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Answer: Post 2007 porting.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Edit: Just saw YT's answer and realized that we also need to add the NVC approvals. Q, some time back, you had showed that EB2-I had a large pending NVC demand and the number was in the ~5K range up to 2009 itself.
VISA BULLETIN PROJECTIONS FOR 2015...
India EB-2. Mr. Oppenheim suggests that India EB-2 may slightly progress in the first-half of 2015. Historically the Visa Office has waited until the summer to advance the India EB-2 date.
http://blogs.ilw.com/entry.php?8395-...IONS-FOR-2015&
This could also mean June 2015.
Read the last paragraph from the link.Quote:
Originally Posted by bikenlalan
"President Obama’s Recent Executive Action. The Visa Office reminds users that the President’s Executive Action is not expected to have any impact on the Visa Bulletin. While the Executive Action suggests that Adjustment of Status applications will be able to be filed much earlier in the green card process, these “pre-filings” will not impact the priority dates."
I think everybody knew and expected from this EO that people will be allowed to file for I-485 even when dates are not current. But bigger question is when will it be implemented? If this is going to take more than a year, than it would be not much helpful for people between May, 2010 to early 2011 since they will most likely be able to file for EAD next year anyways if dates advance.
In reality, they don't even need an executive action for letting people who are not current, file for I-485. All that USCIS needs to do is to make PD current for retrogressed countries for 1-2 months and people will be able to file I-485 and get EAD/AP . After that, they can retrogress it or make it unavailable.
Anyways, some relief is better than no relief. But I still wish that President should have given at least some specific timeline in the EO for legals as well. Instead of that, all we got was some feel good text and a tall promise asking the USCIS and DHS to streamline the legal immigration system. It will probably happen also, but we just don't know when.
Our only hopes are 1) USCIS/DHS starts implementing these reforms quickly which will not happen for sure as it is going to take a long time. or 2) New Congress with GOP majority in House and Senate passes some kind of commonsense (not Comprehensive) immigration reform early next year that would satisfy politicians on both sides and President as well so he doesn't veto it. The chances of this happening is zilch, zero, none, nil, ille. In fact, GOP is planning to stop further funding of DHS (current funding ends in February) so as to stop DHS from implementing EO on immigration (USCIS is funded by all of us so no issue of funding there). There is no way they are going to pass anything on immigration. Somehow, if they manage to pass something for legal immigration, either Democrats will not support it (so it won't pass) or President will veto it if the bill doesn't include illegals.
So I don't expect any action on immigration at least till 2017 since 2016 is an election year and no one will touch a political hot potato named immigration. And if we get a Republican President in 2017, then we should just say bye bye to CIR although ironically, that may actually increase the chances to have something passed for legal immigrants.
Yep, I don't expect anything will happen until after 2016 election. Everyday it looks more and more like backlogs will remain till people just get tired and demand drops.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jonty Rhodes
What Obama "did" for addressing legal immigration is that he told DHS and USCIS to look busy.
The new congress doesn't seem interested in tackling immigration. Mitch McConnell has said his first order of business when he heads senate will be Keystone pipeline vote. Obama has said he will veto the bill if it comes to his desk. Under such atmosphere I don't think immigration reform can happen.
Very well said. There is no chance this is happening anytime in 2015/16.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jonty Rhodes
Thinking about the H-4 EAD rule, there were talks about it since early 2013. And we are already at the end of 2014 (supposed to be published this month) and we are yet waiting. Imagine when this will see the light of day.
