
Originally Posted by rupen86
I see several problems with HR 3012 working against it.Quote:
Originally Posted by immitime
First, if it were to happen, it would have happened much earlier after Grassley lifted the hold. No one knows the reason, but I feel some senators were opposing it either Grassley's amendments or 3012 itself and they wanted to pass by unanimous consent. So, even if one senator is dissatisfied, it would not pass.
Second thing that I see is that top level democratic leadership does not look keen on eliminating country quota. It is reflected in the earlier CIR bill put forward. In that bill, they wanted to increase quota from 7% to 15% rather than eliminating it.
Third problem is that, because CIR is in news all over the place, no one would want to negotiate and loose capital by passing a small bill.
CIR may not happen but the fact remains that there was never a better time than this to pass it. If 3012 is put up as part of CIR, it would not have to live on the mercy and blackmailing of people like Grassley.
I would say learn Spanish or Portuguese if you really want to go that route. You might be disappointed to discover later on that Latin is a dead language :).Quote:
Originally Posted by immitime
Also i would advise learing the language before burning the passport, just in case you change your mind later !!
Your analysis is close to mine. Even after passing in House Reid does not annouce anything about this bill. He was very careful and wise that he did not show his position.Quote:
Originally Posted by rupen86
But ** and many Indians are still optimistic about the bill. It is ok to take effort till end of the year. But based on practical situation you need to change accordlingly. If you do losing fight always then no end for this. So if elimination is country quota is difficult we can try recapture with increase of country quota to get some relief.
Hi Guru's please comment ?
http://newdelhi.usembassy.gov/pr111912.html
May be good news for EB friends?
http://thehill.com/blogs/hillicon-va...ouse-next-week
Quote:
Originally Posted by anish5
For the first link, I have this link referring to it.
http://www.ustraveldocs.com/in/in-niv-visarenew.asp
It says that if you are working for the same employer and your visa expired in last 12 months, then you qualify. So, it is little advantage but not whole lot.
For the second link, even though house passes STEM bill, there is no action expected in the senate. So, it is more of symbolic vote. Something they might like in CIR.
To rupen86
As far as the STEM Bill is concerned,I feel your position is overly pessimistic though one can hardly blame you for being so
I feel that it has a 50-50 chance of passing both chambers.Most Bills introduced in Congress have trouble getting voted upon once let alone being voted on twice like this Bill.I feel they would not have resurrected the Bill if they did not feel its chances as being positive. The fate of the Bill is dependent on the margin by which it passes.If it garners the support of a large number of Democrats then it might get some attention in the Senate.Please review the following articles especially the one from Roll Call
http://dailycaller.com/2012/11/21/th...d-for-thought/
http://www.rollcall.com/news/vote_wi...html?pos=oplyh
I am also copying the contents from the web blog RightsideNews about the essence of this Bill
"House to Resurrect STEM Bill During Lame-Duck
Republican Leadership in the U.S. House of Representatives announced last week its intention to take up STEM legislation introduced by Judiciary Chairman Lamar Smith (R-TX) during the lame-duck session. (CQ Today, Nov. 13, 2012) The bill, H.R. 6429, eliminates the visa lottery by reallocating the 55,000 green cards available under the program to two new employment-based visa categories, the EB-6 and EB-7. (See H.R. 6429; see also Judiciary Committee Summary of Bill)
The EB-6 category proposed under the legislation is intended for foreign students holding a PhD in a STEM field (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics) from a U.S. university who agrees to work for at least five-years in the aggregate for the petitioning employer or in the U.S. in a STEM field. (See H.R. 6429 at §2) Similarly, the proposed EB-7 category is intended for foreign students holding both a Master's and baccalaureate degree in a STEM field from a U.S. university who agrees to work for at least five-years in the aggregate for the petitioning employer or in the U.S. in a STEM field. (Id.) Those with Master's degrees would be granted a green card only after all qualifying PhD petitions have been granted. (Id.)
Under the bill, employers who petition to hire these graduates under the EB-6 or EB-7 categories must receive labor certification. This means that in order to approve a petition for an EB-6 or EB-7 green card, the Secretary of Homeland Security (DHS) must first receive certification from the Secretary of Labor that the petitioning employer cannot find sufficient, willing, qualified, and available American workers, and that employment of the alien will not adversely affect the wage and working conditions of similarly situated employees. (Id., see also INA § 212(a)(5)(A)) However, the bills allows the DHS Secretary to waive this requirement if he or she deems a waiver of such to be in the national interest.
