Makes sense. Thanks for this info.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
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Makes sense. Thanks for this info.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Here's my understanding.Quote:
Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000
The AFM clearly says that interfiling can only be completed when the PD for EB2 is Current.
As far as I am aware, the only means for USCIS to update DOS is by requesting a visa for the case through the IVAMS system (Immigrant Visa Allocation Management System).
If the PD is Current the visa is issued immediately, otherwise it is added to the Demand Data.
When people send their interfiling letters, USCIS can consolidate the A-file with all the information.
If the PD for EB2 is not Current for the case, USCIS cannot complete the interfiling and request a visa.
Therefore it is difficult to see how these cases can be part of the Demand Data.
In contrast, a normal (non porting) EB2 can only have an I-485 if the date was current at some time, no interfiling is involved and the visa request can be made when it is pre-adjudicated.
Unless, USCIS and DOS have some other communication method, which seems unlikely given CO has said he doesn't know how much "upgrading" there is, then it is difficult to see how the cases with a PD of 01SEP04 or later that became ready to interfile since EB2-I became Unavailable in June 2012 can be included in the Demand Data.
Thanks Spec - I see the light now. So a couple of more questions -Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
1. So this means the increase in DD that we have seen pre 2007 is all cause of interfilings completed for pre sept 2004 requests right?
2. Can DOS assign more visas than allowed per month? As you are saying they approved 900 applications - can they assign more than 250 visa numbers?
3. If the numbers you are talking about are true then actually EB2I will be U next quarter as 2800 will be filled up quickly only by pre sept 2004 numbers.
4. Do you think we will see less numbers pre sept 2004 as USCIS works through what would have been essentially last fiscal's approvals
Answers in-line.Quote:
Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000
I thought it might be useful to occasionally post the Trackitt approvals by PD as both EB2-I and EB2-WW go through a period following retrogression.
Since EB2-P and EB2-M data is not very reliable, I have only shown EB2-ROW data.
The figures include EB2-NIW.
EB2-ROW
PD -------- 2007 -- 2008 -- 2009 -- 2010 -- 2011 -- 2012 -- Total
October ------ 3 ----- 1 ----- 3 ----- 3 --- 58 ------ 0 ----- 68
November ----- 2 ----- 2 ----- 2 ----- 4 --- 11 ----- 39 ----- 60
Total -------- 5 ----- 3 ----- 5 ----- 7 --- 69 ----- 39 ---- 128
About a further 150 EB2-ROW cases and 50 EB2-NIW-ROW cases with PD of 2011 or 2012 remain pending on Trackitt. Not all will ever be updated. Nonetheless, the number is substantial.
EB2-I
PD -------- 2001 -- 2002 -- 2003 -- 2004 -- Total
October ------ 2 ----- 2 ---- 21 ---- 15 ----- 40
November ----- 0 ----- 2 ----- 1 ----- 1 ------ 4
Total -------- 2 ----- 4 ---- 22 ---- 16 ----- 44
These figures are dynamic so will change quite quickly.
Happy Diwali to everybody and Happy New Year as well.
Wishing you and your families all the best in health wealth and wisdom this new year - and of course a speedy GC as well.
Pending EB I-485 inventory as of October 4 2012 is available http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20C...010_4_2012.pdf
Thanks Kanmani. Finally after 6monthsQuote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Fy2013 started with
EB1---14k pending
EB2WW---15.5K pending
From this one thing is sure EB1&EB2WW are going to consume at least 30K(minimum) in first 4-6 months in FY2013
Thank you Kanmani.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
SOFAD will be no where near 13000 predicted by Murthy after going through this inventory. Gurus any thoughts
Comparing it with last inventory report for EB2I:Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Year : Oct 2012 - Apr 2012
2003 : 43
2004 : 183
2005 : 220
2006 : 256
2007 : 238
2008 : 761
2009 : 770
2010 : 339
I am guessing most of the increase years prior to 2007 is due to porting. Thus, in 6 months since April there have been 940 (43+183+220+256+238) additional cases. Assuming all them are from porting it points to ~2000 Porting cases in a year, which is considerably less than ~4K to 6K numbers that I see in this forum. What am I missing.
For EB2-I
Year ---- Demand -- Inventory -- Difference
Pre 2007 - 1,300 ------ 1,884 --------- 584
2007 ----- 5,100 ------ 5,142 ---------- 42
2008 ---- 15,975 ----- 15,897 --------- (78)
2009 ---- 12,700 ----- 14,199 ------- 1,499
2010 ----- 4,225 ------ 5,251 ------- 1,026
Total -- 39,300 ------ 42,373 ------- 3,073
EB2 WW for June 2012 was 2,698!!! After June no one could file. So, if the trend continues for EB2 WW then we can expect ~40K (2700*15) applications that will be filed by Oct 2013. Assuming its takes 3 months to approve USCIS will approve ~32.5 K applications. So, I doubt EB2 WW will yield anything. It will all boil down to other categories but I doubt we will see 13K. Moreover, taking porting into account we will be lucky to get past 2007 by Sep 2013.Quote:
Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000
Spec, based on 485-pending inventory(14k) and trackitt approvals(61) for EB1 so far in FY2013 what is your projection for EB1 usage this year.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I know it is too early to estimate, but wanted to know your rough estimate EB1 is going to use this year based on the data we have now.
openaccount,Quote:
Originally Posted by openaccount
In truth, I don't find the USCIS Inventory numbers very useful for EB1. They are slightly lower, but in the same ball park as the last two Inventories.
