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Thank you Bieber, Casantino. Glad this thread is helpful :-)
Happy Diwali to all !! For those who may not know - Diwali is an Indian festival that celebrates light which symbolizes hope. Also a new Vikram Samvat i.e. Hindu new year starts during Diwali. Wishing all of you Happy diwali and a very happy new prosperous year!!
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Originally Posted by bieber
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Originally Posted by casantino
Thanks Q for starting this blog. Your input and analysis are valuable. I will not ask ke mera number kab aayega :)-
Dec Visa Bulletin is out.
Update for the future months from the bulletin:
Employment Second:
India: no movement
This figure now seems to be confirmed by the VO.
This document was published today http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Web_...cal_Limits.pdf
It was authored by oppenheim (presumably Charles Oppenheim).
However unexpected, it is not good news, since extra visa numbers from FB make such a big difference.
Also published today was the update to the NVC figures as at November 1, 2010.
It can be found here : http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Web_...cal_Limits.pdf
http://www.usvisainfo.com/content/view/192/31/
"This clearly requires an easy legislative fix. For example, if unused numbers for the past ten years were recapture, the EB2 India line would be vastly decreased."
EASY ?? is it really easy ?
Fellow GC seekers ... please submit the following petition to your congressmen:
http://www.petition2congress.com/2/3284/
This would help us all.
PS: I inserted one line in the petition and that was to pass the Visa Recapture bill.
Thanks
casantino, thanks. I signed it and certainly recommend others to do the same.Quote:
Originally Posted by casantino
You Guys are doing a Great Job! This is my first post after joining this blog. My Priority date is Feb 14,2007 EB2. When do you guys think it will get current any chances in 2011?
soulgaboy, welcome to forum. Pls refer to the first post in the thread. Your chances look very good.Quote:
Originally Posted by soulgaboy
Q,
do you think it's possible that DOS moves cutoff dates before july 2012? for EB2I
it looks like by end of fy2012, the entire backlog till 2007 will be cleared, what is ur estimation when they start accepting new cases
Bieber, as far as we can see the big movement will always happen between jun-sep i.e. Q4. There is a possibility that in 2011 itself 2007 may get cleared. But the chances are less.
When 2007 current backlog comes close to being cleared, then USCIS can make 2 way movememnt. 1) Make it current for a month and then fall back. 2) Make a 6-12 month movement into 2008.
#1 allows all applicants waiting to file 485 to enjoy benefits of EAD and allows uSCIS to have a good large inventory to start working on again.
#2 allows USCIS to keep working on enough applications to exhaust EB2I quota.
In eithercase the decision will be a political and policy one. Unless immigration groups make noise #2 is more probable unfortunately in the current economic scenario.
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Originally Posted by bieber
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I'm not sure I agree with that analysis.
USCIS have no influence on how the Cut Off dates are set.
That is the prerogative of the Dept of State through the Visa Office.
DOS couldn't care less about USCIS finances and it would violate their mandate if they moved the dates too far.
The VO is charged with ensuring that the yearly allocations are fully used, but not exceeded.
How they move the Cut Off dates when the current backlog is cleared is going to depend when it is necessary and how much demand they need to just use up the quota.
If it is towards the end of the year (towards spillover season), then each month of forward movement yields approx 2k visas for India and China, so if they needed 4k, only 2 months are needed.
If the backlog clears when spillover is not a concern, then the 7% limits are in place at around 250 visas a month per Country. In that case, the Cut Off dates need only advance a week or so to stimulate sufficient demand. In fact they may not need to move them at all due to PWMB and Porting applications.
To do anything else would be, as you pointed out, a political decision.
After what happened in July 2007, I don't think #1 is even a possibility, unless DOS are given specific Congressional authority to do so.
#2 looks unlikely as well, since the VO do not need a 6-12 month advance to stimulate the required demand. Again it would need specific authority to do so IMHO.
Sorry .... I meant DOS moving dates.
Regarding the movement .... the USCIS hasn't achieved the sofistication where they will be able to move dates by a few weeks every month. Rather historically they have been moving dates in big leaps.
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Originally Posted by Spectator
Q & Spectator
number of petitions has comedown drastically due to economy, mostly starting 2008 (official recession began in Dec2007, so this may be the only yardstick they have).
DOS can do anything, i admit that, but on what basis they decide the cutoff date once backlog is cleared. isn't it more practical to accept all the applications and then start setting the cutoff dates?
just for example, if DOS moves dates to Dec2007 expecting enough applications to fill the spillover and for some reason there are not enough applications, the visas will go to EB3 when EB2 is not current and they may get sued or something
i know this is not practical, but theoritically this is totally possible case.
