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with all the factors eb2row projections vs acturals there is a delta of 30k , so if we take that out of eb3 then , is it ok to assume 10k i485 inventory avg for every year from 2008 to 2013 , which would be 60k and then most of the cases till 2009 could be approved in fy2013 quota , can we assume that eb3 row inventory for fy2014 is 40k
krishn,Quote:
Originally Posted by krishn
What you are asking is very complex IMO. I actually think it is harder than calculating EB2 numbers because there are more variables and less data.
Even deciding what the allocation is has to be something of a guess, because the overall 7% equation is at play in EB3 for Mexico and Philippines.
Netting off the EB2 approvals is also problematic. EB2 is Current for ROW and Mexico and they are affecting by other factors such as PERM processing speed and the need for retrogression in FY2012 which distorts the number of approvals in a FY versus PERM Certifications for a CY PD. Even now, CY 2013 PD PERM are still a work in progress for DOL.
My sense is that EB3-ROW cases may have dropped to about 10k per CY, although I am not very confident in that number. If EB3-C and EB3-M account for an additional 6k, then EB3-WW demand would be 16k per CY movement forward of the Cut Off Dates against an allocation of perhaps 30k for the FY.
If that were the case, Cut Off Dates have reached 01OCT12 for EB3-WW to date and probably won't move further forward this year. In all likelihood, they will retrogress.
By October 2014, that would be 2 years difference, which might translate to 32k of theoretical demand, based on the above figures. However, during FY2015, another 16k would be added to theoretical demand. In fact the theoretical numbers would be higher, since not all cases with a PD up to October 2012 have been approved. On the positive side, DOL would not have processed a lot of the PERM, let alone USCIS process I-140, so actual demand that DOS would see would be considerably less than that number.
It is also quite possible that EB3-WW numbers have continued to decline during CY2013/CY2014. There is some (rather shaky) evidence that numbers for 2010/2011 are also somewhat lower than 2008/2009.
I hope you get a sense of the difficulty.
I think I have already covered why EB3-I dates are unlikely to move much over the next 6 months in a previous post.
Q, thanks a lot. may be i got little overexcited with the calculations of actuals vs projections. But you know the bigger picture and thanks for the through explanation. This helps a lot of EB3I guys who are always looking for some numbers and direction.
when the Apr 2014 inventory is out ,
http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/gree...-485-inventory
we will get a better picture for EB3I folks.
Thanks
Thanks Spec
Q,Spec, anyone ,
what duration and how many visas does the DOS issue to USICS for EB3-ROW ? does it issue like quarterly say like 7k visas or like monthly 2.3 k visas ?
The only limit that DOS has is that no more than 27% of the total EB allocation may be used in each of the first 3 quarters.Quote:
Originally Posted by krishn
Within that, it is possible for a Category (and Countries or Groups within a Category) to receive more or less than the notional 9% of their total allocation in each of the first 9 months.
The number that EB3-ROW might receive in a given month is more likely driven by their own demand and that of other Categories.
Here's the number of Trackitt approvals per month for primary applicants for EB3-ROW:
Oct -- 47
Nov -- 22
Dec -- 24
Jan -- 13
Feb -- 55
Mar -- 65
Apr -- 15
Note the "lumpiness" of the approvals.
As I alluded to before, deciding what is the allocation available to EB3-ROW is also not simple. This year, if 150k EB visas are available, then EB3 would receive 28.6% of that number (42.9k). Theoretically, after 3k each for China, India, Mexico and Philippines are deducted, then EB3-ROW might expect 42.9 - 12.0 = 30.9k.
In reality, they will not receive that number. Because of the overall 7% law, Mexico and Philippines can use more than 7% in EB3 and still stay within the overall 7% limit. Mexico might be constrained from doing so by sharing the same Cut Off Date as ROW, but EB3-Philippines are likely to use in excess of 7k visas in EB3. That would reduce EB3-ROW allocation by at least 4k, meaning they would only have around 27k.
Here's some historical figures to illustrate the point:
-- FY --- EB3 7% -- Mexico --- Philippines --- ROW (Theory) -- ROW (Actual) -- Diff.