Sure, they do not need EO to implement this and make everyone current for at least couple of months. This is how they are going to delay it and Obama does not look bad (atleast he is doing something about the legals)
You know the worst part for legal immigrants like us is that we have to make a choice between Democrats (bad - in the sense of doing nothing for legals till illegals are included) vs Republicans (worst - perceived as totally anti-immigrants) when it comes to getting something done for legal immigration and we get screwed by both sides. When President Obama got elected in 2008, he had majority (he was one short of a supermajority in reality, but had it on paper) in both House and Senate. His 2008 pre-election promise was to address Immigration issues in his first term and make it a priority. Even after being elected and sworn in as a President, there was lot of talk about Immigration Reform. For some unknown reason, the discussion fell silent over few months and completely deviated towards Affordable Care Act. If Democrats and President really wanted to do immigration reform than they would have known better that immigration reform is way more controversial than Affordable Care Act and will be very difficult to pass without majority. But for some reason, they decided to sideline it, make Affordable Care Act their priority and decided to put all their efforts behind it. Now, we can debate about ACA vs CIR forever but that's not the point.Quote:
Originally Posted by bikenlalan
The point is, Democrats had a choice when they had majority - CIR (extremely controversial as it prevented people who broke the law intentionally or unintentionally from deportation there by bending law of the land) vs ACA (again very controversial but little less than CIR, which forced people to buy insurance and forced insurance to cover people with pre-existing conditions). In my opinion, CIR should had been taken up in first term when they had majority. I am not saying this because I am stuck in backlog. I filed my GC in 2011 so CIR in 2008-09 would not have concerned me.
But who knows, what the reality is. May be the Democrats did not take up CIR because they may have wanted to keep the carrot of immigration dangling to Hispanics and just make superficial changes in policy, so as to keep the Hispanic hope alive in order to get their votes election after elections. While Republicans can keep pandering to their vote base to keep their vote share intact.
Anyways, this is my last one on the topic as this is not an appropriate forum to discuss it. Please feel free to remove the post.
see Murthy post. There may be good news soon
EB2 India: Potential for Advancement
The EB2 India cutoff date retrogressed to February 15, 2005 in November 2014, and has remained stagnant since. The DOS previously projected that this cutoff date would not move forward before June or July 2015. However, the DOS is now considering whether to advance the cutoff date earlier in the fiscal year. No information is provided regarding when, exactly, this may occur, nor is there any indication yet regarding how far the dates will advance. MurthyDotCom will closely track this development.
The EO had some language around "issuing all visas allocated by Congress" which gave us hope for re-capture. Given this new statement, does that mean re-capture is out of question?Quote:
Originally Posted by Jonty Rhodes
So lets talk about any possible movement in VB dates by DOS.
There are two ways DOS moves dates:
1. Purely to build future demand. (In other words quickly move dates forward - accept as many 485s it can and then move dates backward).
2. To actually allocate visas based on visa availability.
If there are any reports out there - including directly from Dept of State - that say they will move dates forward - they are going to fall in either of these two categories.
If it is going to be #1 - then we should expect the dates to move beyond May 2010 which is where the dates were last for EB2I.
If it is going to be #2 - then we should expect a movement of a couple of years max because #2 movement will meant DOS overshot the retrogression and took it too far back and now want to bring it to a level where it can utilize teh monthly EB2I quota.
If you ask me - my guess would be the movement will be #2 (no pun intended!).
p.s. - I also can't possibly think why EO would have any effect on dates movement unless EO somehow makes extra visas available. So far - I haven't come across anything that indicates to visa availability either through recapture or doing away with dependents being counted towards EB quota.
So for now - people shouldn't stay too hopeful about any possible date movement other than just a correction by DOS for any overshooting.
Its been a while since I posted here. Started a new job and got a vacation as a perk for taking the offer :)
I agree with Q - nothing in the EO has anything to do with date movement. I do think that 485 application prior to dates being current will happen. Not sure when but it will happen.
to be released tomorrow:
https://s3.amazonaws.com/public-insp...2014-30641.pdf
look at pages 7 & 8
Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
What is that link geterdone? I am unable to open it. It says Webpage Not Available.
Quote:
Originally Posted by geterdone
try this:Quote:
Originally Posted by CleanSock
https://www.federalregister.gov/arti...gration-policy
The 16th point is interesting, talking about recapture.Quote:
Originally Posted by geterdone
Wishing all the forum members and their families a Very Happy New Year!
For some comedy on New Year's eve, here's a video of Stephen Colbert talking about immigrants in Congress and blasting Sen. King in his own way
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ewPburLEZyY
A Very Happy New Year to all!
Q ,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
When you say 2 years are you saying 2 years from Feb 2005 to Feb 2007 , OR is it somewhere close to Feb 2009.
Happy New Year to everybody.
Here are the unofficial PERM figures for Q1 FY2015 compiled from dolstats and permchecker. I have also shown the corresponding Q1 FY2014 figures for reference.
PERM approvals rose from Q2 FY2014 onwards last FY.