Thanks Q, about EB3-I I believe that the 3 weeks of movement seen is slightly disappointing because 700 visas have been infused in the system and the Jan - Mar inventory demand in 2002 is actually low, the demand is much higher in the later months. Also the pre 2002 demand has been stable since the last couple of months at 8250. This would indicate that the Eb3-I dependant filing is high for pre 2002 and also that folks from 2002 are not porting. However looking at the Eb2-I demand I agree with the porting range of 4-6K. Hopefully we will see big movement in Jul - Sep 2011.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Q & Spectator agree with both of you. However likely the tipping point will come in 2012 and not 2011 when both EB2 I / C and also EB3 ROW will be current. Looks like there won't be enough numbers this year to clear the entire backlog till Jul 2007 unless something special happens but we may come quite close to it. Iam also waiting for that day so that atleast file for 485. There was some talk of developing a system within USCIS - DOS to have movement based on I140 filings any news on that?Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Bieber
What you say is correct and it is not an insignificant possibility. DOS / USCIS are capable of that kind of folly. So lets cross the fingers and hope that they move dates at least beyond mid 2008 by Sep 11.
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Originally Posted by bieber
I agree that Jul 2007 wont be reached by Sep 11. My guess is it will barely reach Mar 07. However, I do think they may actually want to have at least one year quota on hand to exhaust even 3K EB2I quota. I think thats how inefficient they are.
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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Teddy,Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
I agree that the end of FY2012 looks like it wil be the critical time. I am not as optimistic as you - I think this is when the current backlogs will be either just exhausted or approaching exhaustion for both EB2 and EB3-ROW.
I prefer to use that terminology, because it isn't the same as Current.
I still can't subscribe to the theory that DOS will have to do anything amazing regarding forward movement of the Cut Off dates to cope with this.
Firstly, an element of forecasting and prediction is already part of the VO modus operandi. If it weren't, EB1 I&C would have to have had Cut Off dates established in recent years. By looking at current trends and past history, the VO have never done so, because they have forecast that spill up from EB5 will be sufficient to cover the demand.
Secondly, passing August 2007 is not an unexpected event. I am sure planning for this event has already started.
At the simplest level, DOS knows with some certainty the number of cases post August 2007 that are awaiting CP. They also know the historic CP:AOS ratio for each Country category. Even in the absence of any information from USCIS, they can set an approximate Cut Off date, even if it has a sizeable buffer built in.
In fact, DOS can move the Cut Off dates relatively early to gauge demand and then adjust them later if necessary. This would allow enough time to process and approve sufficient cases.
In reality, I suspect that USCIS will also be under pressure to complete an inventory of approved I-140s in their system awaiting potential I-485 submission, similar to the I-485 Inventory. Even if this was only partially successful, it would provide sufficient information to DOS to set approximate Cut Off dates beyond August 2007, again probably with a buffer.
The very last thing that DOS will want to be accused of, is creating anything which can be remotely compared to July 2007.
Next to that, they will not want to be accused of wasting visas when there is still demand from EB2.
None of the above necessitates moving Cut Off dates to either Current or well into 2008, unless you believe very large amounts of spillover will be available to deal with post August 2007 cases in FY2012. I would be surprised if it has to move into 2008 at all.
I don't particularly want to be cast as the doom sayer. I actually agree with most that you say. My feelings are based on a very conservative position, which you have stated you don't want to assume yet. Thus we are coming from two different ends of the same line. Possibly we will meet in the middle eventually.
I think that contrary positions often stimulate the best discussions. I certainly hope so.
My Coments Inline, really appreciate your politeness.
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Originally Posted by Spectator
Teddy, somebody with a PD of Jul 07 is going to get a GC by Sep 12. The question of visa date being current so that you can file 485 could be in 2011 or 2012. But the visas are going to be there for you to get your GC.
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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Thanks Q, I agree with you that 2012 is the most likely year of getting GC with a PD of Jul 2007. In 2011 there may be a chance to get EAD / AP but IMHO even that seems less to me as all calculations just take us to Mar - Apr 2007, Jul 2007 is 10K numbers far from that and USCIS-DOS will not go with that big a buffer. However the real question is how they would like to plan for next year assuming the economy and filings stay in the same range. If the dates are not opened up then for 9 months we will hardly have any movement and the chance for 485 filing will come only in Jul - Sep 2012 and if they are able to even associate a cap number with the case then GC will also come by the same year, however if they fail to associate a cap number that may mean another year of wait for GC. However for folks like me getting EAD / AP is a big thing as it helps to get out of the H1B loop which is getting very difficult especially for those of us who work for consulting companies. My H1b expires in Sep 2012 I hope even in the most pessimistic scenario I get EAD / AP by then. However lets all hope for bigger movement. The end of 2011 and 2012 will be interesting the following possibilities are there a) dates made literally current (less likely, I would really like it to happen though) b) Controlled forward movement (Likely, I agree with our good friend Spectator, they may open the gate to push forward a year and retrogress or something calculated based on I140 filing there were some reports on that) c) Dates not being opened up for EB2 I/C and numbers going to EB3 ROW (I believe that this may not happen but cannot be ruled out).Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Teddy, if #3 were to be avoided then it is imperative that USCIS moves the date beyond Jul-07 or even into 2008 for EB2I at least 6 months prior to Sep 12. That's how much typically would suffice for normal 485 processing. Right?
