EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

Please move to Relevant thread after answered. I have posted this in RFE thread but no traction there.


Hello All,

not sure if they continue to issue Visa's still last date.
I received bunch of emails (as well as case status updates on website) that my I485 is approved, card production stage etc on 29 th October and another one today (3 nov)
my PD is july 3 - 2008.
However there is no update on the status of my wife and daughter. I am primary applicant and they both are dependents.
their status remained same as "RFE response Review" for over two months.

since the dates are retrogressed, i was worried they will not get it this year.
is that a possibility? my understanding was that they process family together.
spoke to L2, he has no clue.


Thanks
Satya

Oct 3, 2014 Inventory.
http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/f..._2014_10_3.pdf

So, EB2-I still has about 20K pending prior to May 1, 2010. Very interesting. Spillover was less than anticipated in FY 14?

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Thanks for your understanding.

SO estimation is anywhere between 9k-13k.
Oct 2013 Oct 2014 Diff Std Allocation Est. SO
EB2-I 32539 20263 12276 2802 9474
EB3-I 34336 29422 4914 2802 2112

Demand reduced by 236 for PD between May 2009 and May 2010 for EB-2I
So estimated SO based on the numbers is 9238. Ofcourse this includes new filers/porters who filed between July-Sep 14 (Assuming around 3000-4000)
So adding this to 9238 will give anywhere between 12k-13k.
People may differ on the amount of new filers/porters so the final number may vary.

For EB3-I demand reduced by 2112 excluding the std allocation. There may be new filers or USCIS found files out of nowhere :) (I see in some months of 2003, no of cases increased) , looks like porting is between 3k-4k for the FY.

I have not included the per country allocation based on FB spillover allocation per category per country.

Gurus please opine.

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Originally Posted by civilengineer

Oct 3, 2014 Inventory.
http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/f..._2014_10_3.pdf

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Thanks Civilengineer.

Spec,

What do you make out of the inventory? I do see 3k+ pending cases in 2008. Can we assume that this inventory is sort of "interim" and the pending cases would further reduce in the next issue (whenever that is)

Iatiam

The latest inventory show over 20000 for EB2 before May 2010. Is it possible that these numbers will be lower by the next inventory? This is because the recent approvals may not figure into this data yet.

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Originally Posted by civilengineer

Oct 3, 2014 Inventory.
http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/f..._2014_10_3.pdf

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Thanks civilengineer!

Spec - have you come across anything which tells us about amount of spillover EB could be getting from FB? (if any at all?)

So between the inventory published in July and Oct, there are no major surprises except EB2ROW where the demand is a bit higher than one would've expected.

It looks like the inventory is as of 10/3. Except October approvals it is pretty clear inventory. In October this year quota might be used. If this is true what could be the final inventory pending as of now?

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Originally Posted by iatiam

Thanks Civilengineer.

Spec,

What do you make out of the inventory? I do see 3k+ pending cases in 2008. Can we assume that this inventory is sort of "interim" and the pending cases would further reduce in the next issue (whenever that is)

Iatiam

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I'm not around for a few days.

I'll comment next week when I'm back and have had a chance to look at the new Inventory figures.

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Originally Posted by vyruss

The latest inventory show over 20000 for EB2 before May 2010. Is it possible that these numbers will be lower by the next inventory? This is because the recent approvals may not figure into this data yet.

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Nope. The approvals starting this October are from FY 15 numbers. The max it could have is 2800. And, we have about 3K-4K porting every year. The new porting will take care of the approvals in Oct 14. So, in 2015 summer, inventory will be about the same. 20K pending inventory - 2.8K approvals in Oct + 3K porting for 9 months = 20K approx in summer of 2015. Oct 2014 approvals won't make any dent to pending inventory come summer.

Missed the boat by just two months this year, I am still behind 9000 people in the queue guys, intimidating! I hate you all.

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

Missed the boat by just two months this year, I am still behind 9000 people in the queue guys, intimidating! I hate you all.

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I know it is frustrating. The end never seems to be in sight...does it!

However with everything said and done, I have high confidence your GC will come by Sept 2015. 9000 is not a bad number for EB2I. And the spillover will be > 0. As spec had said, EB2I movement is too sensitive to a slight variation in processing. A 5K variation here and there can push the EB2I date and open the gate for many deserving and long awaiting people.

December 2014 Visa bulletin is out guys.............http://travel.state.gov/content/visa...mber-2014.html

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

Missed the boat by just two months this year, I am still behind 9000 people in the queue guys, intimidating! I hate you all.

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:(
Well if it makes you feel any better.. I hate you too. ;)
I don't even have an EAD. I can't switch jobs. Been waiting for ever(feels like it) and now you hate me.. :) why do you hate me? :eek:

Hang in there.

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

.... However, if you change the job using AC21, make sure you are getting the salary in PERM.

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AC 21 Employers are not bound by PERM wage offer. The job must be same or similar, but the new AC 21 employers are not required to pay PERM wages, nor even prove that they can pay the wages.

That is my understanding. Please correct me if I am wrong.

Kanmani/Spec - Agree/Disagree? This question might become material for me in coming days - so I am very interested in your opinions. P

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Originally Posted by nbk1976

AC 21 Employers are not bound by PERM wage offer. The job must be same or similar, but the new AC 21 employers are not required to pay PERM wages, nor even prove that they can pay the wages.

That is my understanding. Please correct me if I am wrong.

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Originally Posted by imdeng

Kanmani/Spec - Agree/Disagree? This question might become material for me in coming days - so I am very interested in your opinions. P

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imdeng,

Honestly speaking I didn't want to answer this question, thought of writing you a pm, later I ended up writing here what I think.