Group ------- No. -- Q1 FY2014
China ----- 1,431 -------- 641
India ----- 9,220 ------ 5,076
Mexico ------ 295 -------- 281
Philippines - 316 -------- 210
ROW ------- 4,947 ------ 2,856
Total ---- 16,209 ------ 9,064
I meant - if there is any movement this quarter it will be an adjustment and hence should be relative to where dates arectoday ie from feb 2005 to couple years forward - if that.
Quote:
Originally Posted by arnab221
Happy new year all!Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Spec- thanks for those numbers.
Looking at the rate the PERM numbers are growing, it appears that Spec's worst case scenario may be in play this year.
Impact of proposed DHS funding cut on EAD/AP renewals:
Gurus,
The Republicans are proposing to cut funding (or not renew) for DHS when it runs out in late Feb. What would the impact be on EAD/AP renewals in the scenario? Will it also impact visa stamping schedules?
Please move this to an appropriate thread if this is out of place.
link pleaseQuote:
Originally Posted by tenyearsgone
I apologize in advance if the answer for this question has been implied or directly answered already but my PD is sept 1st week 2009. if we consider the worst case, do I need to wait until 2016 for a green card or will I get it sometime during 2015? I want to be out of this company asap and would like to take a chance and move on with another job while on EAD (even though its risky considering my job profile) even if there is 10% chance that I wont get greened this year.
I don't think EAD or AP renewals should be affected at all because they are done by USCIS. USCIS is user funded, and does not rely on Federal Government to fund it. So even in case of shutdown, USCIS will be working. (only 10% of USCIS workforce was affected during shutdown last year)Quote:
Originally Posted by tenyearsgone
I am not sure about visa stamping because that may require involvement of DHS at some level for security clearance.
DHS is funded right now through February but even if DHS funding is frozen by GOP somehow, it would not stop majority of the DHS employees from work because during last year's 16 day shutdown, 85% of DHS employees continued to work because they were funded with mandatory funds or deemed essential to national security and public safety. Only 15% employees were affected during that shut down.
Now, clearance and granting of visa to an individual may come under national security and hence may not be impacted. If it doesn't then it may be impacted but chances are that it won't.
It is also possible that President may announce that all DHS employee are essential to national security and public safety. If that happens, then DHS would be working regularly even with frozen funding and once the funding issue resolves, President may just pay those employee at once. This is what exactly happened with those 85% of employees last time. They continued to work during shutdown without pay and got paid at once after the shutdown was over.
The best way for GOP is to pass small piecemeal immigration bills and take some action. That is the only way to stop what they call "Total Executive Amnesty" and get some rules and regulations that they desire. No action is not a good choice for them. Lets see what they do. Also, watch out for that law suit where 24 states have sued and have gone to court against this Executive Order.
Thanks Jonty for the answer. One can only hope that legal immigration won't get further hampered by the Executive Order and the reactions to it.
@suninphx: The question was based on this post:
The link in question: http://www.mycentraloregon.com/2015/...e-in-new-year/
One: it is usually not a good idea to delay career advancement or let go of opportunities because of GC process. Two: it is likely that you will be greened in late summer 2009. It is NOT a certainty. Whether the probability is > 90%: well, there are worst case scenarios moving around, there are always folks whose PD is current but they do not get greened, there are possibilities of RFEs for myriad of things. All in all, I would say that there surely is at least 10% chance that you (and I in fact) will not get GC in FY2015.
Quote:
Originally Posted by vckomara
Apologies for asking this question in wrong forum, Please move it to appropriate place after it's answered.
I have been working for the same employer that sponsored my green card(AOS pending with PD 03/02/2010), recently i found that our office lease is expiring and management is planning to move our office to a different place. New place would be about 4-5 miles from current office but in a different county , different city, different ZIP code and same state.
Is my labor certification and I140 are still good with new office address? Is there anything that i got to do in this situation like AC21?
http://travel.state.gov/content/visa...uary-2015.html
Employment- Based WW CHINA INDIA MEXICO PHILIPPINES 1st C C C C C 2nd C 15-Mar-10 1-Sep-05 C C 3rd 1-Jan-14 1-Sep-11 22-Dec-03 1-Jan-14 1-Jan-14 Other Workers 1-Jan-14 15-Aug-05 22-Dec-03 1-Jan-14 1-Jan-14 4th C C C C C Certain Religious Workers C C C C C 5th C C C C C
EMPLOYMENT-based categories (potential monthly movement)
Employment First: Current
Employment Second:
Worldwide: Current
China: Three to six weeks
India: Four to six months
Employment Third:
Worldwide: Rapid forward movement for at least another month or two. The rapid movement in recent months should generate a significant amount of demand for numbers. Once such demand materializes at the anticipated rate it will have a direct impact on this cut-off date.
China: Rapid forward movement. Such movement is likely to result
in a dramatic increase in demand which could require
"corrective" action within the next six months.
India: Up to two weeks
Mexico: Will remain at the worldwide date
Philippines: Will remain at the worldwide date. Increased demand may
require "corrective" action at some point later in the
fiscal year.
Employment Fourth: Current
Employment Fifth: Current - for most countries. The expected increase in
China-mainland born demand would require the
establishment of a cut-off date for such applicants
no later than the summer months.
The category will remain "Current" for all other countries
for the foreseeable future.
What is this four to six months movement predicted for EB2I all about? Does that mean by the end of FY15?
Quote:
Originally Posted by surya1975
Very clearly says that this is monthly movement, and only until May...
This estimate is unlikely to include spillover related movement, during Q4
From the bulletinQuote:
Originally Posted by CleanSock
Quote:
EMPLOYMENT-based categories (potential monthly movement)
I'm pretty sure it won't have an impact. If you can change jobs to a different company, staying in the same company a few miles away shouldn't matter.Quote:
Originally Posted by bluelabel
Perhaps Kanmani or Spec can weigh in.
AILA has reported after talk with Mr. Oppenheim of the State Department that unlike previous years, EB-2 India visa numbers may move up from four to six months or even faster, but may not go beyond summer of 2009. Apparently, this is determined by the two factors. One is active implementation of Obama's immigration actions beginning May 2015 affected visa demand changes and the other is inscreasing rate of convering from EB-3 to EB-2 by Indians. Frustrating news in a way for the late starter Indian EB-2 professionals.
Obviously, passage of H.R. 213 of 2015 sponsored by Rep. Jason Chavetz removing per country limit for employment-based immigration will change this prediction, but fate of this bill is questionable at the best.
http://immigration-law.com/
sounds rather silly, when just a week ago they reported that the actions will have no impact on the visa bulletin
no reason for obama's actions to have any impact on EB visa demand
porting very well could be an issue of course
Does this also mean that since they will be doing movements in a methodical way, dates wont go back to stone ages once the FY gets done?Quote:
Originally Posted by transformer123
Ron Gotcher has posted the text of the AILA release.Quote:
Originally Posted by transformer123
There is no mention of the implementation of Obama's immigration actions at all. Oh seems to have made that up.Quote:
AILA posted this update from their conference with Charlie Oppenheim this month, regarding India EB2 movement:
"EB-2 India. EB-2 India is expected to advance at a minimum, 4 to 6 months in the coming months and more significant advances should be expected through May. During FY 2013, EB-2 India advanced to June 2008, and then retrogressed almost four years during the first quarter of FY 2014. EB-2 India did not advance again until the summer months, eventually reaching May 2009 in September before retrogressing again in November. Although the decision has been made to start advancing the cut-off date at this time, it is possible EB-2 India may only advance into the summer of 2009 by September. Charlie anticipates that as a result of greater/earlier demand for EB-2 numbers due to EB-3 India applicants "upgrading," there will be less "end of year" movement than in past years."
A 4 to 6 month periodic movement is poison pill for original EB2I filers. I don't get why the DOS is suddenly doing it this way. This guarantees that the dates will not see much advance beyond May 2009 at all, since porting will consume a majority of spillover throughout the year as the date keeps advancing.
4-6 months movement means Originally DOS overshot when they retrogressed. So this is nothing but a correction.Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
The worst case scenario of PD not moving more than just a few months seems to be in play. All releases hint at PD not passing the summer of 2009.
Man this sucks! I need ~3.5 months movement; and even that is not a sure shot this year.
Based on Ron's posting, the dates may move into summer of 2009. Summer starts on 21 June and ends late September. So shouldn't you be current then?Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
Or does the post mean that dates will not go beyond 21 June?