So if the date doesn't move to Jul-07 by Mar 12 then EB2 visas will be wasted (and moved to EB3).
Note: - Typo said 2011 earlier on. Corrected to 2012.
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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Lets refine it a bit I guess we are both saying the same thing.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
- The chances of the dates reaching Jul 2007 on the strength of SOFAD are less not impossible, maybe less than 10% chances. So in 2011 the chances of wastage are minimal even if they don't move the dates they may still have a buffer of 5K which is good enough to avoid any wastage. However huge fall in EB1 or FB spillover can still accelerate this to Sep 2011 so it cannot be ruled out.
- I fully agree with you the dates must be moved significantly forward prior to Sep 2012 atleast 6 months to a year in advance so that the rule and INA is honored as the numbers go to EB2 I/C rather than EB3 ROW. Numbers will go to EB3 ROW if the gate is opened at the 11th hour I hope DOS plans for that.
- It may be really prudent to have an intake of say 30K EB2 I/C China applications in Sep 2011 itself it does not break the line in anyway those whose dates are earlier and preadjudicated will still get approved first and USCIS / DOS have a good pipeline to work on. You are right this point will be either in late 2007 or early 2008 in terms of PD.
- I believe the big issue is the quarterly spillover not happening and all action for EB2 I/C being virtually limited to the last quarter this is what will make things haphazard.
I think we are in synch. Funny you didn't notice the typo :-) Earlier I said 2011. I meant 2012!
In nutshell I believe the date movement must happen before March 2012 and that too at least until Jul 07 or even into 2008.
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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Thanks for the comment. Politeness costs nothing and lack of it is usually inexcusable.Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Not agreeing, or holding a differing position doesn't need to alter that.
I am sure your PD will be Current by the end of FY2012. I admire your stoicism and general good humour throughout an extremely difficult time.
I thought it might be worth expanding on my position to solicit some comment and so that you understand it.
We all agree that EB1 and EB2-ROW hold the key to the amount of SOFAD, as well as FB spillover which is sadly lacking this year.
EB1
Historically, this category has always held up reasonably well and there has been a trend towards increasing numbers of approvals in this Category.
For EB1A and EB1B at least, I think this is fairly recession proof. Even in a recession, there is still a demand for these people.
If any subcategory were to be hit, it would probably be EB1C. This could be significant, since EB1C has made up c. 60% of EB1 approvals in recent years. I don't think it would make much difference to the Fortune 500 type of Company, but I am not sure about the dynamics involving the Consultancy industry and how Companies such as WiPro, TCS etc use this category.
The evidence we have, suggests that EB1 held up very well last FY. If EB1C approvals drop, I think some of that slack will be taken up by increased EB1A and EB1B approvals.
As you alluded to, Trackitt as a tool seems to have lost some of its value for analysing EB1.
It never covered many EB1 applications - judged against the Primary applicant, 0.68% in FY2008, 1.24% in FY2009 and around 0.86% in FY2010.
With such small percentages and the fact that they have varied wildly it becomes very difficult to equate Trackitt approvals to total approvals during the FY.
It was also noticeable last FY that the number of EB1C approvals on Trackitt dropped dramatically. That might have reflected reality, but given that EB1C candidates were getting a lot of flak on the forum, it may also have just reflected fewer people adding their cases. The answer to that question will come with the publication of the Visa Statistics for FY2010 and the DHS Yearbook of Immigration Statistics.
EB2-ROW
Trackitt ratios have remained fairly consistent for this group at 2.03% in FY2008, 2.19% in FY2009 and probably the same again FY2010.
For FY2010, at around 24-25k ROW approvals, spill across looks like 6-7k, with another 3k from the unused allocations for Mexico and Philippines, giving a combined total of 9-10k.
Whilst I think that ROW approvals might drop a bit, it seems too much of a stretch that combined ROW/M/P approvals would drop from 27-28k to just 13k.
I am aware of the drop in PERM approvals in recent years and the question of backlog reduction that may have been happening in previous years. I don't pretend to have a very good understanding of these factors.
I think the increased speed of PERM approval will offset some of this.
I also have a nagging doubt about the level of backlog reduction there was last year. It comes about through looking at the I-140 figures from the USCIS dashboard.
The figures I have for FY2008 are incomplete, but the totals for the final quarter are 18,109 receipts and 44,620 completions, suggesting that backlog reduction was in progress.
In FY2009, USCIS received 57,010 I-140 receipts, whilst completing 155,482.
That suggests that there was backlog reduction.
In FY2010, USCIS received 77,280 I-140 receipts, whilst completing 73,705.
That is not only a huge increase of I-140 receipts on FY2009, but it also suggests that there was no or little backlog reduction.
As an aside, from the limited data it looks like FY2009 was low and that the full FY2008 might have been similar to FY2010 for receipt numbers. Impossible to say.
I am therefore looking at SOFAD as more in the 25k to low 30k range, rather than the 37k that has been mentioned.
I wonder what you guys think.