The legislation also would create a new non-immigrant student visa category specifically for foreign students seeking to study in a STEM field and potentially seek an EB-6 or EB-7 green card in the future. (See H.R. 6429 at §5) While statutorily the provision is intended to get around the current requirement that foreign students declare they intend to return to their country of residence upon graduating, it has the potential to increase competition for American students studying in STEM fields, as universities benefit significantly from admitting foreign students who pay full tuition rates. (See INA § 101(a)(15)(F))
If Leadership makes good on its promise, it would be the second time in less than three months the bill is called to the floor for a vote. Republicans placed the bill on the House's suspension calendar in September, which requires a two-thirds vote to pass legislation. The bill failed, receiving a final vote of 257 to 158. (See Roll Call Vote #590)"
I feel that the time constraint is clearly there as both chambers are likely to adjourn by December 14.Whether this Bill is advantageous to I/C EB immigrants is questionable and I remember the number crunchers like Sportsfan/Spec etc analyzing this in detail a while back.
Another point to remember is the changing of the guard in the House Judiciary Committee chairmanship in the next Congress.As Rep Lamar Smith is term limited by Republican party rules,Rep.Robert Goodlatte of VA will assume chairmanship in Jan 2013. He is an outspoken opponent of the DV lottery and has introduced numerous Bills in every Congress to abolish this. Hence it is very likely he will attempt to do so again in 2013 and the Democrats may hold off passing this STEM Bill which abolishes the DV lottery to have a bargaining chip during CIR negotiations next year
From oh law firm. I agree with below analysis.Quote:
Originally Posted by gs1968
Report indicates that this bill will indeed be put up for a vote on Friday 11/30/2012 as this reporter suspected. The report also confirms our suspicion that there was no process of compromise and negotiation between the Republican and Democratic leaders for this bill to be reintroduced as reflected by strong opposition against this bill by the key Democratic Congresswoman, Zoe Lofgren in the House. The struggle between the Republican and Democratic parties appears to be an ideological difference on recognition and retention of value of diversity as the country's fundamental principle of immigration system, to wit, Republicans want to leave the flow of new immigrants opened to the demand of market for the high skilled foreign labor forces, while the Democrats want to preserve the decades' old value of diversity in immigration. This difference between the two parties is very fundamental and steep in that there are two different political constituent communities in this country that can determine tip of scale for power between the two parties. Since the concept of diversity will bring a fundamental and long-term print, foot-hold, and destinity for each party, the struggle transcends the difference in ideology or ethnic or emotional issues and it is not easy for the party strategists to reach a reconciliation or compromise. The fate of H.R. 3012 and other employment-based piecemeal immigration reform bills, including the upcoming STEM Jobs Act bill, vivdly reflects such struggle between the two parties behind the legislative process. Unless the leaders find a wisdom to delicately balance these differences and conflicts in interest, the country will not be able to achieve any immigration reform, no matter whether it is a piecemeal or comprehensive reform in formats. The key will lie with "compromise" that will guarantee the balance of power between the two parties. Any bills that would not guarantee such balance will be destined to fall in American political process.
To rupen86
Thank you for bringing this article to the forum's attention.It is both disheartening and frustrating. However I still feel that the momentum is finally beginning to gather for immigration reform.Please review the following article and go down to the part about HR 3012 provisions.There has been behind the scenes activity about country cap elimination ever since the Bill was received in the senate but it has been difficult to convince the chamber.This validates Sen Hutchinson's letter from before the fall recess about the Bill's bleak chances this year
http://dailycaller.com/2012/11/21/th...d-for-thought/
We will keep waiting.......
I had gone through this earlier. But the main problem as Oh Law firm pointed out is the ideological difference between democrats and republicans. The democrats seem to be giving more importance to diversity than talent. Both 3012 and STEM's goal are to replace diversity with talent. If democrats have to give in to that, they would have to get something in return. I feel that even in CIR, it would be difficult to include 3012. Increasing the quota limit from 7% to 15% would be more likely. That's what is reflected in earlier bills introduced by democrats. For our purpose, if recapture and not counting dependents are included, that would serve the purpose of removing backlogs.Quote:
Originally Posted by gs1968