FY2008 --- 3,257 --- 5,325 --------- 6,154 --------- 33,804 ------- 29,884 -- (3,920)
FY2009 --- 2,803 --- 4,566 --------- 5,536 --------- 29,128 ------- 26,295 -- (2,833)
FY2010 --- 3,016 --- 7,740 --------- 3,651 --------- 31,323 ------- 24,328 -- (6,995)
FY2011 --- 2,803 --- 6,228 --------- 3,909 --------- 29,128 ------- 20,744 -- (8,384)
FY2012 --- 2,902 --- 3,748 --------- 6,479 --------- 30,148 ------- 23,691 -- (6,457)
FY2013 --- 3,172 --- 3,237 --------- 5,636 --------- 32,931 ------- 23,822 -- (9,109)
Total FY2008 - FY2013 ------------------------------------------------------ (37,698)
Average --------------------------------------------------------------------- (6,283)
The difference for FY2013 reduces to about 4k once Fall Across to EB3-I of 5k is deducted.
Thanks spec , I was trying to get an idea here of how many EB3ROW visas could be used and available for the FY2014.
off of the 30k they could have allocated/issued 20k till june and roughly around 9k for the last quarter months of july,august,sept.
heres how the EB3ROW dates progressed :
march-2013 01MAY07
april-2013 01JUL07
may-2013 01DEC07
june-2013 01SEP08
july-2013 01JAN09
august-2013 01JAN09
september-2013 01JUL10
october-2013 01JUL10
november-2013 01OCT10
december-2013 01OCT11
january-2014 01APR12
Here are the inventory numbers as of 1oct2013 and as of jan2014 , can we assume like they could have allocated 8k for EB3ROW ?
http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/f...er_01-2013.pdf
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Total
January 9 1 6 4 5 13 8 31 57 365 255 168 922
February 2 3 8 7 9 20 10 36 68 324 233 112 832
March 1 29 8 5 15 47 26 78 352 240 138 939
April 1 2 287 13 5 11 2 33 87 335 250 129 1,155
May 1 1 8 4 10 13 27 144 370 198 105 881
June 2 5 9 18 16 5 31 124 375 244 160 989
July 2 7 3 13 11 6 39 246 334 253 914
August 2 1 2 11 4 11 11 12 49 244 317 172 836
September 1 5 9 10 12 29 26 232 2,168 174 2,666
October 4 6 7 11 18 16 62 238 1,158 164 1,684
November 2 2 2 3 10 11 15 25 60 232 359 127 848
December 3 1 6 4 7 5 11 32 59 370 433 159 1,090
Total 9 17 4 21 379 85 113 166 192 479 2,120 6,890 2,469 812 0 0 0 13,756
http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/f...y-2014-Jan.pdf
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Total
January 9 1 14 4 5 10 6 29 53 192 446 281 152 1,698 2,900
February 5 1 21 9 8 16 11 32 52 189 399 211 168 9 1,131
March 1 46 10 3 21 43 25 44 236 458 260 154 8 1,309
April 311 10 11 13 2 32 71 211 434 223 109 1,427
May 2 1 1 6 7 7 12 18 90 202 371 218 112 1,047
June 2 1 4 6 13 19 15 5 31 104 233 403 241 115 1,192
July 2 7 4 11 10 5 37 149 197 404 179 124 1,129
August 1 1 9 4 13 16 9 35 141 204 288 209 142 1,072
September 1 1 6 8 7 9 24 22 117 207 352 275 109 1,138
October 2 3 4 5 12 16 15 45 101 249 285 159 3 899
November 3 5 2 1 6 9 16 20 35 137 222 243 108 6 813
December 4 1 7 4 5 7 11 34 51 224 267 279 129 6 1,029
Total 13 24 4 20 435 85 112 165 174 392 1,283 2,609 4,362 2,493 1,200 1,715 0 0 15,086
krishn,Quote:
Originally Posted by krishn
You might be interested in the comparison of Trackitt approvals for FY2011 to FY2014 to date for EB3-ROW.
It's certainly not an exact science, but might give you some thoughts about numbers.
Personally, I believe the number is already in excess of 20k, which is why likely retrogression in the near future has been mentioned in the latest comments from CO.