I'd like to see the actual EB1 figures for last year to make my mind up.
Currently I am still using the old I-140 EB1 figures for Receipts, Approvals and Denials for 2010 and part of 2011 from July 2011 as the basis for estimating EB1. Nothing has been published since then and approvals are now beyond the time frame they would have covered.
On the basis that EB1 Receipt numbers have not reduced (which is probably likely) and Approval/Denial ratios have remained the same for each of EB1A, EB1B and EB1C, then I am working on a best case figure of 35k for my calculations.
The EB2-WW figures make it comparatively less likely that they will contribute to spillover and it is not a 100% bet that EB2-WW will not use some of any available spillover from EB1.
EB4 is a dark horse - again, I would like to see last year's actual figures.
I think we can write off EB5 as a source of spillover this year.
At this point, it is difficult to see EB2-IC getting more than the 13k mentioned by CO as a best case.
Thanks Spec.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
With 3-5K SO Eb2I would barely cross Aug2007 in 2013, it might end at April2007 in Fy2013(coincidentally FY2011 started with Apr2007).
Can someone please clarify how to read the inventory data. Do the increase in the applications for the years before 2007 which are porting applications from the last inventory include all months from May to October or are they only from May 3rd to the end of May when dates became U. So for example is the increase from ~ 200 applications in the last inventory for 2004 to 450 now reflect all applications (interfiling letters) from May to october? Also are these all applications pending or only primary applicant applications?
Hi Openaccount, Spec is talking about 13K SO. Why are you considering only 3-5K SO?Quote:
Originally Posted by openaccount
FY 2012 started at Apr 2007 and finished with U. Also with 3-5K SO and 2800 of quota I dont think it will end at Apr 2007. Q and other Gurus who have done number crunching have been maintaining it will be much later than that and into 2008, I hope that prediction turns true. Remember till Apr 2007 was already cleared in 2011. And in 2013 all SO will be first used by India as China will move with their own quota.Quote:
Originally Posted by openaccount
DonDron,Quote:
Originally Posted by DonDron
I was talking about CO's best case of 13k in total (SOFAD) for EB2-IC - not spillover of 13k.
That translates to 7.4k spillover.
Ok. Still better than 3-5k. So best case scenario (and with straight assumptions) comes down to early 2008 for EB2-I. Which is what CO had said. So nothing new I am saying I guess.
Friends - November donations made to Red Cross towards victims of Sandy. Thread updated - http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...=3382#post3382
The June peak for EB2 Worldwide coincides with the last month before it retrogressed. I think what happened is a lot of applicants/lawyers moved quickly on NIW applications to make sure they got in before retrogression. This should even out going forward. The current PERM trends do not support such a high level of EB2-WW going forward, and there aren't that many NIW cases either.
Hello folks,
The prospects for hiring seem to be duller than last year (at least at this point in time) with the fiscal cliff looming on one side and obamacare/divided government etc on the other side.
Do you think there is a possibility that the amount of Spill Over to EB2I can be greater than anticipated if hiring slows down because of the aformentioned factors?
Thanks
Thanks Kanmani. Header Updated with my take on 2013 predictions.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Can we believe in the inventory figures? It shows increases for the years 2008 - 2010 from the may figures. Hows that possible when dates were not current. Another reason is it shows an increase in pre 2007 applications the porting applications by about 900 since may. If thats true then from May to October porting has been 900 which if you annualized it would be around 2000 way below reality. Spec or others any insight into this? Do you think we can believe the Eb2 I numbers
I'm not sure why you think that wouldn't happen.Quote:
Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000
As of May 3, 2012 ( the Inventory Date), the period when the Cut Off Dates had been at 01MAY10 had only just finished (3 days). USCIS certainly would not have processed all the cases at that time. I would be more surprised by how little the 2008-2010 figures have risen, given USCIS seem incapable of doing anything remotely real time.
There was then a further month (all of May) when the Cut Off Dates were at 15AUG07 before dates became Unavailable.
Yes but what abt the porting number. The increase in 900 captures all the months from May to October right since people would have still sent interfile letters to USCIS and they must have added that to the EB2I QueueQuote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
When you notice Jan inventory published in February captured just 10% of January filers . Whenever doors are open for filing they take time to add or delete the inventory numbers. Porting is even more difficult to bring it in to the inventory on time.Quote:
Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000
Those 900 approx applicants i guess might have filed between may to june 1st (excluded in the may inventory)
Bhagwat, is there any chance you misunderstood reading the inventory ? 2006 column jan to dec rows represents the Priority dates of the applicants falling on that particular months . If you are correct then your question is confusing.
agreed about porting. But its difficult to add porting cases when dates are current and they are closed. Now the dates were U hence any porting case would have been added correctly. Most who sent an interfile letter between end of may and october 4 would/should have made it to the inventory since those cases were not acted upon and closedQuote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
The cut off date was 15 Aug 2007 in the month of May'12. Why do you think those cases were added between june to october?