AC21 rules are generally the interpretations of the law used practically with the directions of various memos. As I dig deeper in to the practices of adjudicators, I don't really expect them having enlightened with all those information spread over the memos. What they do is simply shoot an RFE, you can't question them with a quote from the memo really, you must pay the attorney and reply them.

The pay difference of few thousands are negligible, but huge wage difference on the lower end might trigger a doubt, Adjudicators have every right to question us, additionally those memos guides them to make sure the job offer is genuine or not.

So I am going to explain hereafter on my point of view. Myself changing jobs using AC21 portability option, would try as possible I can to make sure, I never get an RFE. I know very well that offered wage is not the criteria there, same or similar job is the key point. I should make sure that the wage offered should not peep in the picture to send me an RFE. Would they send me an RFE? Why not? I can't just hold to one memo as an authority to end up in a RFE situation, when I am that close to getting an GC.

There are situations and successful cases who have changed jobs with a lower salary. It is based on how much comfortable you are on facing situations.

That's all I have. I am not really comfortable discussing further. I came up with the above is just for your sake. Good luck!

Thanks Kanmani. Appreciate your thoughts.

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Originally Posted by nbk1976

AC 21 Employers are not bound by PERM wage offer. The job must be same or similar, but the new AC 21 employers are not required to pay PERM wages, nor even prove that they can pay the wages.

That is my understanding. Please correct me if I am wrong.

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That may be so. But "same or similar" is a vague concept and you cannot rule out an adjudicator arguing it should transfer to your salary too. My criteria for "same or similar" contains fulfilling 3 things that I made sure held true for my own self when I switched jobs.

1) Similarity: The type of job as described by the labor code in the PERM should be similar. This is the most important requirement. That means the answer to the question: "had this job been advertized, what would the labor code be?" should be same or similar labor code.

2) Salary: Of course, geographic area matters. If you went from Northern California/NYC to midwest/south, you will probably take a large salary reduction. There are always extraneous circumstances. However, once you factor out the cost of living adjustment etc., you better make sure you keep earning a similar wage. If your salary drops too much, it can arouse a suspicion on your original petition itself, and it might end up opening lots of cans of worms.

3) Job requirements: if your original petition was EB2 based, your new job should require the same qualifications as that of an EB2 job (bachelors+5 years, or masters). Again, this may not be stated explicitly anywhere in the AC21 memo, but a tough adjudicator will not buy that the job falls in the "same or similar category" unless this was satisfied.

AC21 Same or similar from USCIS itself.

http://www.uscis.gov/news/questions-...-act-2000-ac21

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Q2. How does USCIS determine what qualifies as a same or similar occupational classification?
A2. USCIS generally makes a determination as to whether one job is in the “same or similar” occupational classification as another by referring to the DOL’s SOC system. USCIS officers also consider multiple factors to conclude if two jobs are considered to be in similar occupational classifications for porting purposes (see above question for definition of “porting”). USCIS officers may compare factors including, but not limited to:


The job duties of both positions
The SOC code from the Immigrant Petition for Alien Worker (Form I-140) and the appropriate SOC code for the new position
The wages associated with each position
USCIS officers will view the totality of the circumstances to determine if the two jobs are the same or similar for porting purposes.

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Q4. The December 27, 2005 AC21 Memo states that a discrepancy between the wages of two jobs may be used to decide if the two positions are the same or similar, but the memo also states that a difference in the wages of the two jobs cannot be used as the sole basis for denial in adjustment of status portability cases. Can USCIS provide further explanation on how wages are used to determine whether two jobs are in the same or similar occupational classification?
A4. Section I, Question 3 from the December 27, 2005 AC21 Memo provides USCIS officers with the flexibility to consider a “substantial discrepancy” in the wages offered in two positions to assist them in deciding if the two jobs are in the same or a similar occupational classification. A “substantial discrepancy” in the wages of the two jobs may be a contributing factor in a denial when the evidence is considered in its totality. However, a USCIS officer should not deny a case solely because a second position pays more or less than the original.


Section 1, Question 5 from the December 27, 2005 AC21 Memo references a “difference” in the wages to inform both USCIS officers and the public that a difference in wages should not be used as the sole basis for a denial. This means there can be an allowance for normal raises that occur through the passage of time to account for inflation and other factors such as higher rates of pay in different metropolitan locations.

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Hi,

My suggestion is talk to your local congressman or senator. Create a request through them.

Then I think you are good that's what I did it.

Thanks,
Shreya

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Originally Posted by sp2008

Please move to Relevant thread after answered. I have posted this in RFE thread but no traction there.


Hello All,

not sure if they continue to issue Visa's still last date.
I received bunch of emails (as well as case status updates on website) that my I485 is approved, card production stage etc on 29 th October and another one today (3 nov)
my PD is july 3 - 2008.
However there is no update on the status of my wife and daughter. I am primary applicant and they both are dependents.
their status remained same as "RFE response Review" for over two months.

since the dates are retrogressed, i was worried they will not get it this year.
is that a possibility? my understanding was that they process family together.
spoke to L2, he has no clue.


Thanks
Satya

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Thank you Shreya,

did you work for you?

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Originally Posted by shreyasai2004

Hi,

My suggestion is talk to your local congressman or senator. Create a request through them.

Then I think you are good that's what I did it.

Thanks,
Shreya

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It worked for me and one of my friend also.

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Originally Posted by sp2008

Thank you Shreya,

did you work for you?

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