--------------------------------------------- 2008 ---- 2009 ---- 2010 ---- 2011 ---- 2012 ---- 2013 ---- Total
PERM ROW ---------------------------------- 30,138 -- 19,047 -- 15,819 -- 17,258 -- 19,368 --- 8,589 -- 110,219
Actual EB2 Row Approvals per DOS ---------- 42,588 -- 28,612 -- 23,158 -- 28,613 -- 20,756 -- 34,849 -- 178,576
eb2row perm =Actual EB2 row approvals/2.2 - 19,358 -- 13,005 -- 10,526 -- 13,005 --- 9,434 -- 15,840 --- 81,170
Since EB2 is current from 2008 , assuming a perm filed in one year approves in next year
from 2009 to 2013 total ROW perm is is 80K
from 2010 to 2013 total eb2 actual approvals is 49k
so probably from 2009 to 2013 the eb3row pending perm could be 31k
==========
from 2010 to 2012 total ROW perm is 52K
from 2011 to 2013 eb2 approval is 38K
so probably eb3 row perm between 2010 and 2012 is 14k
==========
from 2010 to 2013 total perm is 61K
from 2011 to 2013 eb2 approval is 38K
so probably eb3 row perm between 2010 and 2013 - 23k
=========
2009 - 2012 row perm - 71 k
2010 - 2013 eb2 approval perm - 48k
2009 - 2012 eb3ROW could be - 22k
krishn,
I see different EB2-ROW approval figures from DOS to the one's in your post.
For example FY2013:
Total EB2 --------- 63,461
Less China ------- ( 3,627)
Less India ------- (17,193)
Less Mexico ------ ( 1,717)
Less Philippines - ( 4,439)
Total EB2-ROW ----- 36,485
--------------------------------------------- 2008 ---- 2009 ---- 2010 ---- 2011 ---- 2012 ---- 2013 ---- Total
krishn EB2 Row Approvals per DOS ---------- 42,588 -- 28,612 -- 23,158 -- 28,613 -- 20,756 -- 34,849 -- 178,576
Spec EB2 Row Approvals per DOS ------------ 44,934 -- 30,093 -- 24,427 -- 30,161 -- 21,778 -- 36,485 -- 187,878
The difference isn't huge, but I do like to understand the source of the data
Spec - On a different note - have you ever observed that USCIS and DOS published numbers are not quite same. Quite often they are different.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I have taken out the china-taiwan ,
EB2 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
China-mainland 6,955 3,045 6,505 8,257 5,858 3,627
china-Taiwan 2,346 1,481 1,269 1,548 1,022 1,636
india 14,806 10,106 19,961 23,997 19,726 17,193
philipines 2,057 1,850 2,162 3,242 2,408 4,439
mexico 1,347 922 817 1,147 823 1,717
eb2 total 70,099 46,016 53,872 66,804 50,593 63,461
row 42,588 28,612 23,158 28,613 20,756 34,849
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
It was the first thing I noticed when I first saw the DHS figures. I would say they are always slightly different, although generally not by much.
It doesn't surprise me. Two government departments that don't share information across common systems and don't want to.
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
PERM ROW 30138 19047 15819 17258 19368 8589
row 44934 30093 24427 30161 21778 36485
eb2row perm =eb2row actual approvals / 2.2 20425 13679 11103 13710 9899 16584
Since EB2 is current from 2008 , assuming a perm filed in one year approves in next year
from 2009 to 2013 total ROW perm is is 80K
from 2010 to 2013 total eb2 actual approvals is 51k
so probably from 2009 to 2013 the eb3row pending perm could be 29k
==========
from 2010 to 2012 total ROW perm is 52K
from 2011 to 2013 eb2 approval is 40K
so probably eb3 row perm between 2010 and 2012 is 12k
==========
from 2010 to 2013 total perm is 61K
from 2011 to 2013 eb2 approval is 40K
so probably eb3 row perm between 2010 and 2013 - 21k
=========
2009 - 2012 row perm - 71 k
2010 - 2013 eb2 approval perm - 51k
2009 - 2012 eb3ROW perms could be - 20k
========
2008-2012 row perm - 101k
2009-2013 eb2 perm approval - 65k
2008-2012 eb3row perms could be -36k
==========
2008-2013 row perm -- 110k
2009-2013 eb2 approval perm -- 65k
2008-2013 eb3row perm -- 45k
=========
2008-2013 row perm -- 110k
2008-2013 eb2 approval perm -- 85k
2008-2013 eb3 row perm -- 25k
========
looks like from the uscis i485 inventory they have got past 2009 by Jan inventory report. are we looking at the max 21k perm eb3 applications converting to 485's. ?
isnt the perm running like an year behind and it takes like 6 months to process 485 (background checks etc) ?
probably shouldnt we consider 20k perm eb3 would be converting over to i485 from jan'14 to august'14 this year
it looks like with the huge eb2 row approvals vs perm row, there could be lot less eb3 row apps from 2010 than anyone would have thot and it would take sometime for uscis to get those 485s done.
A couple of points to ponder.Quote:
Originally Posted by krishn
a) Not all EB2 require a PERM. Historically, around 20% of EB2-ROW approvals appear to be NIW cases. Schedule A does not require PERM either, but I have no idea how many they represent.
b) The latest Cut Off Date EB3-ROW has reached is 01OCT12. DOL has passed that date for processing both Regular and Audit cases.
As of 04/04/2013 DOL were processing Sept 9, 2013 Regular cases and Jan 31, 2013 Audit Cases.
DOL were processing October 2012 Regular cases in January 2013 and Audit cases in December 2013.
Apart from a few delayed Audit decisions due to SR, the only additions now should be from be from Appeals at BALCA.
Dear Friends
I just learnt today that somebody i knew from work died over the weekend. While the relationship was work related the person was extremely intelligent and very honest one. I just feel sad that when he called on Thursday I was busy and couldn't talk to him.
That's what life is. We never know if this is our last conversation. This GC as well as career at some level is much less important than people around us. Just a small perspective that I reaffirmed my faith in today. I don't mean to start the week on a gloomy note. But I thought I at least owed this note in honor of this extremely bright and equally honest guy.
Regards,
Q
Q,
I am very sorry to here that news. You clearly thought sufficient of the person to to mention them.
I completely agree with your philosophy - it's a shame that such events serve to remind us about it.
I am sorry for the loss. what was the reason for the sudden demise ?Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Hope he rests in peace.
here are some more numbers to consider,
year----------------------------------------- --2008 --2009 --2010 --2011 --2012 --2013
PERM ROW----------------------------------- --30138 --19047 --15819 --17258 --19368 --8589
eb2row actual approvals / 2.2 ---------------- --22467 --15047 --12214 --15081 --10889 --18243
set 20% for niw etc -------------------------- --17974 --12038 --9771 --12065 --8711 --14594
EB3 Perm guesstimate (prior year - this year) ---na- --18100 --9276 --3754 --8547 --4774
spec, doesn't schedule A , goes into eb3 and not eb2 ? eb2 requirements on usicis doesnt say schedule A but eb3 does mention it.
Thanks Spec and Krishn. He died of brain hemorrhage.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Quote:
Originally Posted by krishn
Schedule A occupations do not necessarily have to apply under EB3, but the majority probably would.Quote:
Originally Posted by krishn
A Nurse Practitioner would likely come under EB2, but it is still a Schedule A occupation.
For EB2, other than Philippines, it probably is not much of a consideration.
Thanks Spec for the quick analysis. Look forward to detailed analysis.
I am trying to tie EB3ROW inventory to what the CO said in the visa bulletin. The inventory for EB3ROW is 13K, does CO mean that it is sufficient for this year ? or is he saying we are finished with EB3ROW quota for the year, which I highly suspect. If the former is right, then EB3I should expect a huge spillover next year since there is hardly 5-8K EB3ROW demand for 2013 and 2014. Please enlighten.
P.S.: I am not EB3I
I am not an expert but I will share my thoughts. If the quota for EB3Row is used up for this year, it should be 'U' -unavailable. It cannot have a cut off date. I am assuming that they are going to clear all the cases till Marchl 2011 by the end of this FY. Next year will be interesting. My PD is july 2006. I am eagerly waiting for some spillover.Quote:
Originally Posted by redwood
Thanks
Amul
the april'14 inventory is 13k for eb3 row. Will this have any impact on the eb3 I ?
will eb3I advance like last year ?
Guru's please correct me if my thinking is wrong.Quote:
Originally Posted by amulchandra
heard mentioning that they have 7% quota and visas are issued like more like quarterly basis or monthly basis , so when the dos sees uscis asking for more visas for a category then CO sees like more demand than available and establishes cutoff date for that quarter. so EB3 row may have finished up its may/june/july quota.
please correct me if am wrong.
Amul, am hoping there will be huge spill to eb3I over next year. (or perhaps this year end (aug/sept/oct'14) to save eb3row visa wastage.) By looking at the perm filing numbers, eb2 approvals and 485 inventory/processing times.
good luck
In my opinion no.Quote:
Originally Posted by krishn
EB3-ROW have sufficient cases to reach their allocation within the new COD of 01APR11. That means no Fall Across within EB3 to EB3-I this year.
Also, remember that the USCIS Inventory only represents AOS cases. ROW have around 15% CP cases, so the 13.1k in the USCIS Inventory might represent 15.4k total cases as of April 1, 2014.
Extrapolating to today, cases before April 2011 look to be more than the remaining allocation I believe they have left.
Generally, that is true, but there is considerable latitude in how individual Categories and groups are handled within the overall 27% per quarter limit.Quote:
Originally Posted by krishn
CO mentioned in October that, this year, as much as possible, he was going to "front load" movement (and therefore potentially approvals) and retrogress later if necessary. With essentially no EB2-I since November and low EB2-ROW approvals all year, he has had plenty of visas to play with within the overall 27% per quarter limit for EB3 use.
Quote:
On a more general level, Mr. Oppenheim shared that his goal is to advance the cutoff dates more at the beginning of the fiscal year (October, November and December, and January visa bulletins) and then, as he is able to gauge demand for a particular preference category, adjust accordingly by either slowing down or retrogressing (if demand is high) or advancing even more (is demand turns out to be low).
eb3I inventory for next 6 months from current PD as reported by uscis over the time:
EB3I jan-2011 jan-2013 Apr-2013 july-2013 oct-2013 jan-2014 Apr-2014 possible
2003 Oct 1210 985 942 899 877 865 951 865
2003 Nov 1161 917 873 850 823 813 797 797
2003 Dec 1185 1010 952 899 885 1304 848 848
2004 Jan 1000 850 813 772 753 924 725 725
2004 Feb 928 769 724 696 1109 682 663 663
2004Mar 1301 1010 959 923 1437 873 854 854
Total 6785 5541 5263 5039 5884 5461 4838 4752
the 'possible' column is the lowest number from the earlier inventories reported. These next six months were never current after july 2k7 , so there is no possibility of new 485 filings. But they could only decrease because of porting etc.
And also I think in the pending inventory possibly 10% could be abandoned/R2I ones.
I found this nugget at mitbbs.com http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/32107949.html
My take on this is that the retrogression announced in the June 2014 VB for EB3-C went into effect immediately on the VB publication date.Quote:
There is a news yet to be confirmed that a Senator's office obtained information from USCIS that Texas Service Center has internally stopped processing EB3 China I-485 applications after May 9. This rumor is supported by zero statistics from online forums that normally report 5 to 15 approvals in the EB3 China category every day.
However, the visa bulletin from Department of State is meant to encourage USCIS to continue processing EB3 China I-485 applications. Could you reach out to your USCIS contact and verify whether Texas Service Center really made such an internal decision? If the answer is yes, could you challenge on what grounds they are allowed to do so? Such an internal decision will hurt hundreds of EB3 China petitioners who have legitimate right to receive their green cards in May 2014 before the visa bulletin retrogress in June.
I think that has happened because there are none to few visas left for EB3-C this year. A 6 year retrogression is as good as being made Unavailable.
Similarly, CO said retrogression for EB2-I to the December 2013 VB Cut Off Dates took place on November 20, 2013 due to excessive visa use.
I agree w you Spec. Dates being current is no guarantee of a green card. The visa numbers need to be there. If EB3C has already exhausted country quota then it doesn't matter if the dates are current.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
CO gave quite a clever answer when asked by the Chinese about the rumour. http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/32102179.html
BasicallyQuote:
Question:
A rumor says your office just released a memo to have EB3C 'U' this morning?
It's actually from an immigration officer of senator's office.
Oppenheim, Charlie W
They are wrong I have not, and will not issue such a memo. USCIS is able to receive and process and submit cases which have a priority date which is within the cut-off dates announced in either the May or June Visa Bulletins.
a) USCIS will continue to accept cases within the Cut Off Date in the relevant VB.
b) USCIS will continue to process cases received within the Cut Off Date.
c) USCIS will continue to submit visa requests to DOS as cases are adjudicated.
He carefully did not say that cases with a PD of 01OCT06 up to 01OCT12 would continue to receive approvals. (c) is not the same as saying DOS have any visas left for allocation when USCIS request them at the end of the adjudication process. The cases would just become pre-adjudicated.
From the DOS side, they had already pre-allocated the visa numbers for the May VB that were using Consular Processing, so immediate retrogression as far as issuing visas does not affect them.
CO answered the actual question asked, which was not quite the one that people think was asked.
As you say, a Cut Off Date being current does not guarantee approval, since it also requires a visa number to be available.
The Chinese do not seem (or want) to understand that.
I do think it does say something about the number of Chinese who downgraded from EB2 to EB3.
Great Post Spec !
I do not however want to ignore your earlier point about the Armageddon scenario for EB2I. It is a very real possibility and hence I have started looking at EB3ROW as a source for spillover to EB3I (and EB2I, similar to EBC).
Have you looked at such a scenario and what does your analysis say based on limited data (current EB3ROW inventory data and assuming we have 3-5K EB3ROW PERMs annually) ?
As per my analysis, I'm seeing a bright future for EB3-I from next year onwards and it will perform better that EB2-I. We will surely see the scenario like EB3-C in very near future.Quote:
Originally Posted by redwood
Here are my predictions:
By the end FY14, EB3-I PDs could not move beyond mid Dec'03 but by mid FY15 EB3-ROW will become current and it will be in current from there on.
By the end of FY15 we will see EB3-I getting spillovers like 10k+ mainly from EB3-ROW and there on for every year in future we can see spillovers for EB3-I like what we are seeing in EB2-I currently.
In FY16 we might get a chance to see the scenario of downward porting like the current EB3-C.
This might be a little over stretched / bold prediction but this is what I'm seeing with the available data/trends.
I might be ignoring the EB3-Phil CP demand here but still I believe this is what will happen in next 2 years for EB3-I irrespective of EB1 & EB2 effects.
Sorry, this is NOT a wishful thinking but is my own feeling based on all the past and current publicly available data from all the govt. agencies on EB Immigration.Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
I'm only comparing the downward porting phenomenon and NOT how EB3-C came to that situation.Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
I can only say that this is NOT completely TRUE to defend my predictions are NOT completely FALSE.Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
Let me take the nearest prediction for now (and deal with other ones later as we will discuss this in coming months) i.e. EB3-ROW becoming current in mid of FY15. This is certainly a basis for the overall predictions for EB3-I.Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
Let's take the time-period from Apr'13 to Mar'14:
1) EB3-ROW moved from Jul'07 to Oct'12 (approx. 5 years movement)
2) Overall I-485 pre-adjudicated case down from 95K to 65K (these 65k might be just EB2-I & EB3-I only)
3) Overall I-485 Pending cases jumped from 45k to 80k (this 80k will further reduce in second half of FY'14)
4) No spikes in I-485 receipts or completions
5) No significant rise in I-485 EB3-ROW Inventory
My point here is instead of 5 yrs forwarded movement for a prolonged period of 1 year there is no significant inventory built-up and on top of it we saw 5k+ spillover to EB3-I.
Let's predict the period from Apr'14 to Mar'15:
1) We saw retrogression in PDs from Oct'12 to Apr'11 but there is no indication of EB3-ROW PD becoming Unavailable before Sep'14.
2) from above I strongly believe retrogression is a temporary and its due to anticipation of reaching the annual quota seeing the existing pending applications.
3) After Oct'14 the dates start move forward but this time we don't have 5 years of PDs to move and hence it will become current at certain time. The PERM approvals only tell us when will this happen will it happen in Q2 or Q3 of FY'15, but certainly it has to become current in FY15 and it will stay on current thereafter.