I am not saying they were added between june and oct. i am saying people with pd < 2007 who would have got their 140s approved when dates were U would have sent interfile letters. and USCIS must have added those cases to the inventory.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Below is a rough (and conservative) estimate for spillover from EB1 based on the inventory data.
1. For EB1 cases, as we all know, either I140 and I485 can be filed concurrently or separately. From Trackitt it appears that about 60% (+/- 3%) of the cases are filed concurrently (combined across EB1-A, B and C categories. Separately the ratios vary and are around 80% for EB1-C and 32% for EB1-A with EB1-B in the middle).
2. Let us say all the cases that the inventory shows under PD of July and August 2012 are concurrent cases (very likely). The total is 3304 cases with average of 1652 cases per month. These then represent 60% of the cases filed in these two months (the rest of the cases filed in these two months will be under older PDs). So a total of 2753 cases (1652 / 0.6) per month are being filed under EB1 on average. There shouldn't have been a lot of approvals for concurrent cases filed in July/August 2012 by the time inventory was published in October 2012.
3. If 12 months worth of applications are approved every year then this gives a total usage of 33K (2753 times 12) for EB1 leaving a spillover of 7K from EB1.
Overall the calculation is conservative, spillover should be higher. Any thoughts by others ?
Thanks for the link Kanmani.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
I think they were added in the month of may itself. Somebody with real time experience in porting might clear your doubts.Quote:
Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000
sbhagwat2000,Quote:
Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000
I'm going to use Ron Gotcher's terms here, because I know you have been there.
USICIS can INTERFILE all they want, as that only means consolidating the A-file with the information and papers.
USCIS CANNOT SUBSTITUTE the basis of the pending I-485 from EB3 to EB2 until the PD FOR EB2 IS CURRENT.
Until substitution is done, the case will not show in the EB2 Inventory, because it is not an EB2 I-485 case. Nor will it show in the Demand Data, since a visa cannot be requested until substitution has happened.
The backlog of cases pre 2007 is only indicative of a rising number of porting cases in general in the Inventories. 1,884 in October 2012 - 1,196 in May 2012 - 1,610 in January 2012.
It is not indicative of 4 months worth of total porting. It can only appear as the Cut Off Date moves forward and very little will have been added at the date of the Inventory.
I suspect there are going to be 2 camps. Those that believe the above and those that don't.
It is not worth further discussion.
Q - Great to see that you are still maintaining your original projection. Those kind of projections have become very rare these days . There is so much conservativeness on this blog these days that people have almost forgotten other possibilities. Eventually what ever is going to happen till end of FY 2013 will happen and no one knows exactly how things will pan out so reminding people of other possibilities was very important. Your post does exactly that. Thank you!Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Q - does your analysis consider usage during to EB2ROW not being current and porting? the way i read it, it appeared that it was just current year usage.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Viz - EB2ROW not being current - yes. But EB2ROW porting - only a swag. I need to look into it more. I do think there is signficant porting in ROW from 3 to 2.
Spec - if you are reading - I think that is the reason behind huge difference between PERM approvals and actual consumption for EB2ROW. If you remember we discussed this a few months back. I think we need to establish how much porting is in ROW. That will probably help us understand that gap.
Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I think vizcard probably meant porting in general, rather than specifically EB2-WW porting.
GhostWriter started the subject of the difference between PERM figures and actual approvals. I have discussed it with him. Probably he is the best person to give a view on the subject. NIW is certainly a factor.
As to EB2-WW porting - I think it is probably 2-3k but there's a lot going on with EB2-WW.
Q, the gap between expected applications from PERM and actual approvals for EB2-WW is quite large as you are saying.
See this link
Over last four years we have on average 20% approvals not accounted by PERM (6.6K / 32K)
Over last two years we have on average 27% approvals not accounted by PERM (9.5K / 34K)
Spec points to the EB2-NIW category to explain a big chunk of this gap. My initial guess was why would anyone in EB2-WW apply in EB2-NIW as EB2-WW is always current and it only saves a few months of PERM processing and EB2-NIW has its own hassles. But Trackitt does show high usage of EB2-NIW for ROW. It roughly shows 15% (+/- 4%) of total EB2-WW usage (checked for PDs 2010 and 2011).
Probably EB2-NIW category is used a lot by foreign physicians serving in under-served medical areas or other researchers.
Accounting for EB2-NIW leaves room for 5-10% (1.7K - 3.4K ) of porting in EB2-WW.
The annual visa report does not show actual green cards issued under EB2-NIW separately so it seems there is no other way to verify besides Trackitt estimate for now. I am also puzzled by the recent Murthy article that can be interpreted to suggest high porting in EB2-WW.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk